【导读】澳洲联储将关键利率维持在 3.85% 不变，市场预期降息 25 基点 中国基金报记者 晨曦 意料之外，澳洲联储（ RBA ）最新宣布：不降息！ 7 月 8 日，澳洲联储货币政策委员会发布声明称，决定将现金利率目标维持在 3.85% 。该 次政策决定以多数票通过： 6 票赞成， 3 票反对。 今年 5 月，澳洲联储已经开启新一轮宽松周期，宣布降息 25 个基点。根据当月会议纪要， 决策层曾考虑一次性下调 50 个基点的可能性，反映出当时对全球不确定性与国内疲弱增长的 高度警惕。 近期，市场普遍认为 RBA 将再次下调现金利率 25 个基点，从 3.85% 降至 3.6% ，以应对 通胀减弱与内需疲软的局面。据海外调查显示， 37 位经济学家中有 31 位预测央行将降息 25 个基点。因此，此次澳洲联储选择维持现金利率在 3.85% ，出乎市场意料。 亦有分析师认为，连续降息之后， RBA 可能采取 " 观察 - 应对 " 的策略，以评估通胀与经 济反应的稳定性； RBA 不太可能在外部环境依然复杂、经济信号尚未明朗的情况下一次性释 放过多政策资源。若核心通胀企稳，消费活动改善， RBA 可能暂停宽松步伐 ...

Core Viewpoint - Westpac Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely keep the official cash rate unchanged in the July meeting, adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its dovish stance from the May monetary policy statement but will not provide strong guidance on the timing of any further rate cuts [1] - The bank predicts that the market will have the discretion to determine whether the Reserve Bank will implement a rate cut to 3% in August, delay it until later this year, or completely abandon the idea of a rate cut [1] - **Economic Indicators** - The Reserve Bank may indicate that economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 is stronger than expected, but subsequent indicators suggest a slowdown in economic momentum, aligning with the forecasts made in May [1] - There may be an emphasis on short-term inflation remaining at concerningly high levels [1]

澳洲联储主席布洛克：对未来进一步降息充满信心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing mixed trends, with gold prices showing volatility and silver prices slightly increasing amid ongoing tariff disturbances, which are gradually weakening compared to previous levels [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - President Trump announced new tariffs on several countries, including Japan and South Korea, effective August 1, with tariffs on imports from these countries set at 25% [2]. - Tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand will range from 25% to 40%, with an additional 10% for countries aligning with anti-American policies of BRICS nations [2]. - The U.S. dollar index rose significantly, reaching a high of 97.65 during the day, closing at 97.51, influenced by the tariff announcements [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Spot gold initially fell below the $3300 mark but rebounded strongly, closing at $3336.35 per ounce, marking a slight increase of 0.04% [2]. - Spot silver closed at $36.74 per ounce, down 0.48% for the day [2]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a bullish trend with support levels at $3305, $3296, and $3279, while resistance levels are at $3330, $3345, and $3365 [3]. - Silver is also showing a bullish trend with support at $36.3 and $36.1, and resistance at $36.7 and $36.9 [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Market participants are awaiting the release of the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June, which may influence precious metals [1].

近期利多利空分析 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20630，基差210，升水期货，偏多。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增342吨至94632吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空件；偏空。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 ...

4. 路透调查：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，37位经济学家中有31位支持降息，另有6位认为利率将维持不 变。 金十整理：机构前瞻澳洲联储利率决议——降息救经济刻不容缓，7月行动成市场共识 1. 西太银行：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，但并非板上钉钉。仍预计最终利率为2.85%。 2. 高盛集团：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，并将在8月和11月继续降息，终端利率料为3.1%。 3. 道富环球：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，目的是保障经济增长，目前通胀显然已经不在担心范围内。 7. 荷兰国际：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，预计年底利率将达3.1%。澳大利亚整体与核心通胀未来几个季 度有望维持在2-3%区间中值附近。 8. Pepperstone：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，由于二季度CPI数据尚未出炉，澳洲联储不会在声明中提供清 晰的关于多久达到中性利率的前瞻指引。 5. 凯投宏观：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，最近数据仍表明，澳大利亚经济倾向于下行，提前降息的理由 仍充分。 6. 瑞银集团：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，原因是经济活动的疲软以及通胀的缓和，8月也将继续降息以捍 卫经济。 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down nearly 1%, Nasdaq down 0.92%, and S&P 500 down about 0.8%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Company Performance - Japanese and Korean companies listed in the U.S. faced significant stock price drops, with Nissan down over 7%, Toyota down nearly 4%, SK Telecom down over 7%, and LG Display down more than 8%. This decline is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with Japan and Korea facing a 25% tariff [3] - Tesla's stock fell 6.79%, influenced by Elon Musk's political activities, which raised investor concerns about his focus shifting away from technology and market growth [3] - In contrast, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.59%, with Bilibili up over 7% and Baidu nearly 4%, while Xpeng Motors fell nearly 5% and Alibaba down over 2%, indicating a selective investment approach within Chinese stocks [3] Currency and Commodity Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 97.48, as investors sought safety in the dollar amid stock market declines, strengthening against major currencies like the euro and pound [4] - Goldman Sachs suggested that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates as early as September, which could positively impact technology and growth stocks [4] - Oil prices increased despite OPEC+ announcing production increases, with Brent crude rising 1.87% and West Texas Intermediate crude up 1.39%, indicating a tighter supply in the physical market [4] - Gold prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, reflecting investor behavior in response to geopolitical and policy uncertainties [4] Key Factors Influencing the Market - The market volatility is largely driven by "policy" and "expectations," with ongoing concerns about tariff policies, Elon Musk's actions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction being critical factors to monitor for their potential impact on company fundamentals and industry trends [5]

张尧浠：降息再呼央行连增、黄金调整洗盘预来年牛市再起 上交易日周一(7月7日)：国际黄金触底回升T型收涨，未能稳健跌破60日均线支撑，这使得后市仍有再度走强冲击3400美元关口的预期，但短期阻力需关 注3360美元，突破持稳至此上方，才能进一步看涨，否则仍将维持震荡调整。 影响上，先是受到关税特朗普向14国发出关税信函，并延长关税暂缓期，打压金价先行走低录得日内低点，之后受到支持买盘，以及美联储主席热门人选 公开呼吁降息，加上中国央行连续第8个月增持黄金，市场又现阶段性抄底买盘，支撑金价持续反弹最终T型收阳。 展望今日周二(7月8日)：国际黄金开盘再度短暂走强后回撤运行，仍处于日图中轨线阻力下方，使得金价仍有震荡调整或走低的风险，另外，本周美元指 数开盘表现走强，也对金价多头造成限制。 不过，美元指数日图走势仍处于回落趋势压力中，周图也受到5-10周均线阻力，月图也依然维持在看空前景当中，整体未有明显的转强倾向，而在前景 上，仍支撑金价有再度看涨攀升的预期。 日内将可关注美国6月NFIB小型企业信心指数、美国6月纽约联储1年通胀预期，市场预期偏向利好金价，故此关注日内回落力度，仍可寻支撑看涨反弹， 走势可参考 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. labor market, economic policies under the Trump administration, and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" on the economy. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Risks**: The decline in labor participation rates, particularly among youth and older populations, indicates potential risks in the labor market despite a decrease in unemployment rates. The unemployment rate may rise in the future, with projections suggesting it could reach 4.4%-4.5% by the end of the year, exceeding the natural unemployment rate level [1][6][10]. - **Non-Farm Payroll Adjustments**: Significant downward revisions are expected for the non-farm employment data for Q1 2025, with monthly adjustments potentially reaching 70,000 to 80,000 jobs. This aligns with a slowdown in private non-farm income due to reduced working hours and declining wages [3][4]. - **Impact of Government Policies**: The Trump administration's immigration restrictions have temporarily lowered unemployment rates but may hinder long-term demand and GDP growth. The tax cuts have stimulated short-term demand, but the overall impact on employment growth remains uncertain [9][11]. - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions**: There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of two cuts within the year, influenced by the current labor market conditions and fiscal policies [10][20]. - **Economic Implications of the "Great Beautiful Act"**: The act, signed on Independence Day, is expected to have short-term economic effects, but its long-term impact requires further analysis, particularly on various sectors such as services and manufacturing [7][8]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Debt and Deficit Projections**: The new fiscal legislation is projected to expand the deficit to approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, with a potential debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 130% by 2033, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11][13][15]. - **Sector Performance in A-Share Market**: The A-share market shows strong sentiment, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials, insurance, and consumer goods, which are expected to perform well due to supportive earnings and favorable valuations [21][22]. - **Macroeconomic Policy Directions in China**: Future macroeconomic policies in China will focus on stabilizing the real estate market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation, which are crucial for overall economic stability [23][24]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Long-term investment potential is identified in sectors such as energy, basic chemicals, and consumer electronics, with a focus on areas that exhibit strong earnings support and favorable valuations [24][25][26].

以色列央行行长：预计明年将降息三次，将利率降至3.75%。 ...