来源：环球市场播报 北京时间1月9日凌晨，美股周四尾盘涨跌不一。科技股遭到抛售，投资者继续将资金从科技股撤出转而 投入其他板块。 道指涨240.54点，涨幅为0.49%，报49236.62点；纳指跌150.94点，跌幅为0.64%，报23433.33点；标普 500指数跌6.24点，跌幅为0.09%，报6914.69点。 在标普500指数的11个板块中，信息技术板块是唯一出现显著下跌的板块，跌幅约为2%。 备受市场青睐的人工智能明星股英伟达成为投资者减持的对象之一，股价下跌逾2%。另一家人工智能 概念股甲骨文（Oracle）也回落近2%，而iPhone制造商苹果则下跌超过1%，正朝着连续第七个交易日 收跌的方向发展。 尽管如此，美国合众银行资产管理公司高级投资策略总监Rob Haworth认为，科技和人工智能仍将是 2026年的重要主题。但他指出，该交易能否继续成为推动市场上涨的动力，将取决于实际应用场景是否 开始出现，以及这些应用会出现在哪些行业。 他表示："我们在医疗保健领域已看到一些早期迹象。当我们思考机器人技术、保险、诊断等领域时， 所有这类公司都将成为早期受益者。我们认为，真正的增长故事就在这些地方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CBO predicts that the Federal Reserve may implement a slight interest rate cut this year to address the downside risks in the labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Forecast - The CBO indicates that higher tariffs and the tax cuts from the Trump administration are expected to keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target [1] - Current interest rates are in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with an expectation to drop to 3.4% in the fourth quarter and remain at that level until 2028 [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Projections - The unemployment rate is forecasted to decrease to 4.6% this year and further to 4.4% by 2028 [1] - The PCE inflation rate, favored by the Fed, is projected to decline to 2.7% this year and reach 2.1% by 2028 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prestige Economics President Jason Schenker predicts that the US dollar will weaken due to two expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year [1] Group 1 - Schenker has outperformed competitors in Bloomberg's foreign exchange predictions for three consecutive quarters [1] - He anticipates a rebound of the US dollar in the second half of the year as the US economy recovers [1] - Commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, Russian ruble, Mexican peso, and Brazilian real are expected to strengthen this year [1]

特朗普在上一届总统任期内，于2017年11月2日提名现任美联储主席鲍威尔出任这个职位。之后在民主党前总统拜 登任期内，鲍威尔获提名连任，按计划将于2026年5月结束任期。 特朗普（资料图） 特朗普在2025年就任总统后，多次批评鲍威尔降息不及时，并威胁要更换美联储主席。去年11月30日，特朗普表 示，他已经敲定下一任美国联邦储备委员会主席人选，但未透露是谁。有分析指出，无论候选人是谁，特朗普最 看重此人是否对自己忠诚，以实现他要求美联储降息的目的。特朗普12月29日说，他预计2026年1月宣布美联储主 席人选。 更多阅读 央视记者当地时间8日获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，关于美联储主席人选，他"心中已经有了决定"，但他没有透露 最终人选。 特朗普在7日晚表示，"我心里已经有了决定，我还没有和任何人谈过这件事。"当被问及他的首席经济顾问凯文· 哈塞特时，特朗普称"我不想说"，但他形容哈塞特"无疑是我喜欢的人之一"。 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 0.6% after opening, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average later turned positive [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged over 1% after a low opening, with individual stocks like Huya rising over 22%, Bilibili up over 6%, Alibaba increasing over 4%, and Tencent Music and New Oriental both gaining over 2% [3] Precious Metals - Spot gold fell over 0.6%, while silver experienced a significant drop of over 5% [5] - The World Gold Council announced that gold recorded a 4% increase in December 2025, contributing to an annual growth rate of 67%, marking the highest annual return in decades [5] Monetary Policy - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that the only missing factor for further economic strength is a more significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan expressed expectations for a 150 basis point rate cut by 2026 to boost the labor market, with core inflation projected to remain around 2.3% [6] - Fitch Ratings anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts in the first half of 2026, lowering the upper limit of the federal funds rate to 3.25% [6]

晚间（1月8日），美国三大股指集体下跌，纳指更是在开盘后跳水，截至发稿跌超0.6%，而道指随后翻红。 此外，美国降息方面再次传来新消息。 据报道，美国财长贝森特表示，当前经济若要进一步走强，唯一欠缺的因素是美联储更大幅度的降息。 美联储理事米兰表示，他期望2026年降息150个基点，以提振劳动力市场。米兰在描述货币政策具有限制性时表示，基本通胀率可能维持在2.3%左右，这 意味着美联储官员仍有进一步降息的空间。 米兰表示，基本通胀率在目标区间内波动，这很好地预示了中期整体通胀的走向。"大约有100万美国人目前没有工作，但如果他们就业，并不会引起不必 要的通胀。"米兰称，目前尚不清楚自己在任期结束后是否会继续留在美联储。许多美联储观察人士预计，特朗普将利用米兰目前的席位，将他挑选的下 一任美联储主席人选安排进理事会。但如果鲍威尔在2026年5月主席任期结束后离开美联储，可能会腾出另一个席位。 惠誉则预计，美联储将在2026年上半年降息两次，将联邦基金利率（上限）降至3.25%。 责编:史健 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 （来源：证券时报） 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数在低开后爆发，截至发稿涨逾1%，个股方 ...

Core Insights - Americans expressed increased concerns about the job market in December, with the outlook for finding a job being the worst since the survey began in 2013, particularly among households earning under $100,000 per year [1][2] Job Market Concerns - Job market anxieties varied in December, with expectations of a rising unemployment rate decreasing compared to the previous month, while the probability of job loss increased [2] - There was a decline in the likelihood of voluntarily leaving a job in December compared to November [2] Inflation Expectations - Households raised their near-term inflation expectations, with the one-year projection increasing to 3.4% from 3.2% in November, while three- and five-year expectations remained steady at 3% [3] - Short-term inflation expectations are volatile, but the increase in the year-ahead inflation projection aligns with rising price pressures attributed to tariff increases from the Trump administration [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% to balance job market risks against persistent inflation above the 2% target [5] - Fed officials anticipate a modest decline in the unemployment rate from 4.6% in November, alongside moderating inflation pressures that will still exceed the central bank's target [5] Household Financial Sentiment - Households reported a more positive outlook on their current and expected financial situations in December, despite facing challenges in accessing credit [6] - Expectations of missing a debt payment rose to the highest level since April 2020, indicating growing financial concerns among households [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Oil Market and Venezuela - Venezuela's oil supply is expected to increase by 600,000 barrels per day, but the heavy quality of its crude requires specific refineries for processing. Currently, Venezuelan crude is significantly discounted, providing refiners with a 5-6% profit margin, especially amid tight global fuel supply conditions [1][2][3] - Venezuela's daily oil supply is nearing 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of global oil supply. The country previously supplied around 3.5 million barrels per day a decade ago, with sanctions causing a decline of 200,000 barrels per day. This gap is expected to gradually return to the market [2][11] South Korean Market - The Kospi index has surpassed 4,500 points at the beginning of 2026, currently around 4,600 points, driven by the technology sector, particularly in chips, with DRAM prices increasing approximately fourfold in recent months. Industrial and defense stocks are also expected to perform well [4][6] - The trading range for Kospi has been adjusted to 4,100-4,800 points, with potential positive impacts from U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and stable U.S. consumer spending on the automotive sector [4][6] Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market is anticipated to enter a super cycle, with all three segments—office, retail, and residential—projected to achieve positive growth in 2026. The residential sector is expected to see double-digit growth due to low supply and high demand [9][10] - The complete removal of stamp duty in Hong Kong is expected to stimulate the real estate market, allowing investors to purchase multiple apartments. Developers' profit margins are expected to improve, becoming clearer in 2027-2028 [10][12] Core Insights and Arguments Economic Policies and Currency - The South Korean government has implemented several foreign exchange measures to promote volatility in the won, with expectations of a strong economic rebound in the first half of the year. However, maintaining the strength of the dollar will require further structural changes [5][6] - The geopolitical landscape in 2026 is expected to influence U.S.-China relations positively, with several key diplomatic meetings scheduled, although potential risks remain [7] Investment Opportunities - The profitability outlook for Taiwanese and South Korean companies remains strong, with expectations of steady provisioning and profit growth. The core business valuation dynamics for Latte House are expected to improve, particularly during the election period [8] - The Hong Kong real estate stocks are projected to rise due to a narrowing discount from asset values, with expectations of a 30-40% increase in stock prices as the discount reduces from 50% to 30% or 20% [12] Additional Important Insights - The energy market is currently characterized by a tight supply situation, with limited growth in refining capacity expected over the next 3-4 years. This presents a low-risk environment for Asian refiners capable of processing Venezuelan crude [11] - The current economic environment suggests that mid-tier individuals should consider purchasing property due to rising rents and declining mortgage rates, while high-end individuals may continue renting due to cash flow challenges [13][14]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened lower on January 8, with the Dow Jones up 0.34%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq down 0.51% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia and Intel dropping over 2%, and Apple and Facebook down over 1% [3] - Military stocks surged, with Northrop Grumman rising over 9% and Lockheed Martin up over 7%, following President Trump's proposal to increase U.S. military spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion for FY2027 [3] Commodity Market - Silver prices fell significantly, with spot silver down over 5% and COMEX silver down over 4%. The gold-silver ratio has dropped below 60, currently around 59, marking a ten-year low [3] - International oil prices saw an increase, with Brent crude rising nearly 2% to $61 per barrel and WTI crude up 1.95% to $57 per barrel [3] Employment and Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was recorded at 208,000, slightly below the forecast of 212,000, with the previous value revised from 199,000 to 200,000 [4] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to potentially lower interest rates by about 150 basis points by 2026, with a focus on balancing employment and inflation [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Various institutions have differing views on the Fed's interest rate decisions for the year, with JPMorgan and UBS predicting only one rate cut, while Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo expect two cuts. Some banks believe there will be no cuts at all [5]

1月8日，美联储理事Stephen Miran表示，他预计今年美联储将降息150个基点，以提振美国劳动力市 场。 此前他对福克斯商业频道表示，今年"降息超过100个基点是合理的"。 米兰呼吁降息150个基点，与美联储19名政策制定者在12月利率设定会议结束时发布的联邦基金利率预 测一致。该匿名预测将联邦基金利率定为2.00%-2.25%，低于当前的3.50%-3.75%水平，也比第二低的预 测低50个基点。 米兰作为美联储理事的任期将于1月31日结束。 Miran在接受彭博电视采访时表示，鉴于潜在通胀可能在2.3%左右，美联储官员有进一步降息的空间。 ...