Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are attempting to close above $4240 [1] - The market is reacting to rising US Treasury yields, leading to profit-taking after a strong rebound [4] - The relative strength index remains at a moderate level, indicating potential for additional upward momentum in the short term [4] Group 2: Silver Market - The gold-silver ratio has risen above 79.00, causing silver prices to retreat to the $53.00 level [1][7] - Technically, silver needs to stay above the resistance level of $52.60-$52.80 to gain additional upward momentum in the short term [7] Group 3: Platinum Market - Platinum attempted to break through the resistance level of $1620-$1630 but lost momentum and retreated [9] - Platinum remains within the range between support at $1520-$1530 and resistance at $1620-$1630 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic silver futures have surged, reaching a historical high of 12,639 yuan/kg, with London silver also nearing its historical peak of 54.468 USD/oz, driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown and increased liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rebound in silver prices is primarily attributed to the conclusion of the U.S. government shutdown, which is expected to inject liquidity into the market and bolster expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3]. - Geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven investments into precious metals, with silver attracting attention due to its significantly lower price compared to gold [3]. - The gold-silver ratio, currently around 78, is a key market indicator reflecting the relative price relationship and differing supply-demand expectations for both metals [3][5]. Group 2: Historical Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, when the gold-silver ratio declines, silver, which has stronger industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [5]. - The current environment, characterized by the beginning of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, suggests that the gold-silver ratio may have further room to decline [5]. - Technical analysis indicates that a "cup and handle" pattern for silver prices has been activated, suggesting a strong medium to long-term outlook for silver prices [6]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, has been rising, contributing to lower silver inventories and supporting price increases [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has seen a significant surge, particularly in silver, which has returned to above $50 per ounce after a notable increase of over 4.5% on November 10, 2023 [1] Price Movement - Since early April 2023, the price of silver has risen from just above $28 per ounce to over $54 per ounce by October 16, marking a maximum increase of over 90%, outperforming gold [3] - After a decline post-October 17, where silver prices fell to above $45 per ounce, the market has shown recovery, with prices stabilizing above $50 per ounce as of November 11 [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. government has classified silver as a strategic resource, elevating its status from an industrial commodity to one of national security and technological independence [4] - From 2016 to 2020, total silver supply was 5.087 billion ounces, while total demand was 4.902 billion ounces, indicating a relatively loose supply situation. However, since 2021, global silver demand has exceeded supply, leading to a projected supply-demand gap of 210.5 million ounces in 2024 and 187.6 million ounces in 2025 [5] - Silver's role as an industrial material, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, is driving demand. The global photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 655 GW by 2025, requiring 160 million ounces of silver [5] Market Influences - The rising price of gold, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, U.S. debt crises, and central bank purchases, has also positively impacted silver prices. The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106, providing attractive investment opportunities [6] - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle has reduced the opportunity cost of holding silver, attracting more investment into the silver market [6] Future Outlook - Optimistic market views suggest that silver has broken through technical resistance levels, with potential for further increases, possibly reaching $100 per ounce, especially with a declining dollar [6] - Cautious perspectives highlight potential selling pressure above $40 per ounce and the risk of profit-taking if the gold-silver ratio falls below 70 [6][7] - The rising costs of silver may lead the photovoltaic industry to seek "de-silverization" technologies, potentially reducing future demand [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of the lithium sector and the stability of gold prices due to central bank purchases [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the central bank's gold purchases are expected to support a stable gold price outlook, while the lithium sector shows unexpected strength, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these areas [3][4]. - The overall performance of the metals sector has been mixed, with significant year-to-date gains in various sub-sectors, particularly in energy metals and copper [10][5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.19%. The non-ferrous metals index slightly declined by 0.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.86 percentage points [5][4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 75.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 56.92 percentage points [5][9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper, aluminum, and lithium prices experiencing fluctuations. For instance, lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2.73% week-on-week [4][10]. - The report notes that the price of copper has decreased by 1.57% to $10,717 per ton, while aluminum prices have shown a slight increase of 1.22% [15][44]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the metals sector, highlighting their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. For example, Zijin Mining has a stock price of 30.17 yuan with a PE ratio of 38 [20]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold with a stock price of 35.21 yuan and a PE ratio of 70, and Huayou Cobalt with a stock price of 64.34 yuan and a PE ratio of 36 [20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the supply of copper is tightening due to increased demand from the manufacturing sector, with the operating rates for copper products showing positive trends [29][4]. - In the aluminum sector, the report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints in the future [44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is "★★★", indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. With the Fed's internal differences, the US government shutdown, and the possible non - release of this week's non - farm payroll data, the market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals are building a high - level oscillation platform, suggesting a temporary wait - and - see approach. Regarding silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell stated that "another rate cut is not a certainty", causing the probability of a December rate cut expected by traders to drop from nearly 100% a week ago to 65.3%, removing the interest - rate decline support for non - interest - bearing gold [2] - The doves advocate significant rate cuts, while the hawks are cautious about further rate cuts due to concerns about inflation and financial market risks. The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" stage, and gold prices face short - term callback risks due to uncertainties such as unclear Fed policies, data vacuum caused by the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is represented by three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have formed a high - level oscillation platform. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell indicated that another rate cut is not certain. Traders' expectation of a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to 65.3%, causing non - interest - bearing gold to lose the support of falling interest rates [2] - The dovish representative, Governor Milan, advocates significant rate cuts, while hawks like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee are concerned about inflation, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid believes that further rate cuts carry high risks [3] - The market has entered a typical "high - level interest - rate" phase. Three uncertainties, including the unclear Fed policy outlook, data vacuum due to the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy, are putting pressure on gold prices. Gold prices still face a risk of further correction in the short term [3] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions of Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals continued to oscillate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected and the previous value. Precious metals have formed a high - level oscillation platform, and it's recommended to wait and see. For silver, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise [2] Fed's Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% last week, the second cut this year. Chairman Powell said another cut is not certain. Traders' expectation of a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to 65.3% [2] - Dovish and hawkish officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Dovish officials advocate significant cuts, while hawkish officials are concerned about inflation and the risks of further cuts [3] Market Risks and Outlook - The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" phase. Three uncertainties are pressuring gold prices, and there is a risk of further short - term correction [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - COMEX gold prices have entered a range - bound oscillation, once falling below $3900 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices are also range - bound, falling below $46 per ounce. Multiple factors such as the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the long - term US government shutdown, and the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause the COMEX gold price to enter a phased range - bound oscillation after a pull - back from its high, and the silver price to enter a range - bound oscillation after a sharp drop from its high [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - COMEX gold prices entered a range - bound oscillation and once fell below $3900 per ounce, while COMEX silver prices were range - bound and fell below $46 per ounce [45]. - On the early morning of October 30th, the Federal Reserve ended its monetary policy meeting and announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%, meeting market expectations [45]. - On the morning of October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents met in Busan, South Korea, to discuss bilateral economic and trade relations. The bilateral economic and trade relations tend to ease, sending a positive signal to the global economy [45]. Short - Term Outlook - Sino - US economic and trade relations are temporarily easing [45]. - The long - term US government shutdown is dragging down the US economy, especially the employment market, and the Federal Reserve may turn dovish [45]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to ease within the year [45]. Price and Ratio - Gold and silver prices are both oscillating, the gold - silver ratio is decreasing, the gold - oil ratio has stabilized after a decline, and the copper - gold ratio is decreasing [7]. Position - Domestic gold futures positions have slightly decreased, and domestic silver futures positions have slightly increased [13]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - The report presents the exchange rate and interest rate spreads between the US and Europe, the US and the UK, and the US and Japan, as well as the comparison of US Treasury bond spreads with overseas and exchange rate changes [16][17][18]. Inventory - The inventory data of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are presented, but specific trends are not clearly described [27]. ETF - Gold ETFs have slightly increased, and silver ETFs have slightly decreased [29][32]. CFTC Net Long Position - The net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds are presented [35][38]. Central Bank Gold Reserve - The global major central bank gold reserves and their growth rates are presented [40]. Basis - The gold TD - SHFE basis and silver basis data from 2022 to 2025 are presented [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - After nine consecutive weeks of increase, international gold prices have experienced a notable correction, with a weekly decline of approximately 3.3% as of October 24, 2023, closing at $4,113.05 per ounce. Despite this, gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 57%, supported by central bank purchases, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and strong inflows into gold ETFs. Analysts suggest that the current correction is more of a technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal, indicating that gold remains a crucial asset for long-term investment [1][2][3]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including safe-haven demand, monetary policy expectations, and speculative investments. The primary driver remains investor demand, with central bank purchases acting as an additional variable. Since 2003, investment demand has been the main force behind gold price movements [3][6]. Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Gold and silver are fundamentally different markets, with gold serving primarily as a store of value and silver having significant industrial applications. The gold-to-silver ratio has fluctuated, indicating market dynamics, but should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Each metal should be analyzed based on its unique fundamentals [4][5]. Investor Behavior and Market Corrections - The current market shows signs of overcrowding in gold trading, with potential for significant corrections if dollar liquidity tightens. Observing market sentiment and news can provide early warning signals for potential corrections. Historically, gold prices tend to dip during periods of liquidity tightening but often rebound afterward [7][8]. Long-term Outlook for Gold - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with potential for prices to reach $5,000 or even $6,000 per ounce, driven by increasing public debt and a shift away from fiat currencies. The demand for gold is expected to persist as investors seek hard assets. However, external factors can lead to significant price fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - After nine consecutive weeks of increase, international gold prices have experienced a notable correction, with a weekly decline of approximately 3.3% as of October 24, 2023, despite a year-to-date increase of 57% [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The strong performance of gold is supported by several factors, including continuous purchases by central banks, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and significant inflows into gold ETFs [1] - Investment demand remains the core driver of gold prices, with central banks acting as buyers but not the primary force behind price increases [2][3] - The current market dynamics indicate that the recent correction is more of a technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal, allowing for the digestion of previous gains [1][5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term support factors for gold remain intact, emphasizing its importance as a core asset in investment portfolios [1] - The potential for gold prices to reach higher levels, such as $5,000 or even $7,000, exists, particularly in the context of rising public debt in the U.S. and a shift away from fiat currencies [7] - Market volatility is expected, with gold prices likely to rebound after temporary declines during periods of liquidity tightening [6][7] Group 3: Gold vs. Silver Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has returned to around 80, indicating differing market dynamics between the two precious metals, with gold primarily serving as a store of value and silver having stronger industrial applications [3][4] - The analysis of the gold-silver ratio can provide insights into market behavior, although it is essential to consider the fundamental differences between the two metals [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment, and silver has seen a rapid price decline as the spot contradiction eases. The gold - silver ratio has risen from 78.6 to 85.6, mainly due to the sharp drop in silver prices. The first target for silver's downward movement is $47.5, and the second is $43 - 44. Gold needs a monthly - level price adjustment, but its bottom support is stronger than silver's [3]. - The US economic outlook is complex. Although the real demand is not weak, the expectations are affected by policies. The US government shutdown has continued for four weeks, and 10 - month hard data may be missing. Soft data shows an improvement in October's Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs compared to September, with the new orders composite index reaching its highest level this year. However, the manufacturing employment index has dropped to a three - month low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - $15.345 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - $22.7 per ounce [9]. - The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.2135 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - $0.27 per ounce [12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was - 2.77 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - The silver spot - futures price spread was - 15 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.12 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The silver monthly spread was 46 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold, the total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 4.20 yuan per gram, and the cost of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.69 yuan per gram [30][31]. - For silver, the total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 50.54 yuan per kilogram, and the cost of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 178.05 yuan per kilogram [32][33]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. The same was true for silver [34]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.23 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 51.3%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389 tons to 15,456 tons, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 33.7%. Gold futures inventory increased by 2.41 tons, and silver futures inventory decreased by 255 tons to 664 tons [36][38][41]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Position - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. 3.1.8 ETF Position - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 12.31 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 77.59 tons [49][51]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 78.6 to 85.6 [54]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 13.86% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rate - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Not summarized in detail as only relevant charts are provided without specific text analysis [67] 3.2.3 Non - Farm Employment Performance - Not summarized in detail as only relevant charts are provided without specific text analysis [70] 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not summarized in detail as only relevant titles are provided without specific content [75] 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not summarized in detail as only relevant titles are provided without specific content [77] 3.2.6 Fed Rate - Cut Probability - Not summarized in detail as only a title is provided without specific content [79]