Core Insights - The A-share banking sector has experienced a prolonged period without new listings, with the last IPO being Lanzhou Bank in January 2022, until Dongguan Bank and Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank recently had their IPO status restored to "accepted" [1][3][4] - Dongguan Bank has faced numerous challenges since proposing its IPO in 2008, including multiple application terminations and audit suspensions, while Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank has similarly faced a lengthy process since initiating its IPO in 2018 [4][5] - In contrast, Guangdong Shunde Rural Commercial Bank has withdrawn its IPO application, reducing the number of banks waiting to list in A-shares to five, amidst a challenging environment characterized by narrowing net interest margins and asset quality pressures [1][8] Company Summaries - Dongguan Bank reported a revenue of 10.197 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.738 billion yuan, down 8.1% [5] - Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank achieved a revenue of 6.429 billion yuan, a decline of 6.3%, but its net profit increased by 2.99% to 2.453 billion yuan [5] - Guangdong Shunde Rural Commercial Bank, which has withdrawn its IPO application, was established in 1952 and underwent a transformation into a rural commercial bank in 2009 [6][7] Market Context - The A-share market has not seen new bank listings since Lanzhou Bank, with many banks considering the Hong Kong market as an alternative due to the high barriers and uncertainties in A-shares [9][10] - Yibin Bank successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2025, but its stock performance was lackluster, reflecting the challenges faced by small and medium-sized banks in the Hong Kong market [9][10] - The overall environment for bank IPOs is complicated by regulatory demands for sustainable profitability, leading some banks to withdraw their applications due to poor financial performance [8][10]

港交所披露易信息显示，近期弘康人寿保险股份有限公司（下称"弘康人寿"）连续两个交易日增持郑州银行H股，其中首 次增持后持股比例达到了5.55%，根据香港市场规则，触发举牌。 券商中国记者注意到，过去半年多的时间，以平安系为代表的险资在港股密集举牌中资银行H股，频次高达13次，是自2015 年、2020年之后的第三次举牌潮。 且举牌后，上述险资继续高频增持中资银行H股，尤其对国有大行和头部股份行的单家持股比例上升至15%上下。券商中国记 者粗略统计，上述增持行动合计耗资超1500亿港元。 值得关注的是，郑州银行是近期险资首次关注的区域银行。 弘康人寿增持郑州银行 港交所披露易信息显示，6月27日，弘康人寿以每股1.2068港元增持郑州银行H股1600万股，总金额为1930.88万港元。增持 后，持股比例占据其H股的5.55%，触发举牌。 截至6月27日收盘，郑州银行A股当日收盘价为每股人民币2.09元，跌幅1.42%；H股当日收盘价为每股1.187港元，涨幅 0.83%。 举牌后，弘康人寿于下一个交易日继续"进货"。6月30日，弘康人寿继续增持郑州银行H股2300万股，每股作价1.1804港元， 总金额为271 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a "pro-cyclical" model to a "weak cyclical" model, indicating a shift in operational dynamics [2][4] - The report emphasizes the stability of bank dividend yields, which are expected to remain attractive even as risk-free interest rates decline [2][4] - The influx of non-freely circulating funds, such as from state-owned enterprises and insurance capital, is expected to provide a stable source of investment in bank stocks [2][4] Summary by Sections From the Perspective of Risk-Free Interest Rates - Bank dividend yields are characterized by strong certainty and sustainability, with interest margins expected to decline more slowly than risk-free rates [5][12] - The correlation between banks and fiscal policies has strengthened, providing a safety net for core assets [12] - If risk-free interest rates decline, the attractiveness of stable bank dividends will increase, especially in a context of economic weak recovery and asset scarcity [8][18] From the Perspective of Funding Allocation to Bank Stocks - Major funding sources for bank stocks include non-freely circulating funds from fiscal authorities, state-owned enterprises, and insurance capital [5][12] - Non-freely circulating market capitalization accounts for approximately 70% of the banking sector, providing a stabilizing effect [5][12] - Insurance capital is projected to significantly increase its allocation to bank stocks, with an estimated annual inflow exceeding 350 billion [5][12] Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend the banking sector, particularly focusing on banks with regional advantages and strong dividend yields [4][12] - Specific recommendations include regional banks in areas like Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as major banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][12]

Core Insights - The reform and risk mitigation process for rural banks in China is accelerating significantly, with a notable reduction in the number of such banks due to mergers and acquisitions [2][3][5] Group 1: Reform Progress - Nearly 90 rural banks have exited the market through absorption and mergers in the first half of 2025, a figure close to the total of 94 for the entire year of 2024, and significantly higher than just 11 in 2023 [3] - The main integration methods are "village to branch" and "village to division," with city commercial banks and rural commercial banks being the primary participants, while state-owned banks are increasingly involved [3][4] - The approval of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to acquire Chongqing Bishan ICBC Rural Bank marks the first instance of a state-owned bank participating in the "village to branch" project [3][4] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The acceleration of rural bank integration is driven by both policy initiatives and internal risk pressures, with the National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizing the need for reform and risk clearance [5][6] - The government aims to reduce the number of institutions while improving quality through market-oriented and legal principles, focusing on the transformation of local small financial institutions [5][6] Group 3: Risk Management and Service Quality - The restructuring aims to enhance risk management capabilities and operational efficiency by integrating rural banks' non-performing assets into the stronger risk control systems of their parent banks [2][7] - The consolidation of rural banks is expected to improve service quality rather than diminish financial services in rural areas, as it allows for better resource allocation and the introduction of diversified financial products [7][8] - Long-term, these reforms are anticipated to inject new vitality into rural financial services, supporting rural revitalization and economic development [8]

继药都银行、海安银行、马鞍山行、广州银行之后，又一家银行选择撤回IPO申请。近日，广东顺德农 村商业银行股份有限公司（下称"顺德农商行"）及其保荐人中金公司向深交所提交IPO申请，7月4日， 顺德农商行正式终止审核。 随着顺德农商行的退出，原本全面注册制后10家申报IPO的银行队伍已经少了一半，仅剩5家银行尚在 排队中。 在A股市场难以突破的背景下，赴港上市是另一路径选择，不过，对于中小银行来说，A股上市难，主 要难在上市前，而H股的难恰恰在于上市之后。 "近年来，银行IPO进展缓慢，一方面与资本市场政策调整有关，在建设科技强国的背景下，上市资源 更多用于支持科技型企业融资；另一方面与近两年A股市场震荡有关，银行股体量较大，需考虑上市对 资本市场稳定性的影响。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼对记者表示。 储备库从10家降至5家 对于中小银行来说，A股上市难，主要难在上市前，而H股的难恰恰在于上市之后。 2023年初，全面注册制启动，10家拟上市银行平移至交易所，分别为申报深市主板的广州银行、东莞银 行、马鞍山行、南海农商行、顺德农商行；申报沪市主板的海安银行、药都银行、湖州银行、湖北银 行、 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 价值重估的下半场 ——银行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 银行股目前仍处于价值重估的趋势中。我们认为行情实质性反映的是对于基本面稳定性的预期 偏差。近年来银行的盈利韧性持续超预期，主要源于监管政策托底，城投/地产/资本等重大风险 底线确立。本质在于我国银行作为准财政货币工具，具备显著的系统重要性，股息分红构成重 要财政收入。基本面稳定是红利价值重估、机构持续加仓的核心基础，2025 年净息差正在筑 底，资产质量稳定，区域银行业绩增速领先。当前继续重点推荐优质城商行和高股息红利银行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 马祥云 盛悦菲 盈利何以维持稳定？净息差正在筑底+政策托底资产质量 我们预计 2025 年起金融让利将 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 如何展望银行中报业绩？ ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 26 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周长江银行指数累计上涨 3.8%，相较沪深 300 指数超额收益 2.2%，相较创业板指数超额收 益 2.3%。7 月以来银行指数重新加速上涨创新高，反映 6 月末的短暂调整主要是机构调仓等交 易因素，银行股基本面及核心投资逻辑稳固。个股层面，本周板块行情明显向低 PB 估值的股 份行轮动，浙商银行、民生银行、浦发银行等领涨。其中民生银行 H 股受益于股东立业集团增 持。国有大行 H 股和招商银行 H 股本周调整，招商银行预计受到 7 月 3 日 H 股分红除净因素 影响。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何展望银行中报业绩？ 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 26 周 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 破局 1xPB 与 4%股息率？ ——银行股配置重构系列五 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 市场近期关注银行股估值上限，我们认为投资逻辑的演绎比目标估值更重要，1xPB 和 4%股息 率不构成估值约束。以国有大行为代表的类债型银行股，股价进一步上涨需要股息率与国债收 益率利差继续压降，前提条件是进一步验证基本面盈利稳定性，考虑目前监管维护城投/地产/资 本等重大风险底线、净息差降幅明显收窄，确认盈利稳定后股息率存在进一步降低空间。以头 部城商行为代表的高 ROE、稳定增速银行，股息率不是核心定价因子，与 A 股其他几类行业 对比，目前 15%左右 ROE 的头部城商行 PB 估值提升空间依然非常显著。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title 破局 1xPB 与2] 4%股息率？ ——银行股配置重构系列五 [Table_Summary2] 逻辑演 ...

截至 7 月 4 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.27 年、3.27 年，均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水 平，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.28 年、3.73 年、3.27 年， 其中银行永续债处于较低历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分 别为 1.52 年、1.69 年、3.33 年、1.37 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，租赁公司债位于较高历 史分位。 商业银行债：一般商金债久期拉长至 3.27 年，处于 99.50%的历史分位，高于去年同期水平。二级资本债久期拉长至 4.28 年，处于 97.30%的历史分位，高于去年同期水平；银行永续债久期拉长至 3.73 年，处于的 68.10%历史分位数， 高于去年同期水平。 其余金融债：从加权平均成交期限来看，保险公司债＞证券次级债＞证券公司债＞租赁公司债，分别处于 83%、14%、 30%、71%的历史分位数，保险公司债久期较上周有小幅拉长。 模型适用性风险；模型估算误差 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 城投债：城投债加权 ...

Core Viewpoint - The opening of three new branches by Changshu Rural Commercial Bank marks a significant step in enhancing its presence in Jiangsu province and improving its financial service network [1][2] Group 1: Branch Openings - Changshu Rural Commercial Bank has opened three branches in Nanjing Jiangning, Yangzhou Baoying, and Suqian Sucheng, which were previously village banks acquired or initiated by the bank [1] - The establishment of these branches fills business gaps in key areas such as provincial capitals and enhances the bank's physical service network [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - Entering the Nanjing market allows the bank to directly access provincial resources, optimize resource allocation, and improve efficiency in sensing market trends and regulatory dynamics [1] - The new branches will help the bank deepen its market presence and reduce operational costs associated with independent legal entities, promoting efficient management [1] Group 3: Advantages of the "Village to Branch" Model - The "village to branch" model offers significant advantages over new branch establishments, leveraging existing customer bases and operational experience of the acquired village banks [2] - Changshu Rural Commercial Bank's mature management system and strong risk control capabilities will effectively mitigate risks associated with initial expansion into new areas [2] - The bank's expertise in microfinance and inclusive services will enhance the operational stability and profitability of the new branches, ensuring sustainable development in these regions [2]