Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices and U.S. Treasury indices, highlighting the performance of various markets and the impact of currency fluctuations on investment opportunities. Group 1: Market Performance - The global stock market experienced an overall increase this week, with the Asia-Pacific region leading the gains [4][5]. - The A-share market has risen for five consecutive weeks, with the CSI All Share Index increasing by over 2% this week [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen a rise of over 2% for two consecutive weeks [5]. - The U.S. and European markets also showed overall increases [6]. - The global stock market index has returned to a 3.0 star rating [7]. Group 2: Currency Impact - Renminbi-denominated assets have performed well globally this year, partly due to the appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar, which has risen by 3% since April [8][9]. - Historical trends indicate that bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks often coincide with periods of renminbi appreciation, such as the 2020-2021 bull market [10][16]. - The current dollar interest rate cut cycle, which began in September 2024, has led to a depreciation of the dollar, benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [18]. - Currency fluctuations are not a long-term influencing factor but can create short-term investment opportunities [19][21]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which total over a trillion dollars, but notes the limited options for such funds in mainland China [29]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track global stock market performance [31]. - There are current purchase limits for mainland investors in overseas markets, with a maximum daily purchase of 350 yuan [33].

金十数据7月24日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Chris Turner在报告中表示，若欧洲央行在周四会议上表露对 欧元近期升值的担忧，欧元可能走弱。他在报告中表示，部分欧洲央行成员已对欧元上涨公开发声，周 四可能涉及汇率评论。"毕竟欧洲央行一直关注通胀不及目标的问题，而本币走强确实会加剧这一状 况。"Turner称，考虑到特朗普对汇率操纵的敏感性，尚不清楚该行是否认为汇率评论可能影响美欧贸 易关系。 荷兰国际：欧央行若担忧欧元走强 汇率或应声下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - SAP's Q2 earnings report revealed that currency fluctuations negatively impacted cloud revenue, leading to a decline in stock price after the announcement [1][15]. Financial Highlights - Total revenue for Q2 reached €9.027 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase (12% at constant currency), but fell short of analyst expectations of €9.07 billion [2]. - Cloud and software revenue amounted to €7.97 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, slightly below the expected €7.99 billion [2]. - Non-IFRS operating profit rose to €2.568 billion [3]. - Basic EPS increased by 91% to €1.45, while diluted EPS grew by 92% to €1.44 [3]. - Free cash flow surged to €2.357 billion, marking an 83% year-over-year increase [4]. Cloud Business Performance - Cloud revenue reached €5.13 billion, a 24% increase (28% at constant currency), but was below the expected €5.17 billion [5]. - Cloud ERP suite revenue, including S/4HANA Cloud, hit €4.422 billion, growing 30% year-over-year (34% at constant currency) [5]. - Cloud backlog stood at €18.052 billion, a 22% increase (28% at constant currency), but also fell short of the anticipated €18.5 billion [5][14]. - Non-IFRS gross profit for cloud business increased to €3.856 billion, with a gross margin of 75.2%, up from 73.3% in Q2 2024 [5]. Other Business Segments - Software license revenue declined by 15% to €190 million, a 13% decrease at constant currency [6]. - Service revenue decreased by 5% to €1.06 billion, down 2% at constant currency [7]. Regional Performance - Revenue in the Asia-Pacific and Japan region grew by 33% (37% at constant currency) [8]. - Cloud revenue in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa increased by 29% (30% at constant currency) [9]. - Cloud revenue in the Americas rose by 16% (22% at constant currency) [10]. Future Guidance - SAP is optimistic about 2025 cloud revenue, projecting it to be between €21.6 billion and €21.9 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 26% to 28% [11]. - Total revenue for 2025 is expected to be between €33.1 billion and €33.6 billion, with growth of 11% to 13% [12]. - Non-IFRS operating profit for 2025 is anticipated to be between €10.3 billion and €10.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 26% to 30% [12]. - Free cash flow for 2025 is projected to be around €8 billion, significantly up from €4.22 billion in 2024 [12]. Market Context - SAP's largest market is the U.S., accounting for over 30% of total sales, and the weakening dollar has created currency pressure [13]. - Despite the challenges, SAP's cloud business has shown strong growth, driven by long-term customer commitments to cloud migration [12].

Core Viewpoint - Nokia has lowered its full-year operating profit forecast due to adverse effects from exchange rate fluctuations and tariffs [1] Financial Performance - The company now expects comparable operating profit for 2025 to be between €1.6 billion and €2.1 billion, down from the previous forecast of €1.9 billion to €2.4 billion [1] - The anticipated negative impact from exchange rate fluctuations, particularly the weakening of the US dollar, is estimated to be around €230 million [1] - Current tariff conditions are expected to reduce the company's full-year operating profit by €50 million to €80 million [1] - Preliminary financial data for the second quarter shows net sales of approximately €4.55 billion and comparable operating profit of €300 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are discussing solutions to address the inconsistency between fundamental factors and exchange rate fluctuations, particularly the impact of gold prices on the Thai baht [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate and Gold Price Impact - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, Roong Mallikamas, highlighted that gold prices are a non-fundamental factor influencing the Thai baht's performance [1] - Authorities are seeking ways to reduce the correlation between gold prices and the Thai baht [1] - The Thai baht has appreciated approximately 11% over the past year, making it one of the best-performing currencies in Asia, while gold prices reached record levels in April [1] Group 2: Policy Measures and Economic Role - Roong emphasized that the Thai baht should act as a shock absorber rather than amplifying shocks, indicating that non-fundamental issues need to be addressed [1] - Specific measures being planned to tackle these issues have not been disclosed, nor has a timeline for their announcement been provided [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has surpassed the 148 mark, reaching its highest level since June 23, with an intraday increase of 0.18% [1] Group 1 - The USD/JPY has crossed the 148 threshold, indicating a significant movement in the currency market [1] - This marks a new high for the USD/JPY since June 23, suggesting a strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen [1] - The intraday increase of 0.18% reflects ongoing trends in currency trading and market sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is becoming a crucial asset allocation choice for investors to manage stock market volatility, especially as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle approaches its end [1] Group 1: Market Structure and Characteristics - The multi-tiered market structure meets diverse needs, with U.S. Treasuries serving as the risk-free rate benchmark, influencing global asset pricing [3] - Investment-grade corporate bonds offer a credit premium of 150-250 basis points over Treasuries, while high-yield bonds provide an 8%-12% coupon to compensate for default risk [3] - Inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and convertible bonds are emerging as new tools to combat volatility, with TIPS linked to the CPI index [3] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Interest rate risk is a core challenge, as bond prices move inversely to yields; a 1% increase in the 10-year Treasury yield could lead to a price drop of over 10% for long-term bonds [3] - The yield curve is currently deeply inverted, indicating recession risks while providing a window for positioning in medium to long-term bonds [3] - Credit risk requires dynamic assessment, with default rates for investment-grade bonds typically below 0.5%, while high-yield bonds can see rates of 5%-8% during economic downturns [5] Group 3: Currency and Liquidity Considerations - Currency fluctuations significantly impact cross-border returns, with a 14% appreciation of the dollar in 2022 leading to negative real returns for RMB-denominated holdings of U.S. Treasuries [5] - Daily trading volume for Treasuries exceeds $600 billion, with minimal bid-ask spreads, while high-yield corporate bonds may face 2%-5% price spread losses [5] - Retail investors are advised to use bond ETFs to mitigate liquidity shocks associated with individual bonds [5] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Current strategies for U.S. Treasury allocation should focus on a threefold balance: employing a barbell strategy with short-term and ultra-long-term Treasuries to address interest rate uncertainty [7] - Credit risk exposure should be limited to 20% of the portfolio, prioritizing corporate bonds with cash flow coverage ratios exceeding three times [7] - For holdings exceeding one year, hedging tools are recommended to manage currency risk, especially during periods of anticipated shifts in Federal Reserve policy [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance in recent months, with various companies reporting mixed revenue growth. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by certain segments like sports and leisure apparel [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as tariff policies and global economic conditions on the industry's performance, particularly for companies with significant exposure to international markets [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Revenue Data - In June 2025, several Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported varied revenue performance, with Yu Yuan Group showing a 9.4% year-on-year increase, while Feng Tai Enterprises experienced a 3.07% decline [6][21]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.0% for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust demand in international markets [5][21]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 1.62% in the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market index [12][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector rose by 2.25%, while the apparel and home textile sector increased by 1.71% [12][23]. 3. Valuation Metrics - As of July 11, 2025, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.53, placing it in the 30.59% percentile over the past three years. The apparel and home textile sector had a PE-TTM of 27.66, in the 98.68% percentile [30][12]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the domestic retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with online retail channels continuing to outperform traditional retail [53][55]. - The report also tracks raw material prices, indicating a slight increase in cotton prices and a decrease in gold prices as of July 11, 2025 [40][41]. 5. Industry News - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket report indicates a slight increase in sales, with a total sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [67][68]. - Armani Group reported a 6% decline in sales for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting challenges in the luxury goods market due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [69][70]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty for the mid-year results, recommending brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees for their strong market positioning and growth potential [15][13].

Group 1 - The weak US dollar is expected to negatively impact European companies' earnings, making currency fluctuations a key issue for the earnings season [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the euro has appreciated nearly 13% against the dollar, while the British pound has risen about 8% [1] - Companies with over 25% of their revenue from North America may face significant impacts from currency fluctuations, especially those lacking effective hedging strategies [1][5] Group 2 - Analysts have generally lowered their expectations, predicting a decline in European corporate earnings, which could lead to further downward revisions if negative trends continue [7] - The Stoxx 600 index is expected to see a year-on-year decline in earnings per share of 3%, marking the largest drop in five quarters due to weak demand and a 3.5% increase in the euro trade-weighted index [9] Group 3 - Sectors most sensitive to currency fluctuations include healthcare, luxury goods, and technology, with companies like Argenx (84% North America exposure) and Fresenius Medical (66% North America exposure) being particularly vulnerable [4] - Companies with advanced hedging strategies tend to perform better, as seen with Brunello Cucinelli SpA, which reported double-digit growth without being affected by currency fluctuations [14]

汇率波动还波及其他领域。韩国美妆代购直播开播就喊出"汇率破7狂喜！雪花秀套装立减80！"的口号，后台订单量半小时内突破五千单；外贸企业会计小 周忙着调整报价单，给迈阿密客户的邮件里，新款庭院帐篷降价5%，并在末尾加上了感谢语；伦敦布伦特原油报价每桶下跌0.8美元，中东油轮纷纷改道驶 向青岛港，上海原油期货人民币结算量单日激增17%，沙特阿美高管连夜飞抵浦东；深圳宝安机场的货机塞满跨境电商包裹，货运经理老林催促工人："麻 利点！赶美联储下次会议前全发走！"；留学机构顾问的手机被打爆，波士顿大学的催款邮件躺在学生邮箱里，学费缴费单上的数字少了许多，陈女士握着 汇款凭证松了一口气："这汇率够孩子半年生活费了！" 银行柜员小陈一天办理了两百笔结汇业务，手指敲键盘敲到发麻；换汇大厅的电子屏红得刺眼，大 爷大妈们举着存折挤到柜台前，有人后悔上周换汇太早；外汇黄牛在柜台前直拍大腿："美元存货全砸手里了！" 中国银行7月12日下午3点挂出的人民币卖 出价为7.1686，这意味着换1万美元比上周少掏近200元人民币。 这场汇率风暴仍在继续，其影响将深远且复杂。 全球金融市场正经历一场剧烈震荡。7月12日下午，人民币兑美元汇率突 ...