Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) has strengthened against the US dollar, closing at 7.1791, marking a rise of 69 points from the previous New York session, indicating a positive trend over the last two trading days [1] Summary by Category - **Currency Performance** - The offshore yuan (CNH) traded at 7.1791 against the US dollar, reflecting a gain of 69 points from the previous close [1] - The currency has shown a strengthening trend for two consecutive trading days [1] - The trading range for the day was between 7.1876 and 7.1742 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The June LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate, which aligns with market expectations following the previous monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the June LPR is attributed to the recent monetary policy changes, where a 10 basis point reduction was implemented in May, leading to a corresponding adjustment in LPR rates [1][2]. - Experts indicate that the current economic conditions do not necessitate further immediate adjustments to the LPR, as the policy rates are expected to remain stable [2][3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts believe that the unchanged LPR reflects the lack of significant changes in the factors influencing LPR pricing, thus meeting market expectations [2]. - The chief economist from China Minsheng Bank noted that the recent financial policies aim to stabilize market expectations, contributing to the current LPR stability [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - While there may be potential for future LPR reductions, market participants are advised to temper their expectations regarding the timing and extent of such adjustments [3]. - The ongoing reduction of deposit rates by major banks is expected to continue, which may impact the LPR if further reductions are pursued [3]. - Experts suggest that the focus should be on reducing overall financing costs rather than solely relying on LPR adjustments, especially in light of external factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The chief researcher of Zhaolian, Dong Ximiao, stated that lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is not an urgent matter, as the marginal effect of interest rate cuts is decreasing with the continuous decline of market interest rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The external factor of the Federal Reserve slowing down its rate cuts may lead to an expanded China-U.S. interest rate differential if the LPR is lowered too quickly, which could increase pressure on the RMB exchange rate [1] - The next step should focus on reducing the overall financing costs in society, indicating that lowering the LPR is not the only method to achieve this [1] Group 2: Financing Cost Reduction Strategies - Future efforts to lower comprehensive financing costs may need to target non-interest costs, such as reducing mortgage guarantee fees and intermediary service fees [1]

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1 / 8 大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，受昨日议息会议影响，贵金属继续小幅回调，伦敦 金当前交投于 3369 美元附近，伦敦银当前交投于 36.4 美元附近。受外盘驱动， 沪金主力合约收跌 0.49%，报 781.24 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 1.91%，报 8819 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数持续反弹，当前交投于 98.9 附近。 3.美债收益率：休市。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位盘整，当前交投于 7.187 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.美联储 6 月议息会议：①连续第四次维持利率不变，②点阵图显示今年降息 两次，但预计今年不降息 ...

智通财经6月19日电，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1882，较上一交易日下降14点。 ...

以旧换新政策在促进商品消费方面已经取得阶段性成果，考虑到耐用品置换周期，后续政策刺激效应或 将逐渐趋缓。要进一步促进国内消费，还需要进一步提振就业与居民收入，以及扭转偏低的通胀预期。 促进服务业就业与消费，特别是教育、健康、育儿等消费升级趋势下居民有意愿增加支出的领域，可能 是进一步促进消费的突破口。 证券时报记者：自去年9月24日以来，中国陆续出台一揽子化债政策与促增长举措，今年政治局会议前 后，又落地特别国债发行、央行降准降息等政策工具。从当前经济运行节奏看，未来还有哪些政策利好 值得关注？ 近日，国家统计局发布的5月经济数据超市场预期，以旧换新政策在促消费方面取得了阶段性成果。对 此，德意志银行等多家国际大行纷纷上调对中国经济增长的预测，并认为经济基本面的改善支持人民币 汇率走强。 为此，证券时报记者专访了德银中国首席经济学家熊奕。他就中国经济增长预期、人民币汇率、促消费 效果、政策发力方向等话题分享了观点。他认为，促进服务业就业和消费，特别是教育、健康、育儿等 消费升级趋势下居民有意愿增加支出的领域，可能是进一步促进消费的突破口。 证券时报记者：近日，国家统计局发布了5月经济数据，规模以上工业增加值同 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the Lujiazui Financial Forum was the lack of significant stimulating measures compared to previous events, leading to disappointment among attendees [3][4] - The meeting had high-level attendance from the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau, focusing on two main points: financial market openness and better support for the technology industry [4] - Specific measures discussed included the establishment of an international operational center for digital RMB, offshore trade finance pilots, and the issuance of offshore bonds, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing the role of the RMB in the international financial system [4] Group 2 - The meeting's discussions suggest a potential shift in the RMB's role in the international financial landscape, especially in light of the diminishing dominance of the US dollar [4] - The anticipation of significant outcomes from the meeting did not materialize, which may exert downward pressure on market sentiment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The future of China's foreign exchange market is expected to maintain stable operations, with the RMB exchange rate remaining stable at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China is implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery [1] - There will be an increase in policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment, along with a gradual expansion of financial market openness [1] - The international balance of payments is projected to remain fundamentally balanced [1] Group 2: Market Participants and Resilience - Market participants are becoming more mature and rational, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging increasing [1] - The share of RMB cross-border receipts under goods trade has risen to approximately 30% [1] - The resilience of the foreign exchange market is expected to continue strengthening [1]

在2025陆家嘴论坛上，中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新表示，2025年以来，外汇市场 在复杂严峻形势下运行总体平稳。人民币汇率双向波动、弹性增强，人民币对美元汇率升值1.6%，对 一篮子货币总体稳定。我国外贸保持较强韧性，经常账户顺差处于合理均衡水平。跨境投资更趋活跃， 外资净增持境内债券处于较高水平，近期买入境内股票也有所增多。(金融时报) ...

2025年6月18日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1761，上调（人民币贬值）15点； 欧元/人民币报8.2558，下调374点； 港元/人民币报0.91417，上调1.5点； 英镑/人民币报9.6580，下调843点； 澳元/人民币报4.6594，下调188点； 加元/人民币报5.2568，下调334点； 100日元/人民币报4.9456，下调156点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9301，下调201点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3316，下调165点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59084，下调0.6点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.8043，下调178点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5887，下调166点。 ...