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玉渊谭天丨从釜山会晤看“历史主动”:看长远、驭大局、做更好的自己
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-11-03 10:21
这次会晤给出了当前中美关系保持总体稳定的判断。在元首会晤的战略引领下,中美双方在多个领域达 成加强合作的共识。会晤中双方都同意保持经常性交往,加强在经贸、能源等领域合作,促进人文交 流。 中美关系是世界上最重要的双边关系之一,两个大国寻找正确的相处之道,既要回望历史,也要 着眼现实,更要立足于全球格局。(央视) 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...
美财长对华放话:一旦中国在稀土上“出尔反尔”,美国将随时准备动手!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-03 09:10
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's threats regarding China's rare earth exports highlight the ongoing economic tensions between the U.S. and China, emphasizing the latter's dominance in the rare earth market and the U.S.'s dependency on these resources [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements are crucial for modern technology, including smartphones, electric vehicles, and military equipment, with China holding a dominant position in global supply [1]. - The U.S. aims to establish an independent rare earth supply chain but remains heavily reliant on Chinese resources [1]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. is facing significant economic challenges, including inflation, sluggish manufacturing recovery, and high dependency on global supply chains [5]. - The strategy of "decoupling" from China is seen as a way to mask the U.S.'s economic difficulties, but abandoning cooperation with China could exacerbate these issues [5]. Group 3: U.S.-China Relations - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations showed a willingness for cooperation, with China agreeing to suspend new rare earth export regulations for a year, but this was undermined by the Treasury Secretary's threats [3]. - Historical patterns indicate that confrontation is not an effective solution, and rational dialogue and compromise are essential for future peace and growth between the two nations [7].
再谈“棋至中盘”——中美釜山元首峰会及四中全会后的经济与金融形势
2025-11-03 02:36
中美高层对话旨在稳定双边关系,避免因美方内部不协调导致政策反复, 显示中国对通过沟通解决问题的意愿。 中国经济展现韧性,GDP 和贸易增速表现出色,表明中国有能力应对外 部压力,并对自身发展充满信心。 中美经贸团队就主要问题达成共识,反映双方认识到贸易战的负面影响, 并开始重新评估对策,寻求务实解决方案。 美国当前对华策略的调整,部分原因是中国的实力增强,以及美国自身 面临的经济压力,如美联储降息与停止量化紧缩并存。 特朗普政府面临财政挑战,联邦利息支出大幅增加,限制了其通过财政 手段解决国内问题的空间,需更激进的货币政策。 美国制造业空心化削弱了其工业基础和军事实力,进而影响美元霸权, 并导致美元信用下降和通货膨胀。 中国已将外部变数纳入考量,积极应对挑战,中美关系未来可能经历波 动,但中国已做好准备应对各种情况,A 股市场长期向好。 Q&A 如何看待最近中美元首在釜山的会晤? 再谈"棋至中盘"——中美釜山元首峰会及四中全会后的 经济与金融形势 20251031 摘要 美国制造业空心化对其经济和军事力量有何影响? 美国制造业空心化带来了两个重要影响。首先,工业实力是军事实力的重要基 础,制造业空心化削弱了美 ...
宏观周报(10月第5周):10月PMI超季节性回落-20251103
Century Securities· 2025-11-03 02:20
Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - October PMI recorded at 49%, indicating a significant seasonal decline and overall below expectations[3] - New export orders decreased due to heightened uncertainties from previous trade conflicts, impacting supply and demand[3] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to stabilize the economy[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The equity market saw a slight increase with a weekly average transaction volume of 23,253 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease in trading volume[3] - The bond market experienced a significant rise, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 5.6 basis points[3] - The central bank's liquidity injection reached a new high of 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards easing monetary policy[3] Group 3: International Context - U.S. stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.71%[3] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, ending balance sheet reduction as of December 1[3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to around 60% following comments from Fed Chair Powell[3]
China Talks Put Markets At Ease, for Now
Barrons· 2025-10-31 17:18
A U.S.-China summit in South Korea did just enough, even if it didn't fix everything that has kept the two sides at odds. ...
中美会晤释放强信号!大豆、豆粕价格要变天?一文看懂核心逻辑|大宗风云
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 15:36
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, reaching a 15-month high, driven by expectations of China purchasing U.S. soybeans [2][3] - On October 30, U.S. soybean futures peaked at $11.14 per bushel, closing at $11.09 on October 31, indicating strong market activity [2] - The recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump is seen as a positive signal for U.S.-China relations, potentially boosting global soybean trade [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that China may agree to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, with expectations of reserve procurement actions in November and December [4][5] - The U.S. soybean production for the current year is projected at 117 million tons, a 1.6% decrease year-on-year, due to reduced planting area [6][7] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by high livestock inventory, with significant increases in feed production observed [6][7] Group 3 - The market is divided on the future of soybean prices, with some expecting a bull market while others predict downward pressure on domestic soybean and meal prices if imports increase [5][8] - The global soybean supply remains ample, with South American production expected to exert pressure on U.S. soybean prices [8][9] - The upcoming months will be critical for determining the price dynamics of soybean and meal futures, particularly in relation to U.S.-China procurement agreements and South American weather conditions [8][9]
港媒关注中美元首会晤:两国关系平稳前行 相互成就惠及世界
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-10-31 13:02
香港《大公报》社评认为,中美元首会晤以及达成的重要成果,再次证明对话比对抗好,中美两国可以 相互成就、共同繁荣。这不仅为中美关系稳定发展作出新指引、注入新动力,也为当前动荡不安的世界 注入确定性、稳定性。 香港《文汇报》社评指出,中美两国国情不同,存在一些分歧和摩擦是正常的,关键在于双方要以大局 为重,以对话化解分歧,以合作取代对抗。作为世界上最重要的双边关系,中美关系的稳定健康可持续 发展,不仅关乎两国民众的根本福祉,也深刻影响着世界的和平、稳定与繁荣。此次会晤向世界表明, 中美双方有智慧、有能力管控分歧,扩大合作,推动两国关系克难前行。 中新社香港10月31日电 中国国家主席习近平10月30日在韩国釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。香港媒 体31日发表评论称,此次会晤为中美关系稳定发展作出新指引、注入新动力;两国关系平稳前行,相互 成就惠及世界。 《星岛日报》社论认为,此次中美元首会晤,成果较为丰硕。这将有利于促进中美经贸关系的稳定,市 场对此亦有正面反应。 全国政协港澳台侨委员会副主任、香港新时代发展智库主席屠海鸣在香港《大公报》发表专栏文章表 示,两国元首会晤将对世界格局产生深远影响。稳下来、向前走,这是 ...
兴业证券王涵 | 再谈“棋至中盘”——中美釜山元首峰会及四中全会后的经济与金融形势
王涵论宏观· 2025-10-31 11:20
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the recent China-US summit, highlighting China's dominant position and the potential softening of the US stance towards China due to internal pressures [2][3][9] - The article discusses four key statements from the summit, including the need for leaders to steer the overall direction of bilateral relations, China's resilience in maintaining economic momentum despite external challenges, the lessons learned from the recent twists in China-US trade relations, and the preference for dialogue over confrontation [2][3][4] Group 2 - Internal pressures are identified as a reason for the potential softening of Trump's stance towards China, particularly the need to address fiscal challenges and the constraints on US monetary and fiscal policy due to manufacturing decline [4][5][6] - The article notes that the US's internal contradictions may lead to fluctuations in its strategic approach towards China, while China's policy-making has already taken into account these external complexities [6][10] Group 3 - The overall upward trend of the A-share market remains intact, supported by three main factors: China's enhanced comprehensive strength, the importance of financial reform, and a more proactive national competition strategy [7][9] - Short-term market volatility and style shifts are expected, with a cautionary note on the potential for increased market fluctuations and the need for investors to be aware of these changes [7][10] - The potential for RMB appreciation is highlighted, particularly in the context of anticipated changes in US monetary policy, which may lead to a weaker dollar and a stronger RMB in the next 6-12 months [8][10]
董军与美国国防部长会谈
证券时报· 2025-10-31 09:24
10月31日上午,正在马来西亚出席第12届东盟防长扩大会的国防部长董军与美国国防部长赫格 塞思举行会谈。 董军说,习近平主席同特朗普总统在韩国成功会晤,就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引,指出中美两国 完全可以相互成就、共同繁荣。两国防务部门要以实际行动落实好元首共识,发挥高层战略沟通的示范带动作 用,强化政策层沟通增信释疑,拓开一线官兵良性互动,鼓励院校、学界、战略界为两军探索正确相处之道提 供助力,构建平等尊重、和平共处、稳定正向的两军关系,为两国关系平稳前行做好同向支撑。 董军强调,台海两岸统一是不可阻挡的历史大势。美方在台湾问题上要谨言慎行,旗帜鲜明反对"台独"。中国 致力于和平发展,同时坚决维护国家安全利益,对侵权挑衅行为有充分实力从容应对。希望美方把不遏制中 国、不寻求发生冲突的表态落实到行动上,与中方一道为地区和世界和平安全注入正能量。 双方还就其他问题交换了意见。 来源:国防部发布 责编:李丹 校对:吕久彪 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小 ...