Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous release of the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to disrupt the current calm in the U.S. bond market, potentially leading to significant volatility [1] Group 1: Auction Demand and Market Sentiment - Investor focus is on the demand for upcoming auctions, particularly due to concerns that trade policies may deter foreign buyers, who are typically significant holders of U.S. Treasuries [2] - The recent poor performance of the 20-year Treasury auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 and a yield of 5.047%, reflects growing investor anxiety [2] - Recent 10-year Treasury auctions have shown robust performance, with foreign investor participation above average, indicating that inflation concerns may outweigh trade worries [2] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Economists predict a 0.2% month-over-month increase in CPI and a 2.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year [3] - There are concerns that any unexpected rise in inflation could unsettle investors, posing risks to the labor market and economic growth [3] Group 3: Potential Risks from Auction Performance - A poor performance in the bond auction combined with higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a sharp increase in bond yields, representing a dual threat to the market [4] - The upcoming auction of long-term bonds is crucial for gauging investor interest in U.S. Treasuries amid rising debt and deficit concerns [5] - Experts warn that continued poor auction results could signal deeper issues in the market, with rising yields being a significant concern [5]

两年期德债收益率跌1.7个基点，报1.847%，日内交投于1.866%-1.842%区间；30年期德债收益率跌4.2 个基点，报2.970%。 2/10年期德债收益率利差跌2.318个基点，报+67.458个基点。 周二（6月10日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率下跌4.4个基点，报2.523%，全天处于震荡下跌状 态，整体交投于2.564%-2.516%区间。 ...

Group 1 - European government bonds opened mostly flat, with the 2-year German government bond yield unchanged at 1.87% [1] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point to 2.56% and 3% respectively [1] - Traders are awaiting the German 2030 bond auction and comments from European Central Bank officials Villeroy and Rehn [1] Group 2 - Traders have increased bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, now expecting a 45 basis point cut by the end of the year, up from 41 basis points on Monday [1] - Data shows that the number of employed individuals in the UK has seen its largest decline since 2020, with wage growth slowing [1]

两年期德债收益率跌1.6个基点，报1.864%，日内交投于1.881%-1.837%区间；30年期德债收益率涨0.3 个基点，报3.012%。 周一（6月9日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率跌0.9个基点，报2.567%，日内交投于2.593%-2.514% 区间，北京时间16:16刷新日低，随后持续反弹，在20:59刷新日高。 2/10年期德债收益率利差涨0.785个基点，报+69.775个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury bonds have recovered some losses from the previous week, providing a brief respite ahead of the 30-year bond auction scheduled for Thursday [1] - The yield curve has seen a decrease of 2 to 3 basis points, aligning with European bond trends, reversing a significant sell-off triggered by better-than-expected U.S. employment data [1] - The upcoming auction of $22 billion in 30-year bonds will be closely scrutinized due to recent volatility in the long-term U.S. Treasury market, amid rising concerns over national debt and deficits [1] Group 2 - Since early April, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has been on the rise, peaking at 5.15% on May 22, the highest level in 2023, with a recent drop to 4.95% [3] - Investment managers are adopting steeper positions, profiting from the underperformance of long-term bonds compared to short-term ones, indicating a shift away from monetary policy influence [3] - The upcoming CPI report for May is expected to show an increase in year-over-year inflation from 2.3% to 2.5%, which could impact risk sentiment and limit the upside for the dollar [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a strong consolidation, with expectations that the central bank will maintain its current policy on reverse repos to ensure liquidity in the banking system [1][5][7]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.35% to 119.780, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.17% to 108.925 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.25 basis points to 1.6655% [2]. Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank conducted a 1350 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total of 2911 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan [5][6]. - The central bank is set to conduct a 10,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation for three months, marking the first public operation of this kind at the beginning of the month [5][7]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities suggests that the buyout reverse repo operations will continue to be a channel for medium to long-term liquidity, with pricing becoming more market-oriented [7]. - Dongfang Jincheng notes that the central bank's announcement of large-scale buyout reverse repos is likely related to the peak of interbank certificate maturities in June, which amounts to 4.16 trillion yuan [7]. - Huachuang Fixed Income indicates that the central bank's approach to announcing operation scales in advance will help institutions manage liquidity better [7].

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.5%, indicating economic uncertainty and multiple factors affecting market direction [1] - Global investors are reassessing debt and deficit issues across countries, not just in the U.S., with expectations of rising global bond yields [1][2] - The decline in the international appeal of U.S. Treasuries is evident as foreign investors, particularly from Japan, shift their focus back to domestic markets due to rising Japanese bond yields [2] Group 2 - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest among developed countries at 235%, while the U.S. stands at 122% [3] - Concerns are rising regarding European sovereign debt as fiscal pressures increase, with Germany's 10-year bond yield expected to rise from 2.5% to 3% [3] - The U.S. fiscal policy and tariff uncertainties complicate predictions for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is projected to end the year at 4.25% [3] Group 3 - A proposed tax bill in the U.S. could increase the fiscal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with the current fiscal deficit at 6.4% of GDP [4] - The likelihood of a severe market reaction similar to the U.K.'s past situation is considered low due to high current yields helping to stabilize the market [4] Group 4 - A sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields could negatively impact the stock market, leading to wider credit spreads and tighter financial conditions, ultimately suppressing economic growth [5] - Concerns about U.S. debt management are highlighted, with warnings that failure to control debt could lead to significant market disruptions [5]

意大利10年期债券收益率下跌5个基点，最新报3.45%，为自2月10日以来的最低水平。 ...

英国央行副行长布里登：债券收益率的上升并非英国单方面的现象。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：不会对债券收益率的短期变动发表评论。 ...