Group 1 - South Korea's fertility rate has dropped to a record low of 0.72 in 2023, the lowest globally and less than half of the OECD average of 1.6 [1] - The aging population in South Korea is increasing at a faster rate than any other developed country, with the proportion of people aged 65 and older expected to exceed 40% by 2050, up from 17.9% in 2023 [1] - The elderly dependency ratio is projected to rise from 28% in 2023 to 44% by 2050, and could reach 117% by 2082, making it the highest among OECD countries [1] Group 2 - South Korea has the highest elderly poverty rate in the OECD, with 40% of older adults living below the poverty line, attributed to a weak national pension system [2] - Only 37% of South Koreans aged 55 to 64 are still employed, with many exiting the labor market prematurely, averaging retirement at 49.4 years old [2] - Companies in South Korea often prefer to lay off older employees due to the financial burden of higher salaries for long-tenured workers, leading to subtle layoffs [2] Group 3 - Japan has implemented various policies to encourage continued employment, including raising the mandatory retirement age and providing employment options for older workers [3] - By 2023, Japan's employment rate for those in their 60s reached 63% due to these reforms [3] - Despite awareness of the need for labor market reforms in South Korea, achieving such changes is challenging and requires a consistent reform approach [3]

面对这样的现实趋势，如何精准满足日益多元的老龄群体需求，成为银发经济发展的关键。 郝福庆介绍，老龄人口需求一定是多样化、多层次的，不可能是千人一面的。因此，老年人群体可以从 多个维度划分，比如分为活力老人、高龄老人和失能及半失能老人等，也可以从收入水平和兴趣爱好等 角度划分。每一类老年人的需求存在很大差异。 ▲国家发改委原一级巡视员郝福庆在第三届老龄产业发展论坛上做主旨演讲。 "人口老龄化是大趋势，大趋势带来大需求，大需求孕育大市场，大市场呼唤大服务，大服务依靠大科 技。"5月28日，在第三届老龄产业发展论坛上，国家发改委原一级巡视员郝福庆在发表主题为"拥抱银 发经济，共创美好未来"的主旨演讲中表示，银发经济将成为中国经济发展的新"增长极"。 大趋势：多变的时代，确定的未来 郝福庆表示，目前我国已经进入了中度老龄化社会，2024年末，60岁以上人口达到3.1亿，占总人口的 22%。总人口在减少，老年人口在净增，这是未来中国人口发展的新常态。"老龄化速度发展很快，25 年前老年人口为1.3亿，今天已达3.1亿，再过25年可能将超过5亿。" 谈及老龄化的成因，郝福庆解释，原因其实很简单，就是医疗条件改善了，生活水 ...

Group 1: Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7% during the same period[7] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3%[7] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income support increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[9] Group 2: Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term fiscal risks, with a consistent deficit rate below 3% reflecting a balanced fiscal approach[11] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the macro tax burden needing stabilization as general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP fell to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points since 2013[17] - The fiscal expenditure structure requires optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support, leading to potential demand deficiencies[19] Group 3: Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Transition from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to better support economic stability[21] - Fiscal policy objectives should balance short-term economic stability with long-term systemic challenges, addressing issues like population aging and digital economy risks[23] - Shift focus from income policies to expenditure policies, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal measures[28]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, suggesting that the current focus should be on promoting consumption due to various economic conditions [1][8] - It highlights the long-standing issues in China's domestic economic circulation, such as overcapacity in certain industries and insufficient effective demand, which have persisted since 2012 [2][5] - The article notes that the contribution of final consumption to GDP in China is below 40%, compared to over 50% in many other countries, indicating a need for policies that enhance household disposable income [9][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the structural issues in fiscal spending, where approximately 85% of expenditures are concentrated at the local government level, limiting the central government's macroeconomic control [14][17] - It suggests that local governments are incentivized to focus on investment due to performance evaluations based on GDP growth, which may lead to overinvestment in certain sectors and exacerbate capacity issues [14][15] - The article proposes that improving the income distribution structure and increasing the disposable income of lower-income groups could significantly boost consumption [10][11] Group 3 - The article addresses the demographic challenges posed by an aging population, predicting a decline in total population by 2027 and emphasizing the need for adjustments in fiscal policy to support this demographic shift [18][21] - It points out that as the population ages, the contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to increase, necessitating a focus on enhancing investment efficiency and consumption multiplier effects [21][22] - The article highlights the importance of aligning infrastructure investment with population migration trends to optimize resource allocation and improve economic efficiency [24][25]

Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7%[5] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3% during the same period[5] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income standards increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[7] Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term economic risks, with the deficit rate rarely exceeding 3%[9] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP dropping to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points from 2013[13] - The fiscal expenditure structure needs optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support[14] Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Shift from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to stimulate economic growth[16] - Enhance the focus on long-term challenges such as population aging and digital economy risks, ensuring fiscal policy addresses both short-term stability and long-term sustainability[18] - Transition from income policies to expenditure policies, emphasizing efficiency and effectiveness in fiscal measures[22]

2025年5月17日至18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳隆重召开。作为本届论坛的重要专题之 一，主题论坛十一以"人口老龄化的机遇与挑战"为题，聚焦全球养老金融体系建设，深入探讨人口结构 变化带来的深层影响，以及政策引导与市场机制协同下的制度应对路径。 本场论坛由清华大学五道口金融学院研究员、中国保险与养老金融研究中心主任、金融MBA教育中心主 任魏晨阳主持，并以圆桌讨论的形式展开。 论坛全程以英文进行，吸引了来自不同国家和地区的专家学者积极参与。 图为会议现场 本场论坛邀请了四位海内外嘉宾参与讨论，分别是：日本央行前行长、日本青山学院大学杰出客座教 授白川方明，原中国保险监督管理委员会党委副书记、副主席周延礼，清华五道口养老金融50人论坛 秘书长、中国人民大学公共管理学院、劳动人事学院原院长董克用，以及欧洲保险业联合会前主席塞 尔吉奥·巴比诺特。四位专家围绕养老金制度改革、人口结构变化对金融体系的影响、以及应对全球 老龄化趋势的跨国经验进行了深入研讨与交流。 魏晨阳 清华大学五道口金融学院研究员 日本青山学院大学杰出客座教授 中国保险与养老金融研究中心主任 金融MBA教育中心主任 论坛伊始，主持人魏 ...

Core Insights - By 2080, the global aging population is projected to reach 3 billion, with individuals aged 65 and older surpassing those under 18, indicating significant societal changes ahead [1] - The ongoing trend of population aging is leading to issues such as pension fund shortages and insufficient social security resilience, prompting discussions on necessary reforms in pension systems [1] Group 1: Global Aging Challenges - Japan and Europe are among the first regions to experience severe aging, with Japan's former central bank governor highlighting that aging leads to decreased productivity as older individuals tend to spend more on healthcare rather than other sectors [3] - The decline in birth rates alongside aging populations will result in overall population decreases, complicating resource allocation and increasing maintenance costs for public infrastructure in declining areas [3][4] Group 2: Pension System Reforms - The pension system in China consists of three pillars: basic pension insurance, enterprise annuities, and personal savings or commercial pension insurance, which require optimization in light of aging demographics [4][5] - Key issues in China's pension system include a lack of consensus on the necessity of all three pillars, low benefit levels for agricultural populations, and limited coverage of enterprise annuities, with only 10% of employees participating [5] Group 3: Enhancing Pension Participation - To improve the attractiveness of personal pension systems, it is suggested that financial institutions offer competitive products tailored to different customer needs and risk preferences [6] - The second pillar, enterprise annuities, also needs to increase participation rates, with recommendations for simplifying the enrollment process and creating a platform for all companies to join, thus reducing the need for unanimous employee voting [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum will be held in Shenzhen on May 17-18, 2025, focusing on the theme "A Shared Future: Building an Open and Inclusive Economic and Financial System" to create a high-level dialogue platform for global government officials, economists, and financial leaders to gather wisdom and seek new cooperation opportunities [17]. Agenda Summary - The forum will feature keynote speeches and multiple thematic discussions, including: - Keynote speeches on the first day [6][10] - Discussions on the future of the global monetary system, international trade and investment, challenges of global economic fragmentation, and the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [6][11] - Sessions on green finance, emerging market debt crises, and global financial stability presented by the IMF [6][12] - The second day will include discussions on China's economic outlook, technological innovation in finance, digital finance in the AI era, and sustainable investing [12][14] - Closed-door sessions focusing on financial security, aging population challenges, inclusive finance, and cross-border payment trends [7][14]

江苏省是我国人口"最老"的省份之一，九年之前就启动了长护险试点，并成为我国为数不多的已实现长护险制度区域全覆盖的省份。 编者按：经过九年的试点探索，长期护理保险这一社保"第六险"即将在全国范围内正式推开。自2016年首批15个国家城市试点以来，长护险已覆盖49个试点 城市，累计260余万失能参保人享受待遇，基金支出超800亿元。这项制度的全面实施，不仅关乎数千万失能人员的切身福祉，更将深刻重塑我国养老服务格 局，撬动万亿级银发经济新蓝海。 在试点收官、全国推开的这一关键时刻，第一财经将与政策制定者、照护行业从业者、受益者等做深入交流，总结地方探索的宝贵经验，前瞻制度落地可能 面临的新挑战，共同见证我国养老保障体系的历史性升级。 家住徐州市鼓楼区拾屯街道杨西村的失能老人陈先生，可能自己也没有想到，卧床不起两年之后，还能再一次站立起来。 两年前，陈先生因脑梗后遗症重度失能，连最简单的日常动作都需要别人帮忙。2023年7月，来自徐州市社康老年服务中心的长护险护理员石师傅开始上门 提供服务，严格按照康复流程为老人做肢体训练，从肌肉张力逐渐恢复，到能在搀扶下坐立，再到如今短暂的站立，陈先生的身体机能明显得以改善。 陈先 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in South Korea is the declining birth rate, with only 8% of children born in 2022 being third or more, the lowest among OECD countries [1] - In 2023, the proportion of children born as third or more further decreased to 7.5%, while the proportion of first-born children exceeded 60%, marking a record high since statistics began [1][2] - The average age of first-time mothers in South Korea is 33.5 years, the highest among OECD countries, contributing to the trend of late marriage and childbearing [2] Group 2 - The total fertility rate in South Korea has been declining since 2016, reaching a record low of 0.72 in 2023, with a slight increase to 0.75 in 2024, still far below the 2.1 needed for population stability [2] - South Korea is facing a severe demographic shift, with a significant number of young people delaying or forgoing marriage and childbirth due to high living costs and job market challenges [2][3] - The aging population is accelerating, with over 20% of the population aged 65 and above, leading to a natural population decrease of 120,000 in 2024 [3] Group 3 - The South Korean government has implemented various policies to encourage marriage and childbirth, including transportation subsidies for pregnant women and postpartum care subsidies [3] - Local governments are also engaging in initiatives like collective matchmaking events to boost marriage rates and, consequently, birth rates [3]