Group 1 - International gold prices have been rising, prompting both domestic and foreign banks to launch gold-linked structured deposit products, which appeal to conservative investors due to their "capital protection" and yield flexibility [2] - Several banks have introduced related products since the beginning of 2026, with potential maximum annual yields reaching 4.5% [2] - Foreign banks' products have high entry thresholds and longer terms, such as DBS Bank requiring a minimum investment of $10,000 for a 12-month term, while HSBC China requires $20,000 for a 3-year term, and Standard Chartered Bank has a minimum subscription of $75,000 for an 18-month term [2] Group 2 - In contrast, domestic banks offer more accessible products with shorter terms and lower risks, with institutions like Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, and China Merchants Bank having minimum investment amounts generally around $1,000 and terms ranging from 7 to 90 days [2] - Experts from the Beijing Wealth Management Industry Association indicate that the current trend of de-dollarization and geopolitical fluctuations are driving demand for gold, which remains strong in the market [2] - Companies are actively participating in the allocation of such products, although investors are advised to choose wisely, as structured deposits, while promising capital protection, have returns linked to market performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's strong statement in early 2026 demands China, India, and Brazil to immediately stop importing oil from Russia, threatening severe sanctions from the U.S. if they do not comply. This move aims to reshape global energy flows by targeting major non-Western buyers of Russian oil [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Global Energy Market Impact - If China, India, and Brazil comply with U.S. demands, it could lead to a significant reshuffling of the global energy market, allowing U.S. energy companies to fill the void and strengthen the dollar's dominance in energy transactions [3]. - The U.S. is not only applying political pressure but also deploying military resources in Venezuela to enhance its global energy pricing power and supply chain dominance [3]. - The Trump administration threatens non-compliant countries with tariffs as high as 500%, indicating a shift towards aggressive energy coercion [3]. Group 2: Responses from China, India, and Brazil - China's response to U.S. pressure is firm, emphasizing its commitment to energy security and its established strategic energy cooperation with Russia, which includes long-term supply agreements and infrastructure [1][5]. - India has reduced some oil imports from Russia but continues to rely on Russian oil due to its lower prices, which are crucial for controlling domestic inflation and maintaining low manufacturing costs [5][7]. - Brazil's government is adopting a delaying tactic, neither committing to stop purchasing Russian oil nor expanding its imports, reflecting a desire to navigate the situation without direct confrontation with the U.S. [7][9]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Global Energy Dynamics - The U.S. strategy has evolved from merely isolating Russia to attempting to reshape the global energy order, aiming to eliminate all non-compliant energy flows [9][11]. - The increasing trend of de-dollarization, with countries like China and Russia engaging in local currency settlements, undermines the effectiveness of U.S. financial sanctions [11]. - The emerging consensus among China, India, and Brazil on energy autonomy indicates a shift towards a multipolar energy landscape, where no single country dictates terms [11].

每日经济新闻 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 相关机构表示，美国司法部启动对美联储鲍威尔的刑事调查，引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，料将继 续推动"去美元化"叙事，从而促进对黄金等替代性资产的整体需求。尽管美司法部称这是对美联储大楼 翻修的资金使用问题进行的调查，但鲍威尔于上周日发布的声明称调查他的真正原因在于"美联储没有 按照总统的偏好来制定利率政策"。我们认为，对鲍威尔的调查也是特朗普对他即将提名的下届美联储 的警告，使该人士更有动机配合行政部门的要求，即更大力度的降息以刺激经济。若果真如此，则持有 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by rising gold prices and macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) has risen by 2.69%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Mingpai Jewelry (up 10.08%) and Hunan Silver (up 6.68%) [1] - The current spot gold price has increased by 1%, reaching $4632.67 per ounce, influenced by escalating regional tensions [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 63.58% of the total index, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold among the leaders [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current relationship between China and the U.S. is not a separation but a reconnection, with the strength of the dollar stemming from a collective preference among global holders and the delayed effects of a rebalancing in the supply chain [3] Group 1: Dollar's Strength and Global Dynamics - The dollar's strength is not solely due to the U.S. but is supported by a global network of vested interests, with various industries and markets relying on dollar-denominated transactions [1][4] - The S&P 500 is projected to reach approximately 6845 points by 2025, reflecting a 16% increase, while the Shiller CAPE valuation approaches 39, indicating potential risks of a bubble, yet no one is willing to trigger a collapse [6] - The current economic environment shows a paradox where U.S. debt continues to rise, yet the dollar remains stable, leading to confusion among observers [7] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Mechanisms - The dollar's endurance is attributed to its historical anchoring to oil, which has become a necessity, unlike gold, which requires extraction [8][10] - The integration of China's manufacturing capabilities into the global economy has created a symbiotic relationship where the U.S. prints money to sustain consumption while China provides goods in exchange for dollars [10][12] - The shift in industrial capabilities, with countries like China moving up the value chain, is causing anxiety in the U.S., reminiscent of past economic shifts that disrupted established industries [14] Group 3: Current Trends and Future Implications - The trend of "de-dollarization" is driven by a global instinct for risk aversion, with countries diversifying away from dollar reliance, evidenced by increased gold purchases and currency swaps [19][20] - Despite political rhetoric advocating for decoupling, practical trade relationships continue to thrive, highlighting the complexities of global interdependence [21] - The decline of dollar hegemony is not due to a deliberate overthrow but rather a fundamental shift in economic realities, emphasizing the importance of industrial capabilities and the production of irreplaceable goods [22][24]

截至2026年1月14日，美元指数报99.22，较前一交易日微涨0.03%，日内呈现窄幅震荡态势。具体来 看，今日开盘99.18，盘中最高触及99.25，最低下探99.16，波动幅度相对有限。昨日美元指数表现疲 软，收于98.862，跌幅0.27%，带动欧元对美元汇率升至1.1672，英镑对美元汇率上涨至1.3466。 美国激进的关税政策、创纪录的财政赤字以及对美联储独立性的质疑，动摇了市场对美元币值稳定的信 心。2025年现货黄金价格飙升逾70%，"弃美元、购黄金"的趋势在2026年持续，进一步反映了市场对美 元资产的疑虑。 多家主流机构对2026年美元走势持看空态度，彭博社调查显示美元指数或再下跌约3%。美联储政策转 向、全球利差收窄、增长动能转移及去美元化进程，构成美元下行的核心驱动力，全年汇率中枢大概率 较2025年下移。 美元仍存在多个扰动因素可能引发短期反弹，包括美国经济超预期韧性、通胀韧性带来的政策调整、非 美经济体紧缩力度受限等。美联储对2026年美国实际GDP增速预测已从1.8%上调至2.3%，AI产业繁荣 也可能持续吸引全球资本流入。 市场对美联储2026年宽松政策的预期持续发酵，花旗、摩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong trend in gold prices is expected to continue in the medium to long term, but significant short-term volatility should be anticipated, especially after reaching historical highs [2][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factor affecting gold investment is the U.S. real interest rates, which historically show an inverse relationship with gold prices. A downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields is likely to support gold prices [3]. - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with annual additions exceeding 1,000 tons since 2022, compared to just over 470 tons annually from 2010 to 2021. This shift reflects concerns over the uncertainty of dollar assets and aims for asset diversification [3]. - Geopolitical events can cause substantial short-term impacts on gold prices, leading to pronounced fluctuations in the market [4]. Group 2: New Pricing Logic for Gold - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves and seeking alternatives to the dollar has become a significant driver for rising gold prices. However, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies in Gold - Gold stocks should not be compared directly with physical gold and gold ETFs, as they are more influenced by stock market fluctuations. For pure investment purposes, gold ETFs are recommended due to their liquidity and direct correlation with gold prices [6]. - Physical gold investments, such as gold bars, are considered more suitable for those looking to invest in tangible assets, while gold jewelry may incur additional design costs [6].

2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.28%报 111.350 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 107.850 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.625 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.330 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 13 日以固定利率、 ...

除了个人投资者，不少上市公司也将黄金挂钩结构性存款纳入了资金配置范围。从近期披露的理财公告 来看，多家企业选择通过此类产品布局黄金，押注金价上行。 外资银行产品风险等级更高 在黄金市场波动，交易风险攀升的环境下，承诺保本的结构性存款仍具有相当的"吸金"优势。开年以 来，已有多家中资、外资银行推出了挂钩黄金的结构性存款。 1月1日，星展银行"星展丰盛理财"推出看涨黄金主题结构性存款，强调"持有到期100%保本"，并可"捕 捉挂钩标的市场收益实现收益增厚"。该产品挂钩黄金美元即期价格，期限12个月，潜在最高年化收益 4%，起投金额1万美元，风险等级为1级。 1月5日，汇丰中国推出的结构性存款则另辟蹊径，并非直接挂钩金价，而是跟踪紫金矿业、纽蒙黄金、 巴里克黄金等金矿企业表现。产品期限3年，票息年化4.5%，触发水平103%，最低年化回报0.1%，起投 金额2万美元，风险等级2级。 渣打银行推出的结构性存款产品，挂钩标的则为SPDR黄金信托。1月7日，该行发布的产品介绍显示， 该产品收益率范围为0%—5.0%（非年化收益），最低认购金额5万元，投资期限18个月。从产品特点 看，该产品是涨跌双赢结构，风险评级3级。 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced significant gains, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index rising by 2.05% as of the report date, and several stocks, including Hunan Silver and Xiyang Co., seeing increases of over 7% [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159871.SZ) opened higher, increasing by 1.84% during the session, with a trading volume exceeding 60 million yuan and a real-time premium rate of 0.09% [1] - The ETF has seen net inflows for 4 out of the last 5 trading days, accumulating nearly 150 million yuan, with a latest circulation size of 640 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The tungsten market has experienced a "violent" surge in January, with tungsten powder prices exceeding 1.1 million yuan per ton and tungsten concentrate reaching 464,000 yuan per standard ton, both hitting historical highs [1] - The main contract for Shanghai tin futures surged by 7%, reaching a new historical peak [1] - Guosheng Securities predicts that by 2026, the non-ferrous metals industry will face increasing supply-demand mismatches and a rising price center [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates that non-ferrous metals will continue to perform strongly, with gold being a core safe-haven asset under the "de-dollarization" pricing logic, and copper and aluminum benefiting from energy transition and supply constraints [2]