Group 1 - The construction of a maritime power is a significant strategic task for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, with breakthroughs in marine economic development, technological innovation, and ecological restoration since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1] - China's marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in production value for the first time in 2024, with a focus on high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality advancements [2] - The country has maintained a global lead in new ship orders, completed shipbuilding, and backlog orders, indicating a robust marine industry [2] Group 2 - Coastal regions are accelerating the high-quality development of the marine economy by optimizing spatial layout and industrial structure, with provinces like Fujian and Zhejiang implementing innovative strategies [3] - The establishment of marine economic demonstration zones and the promotion of high-quality development regulations in provinces like Guangdong provide comprehensive support for marine economic growth [2][3] - The integration of marine resources and technology is being enhanced through initiatives like the "Dream" exploration vessel and the promotion of marine numerical forecasting models [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

【冠通研究】 低位库存支撑盘面 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面低开低走尾盘收涨。报收于 79620，前二十名多单量 136049 手，+3339 手；空单量 133555 手，+3630 手。 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日铜低开低走午后拉涨。美国总统特朗普 7 日表示，将从 8 月 1 日起分别对来自 日本、韩国等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25%至 40%不等的关税。国内方面，中央财经委 员会第六次会议研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，强调 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。供 给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，现货粗炼费为-43.31 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼厂加工费预计止跌回稳，铜供应偏激的预期或将有所改善，但目前 关税博弈之下，铜库存加速抢跑至美国，希望能在关税之前到达美国境内，其他地区的 铜库存继续去化，处于库存同期低位状态。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消 费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。预计 7 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 内外政策影响 钢价偏强反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫ 宏观面：中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推 进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 会议强调，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政 府采购和招标投标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化 发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动。美国总统特朗 普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征 收20%关税，任何转运货物将被征收40%的关税。另外， 越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量221万吨，环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of "anti-involution" policies in the photovoltaic sector, leading to an increase in polysilicon prices [3][18] - The offshore wind power sector is positioned to play a crucial role in promoting high-quality development of the marine economy [28][29] - The energy storage sector benefits from the implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" in the U.S. and the launch of a significant subsidy program in Australia [37][40] - The approval of two new ultra-high voltage transmission lines is expected to accelerate construction in the power equipment sector [46][47] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery production in July remains high, preparing for peak season, with significant year-on-year increases in iron-lithium production [9][11] - Global solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating, with several companies announcing advancements in solid-state battery technology [10][11] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the competitive landscape, with a focus on orderly capacity release [3][18] - Polysilicon prices have increased, while other components like silicon wafers and battery cells face price pressures [20][21][22] - The report suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from supply-side reforms and demand recovery [26] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The government emphasizes the importance of offshore wind power in the marine economy, with new policies expected to support its development [28][29] - Significant offshore wind projects are being initiated, indicating a shift towards deep-sea wind power development [30] 3. Energy Storage Sector - The "Inflation Reduction Act" in the U.S. has been enacted, extending tax credits for energy storage projects [37][38] - Australia has launched a substantial subsidy program for household energy storage systems, aiming to increase adoption [40][43] - The report highlights the potential for growth in both domestic and international energy storage markets [44] 4. Power Equipment Sector - Two new ultra-high voltage transmission lines have been approved, marking a significant step in the "14th Five-Year Plan" for power infrastructure [46] - National peak electricity load has reached a record high, indicating ongoing demand growth [47] 5. Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - Siemens has completed a $5.1 billion acquisition, enhancing its digital industrial software capabilities [53][54] - New collaborative robots have been launched, indicating advancements in automation technology [55] 6. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The report anticipates that national market-oriented electricity trading will exceed 6 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2024 [61] - A large-scale green hydrogen pipeline project has been approved, indicating progress in hydrogen energy infrastructure [62] - Investment opportunities in hydrogen energy are highlighted, particularly in companies involved in fuel cell systems and hydrogen production [63]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts are expected to provide strong support for pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of pigs on July 4 was 15.37 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg and a 4.84% rise [12][13] - The central economic committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote high-quality development of the marine economy, which is expected to benefit the aquaculture sector [21][36] - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.14 percentage points during the week of June 27 to July 4, with the agricultural index rising by 2.55% compared to a 1.40% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [32][34] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs was 133,800 heads, a decrease of 7,300 heads from the previous week, indicating a seasonal decline in demand due to rising temperatures [12] - The supply side continues to contract due to previous over-culling and losses from piglets after the Spring Festival, which is expected to support prices [12] Price Trends - The average price of pigs increased to 15.35 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week rise of 0.63 yuan/kg. The price of piglets decreased to 31.33 yuan/kg, down by 0.27 yuan/kg [6][39] - The price of corn increased to 2,511 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices decreased to 2,926 yuan/ton, down by 27 yuan/ton [4][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the improving investment logic in the pig sector [27] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to domestic market benefits and strong overseas demand [27] Market Performance - The aquaculture sector led the market gains, with stocks like Guolian Aquatic Products rising by 12.22%, Shennong Technology by 7.31%, and Dongrui Co. by 6.92% during the week [32][35]

Group 1 - The global economic landscape is shifting towards the ocean, with the recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasizing the importance of high-quality development in the marine economy [1] - The marine economy is a significant part of the national economy, showing strong growth, with a reported 5.7% year-on-year increase in marine GDP in Q1 of this year [1] - The government is prioritizing the development of the marine economy, aiming to establish national marine economic development demonstration zones by 2025 [1] Group 2 - Technological innovation is identified as the core driving force for the development of the marine economy, with a need to enhance independent innovation capabilities in marine technology [2] - Efficient collaboration and industrial upgrading are crucial for high-quality development, requiring improved policy guidance and coordination across sectors [2] - The integration of marine fisheries with land-based food processing is essential for extending industrial chains and increasing added value [2] Group 3 - Harmonious human-ocean relationships are fundamental for sustainable marine economic development, necessitating the protection of marine ecosystems [3] - The construction of a strong marine nation is a strategic task for national rejuvenation, requiring a focus on innovation, collaboration, industrial upgrading, and ecological friendliness [3] - A comprehensive resource allocation through top-level design is necessary to enhance the vitality of the marine economy and contribute to global marine economic development [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of studying and implementing the spirit of recent important speeches by General Secretary Xi Jinping and the decisions made by the Central Committee [2][3] - The meeting called for a thorough implementation of the Central Eight Regulations and a focus on problem identification and rectification to ensure high-quality performance of the Political Consultative Conference [3] - The meeting discussed the need to leverage Hainan's advantages and conduct in-depth research to contribute to the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy [3] Group 2 - The meeting reviewed and approved the trial work rules for the committee's contact with the masses and the conveners of various sectors, aiming to enhance the role of committee members and improve operational mechanisms [3] - Personnel matters were also discussed during the meeting, with key officials from the provincial committee in attendance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordinated efforts and policy support to achieve these goals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Unified National Market Construction - The basic requirements for advancing the unified national market include "five unifications and one openness," which are unified market infrastructure, unified government behavior standards, unified market supervision and law enforcement, unified resource markets, and continuous expansion of both domestic and foreign openness [1][2]. - Focus areas include addressing low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guiding companies to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2]. - The meeting called for the integration of domestic and foreign trade, facilitating the path from export to domestic sales, and nurturing a group of high-quality enterprises in both domestic and foreign trade [2]. Group 2: High-Quality Development of Marine Economy - The meeting stressed the importance of top-level design and increased policy support to encourage social capital participation in marine economic development [3]. - Key initiatives include enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology, fostering leading marine technology enterprises, and promoting the development of modern offshore fishing and marine biomedicine [3]. - The meeting also highlighted the need for marine ecological environment protection and the exploration of marine carbon sink accounting [3].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of adhering to the Party's leadership and enhancing the functions of various coordination institutions to form a strong working synergy [2] - The focus is on actively serving and integrating into the national unified market construction, improving resource allocation, and promoting high-quality development of the marine economy through innovative technological breakthroughs [2] - The meeting highlighted the need to deepen reforms and innovations to ensure the steady and sustainable practice of Chinese-style modernization in Xi'an [2] Group 2 - The meeting called for a focus on key tasks such as flood prevention, summer supply of electricity and water, and improving the efficiency of the petition work to ensure public safety and social stability [3] - It was stressed to implement "sunshine enrollment" requirements to ensure that the enrollment process for compulsory education is standardized, fair, and orderly [3] - The meeting also discussed the importance of supporting youth organizations and guiding young people to contribute to the high-quality development of Xi'an [2][3]