农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米期价震荡下行，日线以小阴线收盘。现货主体卖粮意愿增加，市场情 绪有所改变。目前，国内玉米均价 2359 元/吨，价格上涨 7 元/吨。虽然今日期 | | | | 货市场表现一般，但东北玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，贸易商根据库存情况 | | | | 操作思路不一，深加工玉米收购价格处于高位，对行情有一定的支撑。周末企业 | | | 玉米 | 经过下跌后，今日华北地区玉米价格整体维持稳定，目前贸易商的心态依然是下 | 震荡 | | | 跌不出货，因此价格对市场供应的调整比较有效。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨， | | | | 港口贸易商报价上调 10-20 元/吨。产区贸易商挺价心态浓厚，中储粮玉米拍卖 | | | | 多溢价成交，但今日期货表现偏弱，市场整体交易一般。技术上，玉米期价高位 | | | | 震荡，现货市场情绪有所分化，警惕期价展开调整。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收高，创下三个月新高，因贸易紧张局势缓解以及美国农业部 报告利多帮助大豆价格回 ...

2025年05月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：关税预期缓和，宏观影响显现 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦缓和、美豆收涨，连粕或反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：市场乐观情绪推动棉花期货反弹 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：偏强震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：等待矛盾释放 | 11 | | 花生：现货偏强 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 13 日 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：关税预期缓和，宏观影响显现 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,886 | -0.28% | 8,022 | 1.72% | | | ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 Z0019938 王浅辉 2025年5月12日 | | | 原田 | | | 5月8日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 江苏一级 8260 30 0.36% | | | 0.33% 期价 | | | 364 360 星差 4 1.11% | | | - | | | 8.80% | | | 棕榈油 | | | 5月8日 张跌幅 涨跌 | | | 0.35% | | | 0.86% | | | P2509 324 364 -40 星差 -10.99% | | | - | | | 0.40% | | | 13.26% | | | 仓单 330 330 0 0.00% | | | 菜籽油 | | | 26666 5月8日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 0.00% | | | 0.64% | | | 墓差 01509 20 80 -60 -75.00% | | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 09+120 09 + 100 20 - | | | じ車 1707 1229 478 - | | | 价差 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The risk at the origin has not been fully released, and it may continue to decline before entering a bottom - oscillation pattern. There is strong support during the decline, and it is necessary to wait for the opportunity to rise in the third quarter [6]. - Soybean oil: Unilateral drive is insufficient, and it runs relatively strongly among varieties. It follows the fluctuations of the palm - oil and US - soybean - oil - led oil and fat sectors and maintains a relatively strong operation among varieties when palm oil is seasonally under - allocated and soybean - oil inventory is low [9]. - Soybean meal: It is expected to be weakly operated in the short term, and the market should wait for the guidance of the USDA report [17][21]. - Soybean: Due to the expectation of state - reserve sales, the futures may be weakly oscillated [17][21]. - Corn: It is expected to run strongly, and the supply - and - demand pattern remains tight [39][43]. - Sugar: It is mainly in the range consolidation, with the international market stabilizing and the domestic market focusing on the narrowing opportunity of the internal - and - external price difference [58][60]. - Cotton: It is expected to oscillate and wait for the fundamental drive, and the market should pay attention to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [86][87]. - Live pigs: The near - end contradictions are still accumulating, and the market is waiting for a direction [111]. Summary According to the Directory Palm Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: The selling pressure at the origin was continuously realized, and it rebounded slightly following crude oil. The 09 contract of palm oil fell 3.22% last week [5]. - **This Week's View and Logic**: The production in Malaysia in April showed unexpected growth, and the inventory levels in Indonesia and Malaysia were quite different. After the phased selling pressure was released, there was no further resonance - downward trend in the fundamentals. Although it was still seasonally under - allocated, there was strong support during the decline. The market's pricing expectation for palm oil still came from the resumption of production at the origin. The risk at the origin had not been fully released, and palm oil might continue to decline before entering a bottom - oscillation pattern [6]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: It mainly fluctuated following the oil - and - fat sector and international oil prices. The domestic spot - opening situation had not fully relaxed, the soybean - palm price difference continued to rise, and the 09 contract of soybean oil fell 0.66% last week [5]. - **This Week's View and Logic**: In the international market, funds continued to push up the trading of the US - soybean oil - to - meal ratio. The logic of being long on US soybean oil and short on BMD was still valid. The biggest bullish factor for US soybean oil was the risk premium before the RVO announcement. In the international oil - and - fat supply, attention should be paid to when the new South - American soybean - oil listing would show the price pressure. In the domestic market, if the arrivals in May and June were more than 1.2 billion tons and the opening situation was good, the soybean - oil inventory would accumulate from May to July and might decline after July [7][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Market Situation**: The US - soybean futures prices rose and fell alternately. The domestic soybean - meal futures prices were weakly oscillated, and the soybean futures prices rose first and then fell [17]. - **This Week's Forecast**: It is expected that the prices of soybean - meal and soybean futures will be weakly operated. The domestic soybean - meal trading may focus on the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the pressure of soybean arrivals in the second quarter. For domestic soybeans, although the market's remaining grains are less and the spot prices are strong, the expectation of state - reserve sales is expected to suppress the upward space of soybean prices [21]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of May 9. In the futures market, the market oscillated after a rapid rise [39][40]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices corrected, corn - starch inventories rose, and the corn market was expected to run strongly due to the tight supply - and - demand pattern [40][43]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: In the international market, the New York raw - sugar active contract price rose 3.18%. In the domestic market, the spot price of Guangxi groups and the Zheng - sugar main contract price both decreased [58][59]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to stabilize, and the domestic market is mainly in the range consolidation. The domestic market should focus on the narrowing opportunity of the internal - and - external price difference [60]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton oscillated downward, and the domestic textile industry's operation was stable. The domestic cotton futures were affected by the weak - demand expectation and external - market factors and were expected to oscillate at a low level [86][87]. - **Operation Suggestion**: ICE cotton is expected to oscillate, and the domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The market should pay attention to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [109]. Live Pigs - **This Week's Market Review**: In the spot market, live - pig prices were strongly oscillated. In the futures market, live - pig futures prices were oscillated and adjusted [111]. - **Market Outlook**: The near - end contradictions are still accumulating, and the market is waiting for a direction [111].

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for apples is to be bullish with fluctuations [3] Core View - Apple futures prices closed lower yesterday, but the enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing goods is high. After the holiday, apple prices remain stable. The new season's apples have entered the fruit - setting period, with a poor performance in the western region. The late - Fuji apple's shipping speed continues to accelerate. Boosted by the traditional consumption peak season and the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm of merchants in the producing areas to search for goods is high, and the price has increased significantly compared with that before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The de - stocking speed of apples is faster than that of the same period last year, and the remaining inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. Although the new season's apples are uncertain, the strengthening of the spot market is relatively certain [2] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,795 yuan/ton, a change of - 91 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.15%. In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apples was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 405, a change of + 91 from the previous day. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late - Fuji apples was 4.30 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 805, a change of + 91 from the previous day. After the holiday, merchants in the apple market look for goods as needed, mainly shipping pre - packaged goods. The transaction of merchants' goods in the western producing areas is stable, and spot merchants' purchases are okay. In Shandong, the number of merchants looking for goods has slightly decreased compared with before the holiday, but the high - cost - effective goods are still selling well, and the price of in - warehouse goods is relatively stable. The sales in the sales areas are okay, and downstream wholesalers maintain on - demand purchases [1] - **Market Analysis**: Apple futures prices closed lower yesterday. The enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing goods is high, and apple prices remain stable after the holiday. The new season's apples have entered the fruit - setting period, with a poor performance in the western region. It is necessary to continuously track the weather conditions in the producing areas. The late - Fuji apple's shipping speed continues to accelerate. Boosted by the traditional consumption peak season and the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm of merchants in the producing areas to search for goods is high, and the price has increased significantly compared with that before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The de - stocking speed of apples is faster than that of the same period last year, and the remaining inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The remaining goods in the western producing areas are relatively concentrated, mainly merchants' goods. The sales of farmers' goods in Shandong are accelerating, and the secondary producing areas are gradually clearing their warehouses. The resistance to price cuts in the market is strong. In the sales areas, the arrival of goods in the Guangdong Chalong market last week increased slightly compared with the previous week, the market sales improved, downstream customers replenished goods as needed, and the digestion progress was good, with no obvious backlog in the transfer warehouses. Most producing areas have entered the flowering period, and some areas have entered the fruit - setting period. Low - temperature freezing, strong winds, high - temperature drought, etc. have a greater impact on fruit - setting. The fruit - setting in Shaanxi is generally poor. The new season's apples are uncertain, but the strengthening of the spot market is relatively certain. The market is mainly trading on the strong reality, and it is not yet known whether there is a weak expectation. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the weather, fruit - setting, thinning, and bagging in the producing areas. Recently, seasonal fresh fruits will be on the market in large quantities, and the rising temperature may have a certain impact on apples. However, the output of melons has decreased this year, so it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of melon price fluctuations on apples. Currently, there are not many remaining goods in the producing areas, and the ownership of goods is relatively concentrated, and the enthusiasm of merchants to search for goods remains undiminished [2] - **Strategy**: The investment strategy for apples is to be bullish with fluctuations [3] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for red dates is neutral [6] Core View - Red date futures closed lower yesterday. The Dragon Boat Festival stocking is in an orderly manner. The supply of goods in the sales areas is sufficient, with mostly sub - standard goods arriving. The trading volume of high - quality goods is okay. The red date production in 2024 exceeded expectations, and the market has no obvious differences in the fundamentals of red dates. The peak consumption season for red dates has passed, and the current futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased slightly last week. It is currently the traditional off - season, with an increasing supply of seasonal fruits and a weakening demand for tonics. The market trading atmosphere for red dates is poor. According to the seasonal law of red dates, the off - season for consumption will last until September. Since last week, some downstream traders have started to stock up for the Dragon Boat Festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent replenishment intensity, and the sales may improve. The market's focus will shift to the growth of new - season red dates. Currently, the jujube trees in the southern Xinjiang main producing areas have entered the budding stage. Due to the large output of red dates in the 2024 season, there is a problem of over - exhaustion of jujube trees, so the potential hidden dangers in the new - season growth have increased, and the probability of market opportunities arising from the growth situation in the flowering and fruit - setting stages has increased [5] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 9,015 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.39%. In Hebei, the spot price of first - grade grey jujubes was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 715, a change of + 35 from the previous day. In the Xinjiang grey jujube main producing areas, the jujube trees germinate in batches. Currently, the growth is normal, and the earlier - germinated jujube trees have shown flower buds. Jujube farmers are actively carrying out field management, and the bud - rubbing work has started in Hotan. As the weather warms up, it is necessary to pay attention to the growth situation and weather changes in the producing areas. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 10 trucks of goods arrived at the parking area, including both sub - standard and finished products, and the prices vary according to the quality of the arrived goods. The reference price for first - grade jujubes is 8.00 - 8.50 yuan/kg, and the market transaction is average. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 8 trucks of goods arrived, and the mainstream market price remained stable. The prices vary according to the quality of the arrived goods. The reference price for special - grade jujubes is 10.00 - 11.00 yuan/kg, and for first - grade jujubes is 8.60 - 9.20 yuan/kg. Merchants purchase goods as needed, and about 3 trucks of goods were traded [3][4] - **Market Analysis**: Red date futures closed lower yesterday. The Dragon Boat Festival stocking is in an orderly manner. The supply of goods in the sales areas is sufficient, with mostly sub - standard goods arriving. The trading volume of high - quality goods is okay. The red date production in 2024 exceeded expectations, and the market has no obvious differences in the fundamentals of red dates. The peak consumption season for red dates has passed, and the current futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased slightly last week. It is currently the traditional off - season, with an increasing supply of seasonal fruits and a weakening demand for tonics. The market trading atmosphere for red dates is poor. According to the seasonal law of red dates, the off - season for consumption will last until September. Since last week, some downstream traders have started to stock up for the Dragon Boat Festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent replenishment intensity, and the sales may improve. Jujube trees are light - loving crops, requiring at least 11 - 12 hours of sunlight per day. Appropriate temperature and humidity conditions are crucial for flowering and fruiting. Excessive drought or low temperature will affect the yield and quality. The market's focus will shift to the growth of new - season red dates. Currently, the jujube trees in the southern Xinjiang main producing areas have entered the budding stage. Due to the large output of red dates in the 2024 season, there is a problem of over - exhaustion of jujube trees, so the potential hidden dangers in the new - season growth have increased, and the probability of market opportunities arising from the growth situation in the flowering and fruit - setting stages has increased [5] - **Strategy**: The investment strategy for red dates is neutral. Currently, the absolute price is at a low level. In the short term, the price of red dates is still supported by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the market opportunities brought about by the impact of the over - exhaustion in the 2024 red date season and weather changes on the growth of new - season red dates [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures may rebound to 3900 - 4000 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures may stop falling and rebound around 7800 yuan. US soybean oil demand may be poor, and domestic soybean arrivals will increase, making factory soybean oil supply shift from tight to loose, with a long - term bearish outlook [1]. Meal - US soybeans are in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation currently. Brazilian supply pressure continues, and domestic soybean arrivals are abundant. Domestic supply is expected to recover, and attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [2]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of second - round fattening and slaughter [5][6]. Corn - Market supply is tight, and spot prices are strong. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and port inventories need to be digested. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, they may be under pressure [8]. Sugar - Supply concerns are alleviated. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern after the festival [12]. Cotton - In the short - term, macro factors dominate the market, and there may be large fluctuations. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and domestic cotton prices may show a shock trend [13]. Eggs - In May, demand may support egg prices to remain high and stable. In June, the contradiction of supply exceeding demand may peak, dragging down egg prices. 06 and 07 contracts' previous high - position short orders can be closed at low prices [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: Soybean oil spot and futures prices are stable, palm oil spot and futures prices decline slightly, and rapeseed oil spot and futures prices rise slightly. There are also changes in various spreads [1]. - **Inventory**: Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories change, and palm oil inventory remains the same [1]. Meal - **Prices**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices have minor changes, and soybean prices also show different trends. There are changes in various spreads and oil - meal ratios [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans change to different extents [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline slightly, and the position of the main contract increases [5]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or have minor changes, and various spot indicators also show different trends [5]. Corn - **Corn**: Futures prices decline slightly, spot prices are stable, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. - **Corn Starch**: Futures prices decline, spot prices rise, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, and ICE raw sugar prices rise. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [12]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions decline, and import sugar prices also change. There are changes in production, sales, and inventories [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts are stable or have minor changes, and ICE US cotton prices decline. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [13]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions have minor changes, and various indicators such as spreads and import prices change [13]. Eggs - **Prices**: Futures prices of different contracts have minor changes, and spot prices in different regions decline slightly. There are changes in basis, spreads, and other prices [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Prices of egg - laying chicken seedlings, culled chickens, and other related indicators change [15].

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：国际油价反弹，短时提供支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：品种间保持偏强 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆小幅反弹，连粕或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 8 | | 棉花：仍缺乏上涨驱动 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 11 | | 生猪：关注远月套利 | 12 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 棕榈油：国际油价反弹，短时提供支撑 豆油：品种间保持偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 | | | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,908 7,760 | -0.08% -0.33% | 7,952 7,832 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil may face renewed pressure in the short - term due to concerns about growing May production and slower export growth, with a long - term cautious and bearish view. Domestic palm oil futures are weak, and there is a risk of hitting new lows. CBOT soybeans are affected by potential changes in US biodiesel policies, while domestic soybeans have some support from post - holiday restocking and high order backlogs, but the basis may decline as supply increases [1]. Meal - US soybeans are falling with US soybean oil. The spring sowing progress is fast, and the Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. In May, domestic arrivals are recovering, oil mill operations are increasing, but demand is weak, so the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - During the May Day holiday, the live pig spot price was stable. In May, the secondary - fattened pigs are expected to be sold, which will suppress the spot price. The 09 contract has factored in the weak post - holiday expectation. The market has limited upside drivers but no basis for a sharp decline, and the post - holiday slaughter behavior of farmers should be monitored [6]. Corn - The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is strong. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support the price. In the short - term, it will fluctuate at a high level and may be pressured by new wheat listings and policy releases. Attention should be paid to the 2240 pressure level [9]. Cotton - In the short - term, the cotton market is dominated by macro factors and may be volatile. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate, and macro trends should be closely watched [12]. Sugar - Supply concerns have eased as the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season has started well. In India, the 24/25 sugar - crushing season is nearing its end. In China, rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The overall domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate after the holiday [15]. Eggs - Post - holiday replenishment in the downstream market has slightly accelerated the egg sales, but due to supply pressure, the egg price is stable with minor fluctuations. In May, demand may support the price at a high level, while in June, the oversupply may drag down the price. Short - selling is recommended for the 06 and 07 contracts [17]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8240 yuan, down 0.72% from April 30. The futures price of Y2509 is 7900 yuan, down 1.03%. The basis has increased by 6.92%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 33.71% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8620 yuan, down 1.49% from April 30. The futures price of P2509 is 8430 yuan, down 2.16%. The basis has increased by 41.79%. The import profit in Guangzhou Port in September has decreased by 487.05% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 9340 yuan, down 0.53% from April 30. The futures price of Ol509 is 9240 yuan, down 0.71%. The basis has increased by 19.05% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread has decreased by 12.90%, the palm oil 09 - 01 spread is unchanged, and the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread has increased by 4.20%. The soybean - palm oil spread has increased by 32.28%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread has decreased by 0.61% [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3200 yuan, down 5.88%. The futures price of M2509 is 2915 yuan, down 0.17%. The basis has decreased by 40.63%. The import profit from Brazil in June has increased by 4.3%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 21.5% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2500 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 is 2548 yuan, up 0.47%. The basis has increased by 14.29%. The import profit from Canada in July has decreased by 675.00%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 12.14% [3]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, up 0.76%. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4209 yuan, up 0.50%. The basis has increased by 3.78%. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3640 yuan, up 0.55%. The futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3536 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis has increased by 73.33%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 28.55% [3]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread has decreased by 4.26%, the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread is unchanged. The oil - meal ratio in the spot market has increased by 5.48%, and in the main contract, it has decreased by 0.75%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market has decreased by 23.91%, and in the 2509 contract, it has decreased by 4.43% [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract has increased by 25.93% to 1020 yuan/ton. The prices of the 2507 and 2509 contracts have increased by 0.41% and 0.36% respectively. The 7 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.08%. The main contract's open interest has increased by 1.48%, and the number of warehouse receipts is unchanged [6]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions have different changes. For example, the price in Henan has increased by 260 yuan/ton, while in Liaoning, it has decreased by 250 yuan/ton. The daily slaughter volume has decreased by 0.87%, the weekly white - strip price has decreased by 100.00%, the weekly piglet price has increased by 0.22%, the weekly sow price is unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight has increased by 0.22%, the weekly self - breeding profit has decreased by 15.09%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit has decreased by 9.49%, and the monthly sow inventory has decreased by 0.66% [6]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the 2507 contract is 2365 yuan, down 0.50%. The Jinzhou Port flat - storage price has increased by 1.32%. The basis has increased by 43.30%. The 7 - 9 spread has increased by 6.67%. The Shekou bulk grain price has increased by 1.29%. The north - south trade profit is unchanged. The CIF price has decreased by 1.27%, and the import profit has increased by 46.19%. The number of early - morning vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased by 67.79%. The open interest has decreased by 4.45%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 3.53% [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2507 contract is 2741 yuan, down 0.25%. The Changchun spot price and the Weifang delivery price are unchanged. The basis has increased by 5.47%. The 7 - 9 spread has increased by 7.35%. The starch - corn spread has increased by 1.35%. The Shandong starch profit has decreased by 3.01%. The open interest has increased by 0.83%, and the number of warehouse receipts is unchanged [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract is 12745 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract is 12940 yuan, down 0.15%. The ICE US cotton main contract has decreased by 1.04%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 7.14%. The main contract's open interest has increased by 1.11%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 0.69%, and the valid forecast has decreased by 9.20% [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B has decreased by 0.57%, the CC Index: 3128B has decreased by 0.49%, the FC Index:M: 1% has increased by 1.84%. The spreads between 3128B and the 01 and 05 contracts have decreased by 6.30% and 6.11% respectively. The spread between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% has decreased by 50.32% [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory has decreased by 6.7%, the industrial inventory has decreased by 0.5%, the import volume has decreased by 41.7%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 2.2%, the textile industry's inventory year - on - year has decreased by 4.4%, the yarn inventory days have increased by 3.3%, the grey - cloth inventory days have increased by 1.6%, the cotton outbound shipment volume has increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 6.5%, the clothing and textile retail sales are N/A, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textile retail sales has increased by 9.1%, the textile yarn and fabric export volume has increased by 93.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn and fabric exports has increased by 163.1%, and the clothing and apparel export volume has increased by 68.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and apparel exports has increased by 130.7% [12]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract is 5742 yuan, down 0.07%. The price of the 2509 contract is 5890 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 0.11%. The 1 - 9 spread has decreased by 4.96%. The main contract's open interest has decreased by 0.28%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 0.42%. The valid forecast is unchanged [15]. - **Spot**: The Nanning price has decreased by 0.24%, the Kunming price has decreased by 0.25%. The Nanning basis has decreased by 6.04%, and the Kunming basis has decreased by 12.16%. The imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) price has decreased by 1.23%, and the out - of - quota price has decreased by 1.27%. The spread between in - quota Brazilian sugar and the Nanning price has decreased by 3.72%, and the spread between out - of - quota Brazilian sugar and the Nanning price has decreased by 56.52% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national sugar production cumulative value has increased by 12.27%, the national sugar sales cumulative value has increased by 26.64%. The Guangxi sugar production cumulative value has increased by 5.83%, and the monthly sales value has increased by 6.01%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate has increased by 12.80%, and the Guangxi cumulative sugar - sales rate has increased by 12.73%. The national industrial inventory has decreased by 1.79%, the Guangxi industrial inventory has decreased by 6.50%, the Yunnan industrial inventory has increased by 0.12%. Sugar imports have increased by 600.00% [15]. Eggs - **Price and Spread**: The price of the 09 contract is 3761 yuan/500KG, down 0.79%. The price of the 06 contract is 2884 yuan, down 1.97%. The egg - producing area price has decreased by 0.88%. The basis has increased by 11.25%. The 9 - 6 spread has decreased by 3.21%. The egg - chicken chick price has decreased by 1.18%, the culled - chicken price has increased by 0.96%, the egg - feed ratio has increased by 1.51%, and the breeding profit has increased by 29.39% [17].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月7日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | гнен | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8300 | -60 | -0.72% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7900 | 7982 | -82 | -1.03% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 340 | 318 | 22 | 6.92% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 09+420 | 09+380 | 40 | - | | | 仓单 | | 5355 | 4005 | 1350 | 33.71% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 2月6日 | 4月30日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8620 | 8750 | -130 | -1.49% | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View After the May Day holiday, the oil and fat sector continued to decline, with palm oil leading the drop. The egg price gap dropped, and the apple price fluctuated greatly. Different agricultural products showed different trends due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policies [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to decline after May Day. The production in the palm oil - producing areas increased smoothly, and the inventory was expected to rise. The domestic purchase volume increased and the cost decreased. Technical indicators showed weakness. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7880 and resistance at 8000 [3][4] (2) Soybean Oil - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil oscillated and declined. The external market price dropped, and the domestic supply was expected to improve. Technical indicators turned weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 7714 and resistance at 7742 [5] (3) Soybean Meal - Key points: The main 2509 contract of soybean meal continued to decline with oscillations. The external market price was under pressure, and the domestic supply was expected to increase. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2930 [7] (4) Corn - Key points: The main 2507 contract of corn rose first and then fell with oscillations, but the upward trend remained unchanged. Factors such as low remaining grain, reduced imports, and increased demand supported the price. Technical indicators were strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position at low prices, with support at 2358 and resistance at 2384 [9] (5) Live Pigs - Key points: The 2509 contract of live pigs first declined and then rose with oscillations, but the downward trend remained. The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was insufficient. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position at high prices, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [12] (6) Sugar - Key points: The main 2509 contract of sugar opened low and closed high with oscillations. Good sales and approaching peak consumption season supported the price. The price was still under the moving - average pressure. The recommended strategy was short - term trading, with support at 5866 and resistance at 5900 [13][15] (7) Eggs - Key points: The main 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline with a large gap. The supply was sufficient, and the demand decreased during the holiday. Technical indicators were weak. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 2852 and resistance at 2900 [16] (8) Cotton - Key points: The main 2509 contract of cotton opened high and closed low. The textile industry entered the off - season, and the demand was weak. Technical indicators showed a downward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - short position, with support at 12600 and resistance at 12800 [18] (9) Apples - Key points: The main 2510 contract of apples opened high and closed low with large fluctuations, but the upward trend remained. Good sales during the holiday, low inventory, and possible yield reduction supported the price. Technical indicators showed an upward trend. The recommended strategy was to hold a long position at low prices, with support at 7908 and resistance at 8000 [22] (10) Soybean No.1 - Key points: The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 rebounded. The reduction of remaining grain supported the price. Technical indicators turned strong. The recommended strategy was to hold a light - long position, with support at 4176 and resistance at 4246 [23][26]