Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the low-radiation glass sector leading the gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3456.15 points, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10431.03 points, up 0.18%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2130.74 points, up 0.33% [1] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Premier Li Qiang will attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro from July 5 to 8 and will visit Egypt from July 9 to 10 [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability as a primary regulatory task, aiming to create a better environment for high-quality capital market development [2] - A new policy in Guangzhou will initiate "commercial to public loans" when the personal housing loan rate is below 75%, with measures to control risks as the loan rate approaches 90% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, completing the annual allocation of 800 billion yuan [2] Industry Developments - The Shanghai superconducting material and headquarters base project, with an investment of 2.5 billion yuan, has officially commenced construction, marking the largest project in the superconducting field globally [3] - Luxshare Precision announced plans to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Hainan Highway announced plans to acquire a 51% stake in Jiaokong Petrochemical, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [6] - Tianqi Materials has filed a lawsuit against Yongtai Technology for commercial secret infringement, with expected economic losses of 887 million yuan [7] Company Performance - Zongshen Power expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 70% to 100% for the first half of the year; Jihong Co. anticipates a 55% to 65% increase; and Menohua expects a 143% to 175% rise in net profit for the same period [7] International Market Insights - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% and the Nasdaq up 0.94%, both reaching new closing highs, while the Dow Jones dipped slightly by 0.02% [7] - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, contrary to expectations of an increase of 98,000 jobs [8] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 3.1% to $67.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 3% to $69.11 per barrel [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to tariffs leading to increased inflation, the US dollar is expected to rise in the coming months, contrary to its recent downward trend [1][6] - Chris Turner from ING predicts that the dollar may temporarily escape its decline starting in August, as trade tariffs will accelerate consumer price growth, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][6] - The euro is expected to briefly retreat to the range of 1.13 to 1.15 against the dollar, while the dollar to yen exchange rate is projected to return to the range of 145 to 150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [1][6] Group 2 - The market anticipates at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut expected in September [6] - Turner forecasts that the US inflation rate will rise from 2.4% in May to approximately 4% by August or September, with a median forecast of 3.1% for the third quarter and 3.3% for the last three months of the year [6] - The dollar index has fallen over 9% since 2025, reflecting increased bearish bets on the dollar's future performance [6] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a key factor influencing the dollar's outlook, with a low unemployment rate suggesting a peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar [7] - If the labor market begins to deteriorate, market sentiment may shift towards a more negative outlook for the dollar [7]

日本央行审议委员高田创：随着降息可能性的减弱，美联储的货币政策操作在今夏仍值得关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to rise further, with potential targets set at $3420 and $3460, driven by recent economic data and market sentiment [1][3]. Market Performance - On July 2, gold opened at $3338.68 per ounce, fluctuated within a $15 range, and closed at $3356.87, marking a daily increase of $18.19 or 0.54% [1]. - The daily trading range was $32.34, with a low of $3327.46 and a high of $3359.80 [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment figures for June showed a significant drop, leading to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which positively influenced gold prices [3][5]. - The market anticipates a rise in unemployment rates and a decrease in employment numbers, which are expected to support gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish outlook unless this support is broken [8]. - If gold closes above $3450 this month, it could enhance the bullish sentiment further [8]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3345 and $3336, while resistance levels are at $3365 and $3390 [10]. Future Outlook - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming year, which could further support gold prices [5][6]. - The geopolitical situation and tariff policies are currently seen as less impactful on gold prices, although concerns remain regarding trade agreements [5].

Group 1: Trade Agreement - The United States has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods exported from Vietnam to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods [4] - The agreement allows the U.S. to fully access the Vietnamese market with zero tariffs on U.S. exports [4] Group 2: Stock Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.9%, driven by technology stocks, while the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.02% [2] - Centene, a health insurance company, saw a significant drop of 40%, marking its largest decline in history, after it withdrew its 2025 earnings forecast due to lower-than-expected revenues in several states [2][4] Group 3: Employment Data - The ADP National Employment Report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector for June, significantly below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [3] - Employers announced 47,999 layoffs in June, approximately half of May's figures, attributed to broad economic pressures and some related to tariffs [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, while the 2-year yield increased to 3.80%, reflecting market reactions to employment data and trade agreements [3] - The focus is shifting to the upcoming government non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth to 110,000 and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [3]

6. 乘联分会：预估6月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量126万辆，同比增长29%。 7. 证监会：持续优化股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。 国际新闻： 1. 关税-①特朗普：与越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将对美国全面开放；越南将向美国支付20%的关 金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（7月3日） 国内新闻： 1. 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩会见王毅。王毅说，即将举行的中欧领导人会晤是关键节点举行的一次重要 会晤。 2. 8月1日起，现金买黄金超10万元将需上报。 3. 今年上半年A股新开户1260万户，同比增长32.77%。 4. 香港特区政府公布"粤车南下"初步实施阶段，每日配额100辆车。 5. 广州"商转公贷款"政策征求意见：个贷率低于75%时启动商转公贷款。 7. 美国6月ADP就业人数录得-3.3万人，预期9.5万人，前值3.7万人。美国6月挑战者企业裁员人数录得 4.7999万人，为2024年12月以来新低。 税，且对任何转运货物征收40%的关税。②越南国家媒体：美国将大幅削减多种越南产品的关税。 2. 美联储巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性。 3. 英国央行货币政 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a historic high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 10.52 points, or 0.02%, closing at 44,484.42 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 190.24 points, or 0.94%, closing at 20,393.13 points [1] - Datadog (DDOG.US) will be added to the S&P 500 index, replacing Juniper Networks, leading to a post-market surge of over 9% for Datadog [1] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for June showed a significant decrease of 33,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020 [1] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in global vehicle deliveries for Q2, with total sales of 384,122 units, below analyst expectations of 387,000 units [6] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) announced layoffs of approximately 9,000 employees, affecting less than 4% of its global workforce [7] - Google (GOOG.US) proposed new adjustments to its search results to mitigate potential antitrust fines from the EU [7] Stock Ratings - Jefferies upgraded Apple (AAPL.US) from "Underperform" to "Hold" [8]

在ADP数据公布后，美国联邦基金期货将7月降息的可能性从数据公布前的约20%提高至27.4%。 ...

渣打银行分析师Geoff Kendrick在一份报告中表示，随着比特币ETF和企业财务购买量的增加，比特币 可能在今年下半年达到历史新高。他说，第二季度这些资金流入总额为24.5万美元，第三和第四季度可 能会超过这一水平。如果特朗普提前宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，比特币也会上涨，因为这可能促 使市场更快地定价更多的降息。美国可能通过的稳定币法案也将支持比特币。渣打预计，比特币价格将 在第三季度升至13.5万美元，到年底升至20万美元。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3340 per ounce, with a significant increase of 1.1% on the previous day, closing at $3338.70 per ounce after a rise of $35.99 [1] - The market is anticipating the ADP employment data, which is expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more economic data is needed before initiating monetary easing, but did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, which could enhance gold's appeal as it does not yield interest [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent upward trend in gold prices suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, as the market has seen a significant number of short positions being liquidated [2] - The critical resistance level for gold is identified at $3358, while a support level is noted at $3326, with a potential downward movement towards $3300 if the support is breached [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Current oil prices are stable, with WTI at $65.42 per barrel and Brent at $67.09 per barrel, reflecting a cautious balance among multiple market factors [5] - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+ supply plans and U.S. economic data, which are pivotal in shaping oil price movements [5] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 and potential Fed rate cuts are key variables that could influence future oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with a potential upward test towards $78, although short-term momentum indicators suggest a high-level consolidation phase [6] - The recommended trading strategy for oil includes buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $68.0-$69.0 and support levels at $64.5-$63.5 [6]