智通财经5月8日电，在岸、离岸人民币对美元双双跌穿7.24关口。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives, and it is recommended to buy index futures on dips. Short-term IC and IM have more elasticity, while medium- and long-term IH and IF are more attractive in terms of valuation [4]. - The short-term funds are neutral. After the unexpected implementation of US tariffs, there are signs of easing. Although global trade uncertainties still exist, government bonds have gradually returned to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased, while the import and export boom has decreased [7]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, the four major A-share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8% to close at 3342.67 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to close at 10104.13 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.51% to close at 1996.51 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.36% to close at 1030.19 points. The market turnover was 15,051 billion yuan, an increase of 140.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next-month contracts are 156.29, 130.09, 46.63, and 24.3 points, and -19.98%, -17.67%, -9.51%, and -7.11% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles are 3%, 2%, 6%, and 14% respectively. The futures-spot price difference has been repaired but is still at a low level [3]. (3) Government Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, most government bond futures declined. The 2-year government bond futures fell 0.01% to close at 102.31 points; the 5-year government bond futures fell 0.08% to close at 106 points; the 10-year government bond futures fell 0.19% to close at 108.85 points; the 30-year government bond futures fell 0.62% to close at 120.14 points [4]. - In terms of the current bond, the CTD bonds of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures have corresponding net basis and IRR. In terms of the money market, the central bank's net withdrawal was 33.53 billion yuan. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

2025年5月8日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 金十数据5月8日讯， 美元/人民币报7.2073，上调（人民币贬值）68点； 欧元/人民币报8.1596，下调54点； 港元/人民币报0.9287，下调2.1点； 英镑/人民币报9.5949，下调204点； 澳元/人民币报4.6431，下调445点； 加元/人民币报5.2197，下调130点； 100日元/人民币报5.0202，下调143点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1692，下调1244点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2931，下调427点； 人民币/林吉特报0.58805，上调15.6点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7618，上调422点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5750，下调158点。 ...

| 名称 | 最新点位 | 、涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3342.67 | +26.56(0.8%) | | 深证指数 | 10104.13 | +21.79(0.22%) | | 创业板指 | 1996.51 | +10.1(0.51%) | | | 日期:5月7日 制图:21投资通 | | | 名标 | 报价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 41113.97 | 2 0.7% | | 纳斯达克 | > 17738.16 | 0.27% | | 标普500 | 5631.28 | 0 43% | | 富时100 | 8559.33 | -0.44% | | COMEX黄金 | 3376.50 | 9-1.35% | | WTI原油 | 58.07 | -1.73% | | 美元指数 | 99.87 | -0.01% | | 美元离岸人民币 | 7.23 | 0.01% | | | 注:美元指数、汇率为最新价,数据截至北京时间6:30,其它为收盘价 制图:21投资通 | | 重磅资讯①美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变 据新华 ...

5月7日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 720.05人民币 100欧元 816.5人民币 100日元 5.0345人民币 100港元 92.891人民币 100英镑 961.53人民币 100澳元 468.76人民币 100新西兰元 433.58人民币 100新加坡元 559.08人民币 100瑞士法郎 871.96人民币 100加元 523.27人民币 100人民币110.94澳门元 100人民币58.649马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1129.36俄罗斯卢布 100人民币252.89南非兰特 100人民币19281韩元 100人民币51.002阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.071沙特里亚尔 100人民币4948.69匈牙利福林 100人民币52.33波兰兹罗提 100人民币91.37丹麦克朗 100人民币132.74瑞典克朗 100人民币142.51挪威克朗 100人民币536.219土耳其里拉 100人民币272.68墨西哥比索 100人民币453.13泰铢（完） 本文转自【新华社】 新华社北京5月7日电 中国外汇交易中心5月7日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、澳 元、新西兰元、新加 ...

2025年5月7日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.2005，下调（人民币升值）3点； 欧元/人民币报8.1650，上调115点； 港元/人民币报0.92891，下调1.2点； 英镑/人民币报9.6153，上调345点； 澳元/人民币报4.6876，上调259点； 加元/人民币报5.2327，上调125点； 100日元/人民币报5.0345，上调76点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.2936，上调1230点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3358，上调324点； 人民币/林吉特报0.58649，上调34.3点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7196，下调468点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5908，上调36点。 ...

中信证券研报认为，近期，人民币汇率的快速拉升或与美元指数偏弱运行、消息面驱动市场对于中美谈 判预期的升温等有关。后续来看，人民币汇率的扰动和支撑因素相对均衡，人民币汇率短期或围绕新中 枢双向波动，央行汇率政策更多侧重于纠偏单边预期。其中，压力主要来自美国对华加征关税对我国出 口基本面的冲击逐步凸显，并导致经常账户顺差有所收窄以及直接投资和证券投资账户的波动，但对于 人民币汇率更为重要的是国内对冲政策的力度和中美经贸磋商的进度。支撑因素中，一是美国经济数据 持续走弱预期下，美元指数或偏弱运行，人民币汇率的被动贬值压力有所缓和；二是全球投资者对于非 美货币以及非美资产的需求边际抬升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by external factors, including a weak US dollar index and heightened market expectations for US-China trade negotiations [1][2][4]. Group 1: External Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy has raised concerns about the US economic fundamentals and inflation, leading to a decline in trust among foreign investors in dollar-denominated assets, resulting in a 4.37% drop in the dollar index in April [2]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar triggering a strong exchange guarantee reflect an initial increase in demand for non-USD currencies and assets [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's evaluation of the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the US has contributed to the rise in expectations for US-China talks, supporting the offshore RMB exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Domestic Factors and Policy Implications - The pressure on the RMB exchange rate is expected to increase due to the gradual impact of US tariffs on China's export fundamentals, leading to a narrowing of the current account surplus [3][4]. - Domestic policies and the basic economic situation are expected to play a stabilizing role for the exchange rate, with a relatively restrained use of exchange rate stabilization tools in April [2][3]. - The potential for a temporary appreciation of the RMB may trigger some demand for currency settlement, which could further increase volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The balance of pressure and support factors for the RMB exchange rate appears relatively even, with expectations of short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium [1][4]. - The weakening of the US economy is expected to continue, which may lead to a sustained weak dollar index, alleviating some depreciation pressure on the RMB [5]. - The demand for non-USD currencies and assets is expected to increase marginally, providing additional support for the RMB [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by a weaker USD and a thawing in China-US trade relations, with future focus on tariff negotiations and US economic data impacting the USD index [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown a "short-term rapid appreciation," influenced by the weakening of the USD and narrowing China-US interest rate differentials [1] - The relationship between the RMB exchange rate and both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is observed to be vaguely positively correlated, while the exchange rate is strongly correlated with the China-US interest rate differential [1] - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB has contributed to the recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation phase has ended, leading to potential fluctuations [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis Insights - From a technical perspective, the RMB exchange rate is currently in a phase of oscillation after the rapid appreciation, which may cause disturbances in market trends [1] - The analysis indicates that if the RMB rebounds to certain levels, it may signal further downward movement, while a return to specific thresholds could indicate reduced downward space [1][23] - The PCR indicator, which tracks short-term market timing, has shown a slight increase, indicating a high-risk zone, suggesting that if it remains elevated, a market adjustment may be imminent [1]