2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 12 月 PMI：重回扩张有何不寻常？ glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 31 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 事件：12 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 12 月中国采购经理指数运行情况。12 月份， 制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.1%，比上月上升 0.9 个百分点，升至扩张区 间。 12 月制造业 PMI 的"逆季节性"上升实属不易。不仅是时隔 8 个月、PMI 重回 扩张区间；更为关键的是，比起"春节效应"褪去后的 3 月 PMI 脉冲式升高，这 次 12 月 PMI 的"逆季节性"上升似乎含金量更足——受寒潮来袭、国内外节假 日等特殊因素影响，12 月 PMI 通常会季节性下降，但今年却环比逆势大幅上升 0.9pct、录得 50.1%的好成 ...

热门品种机构观点 光大期货表示，上周业内多条消息引发市场关注：2026年1月1日起，天齐锂业所有产品现货交易结算价 将调整为参考Mysteel的电池级锂盐价格，或者参考广期所的碳酸锂期货主力合约价格；湖南裕能部分 生产线将自2026年1月1日起检修，预计减少产量1.5—3.5万吨；万润新能将对部分产线按照预定计划进 行减产检修预计减少公司磷酸铁锂产量5000吨至2万吨；德方纳米对部分产线按既定安排进行检修，并 对部分设备进行技术改造，使生产设备达到最佳的运行水平，检修时间从2026年1月1日起，预计一个 月。目前来看，定价机制和价格传导方面存在部分问题，实际需要关注价格传导向下游是否顺畅以及强 需求是否能够得到验证。 创元期货表示，短期多空博弈激烈，利空点在于需求即将迎来传统淡季，且终端新能源汽车销量走弱， 一季度排产可能成为博弈重点，利多点在于行业经过连续十几周的去库，中下游碳酸锂库存处于较低水 平，即使去库放缓，但低库存水平对于盘面有较强支撑。短期涨幅过快，交易所多次限仓，需注意风 险，建议等宁德复产落地之后根据基本面进行判断，盘面投机情绪浓厚，波动较大。 三、铁矿石主力合约：下游需求超预期，铁矿石盘中一 ...

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者吴旭光 科创板日报 . 专注科创板和科技创新，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 又一家磷酸铁锂企业宣告停产检修。 继湖南裕能、万润新能、德方纳米之后， 安达科技于12月26日盘后发布公告，宣布自2026年1月1日起对部分产线开展为期一个月的停产 检修。 多家头部企业宣告按下检修"暂停键"， 背后是碳酸锂等上游原材料涨价、下游电芯企业拒接涨价传导的双重挤压， 而当前新能源汽车与储 能市场需求持续回暖，行业呈现"需求旺而盈利弱"的反差格局，加剧了企业的成本压力与亏损困境。 市场表现方面，截至12月26日收盘， 磷酸铁锂板块整体上涨2.11%， 安纳达、丰元股份强势涨停，万润新能、湖南裕能等个股亦跟涨明 显。 多家头部企业密集宣布检修 连日来，磷酸铁锂龙头接连宣告减产检修。 其中，12月26日早间，德方纳米公告，为保障公司产品质量，计划进行年度设备检修与维护工作，检修时间从2026年1月1日起，预计一个 月；紧随其后，12月26日盘后，安达科技亦发布停产检修公告，称自2026年1月1日起，公司将对部分产线进行检修，为期一个月。 更早前，12月25日，湖南裕能、万润新能接连宣布减 ...

Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to see new capacity primarily released in the second half of 2026, with a relatively tight supply in the first half, maintaining high industry capacity utilization rates [4] - On the demand side, battery manufacturers are expected to ramp up production after the Spring Festival (late February to March), coupled with seasonal inventory replenishment, leading to a phase of peak demand [4] Pricing Mechanism and Price Transmission - Major customer agreements adopt a "volume lock, price not locked" model, where prices are adjusted dynamically based on market conditions, typically using a "M-1 discount" method (discount based on the previous month's market price) [4] - Price transmission is smooth, with enhanced bargaining power along the supply chain, allowing cost pressures to be effectively passed down to downstream players [4] Market Trends - The growth in the energy storage market is outpacing that of the power market, indicating a shift in market dynamics [10] Strategic Moves - Companies like BYD are expanding their presence in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic focus on international markets [7]

Group 1: Company Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.97% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 45.43 million RMB, up 90.85% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.48 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.09% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 101 million RMB, an increase of 32.41% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - The company has three production bases located in Changsha, Shanghai, and Dongguan, with an annual production capacity of over 600,000 tons for surfactants and approximately 250,000 tons for cleaning products [2] - The production capacity distribution for surfactants is approximately 2:4:4 across the three bases, while all cleaning product capacity is located in the Changsha base [2] Group 3: International Business - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved foreign sales revenue of 418 million RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 53.07% [2] - The company is experiencing strong growth momentum in its overseas sales [2] Group 4: Pricing Strategy - The direct materials account for over 90% of the production costs for the main surfactant products [2] - The company has established strategic partnerships with core suppliers and employs a pricing strategy that links product sales prices to raw material procurement prices [2] - The company aims to effectively transmit raw material price fluctuations to product prices, enhancing overall profitability [2] Group 5: Market Share Enhancement - The company aims to strengthen its influence in the central, eastern, and southern regions of China through its three production bases [2] - It focuses on cost control and production efficiency to achieve product quality, cost optimization, and price competitiveness [2] - The company is committed to technological innovation and expanding its product matrix across multiple categories and fields [2] - The Shanghai production base is positioned as an international hub to enhance brand influence in international markets [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - Zhejiang Xinkai Technology Group Co., Ltd. raised CNY 165 million for R&D center and headquarters construction, and CNY 79.23 million for repaying bank loans, with projects progressing as planned [1] - The R&D center and headquarters are expected to be operational by Q3 2026 [1] Group 2: Production and Manufacturing - The company has two production bases; Liaoning Xinkai Industrial Co., Ltd. began trial production in 2024, gradually increasing capacity [1] - The products from self-built bases are focused on high value-added and high-performance products, which are expected to positively impact overall gross margin [1] Group 3: Sales and Pricing Strategy - The company employs a customized pricing strategy based on diverse downstream customer needs, with periodic or ad-hoc price negotiations [1] - Strong price transmission capability allows the company to adjust prices in response to significant cost fluctuations [1] Group 4: Gross Margin Comparison - The company's gross margin is relatively stable, differing from peers due to distinct business models and pricing strategies [2] - The company’s model involves customized procurement and sales, leading to stable gross margins compared to competitors affected by raw material prices and production capacity [2] Group 5: Future Development and Strategy - Future focus will be on organic pigment product development, driven by market demand and technological innovation [2] - The company aims to enhance R&D capabilities and smart factory construction to improve production efficiency and adaptability to market changes [2] Group 6: Export and International Market Impact - The company’s products play a significant role in the global supply chain, with a large portion being irreplaceable [2] - Price adjustment mechanisms allow the company to pass on most additional costs to downstream customers, minimizing operational impact from international trade barriers [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - September CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of -0.4%[5] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.74 percentage points to the CPI decline[8] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7%, impacting CPI by about 0.20 percentage points[8] Group 2: Core CPI Insights - Core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking a marginal improvement but still below expectations[9] - The low base effect from last year significantly influenced the core CPI rebound, as it dropped to 0.1% in September 2024[9] - The month-on-month core CPI growth was 0%, weaker than seasonal trends[9] Group 3: PPI Trends - September PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, a smaller decline than the expected -2.4%[14] - The PPI's tailing factor improved from -0.7% to -0.1%, contributing to the reduced decline[14] - Upstream and midstream prices showed signs of improvement, with more downstream industries experiencing price increases[16] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The PPI tailing factor is expected to drop to 0% in October, which may support a rebound in PPI[17] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy effects, unexpected geopolitical changes, and weaker-than-expected domestic demand[22] - International oil prices are currently declining, posing a risk of input cost pressures[20]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Beef Cattle Industry Industry Overview - The beef cattle industry is experiencing significant capacity reduction due to deep losses in 2024, leading to the culling of young and pregnant cows. The trend of capacity reduction is expected to continue into 2025, albeit at a slower pace. The southern regions have seen an 8% decline in cow inventory, with some areas experiencing reductions of up to 30% [1][2][3] - The supply of calves has noticeably decreased, with calf prices doubling at the beginning of 2025, indicating a future tightening of beef supply [1][2] Key Supporting Factors for the Beef Cattle Cycle 1. **Capacity Reduction**: The domestic beef cattle farming industry has faced supply shocks, leading to the culling of inefficient cows and the introduction of new breeding stock. The trend of culling continues into 2025, with calf supply significantly reduced [2][3] 2. **Global Price Transmission**: Major beef-producing countries like the US, Brazil, and Australia have also undergone capacity reductions. The CME live cattle futures price has doubled since 2020, and this global price increase is transmitted to the domestic market, supporting domestic beef prices [2][3] 3. **Policy Support**: The Chinese government is implementing measures to protect domestic farming, including an investigation into import safeguards that has affected import volumes, allowing the domestic market time to adjust [3] Market Conditions for 2025 and Beyond - In 2025, there will be a shortage of calves but an adequate supply of fattened cattle and finished meat. The impact of previous capacity reductions has not fully materialized, leading to a continued influx of cow meat into the market [4] - The price uptrend is expected to officially begin in 2026, with prices anticipated to rise significantly due to the effects of the severe capacity reduction in 2024, continuing through 2027 and possibly into 2028 [4] Characteristics of the Beef Cattle Industry Chain - The beef cattle industry chain includes upstream feed, midstream fattening and slaughter, and downstream consumption. Feed costs account for 50%-70% of farming costs, with a long growth cycle and low breeding efficiency [5] - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top 50 companies holding a small share of total inventory [5] Global and Domestic Meat Trade Dynamics - The top ten beef-producing countries account for 87% of global production, with the US being the largest producer at over 12 million tons. China produces around 8 million tons but still imports approximately 2.8 million tons, primarily from South America [6] - China's demand significantly influences global trade structures, with Brazil being the largest supplier, followed by Argentina and Australia [6] Cost Disparities in Beef Cattle Farming - Domestic beef cattle farming costs are significantly higher than in Brazil due to factors such as scarce pasture resources and high feed and labor costs. Domestic costs range from 10,000 to 20,000 yuan, while Brazilian costs are between 5,000 to 8,000 yuan [8] - The low level of industrialization and efficiency in domestic beef production contributes to these high costs [7][8] Historical Price Trends - Since 2000, domestic beef prices have generally trended upward, with a notable decline in 2023 due to increased supply and reduced consumption growth. This marked the first historical price drop, with inventory levels declining for two consecutive years [9] Current and Future Supply-Demand Situation - Domestic per capita beef consumption remains low compared to countries like Japan and South Korea, indicating significant growth potential. The consumption of high-quality beef is growing faster than that of regular beef, with premium varieties seeing growth rates of up to 30% [10] Investment Opportunities - The current phase represents a critical price turning point in the Chinese beef cattle market. Companies such as YouRan MuYe, China Shengmu, and Modern Farming are recommended for investment due to their ability to generate cash flow through the culling of dairy cows and their growth potential in the beef market [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that the price support from silicon materials is expected to gradually transmit through the industry chain, leading to a recovery in profitability. Additionally, the ongoing anti-involution efforts may result in supply-side policies that optimize the competitive landscape of the photovoltaic industry [1][2]. Silicon Material and Industry Chain - Silicon material prices have increased due to self-discipline within the polysilicon industry and market transactions, with mainstream prices for rod silicon rising to 55 RMB/kg and granular silicon to 49 RMB/kg. The ongoing production limits and sales restrictions are expected to support price transmission and profitability recovery in the industry chain [2]. - The recent bidding prices from China Resources and China Huadian have significantly increased, which may enhance industry confidence if domestic component price increases are realized [2]. Energy Storage Sector - The recent rise in energy storage cell prices indicates strong demand, with mainstream manufacturers seeing price increases of 0.003-0.01 RMB per watt-hour. The production of energy storage cells has reached historical highs since July, with leading manufacturers operating at full capacity [3]. - The global energy storage market is primarily driven by China, Europe, and the United States, with a shift from policy-driven to value-driven demand in the domestic market. The potential for future market growth is significant, especially in Europe and the U.S. [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from rising silicon material prices and tight supply, including Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and Xiexin Technology [4]. - It also recommends attention to companies involved in N-type technology iterations, such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, as profitability recovery in the battery and component sectors is anticipated [4]. - For the inverter and energy storage sectors, companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Hiber Technologies are highlighted due to strong overseas demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the photovoltaic industry [1] Core Views - The significant increase in procurement prices for photovoltaic components by China Resources and Huadian strengthens the expectation of price transmission, which is likely to enhance industry confidence and solidify profitability across the supply chain [2][14] - The domestic photovoltaic installation in July 2025 saw a decrease, attributed to the end of the "531" policy's rush for installations, but the overall annual growth in installations is expected to continue [13][14] - Export volumes for battery components and inverters remained stable, with a slight increase in export value for battery components in July 2025 [15][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: July Domestic Photovoltaic Installations and Exports - In July 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations were 11.04 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 48% and a month-on-month decrease of 23% [13] - Battery component exports in July amounted to 158.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14% but a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [15] - Inverter exports in July totaled 65.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16% but a month-on-month decrease of 1% [31] Section 2: Market Performance Review - The overall market performance for the photovoltaic industry has shown resilience, with a projected increase in global installations expected to reach 570-630 GW in 2025 [13] - The report highlights the performance of various regions, noting that exports to Europe and Asia have seen growth in July [20][24] Section 3: Photovoltaic Industry Chain Prices - The average prices for key materials such as polysilicon and solar cells remained stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation in the market [4] - The report details the procurement prices from major companies, indicating a trend towards higher prices which may impact future profitability [14]