锌周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 宏微观偏弱 锌价低位震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价横盘震荡。宏观面看，美联储连续第四 次会议按兵不动，预计今年降息两次，符合预期，但将明 年的降息次数减少了一次。美国直接下场，以伊冲突升级， 市场避险情绪抬升及降息路径偏鹰，美元偏强，压制金属。 国内陆家嘴论坛未有超预期表现，5 月经济数据多数下 行，以旧换新支撑消费走高，持续性存疑。基本面看，5 月锌精矿进口符合预期，全球矿山稳步输出，加工费仍有 上涨空间。炼厂生产积极性尚可，供应回升。进口窗口关 闭后，5 月进口量低于预期，但国内产量恢复弥补进口缺 失量。需求端看，抢出口效应递减，5 月镀锌板出口环比 降幅较大，且仍又回落压力。近期受梅雨季及高位天气拖 累渐显，消费边际走弱，同时山东地区环保检查，镀锌企 业开工回落；五金汽配订单走弱，叠加部分企业因设备原 因产量减少，压铸锌合金企业开工回落；企业复工，氧化 锌开工率微增。终端需求回落，初端企业开工下滑态势不 改，且目前原料库存较高，补库动力不足，锌锭社会库存 小幅增加。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t ...

需求转弱 镍价下行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 需求端 宏观方面，关税前景多变，地缘冲突升级，市场避险情绪上升。美联储按兵不动，美元上涨。 6月逐步进入传统淡季，市场按需逢低采购，成交略有好转；不锈钢降价减产或将导致NPI减产；电动车去库影响三 元电池订单，拖累硫酸镍减产。 供应端 供应端 头部钢厂仍在国内生产，减产多为印尼和国内中小型钢厂，200系为主。 国内镍铁厂倒挂明显，维持低开工率。印尼低成本镍铁产量增加，利多矿价。 300系不锈钢累库压力较大，代理出货情况不理想。 精炼镍6月产量预计环比小幅下降，匹配需求淡季。净进口因进口亏损收窄有所上升。 镍矿价格坚挺，但下游接受度下降，上下游博弈，后市关注NPI减产情况，预计镍矿三季度见顶。 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 地缘冲突升级，市场避险情绪上升。美联储按兵不动，符合市场预期。精炼镍6月需求放缓，三元电池产量环比负增 长，中印不锈钢均有减产计划，合金电镀也进入淡季， ...

特朗普发表全国讲话 据央视新闻消息，美国东部时间21日22时，美国总统特朗普就袭击伊朗核设施发表全国讲话。特朗普称，伊朗 关键的核设施已被"彻底摧毁"。 在上述背景下，市场避险情绪急速升温，投资者纷纷抛售风险资产。加密货币集体暴跌，截至记者发稿时，以 太坊跌超7%，艾达币、狗狗币跌超6%，Solana跌4.63%，XRP跌近4%，BNB跌2.50%，比特币跌1.36%。 coinglass数据显示，过去24小时内，加密货币全网爆仓人数超过17万人，爆仓金额达到6.75亿美元，其中近九 成为多单爆仓。 据美联社报道，美国空袭伊朗核设施后，纽约市警方表示，出于"高度谨慎"，他们正在加强宗教、文化和外交 场所的安保。据报道，纽约警察局表示，他们正在跟踪情况，与联邦执法机构协调，并将继续监测此事对美国 最大城市的任何潜在影响。 中东紧张局势，火速升级！ 据最新消息，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称，将打击美国在中东地区的所有利益。此前，美军在对伊朗福尔道核设施 的袭击中投下6枚钻地弹，还向伊朗其他核设施发射了30枚"战斧"导弹。随后，以色列升级全国戒备状态。 特朗普表示，美国和以色列作为一个团队进行了密切合作。如果伊朗不能实现和 ...

| | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,130 | -0.71% | 78280 | 0.19% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,620 | -0.32% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 32,943 | -1,536 | 136,237 | -983 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,100 | -1,233 | 290,000 | -1,228 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 44,816 | -2,198 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 103,325 | -4,025 | 47.52% | -2.01% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 保税区仓单升水 | | 133.36 40 | 105.96 40 | 27.40 0 | | | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-20 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-20 所长 早读 若美国介入以伊冲突，市场会怎样？ 观点分享： 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普在 6 月 17 日晚已告诉他的高级助手，称他已批准了对 伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗是否会放弃其核计划。知情人士还透露， 伊朗重兵防守的福尔多核设施可能成为美国的打击目标。分析认为，一旦特朗普下令美军深 度介入伊以冲突，市场最初的反应大概率将是负面的：原油继续大涨，金价飙升，美股下跌， 美债收益率下降，美元反弹。伊朗控制的霍尔木兹海峡承载着全球约 20%的石油和海运天然 气运输，堪称化石燃料贸易的生命线，伊朗官员在冲突中例行威胁封锁该海峡的能源运输。 巴克莱银行认为在"最坏情况"下，原油价格可能突破 100 美元大关。Capital Economics 则 预测油价可能从目前的 75 美元飙升至 130 美元或更高，并因此提高全球经济衰退概率。基 于如此严重的后果，有分析师认为，封锁海峡将促使美国及其盟友"几乎肯定使用武力重新开 放出口航线"，伊朗虽可造成"数周血腥混乱"， ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper market is in a volatile situation, with the market waiting for new drivers. The geopolitical conflict is escalating, increasing market risk aversion and expectations of economic uncertainty. The Fed's FOMC meeting hinted at two potential rate cuts this year. Fundamentally, the supply side has an increase in refined copper concentrate port inventory, and the negative expansion of domestic smelting fees signals a potential reduction in production, supporting the bottom space of copper prices. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is low, the market is cautious in the face of high prices, and the downstream operating rate has slowed down. The terminal wire and cable industry maintains resilience, but the home appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk, and the real estate industry has a negative impact. Overall, the fundamentals have no significant fluctuations, maintaining the logic of tight supply expectations and weakening marginal demand. The copper price is affected by copper tariff policies and the Middle - East situation, fluctuating within a range. Before breaking through the upper resistance level, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, and the downside space is also limited by tight supply expectations [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and faced pressure during the day. Geopolitical conflicts have led to increased risk aversion and economic uncertainty, making investors cautious. The Fed's FOMC meeting hinted at two potential rate cuts this year. On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper concentrate has increased, and the negative expansion of domestic smelting fees signals a potential reduction in production, supporting the bottom space of copper prices. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is low, the market is cautious in the face of high prices, and the downstream operating rate has slowed down. The terminal wire and cable industry maintains resilience, but the home appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk, and the real estate industry has a negative impact. The market is waiting for new guidance, and before breaking through the upper resistance level, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, and the downside space is limited by tight supply expectations [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed slightly lower, at 78,310. The long positions of the top 20 were 123,219 lots, a decrease of 3,503 lots; the short positions were 110,314 lots, a decrease of 5,170 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 135 yuan/ton. On June 18, 2025, the LME official price was $9,684/ton, and the spot premium was $156.5/ton [4]. Group 5: Supply Side - As of June 13, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$43.91/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.40 cents/pound [6]. Group 6: Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 2,198 tons from the previous period. As of June 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 59,800 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 103,300 tons, a slight decrease of 4,025 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].

Group 1 - The core finding of the World Gold Council's survey indicates that over 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since the survey began in 2019 and a 17 percentage point increase from 2024 [1] - The survey collected responses from 73 central banks, the highest participation rate to date, with nearly 43% planning to increase their gold reserves within the next year [1] - China's gold reserves have increased to 7.383 million ounces as of May 2025, up by 6,000 ounces from April, continuing a seven-month trend of increasing reserves [1] Group 2 - Recent geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. economic data have driven a surge in gold prices, with a 3.74% increase observed in the week from June 9 to June 13 [2] - The main motivations for central banks to hold gold have shifted to its long-term value storage (80%), portfolio diversification (81%), and performance during crises (85%) [2] - Despite the positive outlook from central banks, some analysts, like Citigroup, predict a decline in gold prices due to decreasing demand and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, forecasting prices to drop below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters [2] Group 3 - Short-term expectations for gold prices remain high due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and a potential softening of the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, which could support gold prices [3] - Long-term factors influencing gold prices include the stability of credit currencies like the U.S. dollar, with a weakening dollar expected to support gold's value [3] - While the trend for gold prices is upward, the pace of increase may slow down, and short-term fluctuations could lead to price adjustments [3]

市场主流观点汇总 2025/6/17 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/13 | | 2025/6/6 | 至 | 2025/6/13 | | | 原油 | 529.90 | 原油 | | | 13.69% | | | 甲醇 | 2389.00 | 甲醇 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 中东局势紧张，避险需求推升金 价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿，上 游矿端承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：6 月 13 日以色列向伊朗发动空袭， ...

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]