美元指数DXY短线下挫超30点，现报98.74，欧元兑美元EUR/USD、英镑兑美元GBP/USD短线走高近50 点。 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index has experienced a short-term decline of approximately 20 points, currently reported at 98.76 [1] - US stock futures have seen a short-term increase, with all three major indices turning positive, and the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.4% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has decreased in the short term, currently reported at 4.501% [1] - Spot gold has risen in the short term, currently priced at $3348.32 per ounce [1]

市场屏息以待将于今晚20:30公布的CPI数据，大摩预测通胀可能意外回落。 美元面临短线下行风险 报告进一步指出，在过去两年中，CPI数据每出现一个标准差的意外下行，美元指数通常在数据发布后 的一小时内下跌约0.4%。 据追风交易台消息，6月10日，摩根士丹利利率策略师Aryaman Singh及其团队发布研报称，互换市场正 在暗示5月CPI数据将意外下行。 报告指出，互换市场定价显示，5月整体CPI同比增长2.4%，低于彭博经济学家普遍预计的2.5%；环比 看，互换市场定价CPI环比增速为0.13%，核心CPI环比增速为0.23%，均低于彭博共识预期的0.2%和 0.3%。 值得注意的是，在过去八次CPI发布中，互换市场成功预测了其中七次的数据走向。 报告补充称，5月CPI数据对于理解关税对核心商品的初步影响将非常关键。如果关税对核心商品的推 动作用比预期更为温和，可能成为5月其它经济数据下降的驱动因素。 按照当前互换市场定价与经济学家预期之间的差距，此次可能出现-0.62个标准差的下行意外。基于历 史规律，这意味着美元指数可能会在数据发布后短期下跌0.3%。 报告指出，关税对价格的影响规模和时机都难以精确 ...

周二（6月10日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.15%，报99.085点，日内交投区间为98.862-99.390点。 彭博美元指数涨0.13%，报1210.98点，日内交投区间为1208.70-1213.53点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant fluctuations in the US dollar index, which has recently fallen below the 99 mark, reaching a three-month low, prompting discussions about changes in the global currency landscape [1][2] - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to various factors, including disappointing US economic data, which has led to a decrease in confidence regarding US economic growth and subsequently weakened the dollar [2][3] - The market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a 78% probability of a rate cut in September, which has diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets and contributed to the dollar's decline [3][4] Group 2 - As the dollar index weakens, non-US currencies have experienced a rebound, with the euro and pound showing significant appreciation against the dollar, reflecting a reassessment of currency values by global investors [4][5] - The fluctuations in the dollar index and the rebound of non-US currencies have profound implications for global financial markets, affecting international trade, investment costs, and capital flows [5][6] - Future trends in the dollar index remain uncertain, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and various global economic factors, including geopolitical risks and trade tensions [5][6]

新永安期货市场快讯 XIN YONGAN Futures Express 2025年6月10日星期二 www.yafco.com.hk 六月假期交易休市时间安排： | 交易所 | 品种 | 6.19 | 交易所 | 品种 | 6.2 | 6.27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CME | 农产品 | 休市 | BMD | 所有产品 指数产品 | 休市 正常 | 休市 正常 | | | 生猪、活牛 | 休市 | | | | | | | 利率及债券 | 于20日凌晨01点提前收盘 | | | | | | | 外汇 | 正常 | HKEX | 金属产品 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 指数 | 于20日凌晨01点提前收盘 | | MSCI指数 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 金属 | 于20日凌晨02 点30分提前收盘 | | 货币产品 | 正常 | 正常 | | | | | | 橡胶TSR20 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 能源 | 于20日凌晨02 点30分提前收盘 | | 日经指数 | 正常 | 正常 正常 | | | 可可、咖啡、11号糖 ...

Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is at a critical turning point, with the volatility of the US dollar creating opportunities for other major currencies [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are calling for an enhancement of the euro's international status, indicating a shift in focus towards the European market [1] - Investor allocation strategies are changing, with a growing demand for diversification leading to increased attention on the European market [1] Group 2 - The euro has shown a strong upward trend against the US dollar, breaking the key resistance level of 1.14, with a recent high of 1.1454 on June 4 [3] - Data from the cross-currency basis swap market indicates a rising preference among investors for euro financing, contrasting with the historical trend of paying a premium for US dollar financing [3] - The relatively slow reduction of the ECB's balance sheet provides structural support for the euro, while the comparison of the US long-term budget deficit with Europe's stable net international investment position further strengthens the euro's relative advantage [3] Group 3 - The US dollar is facing multiple pressures, with non-farm payroll data aligning with signs of a slowing economy, which continues to exert pressure on the dollar [4] - The dollar index is under pressure from various factors, prompting investors to reassess their allocation towards dollar assets [4] - The dominance of the dollar as the international reserve currency is being challenged, as the economic size and trade scale of the eurozone provide a competitive foundation for the euro [4]

| 股指期货价差日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 Z0016628 2025年6月10日 叶倩宁 | | 价号 品种 匿新值 历史1年分位数 全历史分位数 较前一日变化 | | IE潮ூ役装 -17.45 1.14 28.60% 24.40% | | 期现价差 IC開现价差 -39.25 -2.58 27.00% 30.70% | | 次月-当月 -35.60 1.80 7.30% 9 30% | | 零月-当月 -65.40 6.60 13.1096 16.60% 元月-景月 -97.80 11.60 15,50% 19.40% | | F跨期价差 李月-次月 -29.80 4.80 14.70% 21.80% | | 远月-次月 -62.20 9.80 27.00% 24.80% | | 远月-李月 -32.40 5,00 32.30% 26.20% | | 次月-当月 -30.60 0.20 6.10% 6.10% -35.20 2.00 13.90% 17.00% 李目-景月 | | 远月-崇月 -34.00 4.20 30.30% 34.30% H跨期价 ...

周二(6月10日)亚市盘中，现货黄金走势偏弱运行，截至发稿报3306.09美元/盎司，跌幅0.56%，今日金价开盘于3327.38美元/盎司，最 高上探3327.59美元/盎司，最低触及3301.54美元/盎司。 四小时图，上周金价走高两次在3397附近受阻走跌，且非农数据后金价下行到趋势线位置收盘，当前金价走势偏低位震荡，形成对四 小时均线向下突破走势，继续加剧四小时均线向下交叉排列，维持四小级别偏空指引参考，走势上暂时维持在低位的窄幅震荡，在前 期的支撑带附近给到反弹的力度和延续度都不算太大，要注意可能出现的震荡修复完成走出二次下跌。小时级别目前K线也是承压短 周期均线维持偏弱运行走势，关注下短线的调整修复情况。今天金价还有继续下跌的空间和需求。 黄金价格现在处于趋势线上交投，趋势线昨日上破后这是首次触及，今日操作思路是依靠此位置去看反弹后再看金价向下去试探这个 趋势线的支撑情况。现在盘面上看，3310是上一波反弹的起点，可以作为一个进场点位去下看，其次是3321这里是下行途中的第一次 反弹起点，可以作为一个短期的压制位参考；下方支撑初步参考昨日低点3293附近，有效跌破后可以下看周评目标3273附近。具 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to macro - factors such as a weaker US dollar and optimistic sentiment from US - China trade negotiations. OPEC + production increased in May, but less than planned. The market is in a strong - side shock trend, suggesting a short - term long - bias approach. Resistance levels are given for WTI, Brent, and SC. Options can use a straddle structure [2]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply has increased, but short - term downside is limited due to downstream demand and geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term observation, 9 - 1 short - spread, and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, but there is support at low levels. Strategies are to focus on the 4600 support and use a short - on - rebound approach, and 9 - 1 short - spread. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to remain low in June, with good supply - demand structure but limited upside due to weak demand. It is expected to trade in a range, and look for 9 - 1 long - spread opportunities. - Short - fiber: Processing fee recovery is limited, and absolute price follows raw materials. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at low levels. - Bottle - chip: Supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and the processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Recent decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, but decreased in Shandong. Demand is supported by alumina. Inventory is accumulating in East China. Hold the 7 - 9 long - spread before price cuts or large - scale warehouse - receipt outflows. - PVC: Short - term is in a shock trend, but long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure will increase in June, and demand is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy [11][16]. Styrene Industry - Short - term styrene may fluctuate, and mid - term pay attention to the bearish opportunity from raw material resonance. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventory has decreased slightly, but supply may increase after plant restart [19][22]. PE and PP Industry - PE: Inventory is accumulating at the beginning of the month, with slight destocking in social inventory. Supply and demand are balanced in June, with limited up - and - down drivers. - PP: New capacity will be put into operation in June - July, and demand is in the off - season. There is a large inventory - accumulation pressure. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [26][27]. Urea Industry - High supply is not matched by demand. Agricultural demand has slightly improved but lacks activity, and industrial demand is weakened by the decline in compound fertilizer production. Future trends depend on export policy and market sentiment. [33] Methanol Industry - Supply is abundant with high domestic production and expected high imports. Demand has increased in MTO but with poor downstream profits. Price should be traded in the 2200 - 2350 range, and pay attention to the transition from implicit to explicit inventory accumulation [35]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose to $67.04/barrel, WTI to $65.35/barrel, and SC to 479.30 yuan/barrel on June 10. Various spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices changed, and their spreads and cracking spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. decreased, and cash flows of some products also declined [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX price decreased, and various PX spreads changed [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices decreased, and its spreads and basis also changed [6]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased, and to - port expectations changed. Supply and demand are expected to be good in June [6]. - **Industry开工率**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of Shandong caustic soda and East China PVC remained stable or changed slightly, and futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [12][13]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed, with PVC operating rate increasing and some profit margins improving [14]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [15][16]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some accumulating and some remaining stable [16]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China pure benzene increased [19]. - **Styrene Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and basis and month - spreads changed [20]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Overseas quotes of styrene increased, and import profits decreased [21]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: Operating rates of some industries in the styrene chain changed, and profits of some products improved significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports and downstream products changed [22]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of PE and PP changed slightly, and their spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of PE and PP enterprises and social inventories increased [26]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [26]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and upstream raw material prices remained stable. Spot prices in different regions decreased [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Agricultural and industrial demands were weak [33]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed, and various spreads and basis also changed [35]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories increased [35]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35].