美国商务部长卢特尼克称，欧盟将支付15%的关税，"一些小东西"除外。 美国三大股指期货和小盘股指期货至多涨约0.1%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock index showed a mild upward trend with narrow - range fluctuations today, and the trading volume in the two markets slightly decreased. The basis of each futures variety and the option position PCR had mixed changes, indicating no obvious change in market sentiment. After digesting last week's positive news, the stock index may return to a mild upward state. This week, focus on the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting. If there is more positive news than expected, it may drive the stock index up; if it is lower than market expectations, the stock index may adjust, but the overall positive trend remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions and wait and see [4] Market Review - The stock index fluctuated strongly today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.21%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 450.29 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC rose with increasing volume, IH rose with decreasing volume, and IM fell with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing it as an important measure for the public. Local governments should refine work plans and allocate subsidy funds on time. - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly, and the driving effect of the "two new" policies continued to appear [3] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.09 | - 0.04 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.2993 | 4.6357 | 8.8191 | 18.6257 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 0.0547 | - 0.087 | 1.1258 | 2.6844 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.3839 | 9.5447 | 22.869 | 33.8751 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.3663 | - 0.1993 | 0.3134 | 1.1728 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.12 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.44 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.14 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 17423.07 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | - 450.29 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the domestic economic fundamentals remained under pressure in June, the financial data showed that the effects of the loose monetary policy had begun to emerge, which might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The market had high expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Sino-US trade negotiations this week, and the stock index might continue to rise in the near term. In the long run, the central Huijin's increase in ETF holdings also had a driving effect on guiding long-term funds into the market, injecting confidence into the market, and the stock index also had the potential to rise. The strategy suggested buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of most futures contracts rose, with the IF, IH, and IC contracts increasing, while the IM main contract (2509) decreased. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 4122.0, up 6.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the IF - IH current - month contract spread decreasing by 2.0 to 1325.2 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased to -27,859.00, down 1918.0 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of major indices rose, including the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 4135.82, up 8.7 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of most futures contracts changed, with the IF main contract basis decreasing to -13.8, down 2.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased to 17,661.50 billion yuan, down 493.01 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased to 19,474.29 billion yuan, up 54.37 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: Various indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks, option prices, and implied volatilities showed different trends. The proportion of rising stocks increased to 51.37%, up 4.60% [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Overall A - shares**: The strength of all A - shares increased to 5.80, up 1.10, with improvements in both the technical and capital aspects [2]. Industry News - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2]. - **A - share Financing**: As of July 27, 74 A - share companies had completed private placements this year, raising a total of 659 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Stock Index Performance**: The major A - share indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly [2]. Key Events to Watch - **International Economic Data**: Important economic data and central bank decisions in the US and Canada are scheduled to be released from July 29 to August 1, such as the US June JOLTs job openings on July 29 at 22:00 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. The short - term of IH2509 is oscillating, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising [1][5] - The rebound of the stock index is mainly driven by positive policy expectations, and the market sentiment is generally optimistic. The stock index needs a short - term oscillating consolidation period, and in the short term, it is mainly oscillating strongly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, in the short - term (within a week), it is oscillating; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is rising; intraday, it is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index mainly oscillated narrowly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1815.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Some stocks have risen significantly since late June, so some profit - taking funds need to stop profits. The rebound of the stock index is driven by positive policy expectations. The domestic policy has boosted the price and profit repair expectations of related industries, and the official start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has driven the expectation of policy - based support. The current trading volume in the stock market is high, indicating high risk preference of investors [5]

Core Insights - Stock index futures concept stocks play a collaborative role in the market, akin to skilled artisans enhancing the overall experience of investment through their supportive functions [1][2][4] - These concept stocks provide essential services such as technical support and risk management, which are crucial for the smooth operation of stock index futures [1][2] - The interaction between stock index futures and these concept stocks fosters a synergistic relationship that enhances market stability and promotes growth across various industries [4] Group 1 - Stock index futures concept stocks are compared to sous chefs in a restaurant, providing necessary support to the main dish, which is the stock index futures [1] - These stocks optimize trading systems and risk management, ensuring that the market operates efficiently during fluctuations [1][2] - The collaborative nature of these stocks enriches the investment landscape, making it more robust and diverse [1][4] Group 2 - The role of stock index futures concept stocks is likened to shipwrights who not only repair but also enhance the performance of vessels, ensuring they can navigate market challenges effectively [2] - These stocks do not directly engage in trading but improve the overall functionality of stock index futures, allowing for better market responses [2] - The concept stocks facilitate the connection between stock index futures and real industries, promoting a more integrated market ecosystem [4] Group 3 - Stock index futures concept stocks are essential for the growth of related industries, similar to how pollinators contribute to the productivity of an orchard [4] - They enable the exchange of value between different sectors, enhancing the overall market vitality and leading to collaborative growth [4] - The value of these concept stocks lies in their ability to work in harmony with other market participants, reinforcing the importance of collaboration in achieving economic prosperity [4]

把股指期货比作厨师的调味罐再贴切不过。新手学做菜，总觉得盐糖酱醋难以驾驭，多一分则咸，少一分则淡。 股指期货也是如此，它像厨房的调味剂，能平衡食材的本味 —— 当市场像过咸的菜肴时，它能中和波动的浓烈； 当行情似寡淡的汤羹时，它能增添发展的滋味。厨师需要反复练习才能掌握调味比例，学习股指期货也一样，理 解它与股票的关联就像明白盐与菜的关系，熟悉合约规则如同记住每种调料的特性，慢慢就能调出适合自己的 "投资口味"。 若说厨师靠配比取胜，股指期货更有修船匠般的实用。老船匠修补渔船时，总会提前备好木料和桐油，既防风浪 侵蚀船板，也备着突发破损时能及时修补。股指期货正是市场的 "修船工具"，企业用它来稳固经营的 "船身"，就 像船匠给木板刷上桐油防潮。当原材料价格波动如海浪拍击船舷，当市场风向突变似狂风卷过甲板，股指期货能 像加固的船钉一样，减少冲击带来的损耗。新手学习时，就像学徒观察师傅如何选料、如何下钉，掌握这些基础 技巧，才能让投资的 "小船" 行得更稳。 还有些时候，股指期货像种粮人手里的灌溉渠。庄稼生长既怕旱又怕涝，聪明的农夫会修渠引水，旱时灌溉、涝 时排水。股指期货也是如此，它像连接市场的 "水渠"，能调 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 futures rose by 0.47% at the end of trading on Friday, July 25 [1] - The Dow futures increased by 0.46% [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.35% [1] Group 2 - The Russell 2000 futures climbed by 0.38% [2]

Report Overview - Date: July 25, 2025 [3] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [3] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - Today's stock index showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices falling and small - and medium - cap indices rising slightly. The trading volume of the two markets shrank slightly. Some previously leading sectors adjusted significantly. From futures indicators, the basis of each contract declined, and trading volume and open interest decreased, indicating a cooling market sentiment. The index may undergo a phased adjustment, but the positive trend logic remains unchanged. If there are unexpected policies released after the Politburo meeting next week, it will drive the index up [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 57.369 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM rose on shrinking volume, while other varieties fell on shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law. The draft improves the criteria for identifying predatory pricing, regulates market price order, and addresses "involution - style" competition, as well as the criteria for identifying unfair price behaviors such as price collusion, price gouging, and price discrimination [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.50 | - 0.60 | - 0.03 | 0.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.2446 | 4.7227 | 7.6933 | 15.9413 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 2.1687 | - 0.6615 | - 1.8535 | - 4.5693 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.0176 | 9.744 | 22.5556 | 32.7023 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.1192 | - 0.3451 | - 0.4233 | - 1.129 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.33 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.22 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.93 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 17873.37 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 573.69 | [8]

股指交割是股指期货交易的自然终点，如同一场精心编排的戏剧落下帷幕，为每一份合约画上圆满句号。 它以规范的流程衔接期货与现货市场，让交易从开仓到平仓的全链条完整闭环，彰显市场运行的有序性。 对参与交易的投资者，交割是履约精神的体现。无论是选择提前平仓还是持有至交割，都需遵循规则完成 结算，这种对约定的坚守，培养着市场参与者的契约意识，让交易在诚信氛围中进行。 交割结算价的确定蕴含公平智慧。通常以现货指数为基准，结合多时段价格综合计算，既反映市场真实水 平，又避免短期波动干扰，让结算结果客观公正，保障多方利益平衡，体现规则的科学性。 它像一个时间坐标，规范着交易节奏。固定的交割日期让投资者提前规划持仓，在到期前根据策略调整头 寸，这种时间约束促使交易更具计划性，减少盲目操作，提升整体交易效率。 交割数据为市场分析提供重要素材。通过统计不同交割月份的结算情况、交割量变化，能洞察资金对远期 指数的预期，这些数据成为研究市场情绪与趋势的参考，辅助投资者优化策略。 顺利交割的过程，考验着投资者的细节把控能力。从核对持仓信息到确认结算方式，每一个环节的细致操 作，都能提升对交易规则的熟悉度，让参与者在实践中深化对市场机制的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share index has a clear bottom line, and the trading volume in the two markets has increased, driving the index to fluctuate upwards. The "anti-involution" policy has led to a full recovery of theme stocks. The 1.2 trillion hydropower project in the Yarlung Zangbo River has directly promoted the entire infrastructure industry chain such as water conservancy and building materials to strengthen. The market shows the characteristic of "blue-chip stocks setting the stage, and theme stocks performing". Futures index should be intervened after a pullback [3]. - Although the international situation is complex, the current market expectations are sufficient, and the disturbances caused by Sino-US and Iran-Israel issues are limited. The US has lifted the restrictions on H20 chips. The external influence is mainly the Fed's interest rate decision. A rate cut is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB, the return of foreign capital, and the inflow of new incremental funds, which may start as early as September. Currently, policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, the bottom line of the stock index is clear, and new technologies and new consumption are promoting the economic expectation to stabilize and recover. After the risk-free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium and long-term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. A breakthrough must be accompanied by an increase in trading volume. This week, the trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.5 trillion (MA5), and the index still has upward momentum [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to strengthen. As of July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73, up 2.02% for the week and 7.58% year-to-date; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11193.06, up 2.56% for the week and 7.47% year-to-date; the ChiNext Index closed at 2345.37, up 3.00% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index closed at 1032.84, up 2.51% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.44, up 1.73% for the week and 4.76% year-to-date; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4149.04, up 2.23% for the week and 5.44% year-to-date; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6293.60, up 3.18% for the week and 9.92% year-to-date; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6701.12, up 2.27% for the week and 12.48% year-to-date [13]. - Among the global indices, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.78%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.00%, and the Biotechnology Index rose 3.68%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 first-level Shenwan industry indices rose this week. Sectors such as building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals rose significantly, while a few sectors such as banks and communications fell [16]. Liquidity - In June, the total social financing exceeded expectations, and the growth rate reached a new high, rising to 4.6% (a month-on-month increase of 2.3 pct), the highest growth rate since 2023, indicating a significant improvement in corporate liquidity [14][15]. - The capital interest rate (the 7-day reverse repurchase rate of deposit-taking financial institutions in the interbank market, DR007) remained at a low level. In May, the net MLF injection was 37.5 billion yuan. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond was around 1.65%. In June, the total social financing rebounded strongly, mainly driven by policies, and the endogenous driving force still needs to be consolidated. The new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.9% (a month-on-month increase of 0.2 pct), reaching a new high this year. Government bonds increased by 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year (contributing 58% of the social financing increment), reflecting an accelerated pace of fiscal efforts, with special bonds and special-purpose bonds advancing simultaneously. New RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, and short-term corporate loans became the main driving force. The growth rate of M2 rebounded, and M1 improved significantly. In June, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.3% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4 pct), mainly driven by the low-base effect (deposit diversion caused by manual interest compensation supervision in the same period in 2024) and an increase in corporate deposits [17]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume increased, and the stock index continued to fluctuate strongly. The number of new accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, in May continued to drop to 1.555 million, and in June slightly increased to 1.6464 million. On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3600 points during intraday trading, the second-highest point since October 2024. The trading volume in the two markets (MA5) exceeded 1.5 trillion, and the index showed strong momentum, with prominent structural market conditions [26]. Index Valuation - As of July 24, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.64, with a percentile of 73.34; the latest PE of the entire market was 20.81, with a percentile of 78.73. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > SSE 50. Note: The starting time of the valuation percentile is January 1, 2009 [34]. Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non-bank finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 11.18%, and 8.31% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth-largest weighted industry [43]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banks, non-bank finance, and electronics [43]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance [48]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [48].