Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid decline in the probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Domestic policies such as the trade-in program will continue, and anti-involution policies are emerging [1] - The aluminum industry saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons in production capacity in May, with a slight rise in operating rates [1] Group 2 - In May, China's net export of alumina was 142,500 tons, a significant decrease, marking 14 consecutive months of net exports, with export profits slightly narrowing [1] - The production cost of alumina was 2,821.9 yuan per ton, with a profit of 300.3 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease in costs and a minor reduction in profits [1] - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,540 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan per ton, providing cost support for alumina [1] Group 3 - The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained stable supply with a slight increase in production capacity [1] - In May, net imports of aluminum were 191,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40,000 tons but a month-on-month decrease of 45,800 tons, with current import losses at 1,310 yuan per ton [1] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 108 yuan per ton week-on-week, currently around 16,611 yuan, with profits at 4,259 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan [1] Group 4 - Social inventory of aluminum reached 475,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 14,000 tons, while spot prices remained high with rapid declines in premiums [1] - The main contract for August is expected to fluctuate between 19,800 and 20,800 yuan per ton, with attention on high-season hedging opportunities [1]

摘要 3、 "反内卷"行情持续，周期板块逆势上涨，从历史行情看未来主线，如何做好资产配置？ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1381 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股三大指数震荡分化，沪指收红，创业板指跌超1%。不过个股涨多跌少，有超3200只个股上涨。 (图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/7/7，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额出现缩量，为1.21万亿元，盘面上，电力、地产、传媒等板块逆势上涨，创新药、贵金属等板块跌幅居前。 1、今天，A股三大指数出现震荡，沪指收红，创业板指跌超1%，个股涨多跌少，发生了什么？ 2、 强化高频交易监管，三大交易所新规正式实施，影响几何？A股冲击3500点能否成功？ 7月7日起，沪深北三大交易所《程序化交易管理实施细则》正式开始实施，将加强程序化交易监测监控，强化高频交易监管。 短期来看， 新规限制高频交易，使得 中小盘股活跃度下降，间接影响创业板流动性。 但长期来看，前海开源基金首席经家杨德龙表示，新规的发布有利于减少程序化交易对市场波动的影响、提振投资者信心，推动资本市场长期健康发 展。 2、板块分化，电力受利好政策上涨，科技承压。 今天，创新药 、消费电子等科 ...

社库累库且现货贴水，预计盘面上方空间有限 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国非农就业人数大超预期，7月降息概率迅速下滑；国内以旧换新政策将继续，反内卷政策抬头；7月9日临近，关注美国对外关税政策。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：5月，在产产能环比增加210万吨，开工率环比小幅上升；矿石端，国内到港量周度环比增加，数值仍处在正常范围内 进口： 2025年5月中国氧化铝净出口14.25万吨，环比大幅减少，连续14个月净出口；出口盈利小幅收敛 需求：电解铝在产产能小幅增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝生产完全成本为2821.9元，盈利300.3元/吨，成本微幅下滑，利润小幅减少；烧碱价格最新价3540元/吨，周度环比上涨10元/吨 进口矿到港量周度环比反弹，数据暂在正常范围内；进口矿价较为稳定，韧性较强，下跌概率不大，对氧化铝存成本支撑；国内矿端库存仍在 偏高位置；氧化铝周产环比增加，社库延续累库，现货近两 ...

财达期货｜焦煤焦炭周报 2025-07-07 反内卷政策提振黑色板块，期价震荡运行 【期现行情】 上周焦煤 2509 合约周五收于 839.5，周跌幅 0.94%，现货市场主流地区报价偏 强运行。 研究员 姓名：申伟光 上周焦炭 2509 合约周五收于 1433，周涨幅 0.81%，现货市场主流地区报价暂 稳运行。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 【基本面分析】 F03088716 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 焦煤： 供应端：上周全国 523 家炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率 83.8%，环比上升 1.3%。 全国 110 家洗煤厂开工率 59.72%，环比上升 0.62%；日均产量 50.59 万吨，环比增 加 0.44 万吨。上周，因 6 月份安全环保检查增多影响的主产区煤矿逐渐恢复生产， 炼焦煤矿山核定产能利用率及洗煤厂开工率有所提升，但产地安监形势仍然严峻， 整体开工率未出现明显提升。库存方面，随着市场有所好转，下游采购积极性有所 提高，洗煤厂生产积极性提高，洗煤厂原煤及精煤库存延续去库。 需求端：上周，钢厂高炉开工率依然维持高位，原料煤需求有支撑。上周钢材 库存环比小幅下降，表需上升，焦煤市场情绪回升，焦钢企业的补库 ...

厦油产业期现日报 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 7月7日 | 7月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent WTI | 67.78 | 68.30 | -0.52 | -0.76% | 美元/桶 | | | 65.98 | 67.00 | -1.02 | -1.52% | | | ਟ | 501.20 | 506.40 | -5.20 | -1.03% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.67 | 1.84 | -0.17 | -9.24% | 美元/桶 | | WTI M1-M3 | 2.37 | 2.60 | -0.23 | -8.85% | | | SC MI-M3 | 9.40 | 11.60 | -2.20 | -18.97% | 元/相 | | Brent-WTI | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | EFS | 1.79 | 1.85 | -0.06 | -3.24% | 美元/桶 | | SC-Bren ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积收跌，红枣跌幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20250707 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3936 | 0.46% | 1.53% | 1.29% | 5.26% | 0.38% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 1849.9 | -2.48% | 2.49% | 5.0 ...

专题报告 2025-07-07 橡胶：多头争雄谁领先？ 报告要点： 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-23982459 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 我们认为，2025 年反内卷政策是影响商品市场的重要事件。 回顾历史，供给侧改革导致 2016 年焦炭涨幅 141.73%；焦煤涨幅 109.08%；铁矿涨幅 68.79%；螺纹涨幅 60.38%；玻璃涨幅 46.58%；金属，化工，贵金属等板块均普涨。 2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，明确要求依法治理企业低价无序 竞争，推动落后产能有序退出，释放国家层面"反内卷"政策新信号。 我们发现，涨幅领先品种需要天时地利人和，多因素共振。 2016 年逻辑上最通顺的煤炭钢铁涨幅最大，后续配套政策频繁发布，基本面，政策面， 资金面，技术面，全面共振，众望所归。选择直接受益品种是最佳策略。即使是不直接 受益供给侧改革品种，市场也会以其他各种因素补涨。但涨幅差异比较大。 时间上看，反应最灵敏最先涨的品种不一定涨幅大。 沪铜沪铝反应最快，对宏观反应灵敏，但总体涨幅相对比较小。 焦炭的涨幅最大， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that anti-involution policies will primarily focus on industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, leading to accelerated mergers, restructuring, and integration rather than administrative capacity reduction [1] - The recent sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has declined, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing a pullback after reaching the upper range, influenced by strong U.S. economic data, delayed interest rate cuts, a depreciating RMB, and rising long-term interest rates, which have increased pressure on the liabilities of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Looking ahead, high long-term U.S. interest rates may continue to suppress the economy, but the AI capital expenditure wave is expected to support the performance of leading technology stocks in Hong Kong, with high demand in upstream AI computing power and servers likely to persist into the second half of the year, providing a favorable long-term value proposition for the Hang Seng Technology sector [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which is compiled by Guozheng Index Co., Ltd., aiming to reflect the performance of technology industry stocks that can be traded through the Stock Connect mechanism [1] - The index constituents mainly cover high-tech fields such as information technology and healthcare, selecting innovative companies with high growth potential as samples, thereby reflecting the overall trend of the technology sector in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The industry allocation focuses on technological innovation areas, including cloud computing and biomedicine, providing investors with an efficient tool to invest in leading technology stocks in Hong Kong [1]

行 电力设备 2025 年 07 月 06 日 业 研 究 行 业 电力设备 产业周跟踪：反内卷政策预期加强，两条直流特 高压线路获核准 投资要点： 锂电板块核心观点：7 月排产维持高位迎接旺季，全球固态电池产业 化加速。1）锂电 7 月排产维持高位，迎接旺季；2）全球固态电池进展加 速。 定 期 报 告 光伏板块核心观点："反内卷"政策预期加强，多晶硅价格实现上涨。 7 月 3 日，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开第十五次制造 业企业座谈会，通威、晶科、天合、隆基、晶澳、协鑫等 14 家光伏头部企 业参会，释放出强化行业协同治理、引导产能有序释放的重要信号。会议 强调"推进全国统一大市场建设的决策部署，综合治理光伏行业低价无序 竞争"，这一表态有望对当前激烈竞争的行业格局带来边际改善。同时，相 关政策提出"加强下一代光伏产品竞争优势""推动高质量发展"，政策端 强化引导信号有望助推市场信心修复。 风电板块核心观点：推动海洋经济高质量发展，海上风电担当重任。 国家推动海洋经济高质量发展，顶层设计和配套政策预计将逐步落地；做 强做优做大海洋产业，海上风电排在首位，凸显了海风在海洋产业中的重 要地位。在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].