2025.10. 21 本文字数：2030，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 因投资者等待近期中美贸易谈判及美国通胀数据发布，叠加市场对美联储进一步降息的预期与避险需求 持续升温，国际金价周一大幅上涨超4%。纽约商品交易所12月交割的COMEX黄金期货日内触及4398 美元/盎司高位，再创历史新高，截至记者发稿时，金价交投于4380美元附近。 V型反转 周一，黄金在欧洲交易时段再起升势，CPM集团（CPM Group）管理合伙人克里斯蒂安（Jeffrey Christian）表示，政治与经济层面的担忧正推动金价回升。"我们预计，未来数周乃至数月内金价将进 一步走高，若短期内触及每盎司4500美元，我们也不会感到意外。"他补充道。 美国政府停摆状态进入第20天。上周，参议员们第十次尝试打破僵局，但未能成功。受"停摆"影响，美 国能源部下属国家核安全管理局约1400名员工将于20日开始被迫无薪休假，这是该机构2000年成立以 来首次。 此次停摆还导致关键经济数据发布延迟，使投资者与政策制定者在美联储下周召开政策会议前陷入 "数 据真空"。美联储主席鲍威尔14日在美国商业经济协会年会上表示，美联储想通 ...

9月初以来，美联储降息预期和独立性风险，是驱动本轮金价上涨的核心因素，而美国联邦政府"停 摆"、地缘冲突反复、中美贸易摩擦升级等因素轮番驱动金价上行。黄金上涨的基本逻辑未发生根本变 化，但短期仍需警惕贵金属价格持续攀升后资金离场所引发的调整风险。中长期来看，在美国两党分歧 加剧的背景下，经济复苏进程可能比预期更为曲折，美联储货币政策或维持宽松。美国政府"关门"时长 超过历史平均值，加剧市场对美国财政可持续性与债务信用的担忧。叠加央行购金以及投资需求强劲， 黄金中长期依然维持偏多思路。 2025年金价持续攀升 2025年以来，黄金经历了两轮显著上涨。第一轮是年初至4月中旬，市场预计美国可能对黄金加征关 税，从而引发现货抢购，随后因美国特朗普政府的移民、关税等政策冲击美元信用，全球央行不断增持 黄金。第二轮是8月中下旬，由于多重因素共振，贵金属上涨速度超预期。8月22日在杰克逊霍尔全球央 行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔释放"鸽派"信号，新一轮降息周期启动，贵金属开启本轮上涨模式。随后 美联储降息预期升温、美联储独立性受到质疑、美国政府"关门"以及贸易摩擦加剧是驱动价格上涨的核 心因素。 国际金价自2025年4月22日 ...

市场对美联储进一步降息的预期与避险需求持续升温。 上周五，金价曾触及每盎司4392美元的历史高点，随后尾盘跳水当日收盘下跌1.8%，创下自5月中旬以 来的最大单日跌幅。消息面上，美国总统特朗普的表态在一定程度上缓解了市场对贸易紧张形势的担 忧，与此同时，地区银行危机降温也打压了避险情绪。 周一，黄金在欧洲交易时段再起升势，CPM集团（CPM Group）管理合伙人克里斯蒂安（Jeffrey Christian）表示，政治与经济层面的担忧正推动金价回升。"我们预计，未来数周乃至数月内金价将进 一步走高，若短期内触及每盎司4500美元，我们也不会感到意外。"他补充道。 美国政府停摆状态进入第20天。上周，参议员们第十次尝试打破僵局，但未能成功。受"停摆"影响，美 国能源部下属国家核安全管理局约1400名员工将于20日开始被迫无薪休假，这是该机构2000年成立以来 首次。 此次停摆还导致关键经济数据发布延迟，使投资者与政策制定者在美联储下周召开政策会议前陷入 "数 据真空"。美联储主席鲍威尔14日在美国商业经济协会年会上表示，美联储想通过私营机构编撰的经济 数据来评估美国经济状况，但这些渠道不能取代政府统计。"美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices is driven by geopolitical risks, global credit system instability, and liquidity factors, leading to increased investment in gold-related ETFs and reinforcing the logic for gold's price increase [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On October 20, spot gold prices rose by 2.0% to $4,333.42 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3.1%, reaching a daily high of $4,351 [2]. - Year-to-date returns for several representative gold ETFs, such as Huaan Gold ETF and Bosera Gold ETF, have exceeded 60%, with some gold stock ETFs surpassing 90% [3]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Market Dynamics - The recent historical highs in gold prices have attracted significant market attention, with multiple factors contributing to this trend, including geopolitical demand for safe-haven assets and changes in global liquidity expectations [4]. - Major gold ETFs, including SPDR, have maintained net inflows, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, indicating a shift in investment strategies from U.S. Treasuries to gold [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite potential short-term fluctuations, the long-term value of gold as a core asset remains strong, with predictions of gold prices potentially reaching between $4,600 and $5,000 per ounce next year [6][7]. - The investment strategy suggests viewing gold as a long-term hedge against sovereign currency credit risks and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing its low correlation with other asset classes [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices in 2024, with an increase of over 61% by October 17, 2025, marking it as one of the largest annual gains since 2000 [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has been recognized as a major investment asset, with its price potentially reaching $5,000 to $10,000 according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [4]. - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of gold as a stable form of currency rather than just a metal, arguing that it serves as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation [9][12]. - Dalio suggests that gold should constitute about 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio for optimal risk-return balance, especially during times of economic uncertainty [36][35]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Assets - Unlike other metals such as silver and platinum, gold is viewed as a unique asset due to its lack of credit risk and its role as a universal medium of exchange [17][18]. - Dalio argues that while AI stocks may have high growth potential, their long-term value is uncertain, and they are subject to market volatility, unlike gold which provides a more stable investment [29][30]. - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity, but they are still smaller in scale compared to physical gold and central bank reserves, thus not being the primary driver of gold price increases [38][39]. Group 3: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is increasingly being viewed as a "risk-free asset," replacing U.S. Treasury bonds in many institutional portfolios, particularly among central banks [40][41]. - The historical performance of gold demonstrates its resilience as a store of value, especially during periods of economic crisis when fiat currencies may depreciate [45][46]. - Dalio notes that the intrinsic value of gold is not dependent on any repayment promise, making it a reliable asset across different economic conditions [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices is driven by geopolitical risks, global credit system instability, and liquidity changes, leading to increased investment in gold ETFs and reinforcing gold's role as a core asset in investment portfolios [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On October 20, spot gold prices rose by 2.0% to $4,333.42 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3.1%, reaching a daily high of $4,351 [3]. - Year-to-date returns for several representative gold ETFs have exceeded 60%, with some gold stock ETFs surpassing 90% [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Investment - The strong rise in gold prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risk, a weakening global credit system, and changing liquidity expectations [5]. - Since September, global political instability, including events like the U.S. government shutdown and European fiscal concerns, has further catalyzed the rise in gold prices [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite potential short-term fluctuations, the long-term value of gold as a hedge against currency credit risk and geopolitical tensions remains solid [7]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach between $4,600 and $5,000 per ounce next year, with the key factor being the strength of the U.S. dollar [7][8]. Group 4: Gold Stocks Performance - Gold stocks are expected to see significant revenue and profit growth due to high gold prices, although their performance has lagged behind spot gold prices recently [8].

Summary of Zijin Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining - **Industry**: Mining (Gold, Copper, Lithium) Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: 221.1 billion CNY for the first three quarters, up 55% year-on-year [2][3] - **Net Profit**: 34.1 billion CNY, a 44% increase year-on-year [2][3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 52.1 billion CNY, up 44% year-on-year [2][3] - **Cash Balance**: 61.5 billion CNY at the end of the period [2][3] - **Debt Ratio**: Decreased to 53%, down 2.18 percentage points from the previous year [3] Gold Business Performance - **Gold Production**: 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year [2][5] - **Third Quarter Gold Production**: 24 tons [5] - **Zijin Gold International IPO**: Successfully listed in Hong Kong, raising 28.7 billion HKD, making it the largest gold IPO globally [2][5] - **Future Gold Production Target**: Aiming for 100-110 tons by 2028, with expected production of nearly 50 tons in 2025 after the acquisition of the Akin Mine [6][5] Cost and Profitability - **Sales Cost Increase**: Unit sales costs have risen, but gross margins remain high [7][8] - **Gold Ingot Gross Margin**: 55.8% [7] - **Copper Products Gross Margins**: Copper concentrate at 64.77%, electrolytic copper at 47.21% [8] Copper Production Outlook - **2025 Copper Production Target**: Originally planned for 1.15 million tons, now expected to be around 1.1 million tons [14][15] - **2028 Copper Production Goal**: Targeting 1.5 to 1.6 million tons, with growth driven by projects in Tibet and other regions [14][15] Lithium Strategy - **Lithium Production**: Significant focus on lithium, with projects in Tibet and Argentina [4][16] - **Cost Control**: Lithium production costs range from 35,000 to 60,000 CNY per ton depending on the project [20][21] Market Trends and Future Outlook - **Gold Price Trends**: Gold prices have increased by 61% in 2025, with significant volatility expected [13] - **Copper Market Dynamics**: Anticipated price increase to over 12,000 USD per ton due to supply constraints and rising demand [22] - **Cost Management**: Company plans to optimize internal management and control costs through technological innovation [19] Additional Insights - **Non-Recurring Income**: Approximately 2.07 billion CNY in non-recurring income for the third quarter, primarily from financial asset changes [25] - **Profit Contribution**: Gold and copper each contributed about 38.5% to the overall profit in the third quarter [26] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Zijin Mining's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

转自：证券时报 人民财讯10月20日电，现货黄金日内涨幅扩大至2%。 ...

10月20日电，现货黄金日内涨幅扩大至1%，报4292.13美元/盎司。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,144 per ounce on Friday, up 0.4% from Thursday’s close of $4,125.50. The price of gold declined in early trading. The uncertainty and political discord caused by President Trump’s tariffs have supported higher demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The U.S. tariff agenda continues to fuel tensions with other nations. President Trump terminated trade talks with Canada Thursday via a Truth Social post. The decision was prompted by a Canadian ad that criticizes Trump’s tari ...