晚间，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指飘绿，纳指与标普500指数红盘。值得注意的是，特斯 拉崩跌超8%，不过，特朗普却表示，希望马斯克的企业能够蓬勃发展。 个股方面，特斯拉跳水大跌超8%，此前，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在财报电话会议中坦言，受美 国电动车税收抵免政策取消与关税冲击的影响，特斯拉或许接下来将经历几个"艰难季度"。 中概股方面，多数股票出现回调，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超1%，个股方面，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，小马 智行、新东方、网易跌超3%。 黄金方面，现货黄金跌超0.5%，COMEX黄金跌逾0.6%。 特朗普发声 今晚，特朗普刷屏。 美国总统特朗普发帖称："每个人都在说，我会通过取消（或者至少减少）埃隆从美国政府那里获得的 大量补贴来摧毁他的公司。这并非事实！我希望埃隆以及我们国家内的所有企业都能蓬勃发展，事实 上，要达到前所未有的繁荣程度！他们做得越好，美国就会发展得越好，这对我们所有人都是好事。我 们每天都在创造新的纪录，而我希望这种局面能够一直保持下去！" 此外，根据白宫最新发布的总统每日公开行程，特朗普将于当地时间周四16点造访美联储，此行正值外 界对美联储大楼翻新工程的批评声浪日益高 ...

Group 1 - Silver T+D prices rose on July 23, closing at 9432 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.13%, with a daily high of 9486 yuan/kg and a low of 9341 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The market's risk aversion has decreased as the U.S. reached agreements with more trade partners, contributing to the upward movement in silver prices [1] - The silver T+D market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with resistance levels identified at 9450-9478 and support levels at 9361-9367 [3] Group 2 - President Trump continues to criticize the Federal Reserve, but appears to have stepped back from plans to dismiss Chairman Powell, who shows no intention of resigning [2] - The White House is focusing on a $2.5 billion renovation project for the Federal Reserve, which has significantly exceeded its budget [2] - There is an expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting, as Powell and colleagues want to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation before making further moves [2]

北京时间7月22日深夜，全球金融市场迎来重要时刻。美联储主席鲍威尔发表关键讲话，中国资产表现强劲，多项因素交织影响市场走向。 美联储主席重磅表态稳定市场预期 市场层面，美股三大指数震荡分化表现不一。纳指盘初一度跳水跌超1%，截至北京时间23：10，跌幅收窄至0.44%。道指涨0.1%，标普500指数跌0.1%。中 国资产逆势走强成为亮点，纳斯达克中国金龙指数直线拉升，现涨1.3%。 三倍做多富时中国ETF大涨超3%表现突出。中概股方面呈现全面上涨态势，大全新能源大涨超16%领涨。蔚来涨超9%，百度、小鹏汽车涨超3%。拼多多、 唯品会涨超2%，多只个股实现显著涨幅。 掉期市场显示，美联储下周降息的可能性几乎为零。目前交易员们的定价押注美联储今年剩余时间将总共降息46个基点。这一水平与上周五相比几乎没有变 化。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为41.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.5%。 7月22日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在银行监管会议上发表开幕致辞。他明确表示，美国大型银行需要保证资本充足，有效管理风险。大型银行要能自由地进 行相互竞争，与非银行金融公司竞争，与其他司法管辖区 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, as reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, the game between economies has intensified, and market concerns have resurfaced. Trump's efforts to pressure Powell continue, which on one hand intensifies market unease and on the other hand loosens the expectation that the Fed will maintain high - interest rates. Under factors such as safe - haven demand and improved liquidity expectations, precious metals have risen strongly. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, precious metals consolidated horizontally and gave back some of yesterday's gains. London gold is trading around $3389, and London silver is around $38.9. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.64% at 784.84 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.56% at 9393 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around 97.865 [4] - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly and is currently trading around 4.39% [5] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate continued to consolidate at a high level and is currently trading around 7.175 [6] Important Information - Tariff trends: The EU is exploring broader potential counter - measures against US tariffs, with negotiation as the priority; US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality transactions; 19% of US tariffs on Indonesia may take effect before August 1st [7] - Fed turmoil: US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury; the Fed added a video tour of the headquarters renovation project on its website [7] - Fed observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2% [7] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariff implementation, market concerns have increased. Trump's pressure on the Fed has made the expectation of continuous high - interest rates waver. Precious metals have risen strongly due to safe - haven and liquidity expectations. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may cause inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [8][9][10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider continuing to hold long positions [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - Dollar index and precious metals trends: Presented the trends of the dollar index against London gold and London silver [15][16] - Real yields and precious metals trends: Showed the trends of real yields against London gold and London silver [17][18][21] - Domestic and foreign futures trends: Displayed the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [20][22] - Futures - spot trends: Presented the trends of gold and silver futures - spot differences [24][25] - Domestic - foreign price differences: Showed the domestic - foreign price differences of gold and silver [28][30] - Gold - silver ratio: Presented the gold - silver ratios of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [36][37] - ETF holdings: Displayed the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [39][40] - Futures positions: Showed the futures positions of gold and silver [41][42] - Futures inventories: Presented the futures inventories of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [43][45] - Trading volumes: Showed the trading volumes of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [46][47] - TD data: Included gold and silver TD deferred fees, and the delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][51][57] - Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates: Presented the relationships among nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The US economy shows resilience as the retail sales in June 2025 had a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, the highest since March this year, and the weekly initial jobless claims were lower than the previous value and expectations. This suppresses the performance of gold prices, but gold still shows resistance. Due to strong uncertainties before the US tariff policy deadline and repeated risk sentiment, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Information - The vice - chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce stated that Thailand will propose to exempt 90% of US goods from tariffs [1] - The EU plans to add service tariffs and export controls on the US as a retaliatory measure after the breakdown of trade negotiations [1] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that the EU's value - added tax is also a form of subsidy, and the US hopes to see VAT reduction and tariff cuts [1] - The nominee for South Korea's foreign minister said he is confident of reaching an agreement before the US tariff takes effect [1] Fed Information - Kugler believes it is appropriate to keep interest rate policy stable "for some time" [2] - Daly thinks whether to cut interest rates in July or September is not the most critical [2] - Bostic said it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term [2] - Waller believes the Fed should cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive economic indicators from the US, including a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail sales and a decrease in initial jobless claims to 221,000, which alleviates concerns about an economic slowdown [1][3] - The Chinese government is focusing on establishing long-term mechanisms for consumption policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to enhance service consumption and improve residents' consumption capacity through structural reforms [2][3] - The recent measures announced by the National Development and Reform Commission to encourage foreign investment reinvestment in China are part of a broader strategy to stabilize foreign investment and mitigate external uncertainties [3] Group 2 - The A-share market showed positive performance on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.50% to 3534.48 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.37% to 10913.84 points [4] - The market turnover reached 1.5935 trillion yuan, indicating increased trading activity compared to the previous trading day, with a margin balance of 1.9044 trillion yuan also showing an upward trend [5] - The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross signal, suggesting a positive momentum for certain stocks in the market [6]

从具体品类来看，主要依赖进口的家具、玩具、服装、鞋类和体育用品价格均出现上涨。其中，美国家 具价格环比上涨1%，玩具价格环比上涨1.8%。 美联社报道认为，6月份的CPI数据表明由关税引发的通胀开始显现，这一数据也使得美联储更有可能 维持当前利率不变。 中新社华盛顿7月15日电 (记者 陈孟统)美国劳工部15日发布数据称，美国6月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同 比上涨2.7%，环比上涨0.3%。 美国6月的通胀数据创造了今年2月以来的最大同比涨幅。上述数据也略高于市场普遍预期的2.6%。 美国6月CPI涨幅扩大主要受当月能源价格上涨影响，能源价格环比上涨0.9%，而前值为-1.0%。6月 份，美国汽油和燃油价格指数均"由跌转涨"，环比上涨1.0%。能源服务以及电力价格也延续了上个月的 上涨势头。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，美国6月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。 不过，白宫驳斥了"6月CPI数据显示关税产生负面影响"的说法。其在15日发表声明指出，尽管进口汽车 被征收了25%的关税、钢铝关税高达50%，但美国新车价格仍出现下降。 美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体表示，美国的"物价很低"，美联储应该 ...

如果美国通胀数据迟迟不上升，那么"最尴尬的人"，或许就是正在等待关税下通胀复燃信号的 鲍威尔，以及那些长期以来一直警告关税将推高美国通胀的经济学家…… 而 今晚，即将公布的美国6月CPI报告，可能就将成为一场关键的"正名之战"…… 目前，在连续四个月高估CPI读数后，不少华尔街机构再度在今晚关键的CPI押注中选择了"押 大" ——预计美国6月CPI数据将出现较高的增速。一些业内人士表示，若美国6月份CPI最终 出现明显上涨，将是美国关税上调正在推高通胀的第一个真正迹象。 事实上，前几个月不温不火的美国通胀数据表现，其实已经让美联储处于了一个较为尴尬的境 地——美联储官员们一直在为年内迄今按兵不动的利率政策进行辩护，他们给出的最常见理由 就是预期关税将推高通胀，但这一效应至今仍始终未见踪影。 而如果今晚的通胀数据表现依然温和——涨幅低于预期，那么几乎可以肯定会引发美国特朗普 再次表达强烈不满。他近来已多次呼吁美联储降息，并屡屡把矛头直接对准美联储主席鲍威尔 本人。 很有意思的是，由于特朗普关税政策带来的一系列不确定性因素，美联储自身其实也没法能精 准把控通胀何时会复燃以及具体的火热程度。在本月初出席欧洲央行年度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding interest rate outlook, primarily driven by differing expectations on the impact of tariff policies on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while the majority remain highly vigilant about potential inflation pressures from the Trump administration's tariff policies [3]. - The minutes indicate limited support for short-term rate cuts, with some officials believing there is no need for any cuts this year [3]. Divergent Opinions Among Officials - The meeting minutes outline three main factions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate paths: 1. The mainstream view anticipates rate cuts later in the year, excluding July. 2. A faction advocates for maintaining current rates throughout the year. 3. A minority believes immediate rate cuts should be enacted in the next meeting [3][4]. Economic Outlook and Implications - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with updated dot plots indicating that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by year-end, while 7 predict no cuts throughout 2025 [4]. - The differing views stem from varying assessments of the economic situation, with some officials believing moderate cuts could stabilize growth amid slowing sectors, while others are concerned about the inflationary effects of tariffs and the risks of premature cuts [4]. Market Impact - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve increase uncertainty regarding future interest rate movements, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming economic data and public statements from officials [4]. - The tension between Trump's pressure and the Federal Reserve's independent judgment complicates monetary policy formulation, with a focus on maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation as core considerations [4].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's current interest rate policy, claiming it is at least 3 percentage points too high, resulting in an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Trump is considering appointing a "shadow chairman" to the Federal Reserve before Chairman Powell's term ends next year to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates [1]