｜2025年5月21日 星期三｜ NO.1 多家券商扎堆举办消费主题策略会 宠物、零食、保健品、潮玩、美容个护……今年A股新消费板块热点层出不穷。据《每日经济新闻》记 者不完全统计，在最近10天左右的时间内，华福证券、中信建投、国金证券等多家券商举办了消费行业 主题策略会。火爆场面和两年前部分券商策略会消费分论坛惊现"零"观众的场景，形成鲜明反差。有券 商首席向记者反馈称，新消费行情趋热，甚至吸引了一些新能源、科技行业分析师来"蹭热度"。 点评：新消费板块近期备受关注，多家券商举办消费主题策略会，显示出市场对该领域的强烈兴趣。宠 物、零食、保健品等行业的热度上升，吸引了新能源和科技行业分析师的关注。这一趋势可能推动相关 公司股价波动，并带动整个消费板块的活跃度。总体来看，新消费行情的趋热将对股市整体产生积极影 响，投资者需关注相关行业动态。 NO.4 低利率改变打法，私募"弃债投股" 私募最新投资月报显示，目前多家宏观策略私募保持积极的权益资产净多头仓位，港股互联网和红利资 产备受青睐。在业内人士看来，低利率时代下，债券投资的难度显著提升，权益资产的性价比愈发凸 显，尤其伴随着政策持续发力，上市公司回购力度加 ...

每经编辑｜叶峰 降息降准落地，一年期定期存款利率下破1%。低利率背景下，"财富搬家"该往哪里去？ 红利类高股息资产或为较好选择。 1、股息率高，显著高于银行存款 以上证国企红利指数为例，截至5月19日，股息率超6%，显著高于当前银行存款利率。另外，红利资产具备"类固收"属性，定期支付股息，收益相对稳定。 2、红利避险属性突出，市场下行期表现占优 市场震荡调整期，红利风格往往占优。以上证国有企业红利指数为例，在2021/12/10-2024/9/23的市场调整期，二级市场涨幅为20.63%，明显优于同期的沪 深300（-36.74%）、上证指数（-25.16%）的回报水平。 从指数过往表现来看，在"红利"+"中特估"的双重增益加持下，上证国企红利指数的市场表现明显占优。截至一季度末，上证国企红利指数近三年涨幅为 13.63%，同期中证红利指数涨3.12%，上证综指涨2.12%，沪深300下跌8.62%。 | 日期/指数(2 | 上证国企红利e | 中证红利( | 上证综指( | 沪深 300-7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近三年4 | 13.63% | 3.12%< ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2025 年 5 月） 收费公路管理条例预备修订，关税调整下港 推荐（维持） 口交易活跃 交通运输 2025 年 05 月 20 日 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 联系人：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,240.61 | 3.34 | | ...

中证红利指数覆盖A股100只高股息、分红稳定的优质标的，股息率长期稳定在5%以上，显著高于十年 期国债收益率，在低利率环境下配置吸引力凸显；指数调仓后成分股市值结构优化，剔除低股息个股， 进一步抬升整体股息率，险资增持与资金净流入强化其抗跌性，成为中长期资金的核心配置工具。 中证红利质量指数通过"红利+质量"双因子策略，筛选分红稳定且盈利质量高的50只成分股，兼顾高股 息防御属性与ROE稳定性，长期收益显著优于主流宽基指数，在政策倡导分红和盈利质量提升的背景 下，其"避险+成长"的双重特性适配经济周期波动。 恒生港股通高股息低波动指数聚焦港股高股息资产，成分股需连续分红且波动率较低，叠加低估值优势 （股息率超8%），受益于央企市值管理政策，进一步强化分红持续性，在港股低估值与海外流动性扰 动下防御属性突出。 5月20日，两市高歌猛进，红利资产同步走强。截至14时23分，"红利三杰"中证红利ETF(515080)、港股 红利低波ETF(520550)及中证红利质量ETF(159209)分别涨0.46%、0.64%及0.90%。 分析指出，在当前市场波动加剧的背景下，三大红利类指数各具配置优势： 三者分别以质量深 ...

现金流ETF（159399）：聚焦大中市值，月月评估分红 现金流ETF（159399）是以自由现金流作为选股因子的Smart Beta ETF，紧密跟踪富时中国A股自由现金 流聚焦指数，剔除金融和地产行业，优选自由现金流率最高的50只股票，为投资者筛选出了一批A股市 场中的"现金牛"企业，为长期投资收益奠定了坚实基础。 从指数历史走势来看，富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦指数在2014-2024年十余年的时间年化收益约20%， 远超沪深300和中证红利指数同期表现，并且从2019年开始连续6年实现正收益。 消息面上，5月20日，工商银行、中国银行、建设银行、农业银行、邮储银行、交通银行下调人民币存 款利率，一年期定期存款利率下破1%。 除国有六大行外，股份制银行招商银行也在今日下调了人民币存款利率，其中活期利率下调5个基点至 0.05%；定期整存整取三个月期、半年期、一年期、二年期均下调15个基点，分别为0.65%、0.85%、 0.95%、1.05%；定期整存整取三年期和五年期均下调25个基点，分别至1.25%和1.3%。 从宏观环境来看，国内降息降准落地，无风险收益率下行背景下，红利资产高股息率受市场青睐，或存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index shows positive trends, with significant gains in constituent stocks, indicating a favorable investment environment for dividend assets [1][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of May 19, 2025, the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index increased by 0.22%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Ninghu Expressway (+3.28%) and Huaneng Hydropower (+2.06%) [1]. - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) showed resilience in the market, closing in the green despite broader market conditions [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF recorded a turnover of 1.02% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 57.13 million yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF averaged daily transactions of 105 million yuan, indicating strong liquidity [3]. - The latest fund size of the ETF reached 5.566 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.0793 million yuan recently, and a total of 47.8321 million yuan net inflow over the past nine trading days [3]. Group 3: Top Holdings and Market Characteristics - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index accounted for 37.43% of the index, including major companies like China Shenhua and Gree Electric [3]. - Dividend assets are characterized by stable cash flow returns, lower volatility, and long-term compounding effects, making them attractive for long-term investment strategies [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Current market focus is on sectors such as new consumption, dividend defensive stocks, and traditional versus emerging consumption [4]. - The political signals from the recent Politburo meeting are unclear, but there is a preference for high-dividend defensive stocks, particularly in the white goods sector [4]. - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities through corresponding CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF linked funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has become a "safe haven" for funds, particularly in high-dividend sectors such as finance, energy, public utilities, and real estate, attracting significant inflows of risk-averse capital [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market has remained active this year, benefiting from a low interest rate environment [1] - Insurance capital has been increasingly acquiring high-dividend stocks in the Hong Kong market, indicating a shift towards dividend-focused investments [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Industry institutions expect that high-dividend assets in the Hong Kong market will be a key focus for insurance capital in their future equity asset allocations [1] - The ongoing public fund reforms may further increase domestic demand for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors, which are relatively undervalued and supported by policy [1] Group 3: Investment Insights - High-dividend assets are recommended as a foundational investment, with a focus on companies that have stable performance as indicated by their quarterly reports [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has been active this year, with a low interest rate environment attracting risk-averse funds into high dividend sectors such as finance, energy, utilities, and real estate, resulting in over 130 billion HKD net inflow into these sectors from southbound funds in the past three months [1][2] - The total scale of domestic Hong Kong dividend-themed ETFs has rapidly increased from less than 30 billion to over 42 billion HKD, with net inflows of approximately 10 billion HKD [2] - Insurance funds have frequently increased their stakes in high dividend Hong Kong stocks, indicating a strong preference for dividend-yielding assets among long-term investors [3] Group 2 - Insurance funds have made over ten significant purchases of Hong Kong stocks this year, primarily in sectors like banking, utilities, and non-bank financials, with a focus on high dividend characteristics [3] - The preference for Hong Kong stocks by insurance funds is attributed to their attractive discount rates and dividend yields, along with tax benefits for long-term holdings [3] - The demand for dividend assets is expected to remain strong due to the continuous growth in insurance premium income and the pursuit of absolute returns by institutions [3] Group 3 - Southbound funds have also shown significant interest in new consumption and technology sectors, with net purchases of Alibaba exceeding 70 billion HKD and substantial investments in Meituan and Tencent [4] - The top three Hong Kong-themed ETFs have collectively attracted over 40 billion HKD in net inflows this year, indicating a strong market interest [4] - The Hong Kong market is seen as a leader in the current asset revaluation trend in China, with expectations of continued inflows from southbound funds [4] Group 4 - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, balancing high-growth technology and new economy sectors with stable dividend-yielding assets to mitigate external volatility [5] - The focus on sectors benefiting from domestic policy support and economic transformation is emphasized, alongside attention to cyclical sectors related to domestic demand [5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250512-20250518） 聚焦中美关税进展：双边贸易迅速升温，备货潮推 推荐（维持） 高运价，推荐集运板块投资机会 一、聚焦中美关税进展：双边贸易迅速升温，备货潮推高运价，推荐集运板块 投资机会 5 月 12 日，中美发表日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，中美将互相取消此前加征的 91%的反制关税，并暂停实施 24%的对等关税 90 天。 关税政策一经调整，双边贸易迅速升温，美国进口商快速启动原本积压订单的 发货，市场美线货运量激增，据财联社公众号报道：贸易追踪机构 Vizion 公 布的数据显示，在美国和中国互降关税之后，在美国下单的从中国到美国的集 装箱运输预订量飙升近 300%。截至 5 月 5 日的七天平均预订量为 5709 个标 准集装箱，而截至 5 月 14 日的七天平均预订量飙升 277%至 21530 个标准集 装箱。 出货需求大增推高市场运价，根据上海航交所公众号报道，本周北美航线的运 输需求明显复苏，即期订舱价格大幅上涨：5 月 16 日，上海港出口至美西和 美东基本港市场运价（海运及海运附加费）分别为 3091 美元/FEU 和 4069 美 ...

航空量价向好可期，集运迎来多重催化 交通运输 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 南方航空 | 5.97 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.54 | -25.96 | -66.33 | 19.77 | 13.70 | 10.96 | 买入 | | | | 中国东航 | 3.79 | -0.37 | -0.19 | 0 ...