Group 1 - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell multiple times, indicating dissatisfaction with his performance and suggesting the possibility of dismissal [1][3] - Trump's economic advisor Hassett claimed that the President has the authority to fire Powell, citing mismanagement of a renovation project that saw costs rise from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [1] - Powell defended the renovation as necessary for safety and emphasized the constitutional protection of the Federal Reserve's independence [1] Group 2 - Trump has not planned to fire Powell but retains the option, criticizing Powell for not lowering interest rates [3] - Current economic data does not support a rate cut, and Trump's tariffs are causing price increases in consumer goods, which could lead to inflation exceeding 5% by 2026 [3] - The Federal Reserve prioritizes stabilizing the U.S. economy and the dollar over political pressures, as yielding to such pressures could undermine its credibility [5] Group 3 - Powell's resistance to political pressure is seen as a defense of professional rationality against short-sighted political demands [8] - Trump's motivation for requesting rate cuts is to reduce interest payments on the national debt of $36 trillion, which could create a false economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [8] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for global economic stability, and any political interference could lead to significant financial repercussions [8]

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普对鲍威尔持续施加的压力再次搅动市场，引发各界对这位四面楚歌 的美联储主席若遭解职后局势的猜测。 此举在美国史上尚无先例，几乎注定会引发一场牵动华盛顿与华尔街的标志性诉讼，并最终由美国最高 法院裁决。 7月16日的最新动荡源于媒体报道称特朗普拟对鲍威尔采取行动。这位美联储主席因无视特朗普的降息 呼吁长期遭其针对。特朗普随即否认报道，称鲍威尔被撤职"可能性极低，除非他因'欺诈'必须离 职"——此处指向美联储总部装修超支问题。特朗普及其盟友正聚焦此事，试图以此作为"正当理由"解 雇鲍威尔。根据《联邦储备法》第10条规定，美联储理事会成员(含主席)可因"正当理由"被免职。 装修超支是否构成免职理由将成为司法新命题。 如果特朗普解雇鲍威尔，后续可能如何发展? 案件关键争议点是什么? 案件核心将取决于特朗普的指控理由。如果特朗普以"正当理由"指控鲍威尔管理翻修工程不善，案件可 能聚焦于项目细节及超支决策责任人。 法律界对"正当理由"的界定通常包含三种情形：效率低下、玩忽职守、职务不当行为。但一个多世纪前 国会提出的这些术语至今无明确定义。法官需根据双方论证，判定鲍威尔在工程超支中的角色是 ...

金十整理：鲍威尔走人是万能解药？机构齐声怒怼特朗普，"动了鲍威尔美元就完了！" 2. 盛宝银行：如果新任美联储主席与特朗普串通一气，不顾通胀压力执意压低短期利率，长期而言对美 元是有害的。 或严重打击美元 3. 德意志银行：若鲍威尔被撤换，贸易加权美元将在24小时内暴跌3%-4%，固定收益市场将出现30-40 个基点的抛售。 1. 意大利地区性银行Cassa Lombarda：若特朗普真的解雇鲍威尔，必将动摇美元作为全球储备货币的可 靠性。 4. Monex集团：若特朗普或其政府试图以任何形式损害美联储的独立性和权威性，对美元来说绝对是极 其负面的事情。 5. "债王"格罗斯：关键不在于撤换鲍威尔的时机，而在于继任者人选。若新主席能逐步影响FOMC决 策，美元会走弱。 6. 荷兰国际银行：如果特朗普再提解雇鲍威尔，美元将遭遇更大规模的抛售。美联储的独立性是美元作 为第一大储备货币地位的基础。 7. 三菱日联：若特朗普解雇鲍威尔，将严重打击投资者对美元的信心。即便日后其解雇鲍威尔的决定被 法院驳回，美元信心受损的影响也是持久的。 其他观点 1. 摩根大通：美联储的持续独立性绝对关键，干预美联储决策往往会产生不利 ...

7月17日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，老庙、老凤祥、周生生这3家金店金价继续波动中。其中，周生 生黄金上涨6元/克，报价1009元/克，为今日最高价金店。今日的最低价金店还是报价969元/克的上海中国黄金。今日最高与 最低金店间价差扩大至40元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年7月17日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1002 | 元/克 | 3 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | म | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 47 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 988 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1005 | 元/克 | 1 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | দ | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1009 | 元/克 | 6 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing fluctuations and closing down 72 points or 0.29% [2][3] - The report indicates a decrease in net inflow from the Northbound trading, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion HKD, down 58.1% from the previous day [2] - The report discusses the performance of various sectors, noting that 7 out of 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, while 8 fell, with the healthcare, telecommunications, essential consumer goods, and conglomerates showing slight increases [3] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Li Ning (2331.HK), noting that the running and fitness categories are leading growth, while retail channels remain under pressure due to weak consumer spending [5][6] - For Q2, the company reported low single-digit growth in overall platform revenue, with offline channels experiencing a decline, while e-commerce channels showed mid-single-digit growth [5] - The report mentions a decrease in the number of stores, with a total of 6,099 stores as of June 30, reflecting a net decrease of 18 stores since the beginning of the year [6] - The report highlights the signing of a new basketball ambassador, which is expected to boost the basketball category's growth [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Li Ning's strategy of "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" will continue to evolve, with a target price of 19.2 HKD based on a 20x PE for 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding former President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have reignited concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, impacting investor confidence amid current economic conditions [1][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is considered a cornerstone for the stability of global capital markets, despite Powell's decisions facing scrutiny during multiple interest rate hikes and monetary tightening cycles [1] - Some senior Republican senators have publicly expressed support for Powell, aiming to uphold the tradition of central bank independence and prevent it from becoming an administrative tool [1] - Concerns were raised by Senator Thom Tillis about the implications of the Federal Reserve operating under presidential control, which could undermine its credibility and long-term economic outlook [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell stems from the latter's reluctance to implement rapid interest rate cuts during the election period, although interest rate decisions are made collectively by the Federal Open Market Committee [1] - The collective decision-making process enhances policy robustness, indicating that even a change in chairmanship would not fundamentally alter the policy trajectory in the short term [1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Recommendations - The primary risk highlighted is the potential erosion of market confidence in the stability of the Federal Reserve's institutional framework, which could lead to volatility in the dollar, bond markets, and global liquidity [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the political dynamics surrounding monetary policy while being cautious of short-term impacts on risk assets due to political rhetoric [4] - For long-term investors, focusing on the Federal Reserve's decisions driven by economic data rather than political statements is deemed a more rational investment strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant volatility due to President Trump's comments about potentially firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which led to a sharp increase in gold prices before a partial retracement [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially dropped to a low of $3319 before surging to $3376, ultimately closing at $3346, indicating a day of high volatility [1] - Trump's ambiguous statements regarding Powell's position have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, providing support for gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Israel's airstrikes on Damascus have heightened regional instability, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The Trump administration's announcement of potential tariffs on over 150 countries, with rates possibly set at 10% or 15%, has escalated global trade tensions, further supporting gold prices [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is expected to maintain a volatile trading range between $3330 and $3380, with key resistance levels at $3350-55 and $3370-80 [2] - A cautious approach is recommended, with traders advised to wait for market sentiment to stabilize before making significant moves [2] Group 4: Trading Recommendations - A suggested trading strategy includes buying gold at $3337-3336 with a stop loss at $3329 and a target of $3370-3380, while also considering short positions if prices drop below $3330 [3] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, all scheduled for release on July 17 [4]

新华财经北京7月17日电 16日北美交易时段盘中，有关特朗普将解雇鲍威尔的传闻引发市场震荡，美元 指数较高点一度跌超1.2%，避险货币日元和瑞郎从日内低点涨逾1.4%，标普500指数一度急跌约0.6%， 美债收益率短线拉升。 据彭博报道，两位知情人士透露，特朗普在闭门会议上曾展示过一份据称可以授权撤换鲍威尔的文件， 但他周三否认起草或展示过此类文件。 不过这次风波在一个小时内就出现反转，美元指数、标普500指数小幅收涨，10年期国债收益率收报 4.463%。 虚惊一场？ 据悉，一位白宫官员称，美国总统特朗普可能很快解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，特朗普周二晚上已经与国会 共和党人讨论了这一可能的举动。会后，佛罗里达州共和党联邦众议员Anna Paulina Luna在社交媒体上 写道，"鲍威尔即将被解雇，并且解雇很快就会发生。" 特朗普表示，他不打算解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管对其发起新一轮批评，且拒绝完全排除将其罢免的 可能性。特朗普还称，白宫经济顾问哈塞特是其考虑担任美联储职位的人选。此前一天，特朗普也称财 政部长贝森特是人选之一。 富国银行宏观策略师Erik Nelson认为，这种剧烈反应可能让特朗普政府意识到，撤 ...

值得一提的是，佛罗里达州共和党众议员露娜（Anna Paulina Luna）在社交媒体上也写道："从很 可靠的信源得知，鲍威尔可能要被解雇。"，"我99%确定近在眼前。" 2025.07. 17 本文字数：2140，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 美股周三盘中大幅跳水，消息称美国总统特朗普正在考虑解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，外界担忧美联储独 立性因此将受到挑战。随后特朗普向外界予以澄清，称相关报道不实，他大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，" 除非证明存在欺诈行为"。他还透露，白宫经济顾问哈塞特是其考虑担任美联储职位的人选。 据媒体援引知情人士的话称，特朗普周二与一些众议院共和党人沟通是否应该解雇美联储主席鲍威 尔，他甚至起草了一封解雇鲍威尔的信，并在加密货币会议上向议员们展示了这封信。 特朗普认 为，鲍威尔对两座美联储大楼的大规模翻修项目的处理可能是前所未有、在法律上可解雇他的理由。 受此影响，美国三大股指一度大幅跳水，回吐盘中涨幅，中长期美债收益率下行。联邦基金利率期货 定价显示，9月降息概率曾逼近70%。 在此之前，美联储决定对其位于华盛顿的总部Marriner S.Eccles大楼进行升级，因为其电气、 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is attempting to challenge Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by accusing him of mismanagement regarding the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve building, which has reportedly exceeded by approximately $700 million, likening it to the extravagance of the Palace of Versailles [1][3]. Group 1: Renovation Controversy - The White House budget director, Russell Vought, has claimed that the renovation project includes luxurious features such as a rooftop garden, VIP kitchen, and high-quality marble, which has led to accusations of severe mismanagement [1]. - In response, the Federal Reserve clarified that there is no new VIP restaurant, the "garden terrace" is merely a lawn, and the "new water feature" has been canceled, attributing cost increases to structural adjustments, rising material and labor costs, and unforeseen issues like asbestos [3]. Group 2: Powell's Position and Potential Resignation - Following the renovation controversy, reports suggest that Powell may be considering resignation due to the pressure from the Trump administration regarding the renovation project [3][4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has indicated that the process for selecting Powell's successor has already begun, suggesting a potential shift in leadership at the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - Deutsche Bank's global forex strategy head, George Saravelos, warned that if Trump successfully forces Powell out, it would represent a significant but underestimated financial risk, potentially leading to a massive withdrawal of global funds and a severe blow to the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - Saravelos predicts that such an event could result in a 3%-4% drop in the trade-weighted dollar index within 24 hours and a spike in U.S. Treasury yields by 30-40 basis points, creating sustained pressure on the dollar and bonds [5]. - ING's strategy team echoed similar concerns, stating that while the likelihood of Powell's early departure is low, if it occurs, it could steepen the Treasury yield curve and create a "toxic combination" for the dollar, benefiting currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc [5]. Group 4: Summary of the Situation - Trump is leveraging the renovation budget issue to undermine Powell's authority and pave the way for his own nominee, while Powell has invited oversight to address the allegations [6]. - Although the market has not reacted significantly yet, institutions like Deutsche Bank and ING warn that escalation could lead to severe volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets, triggering a chain reaction in the global financial system [6].