2025年全年实现5%的增长，经济总量跨越140万亿元大关——"十四五"规划收官之年，中国经济交出了 一份来之不易、难能可贵的成绩单，在复杂变局中书写了高质量发展的新篇章，彰显大国经济的强大抗 压能力、发展定力与内生动力。 难能可贵在，逆风破浪的"稳"与"进"。经济的稳定运行，是抵御风险的最大底气。当前，全球经济增长 动能不足，地缘政治冲突、保护主义升温等"逆风"强劲，同时，国内困难挑战也在增多。在这样复杂严 峻的形势下，中国经济以领跑主要经济体的增速，连续多年贡献全球30%左右的经济增长，成为推动世 界经济增长的稳定器和动力源。这份"稳"，不是风平浪静中的顺水行舟，而是劈波斩浪的坚韧前行；这 份"进"，是无惧风险挑战，始终坚持高质量发展方向不动摇，坚定不移深化改革扩大开放。全年经济社 会发展主要目标任务的圆满实现，源于党中央的坚强领导，源于制度优势的充分彰显，源于全国上下同 心同德的拼搏奋斗。 难能可贵在，质效提升的"新"与"实"。2025年的中国经济，最亮眼的风景莫过于新质生产力的蓬勃生 长。产业端"向新而行"：我国成为世界上首个国内有效发明专利拥有量超500万件的国家，科技创新和 产业创新融合发展成果厚 ...

[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 风雨之后，等待彩虹 [Table_Industry] 房地产 地产 12 月观察及数据点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 陈昭颖(分析师) | 021-23183953 | chenzhaoying@gtht.com | S0880525100002 | 本报告导读： 2025 年，全年地产有较明显的下行，但符合我们年初的判断，一是房企有正现金流、 二是全年无风险，展望 2026 年，视角也将再次切换，从金融到经济。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《第 3 周成交回升，商业地产首付比下调有 利稳定市场》2026.01.18 房地产《第 2 周成交回落，期待未来政策对冲外部 不利影响》 ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year at constant prices, marking a successful completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - China's economic growth rate ranks among the top of major economies, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth despite a challenging external environment [2] Research and Development - R&D expenditure intensity in 2025 reached 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, with China's innovation index entering the global top ten [2] - Investment in basic research accounted for 7.08% of total R&D spending, achieving a historical high [1] Manufacturing and Technology - The added value of the digital product manufacturing industry grew by 9.3% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [2] - High-tech manufacturing value added grew at an average annual rate of 9.2% over the past five years, driven by advancements in AI, 5G, and other digital technologies [3] Patent and Innovation - In 2025, China became the first country to hold over 5 million effective domestic invention patents, maintaining the top position in PCT international patent applications for six consecutive years [4] - Significant achievements in high-end equipment and green energy sectors indicate robust investment and development in emerging fields [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also increased the growth forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. AI - driven IT investment growth is becoming an important driver for the global economy [2][16]. - The Chinese economy's 2025 "report card" shows that GDP grew by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with the service industry's share in GDP rising to 57.7%, and final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, while fixed - asset investment declined by 3.8% [2][13]. - In the stock market, on Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation with major indices showing different trends. A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, and AI is a strong driver for corporate performance growth [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous period and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 49.8% in the previous period, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous period [1]. - Social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous period, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous period and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's 2025 economic data shows overall growth in multiple sectors, with a decline in fixed - asset investment, especially in real - estate development investment [2]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss Trump's tariff threat and consider counter - measures, and is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures contracts starting from January 21 [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - COMEX gold futures' February contract reached a record high of $4698 per ounce on January 19, approaching the $4700 mark, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of a decline in the US dollar's credit. Gold ETFs and futures are more suitable for short - term investment [4]. - Japan will use 39 billion yen in reserve funds to ensure rare - earth supply [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved an increase in tin futures delivery warehouses and their approved storage capacities in Guangdong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early January, key steel enterprises' daily crude - steel output was 1.997 million tons, a 10.51% increase from the previous period but a 3.29% decrease year - on - year. Pig - iron and steel production also showed different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [7]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, which will enhance the global iron - ore supply [7]. - Shanxi produced over 13 billion tons of coal in 2025, and 65 billion tons during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, an increase of 19 billion tons compared to the 13th Five - Year Plan [7]. - Coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, enriching the risk - management tools for the coal - coke - steel industry chain [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 price forecast for TTF natural gas to 36 euros [9]. - Venezuela has officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. - After Maduro's downfall, many trade and oil companies are competing for the deal to export Venezuelan crude oil to the US [9][10]. - China National Coal Group will promote the clean and efficient use of coal, transforming it from a fuel to "raw material + material" [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The average price of live pigs rebounded this week. On January 16, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.6% from January 9, and the average price this week was 18 yuan per kilogram, up 0.3% from last week [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 19, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan after 86.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases matured [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - China's 2025 economic data, including population changes, shows a decrease in the population by 339,000 [13][14]. - In December 2025, housing prices in major Chinese cities showed different trends, with some cities' price declines narrowing and Shanghai's new - home prices rising [14]. - The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance will hold press conferences to introduce relevant economic policies [14]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized high - quality development, calling for more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [15]. - The central bank will announce the January LPR on January 20 [15]. - The Supreme People's Procuratorate has made arrangements to use legal power to serve high - quality development, including cracking down on economic crimes and safeguarding the capital market [17]. - The CSRC's 2026 system work meeting has outlined a clear path for capital - market reform [18]. - In 2025, the number and scale of registered insurance asset - management products decreased [18]. - There is a heated discussion about the "2026 time - deposit maturity wave", with different views on the scale, but most banks are not worried [19]. - There are several bond - related events, such as bond rating changes and early redemptions [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The bond market showed an overall weak and oscillating trend, with most Treasury - bond futures closing down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rising slightly. Some bonds like Vanke and AVIC Industry Finance bonds rose [21]. - The money - market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [22][23]. - The yields of some financial bonds were determined in the bidding process, and European bond yields mostly increased [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9636 on January 20, up 54 basis points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was 7.0051, up 27 basis points [25]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.32% in New York's late trading, and most non - US currencies rose [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income states that the issuance of new special bonds this year is faster than in previous years but has not significantly accelerated. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 2026 is 2.1179 trillion yuan, similar to the same period in 2025 [27]. - CICC Fixed - Income suggests that in the current fluctuating interest - rate bond yield environment, credit - bond yields may follow the fluctuations, especially for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. It also recommends paying attention to short - term trading opportunities and non - financial credit bonds with a remaining term of about 5 years. The future spread of science - and - technology innovation bonds depends on the change in the scale of science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs [27]. - CITIC Securities believes that Trump's tariff threat is a means to test the EU's attitude, and the change of Greenland's territory is difficult to achieve. If the US takes real actions, gold may benefit, the US dollar's credit may be damaged, and European assets may be under pressure [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares had a shrinking - volume oscillation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total market turnover was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day. Power - infrastructure, AVIC - related, and Hainan Free - Trade - Port concepts led the gains, while semiconductors and consumer electronics led the losses [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, with pharmaceutical stocks leading the decline and aviation stocks rising. South - bound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$2.3 billion [32]. - A - share listed companies' 2025 annual report performance pre - announcements are accelerating, with 156 out of 451 companies reporting positive pre - announcements, and 42 companies expecting a net - profit increase of over 100% year - on - year [32].

会上，江宁开发区2025年度"新百亿""新三十亿"企业、科技创新"新锐"、项目建设"骏马"及产值增 长"贡献"等4张榜单率先发布，展现了园区企业的强劲动能。随后，一系列重磅政策方案集中发布："稳 增长促发展十条"举措为企业增添新动力；《教育科技人才一体化发展行动方案》和《"人工智能+"实施 方案》指明未来创新路径；企业全生命周期服务、招商引资激励等三大方案构建招引服务闭环；片区平 台专项考核办法则激发了各板块比拼的活力。江宁区委主要负责人表示，江宁开发区作为全区经济发展 的"主战场、主阵地"，必须切实增强"挑大梁"的使命担当，以更大魄力、更实举措推动项目突破与产业 攻坚。 项目攻坚"拉满弓"，产业创新"加速跑"。同一天，建邺区举行南京河西中央科创区暨AI时空·南京人 工智能国际社区建设推进会。会议释放强烈信号：建邺区将发挥"总部大厂牵头、政府政策赋能、市场 机制驱动"特色优势，持续深耕"AI+金融""AI芯片"等六大赛道，打造全省"人工智能+"产业标杆示范区。 会上，2026年河西中央科创区建设二十件重点工作和《AI时空·南京人工智能国际社区建设三年行 动计划（2026—2028年）》正式发布，将以"三横两纵 ...

1月19日，市委书记周红波走访人民日报社江苏分社、新华社江苏分社、中央广播电视总台江苏总 站等中央主要新闻单位在宁机构，看望慰问新闻工作者，对各新闻单位长期以来给予南京经济社会发展 的关心支持表示感谢。 在人民日报社江苏分社，周红波参观去年分社推出的一系列精品力作，了解"领导留言板"群众意见 建议收集办理情况，并与社长邓建胜交流，感谢分社聚焦南京推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合等主 题，生动反映南京锚定"四个着力点"，以高质量发展实绩为全国全省大局作出的新贡献。走进新华社江 苏分社，周红波与社长刘亢交流，了解分社在新闻报道、资政建言、国际传播等方面的工作成果，听取 新华社数字视听（微短剧）预审服务中心等合作项目介绍，感谢分社通过长江文化南京论坛等活动讲好 发生在南京的中国故事，提升城市美誉度。来到中央广播电视总台江苏总站，周红波参观轻量化演播系 统等新技术运用演示，详细了解总台与我市参与共建的石城实验室科研成果，与站长季明交流总台重点 频道、重点栏目对南京报道情况，感谢新闻工作者用镜头记录城市发展、展现昂扬向上的城市面貌。 走访中，周红波说，去年以来南京高质量发展取得新进展、新成效，成绩的取得离不开中央在宁新 ...

李强主持召开专家、企业家和教科文卫体等领域代表座谈会 听取对政府工作报告、"十五五"规划纲要的意见建议 新华社北京1月19日电 中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强1月19日下午主持召开专家、企业家 和教科文卫体等领域代表座谈会，听取对《政府工作报告》和《"十五五"规划纲要（草案）》两个征求 意见稿的意见建议。 李强希望大家发挥各自优势，展现更大担当，积极反映经济社会发展中的实际情况，提出意见建 议，为推动高质量发展作出更多贡献。 吴政隆参加座谈会。 《政府工作报告》和《"十五五"规划纲要（草案）》两个征求意见稿已向各地区、各部门同步征求 意见。 座谈会上，明明、贺佳、闫俊杰、张智刚、龚旗煌、余晓晖、王拥军、周莉亚、石宇奇等先后发 言。大家认为，去年是很不平凡的一年，面对复杂严峻的外部形势，我们国家加大逆周期调节力度，在 稳增长、调结构、惠民生等方面推出很多务实举措，发展中的积极因素不断积累，要素流动持续活跃， 市场信心明显增强，取得的成绩实属不易。大家还结合各自领域，就做好今年和"十五五"时期经济社会 发展工作提出了意见建议。 在认真听取大家发言后，李强指出，过去一年，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下， ...

1月19日下午，国务院总理李强主持召开专家、企业家和教科文卫体等领域代表座谈会时表示，。 要深入贯彻落实中央"十五五"规划建议和中央经济工作会议的部署要求，，。 要在推动高质量发展中切实保障和改善民生，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，，持续增进 民生福祉。 1月19日，在全国检察长会议上，最高人民检察院对充分运用法治力量服务高质量发展等方面作出部署。 1月19日下午，国务院总理李强主持召开专家、企业家和教科文卫体等领域代表座谈会时表示，。 要深入贯彻落实中央"十五五"规划建议和中央经济工作会议的部署要求，，。 。 在这支团队中，研发人员占比达到73.8%，约三分之一拥有海外学习或科研背景。 当地时间1月19日，据环球网科技援引外媒Futurism报道，。 。 选取公社、同花顺、东财、淘股吧人气前五的票，截止时间为发文前。 韭研公社：特变电工、保变电气、中国西电、东方通信、南钢股份 同 花 顺：海格通信、特变电工、岩山科技、中国西电、金风科技 东方财富：特变电工、中国西电、海格通信、汉缆股份、金风科技 淘 股 吧：中国西电、保变电气、康强电子、海格通信、新华百货 相关概念股：君亭酒店、中国中免等 ...

在热烈的掌声中,于海田代表市政府向大会作政府工作报告。政府工作报告分为三个部分:一是2025年工 作和"十四五"发展回顾;二是"十五五"发展主要目标任务;三是2026年重点工作。 于海田说,过去一年,面对错综复杂的国际形势和艰巨繁重的改革发展稳定任务,我们坚持以习近平新时代 中国特色社会主义思想为指导,深入学习贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神,全面贯彻落实习近平总 书记视察山东重要讲话和重要指示批示精神,按照省委、省政府决策部署,在市委坚强领导下,扎实开展深 入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育,以"项目提升年"为总牵引,主动融入服务山东绿色低碳高质量发展先 行区建设,全力以赴稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,较好完成了市十八届人大四次会议确定的目标任 务,省会高质量发展取得新成效。 于海田说,2025年各项工作任务全面完成,标志着济南市"十四五"规划圆满收官。过去五年是济南发展进 程中极不寻常、极不平凡的五年。习近平总书记三次视察山东、两次亲临济南,为山东发展把脉定向、 擘画蓝图,赋予山东"走在前、挑大梁"的使命担当,极大激发了泉城儿女团结奋斗、勇毅前行的磅礴力 量。五年来,我们始终牢记习近平总书记殷殷嘱托,深入 ...

蒿慧杰在走访中强调，事业发展关键在人、关键在干部、关键在担当。各级领导干部要牢固树立和 践行正确政绩观，深化干部作风能力提升年活动，以功成不必在我的胸襟和功成必定有我的担当，抓大 事、办急事、谋专题、建机制、守规矩，埋头苦干、绵绵用力、久久为功，统筹做好发展、安全、民 生、党建等工作，以实际行动和实绩实效坚定拥护"两个确立"、坚决做到"两个维护"。 1月19日，省委常委、市委书记蒿慧杰到市人大常委会、市政府、市政协机关走访调研时强调，要 深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神和习近平总书记历次来陕考察重要讲话重要指示，心往一处想、 劲往一处使、拧成一股绳，团结全市广大干部群众牢记嘱托、感恩奋进，推动西安高质量发展现代化建 设取得新成效。 市委常委、市委秘书长和文全，市人大常委会、市政府、市政协领导班子成员参加有关活动。 在市政府机关，蒿慧杰与市政府领导班子成员交流工作情况，充分肯定工作成效。蒿慧杰指出，要 全面贯彻中央经济工作会议精神，认真落实省委十四届九次全会和省委经济工作会议部署，牢牢把握高 质量发展这个首要任务，扎实推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实 现"十五五"良好开局。 在市政 ...