多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-02 进行交易，拉升了硅价格，短期已经到了60日均线附近，观察能否顺利突破60日均线，操作上短期可以买 入看跌期权进行保护，同时继续跟随多头，但中长线依旧高空为主。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 壁荒漠地区光伏治沙规划印发，市场情绪开始好转，乐观情绪逐步增加。库存方面，多晶硅库存处于高位 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 状态。硅片企业前期采购的多晶硅尚未完全消化，导致库存积压，对市场价格形成明显压制。今日上涨主 免责声明 要源自光伏行业减产30%消息带动，光伏行业减产利空多晶硅，但是市场当做行业产能出清，需求见底来 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three metals (industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate) are rated as "oscillating" [4][6][10] Core Viewpoints - The hype about industrial silicon production cuts has cooled down, leading to a decline in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, as the smelting profit of industrial silicon recovers and the scale of production cuts shrinks, the prices of new energy metals have risen and then fallen. It is advisable to continue to bet on volatility with wide - straddle options. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1] - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but there is a possibility of re - accumulation [4][5] - For polysilicon, the price will show wide - range oscillations. The short - term supply is low, but the demand may weaken in the second half of the year [8][9] - For lithium carbonate, the price will maintain oscillations. The supply is in excess, but the short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports the price [10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - As of July 2, the spot price has slightly increased. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, with a 0.2% month - on - month decrease. In May 2025, the monthly production was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. The export volume in May was 55,652 tons, an 8.0% month - on - month decrease and a 22.5% year - on - year decrease. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a 105.5% month - on - month increase and a 388.0% year - on - year increase [4] - If the production cut scope expands in July, the supply - demand situation may improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand is weak, and the inventory may re - accumulate. The silicon price has fallen after rising, and manufacturers can consider hedging by selling at high prices. The future silicon price will oscillate [5] Polysilicon - The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts has not changed. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30% year - on - year, while the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. From January to May, the new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - The supply news is volatile, and the production is currently low. With the arrival of the wet season, the production in the southwest may increase. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The price will show wide - range oscillations [7][8][9] Lithium Carbonate - On July 1, the closing price of the main contract increased by 0.84% to 62,780 yuan. The total position decreased by 4,592 lots. The spot price remained unchanged. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its production line, with a 6 - month shutdown. [9] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to be good in July despite it being a traditional off - season. The social inventory is accumulating, and the warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. The price will maintain oscillations [10] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content [11][17][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, without policy disturbances, it is expected to go through a long - term capacity clearance cycle, and selling hedges on rallies are recommended. The market is currently affected by factors such as high inventory levels and potential restarts of production, with a weak fundamental outlook [2]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak due to reduced consumption, lower silicon wafer production schedules, high inventory pressure, and short - term supply increases. However, policy disturbances from the photovoltaic industry are significant, and the market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [5]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2509 opened at 8000 yuan/ton and closed at 7765 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton (- 4.31%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 361076 lots, and on July 2, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 52137 lots, a change of - 336 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly. The prices of some regions like Xinjiang and the Northwest rose, while individual prices in Kunming and Tianjin decreased. Prices in Huangpu Port, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic monomer enterprise operating rate continued to increase slightly, reaching about 70%. It is expected that the domestic DMC production schedule in July will increase by about 10,000 tons, leading to more consumption of industrial silicon [1]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 fluctuated. It opened at 33470 yuan/ton and closed at 32700 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.39% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 61196 lots (66333 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 261490 lots [3]. - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 3.67% to 23600 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 4.10% to 13.44GW [3][4]. - **Silicon Wafers**: In June, the domestic silicon wafer production was about 58GW, and the production schedule in July decreased by about 10% due to weak demand and tightened battery supply [4]. - **Battery Cells**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the price of Topcon210RN battery cells [4]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of N - type 182mm and N - type 210mm components [4]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Focus on range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedges on rallies [2]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [2]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [2]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [2]. - **Options**: Not recommended [2]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral [5]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [5]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [5]. - **Options**: Not recommended [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the stock market is warm, and the sentiment in the bond market has stabilized. For stock index futures, policies are starting to focus on manufacturing profits. For stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended. For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment has shown signs of stabilization [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Policies are starting to focus on manufacturing profits. New hot themes are emerging, with the Hengke Innovation Pharmaceutical Index excluding CXO companies and photovoltaic glass promoting production cuts, accelerating capacity clearance and driving up the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous industries. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes anti - "involution" in some manufacturing industries, which may boost the inflation chain. In the context of mid - year report announcements, attention to pre - announced performance increases may be strengthened. In a warm - sentiment environment, long positions should be maintained, and IM long positions are recommended [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate IM long positions [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating with an upward bias [5]. Stock Index Options - **View**: A covered defense strategy is recommended. The trading volume in the options market has been continuously declining, and the trading liquidity is lower than expected. In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators show synchronicity rather than guidance, and the average implied volatility of each option variety has decreased by 0.52%. Given the low liquidity and volatility and the ineffective guidance of sentiment indicators, and the resistance level above the index, a covered defense strategy is advisable [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered defense [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment has stabilized. After recent adjustments, the bond market sentiment stabilized yesterday. The central bank continued net capital injection, with a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The overall funding situation has eased, and the DR007 rate has slightly declined. The policy announced by the National Development and Reform Commission was in line with expectations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened. The market may be pre - gambling on June PMI data and the central bank's bond - buying restart. However, caution should still be exercised, and attention should be paid to June PMI data and central bank operations [2][5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Oscillating. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Appropriately pay attention to basis widening. Curve strategy: Steepening the yield curve in the medium - term has higher odds [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating [5][6]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI for June was 52.9, higher than the previous and predicted values of 52. The US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June are yet to be announced [7]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: From January to May, the added value of large - scale electronic information manufacturing enterprises increased by 11.1% year - on - year, 4.8 and 1.6 percentage points higher than the overall industry and high - tech manufacturing respectively. In May, the added value increased by 10.2% year - on - year. Mobile phone production was 570 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%, with smartphone production at 450 million units, a 2.1% decrease. Microcomputer equipment production was 130 million units, a 5.5% increase, and integrated circuit production was 193.5 billion pieces, a 6.8% increase [7]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high - quality development of innovative drugs, including supporting the use of healthcare insurance data for innovative drug R & D, strengthening information sharing among medical, healthcare insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors, and providing necessary healthcare insurance data services for innovative drug R & D on the premise of data security and compliance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The collective production cut of 30% by the top ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers is expected to help stabilize and recover glass prices, which have been under pressure due to oversupply and declining demand [1][3]. Industry Summary - On June 29, the decision for a 30% production cut was announced to address market supply-demand imbalances [3]. - Starting in July, major photovoltaic glass companies plan to implement this production cut, with expectations of a rapid decline in domestic supply, improving the supply-demand situation [3]. - The production cut is seen as a necessary measure to digest inventory and adjust production according to sales [7]. - In June, the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity increased, but demand weakened, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [8]. - As of June 30, the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 18.5 yuan/m², down 5.13% from the previous week, indicating significant price pressure [9]. Company Responses - Fuyao Glass reported that its glass furnaces are operating normally and have not ceased production [4]. - Qibin Group stated that it has not received any notifications regarding furnace shutdowns and is currently operating normally [5]. - Anhuai High-Tech mentioned that it has not issued any formal production cut notices and is currently operating at full capacity, although it anticipates a contraction in market demand in the second half of the year [6]. - Yamaton confirmed the validity of the production cut news, stating that it will facilitate sustainable development in the industry [6]. - Sanxia New Materials plans to halt production for maintenance on one of its glass production lines [7].

Group 1 - The news regarding the collective production cut of 30% by leading domestic photovoltaic glass companies starting in July is confirmed, which will accelerate capacity clearance and promote sustainable and healthy development of the industry [1] - The competition in the domestic photovoltaic glass industry is intensifying, while the significant demand in overseas markets provides a broad development space for photovoltaic glass companies [1] - The company’s board has recently approved a proposal to invest in a production line project in the UAE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons of photovoltaic glass, aiming to leverage local resource advantages and enhance its core technological strengths in the photovoltaic glass sector [1]

2025年上半年多晶硅价格虽有所下跌，但整体供应并未大幅缩减，系减产力度与有效性不足所致 市场博弈光伏减产政策预期升温。6月30日，多晶硅期货主力合约2507收涨3.46%，光伏板块同步触底 反弹，欧晶科技（001269.SZ）涨停，通威股份（600438.SH）涨逾7%，大全能源（688303.SH）收涨近 7%。 6月中旬以来，硅料企业当月产能置换情况逐渐展开，短期内下游压价严重，一线大厂几近无法成交， 二三线企业价格松动严重，呈现产量增加的态势，令市场认为减产不及预期，多晶硅期货现货价格再度 走跌。 上周周中，多晶硅期货主力合约创下上市后最低价，报31185元，现货市场亦成交低迷。当周，市场传 言多家企业多个基地新增复产计划，有统计显示，仅考虑已复产企业的生产情况，预期7月排产10.7万 吨，此水平的复产也足以带动多晶硅进入单月过剩。根据SMM，截至6月26日，中国多晶硅厂库存27万 吨，环比增加0.8万吨。 硅料价格下半年如何演绎？供需层面来看，4月光伏抢装潮结束后，国内光伏需求整体偏弱，海外方 面，欧洲7、8月进入暑休，短期内需求端难以支撑光伏产业链价格企稳。 对于硅料供给端变化影响，中信建投电新团 ...

Supply and Demand - As of June 19, 2025, the national float glass daily production is 155,400 tons, a decrease of 0.16% compared to June 12 [2] - For the week of June 13-19, 2025, the total float glass production reached 1,093,500 tons, an increase of 0.21% week-on-week, but a decrease of 7.88% year-on-year [2] - The total inventory of sample enterprises for float glass as of June 19, 2025, is 69.887 million heavy boxes, an increase of 202,000 heavy boxes week-on-week, which is a 0.29% increase, and a year-on-year increase of 16.82% [2] - The inventory days stand at 30.8 days, remaining stable compared to the previous period [2] Market Analysis - The glass market shows a strong performance, supported by the rise in prices of related commodities like coking coal, and improved sales in the spot market [3] - Demand is currently supported by strong purchasing from essential needs, but the market is expected to face limitations due to the seasonal slowdown during the summer rainy season [3] - The industry is experiencing excess capacity, and a resolution will require capacity reduction, with expectations for more cold repairs to bring about a genuine market reversal [3] - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 950 to 1050 points in the short term, with current support from improved spot market conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry must remain vigilant against potential technological devaluation and over-investment due to new technology spillover, as well as the risk of low-price competition being replicated in the energy storage sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The SNEC Shanghai Photovoltaic Exhibition showcased a significant number of companies presenting perovskite tandem cells/components and BC technology, indicating a trend towards embracing new technologies [2]. - Major companies like LONGi Green Energy, GCL-Poly, JinkoSolar, and others are investing heavily in upgrading their production lines, with costs reaching tens of millions of yuan per GW to maintain competitiveness [3]. - The exhibition saw a notable increase in foreign participation, with approximately 500,000 attendees, reflecting a growing international interest in the photovoltaic sector [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift where the low-price competition model from the photovoltaic sector is being adopted in the energy storage market, leading to a significant drop in profit margins [4]. - The energy storage market is witnessing a trend of price reductions, with some products priced below $120 per KWh, which has decreased profit margins from 40% to 20-30% [4]. - Despite a perceived recovery in the market, the industry is still on the brink of capacity clearance, with production rates in the downstream component sector dropping below 50% [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies are actively seeking solutions to mitigate "involutionary competition" within the photovoltaic industry, indicating a proactive approach to industry challenges [6].

Group 1: Liquor Industry - The liquor sector has shown a strong rebound, with major brands like "Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao" all experiencing significant gains [3][4] - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association's report indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a deep structural adjustment, characterized by "declining volume and rising profits," with a notable shift in consumer demographics and purchasing behavior [6][7] - The report highlights a decrease in the share of business banquets, prompting companies to adjust their product strategies, with a focus on mid-to-low-end products priced between 100 to 300 yuan [6][7] Group 2: New Energy Sector - The new energy sector has rebounded, particularly in the photovoltaic segment, with significant gains in stocks related to BC batteries and photovoltaic equipment [8][9] - Leading stock Haike New Source (301292) surged to a "20CM" limit-up shortly after market opening, indicating strong investor interest [9][12] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics by 2025, with global installation demand projected to reach 492GW to 568GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5% to 7% [13]