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农产品周报:国内供应宽松,豆粕价格弱势震荡-20251019
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 12:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn markets is "cautiously bearish" [4][8] Core Viewpoints - The current supply in the domestic market is ample, and it is expected to remain in a state of loose supply in the future. The focus of the market will be on policy changes, the harvest and export of new-season US soybeans, and the import situation of new-season US soybeans will affect the market supply and demand around the Spring Festival. For the corn market, the current pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price of new grain is generally low. Future attention should be paid to national policies [3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 Market Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the bean粕 2601 contract last weekend was 2,922 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 54 yuan or 1.54%. The closing price of the rapeseed粕 2601 contract was 2,306 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 85 yuan or 3.55%. In the spot market, the prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline or stability, and the spot basis generally increased [1] Supply and Demand Data - **South America**: As of the week ending October 8, Argentine farmers sold 1.2824 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 37.5432 million tons. Brazil's soybean export volume in October is expected to be 7.31 million tons [1] - **Domestic**: From week 40 - 41 in 2025, the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills totaled about 3.4125 million tons. In week 41, the soybean inventory of national oil mills rose to 7.6576 million tons, an increase of 6.37% compared to before the holiday and 14.29% year - on - year. The bean粕 inventory was 1.0791 million tons, a decrease of 9.26% compared to the week of September 26 and an increase of 6.17% year - on - year. The total bean粕 sales volume was 896,700 tons, an increase of 54.05% compared to before the National Day holiday. The total bean粕 pick - up volume was 1.085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 211,000 tons [2] - **Rapeseed粕**: As of October 9, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous period. As of October 10, the rapeseed oil production was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period, and the rapeseed粕 production was 8,300 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous period [3] Market Analysis - Although the US Department of Agriculture has not released the latest data recently, Brazil's export situation is good, significantly higher than the historical average, which puts pressure on the CBOT US soybean price. The increase in Brazil's exports has also led to a relatively sufficient domestic supply, and it is expected that the supply will remain loose in the future [3] Corn Market Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the corn 2601 contract last week was 2,117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan or 0.38%. The closing price of the starch 2601 contract was 2,384 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46 yuan or 1.89%. In the spot market, the prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline or increase in the basis [5] Supply, Demand and Inventory Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the corn import volume was 36,000 tons, a 91.56% decrease compared to the same period last year. From January to August, the total imported corn was 885,000 tons, a 92.9% decrease compared to the same period last year. The export volume of corn starch in August was 14,803.173 tons, a 7.13% decrease from the previous month and a 7996.2% increase year - on - year [5][6] - **Demand**: Last week, 126 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1052 million tons of corn, an increase of 24,500 tons from the previous week [5] - **Inventory**: Last week, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 852,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,000 tons. The total shipment volume from the four northern ports was 581,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week. As of October 15, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.199 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous week, a 5.27% increase from the previous month, and a 46.94% increase year - on - year [5][6] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil's corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 138.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.4913 million tons year - on - year. Domestically, new - season corn in the Northeast and North China is being concentratedly supplied to the market. The quality and yield of corn in the Northeast are good, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is high, leading to a price drop. In the North China region, most of the corn is wet, with only a small amount of dried corn supplied to the market. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is stable, and feed enterprises have low inventories and increased procurement enthusiasm [6][7]
天富期货菜粕、生猪大跌
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 12:54
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Two types of rapeseed meal have tumbled, with rapeseed meal leading the decline. The price of live pigs has continued to fall, and the entire oil and fat sector has declined. Some commodities such as cotton and dates show different trends [1]. 3. Summary of Each Variety (1) Rapeseed Meal - The price of rapeseed meal has dropped significantly due to the possible improvement in China - Canada trade relations and the off - season demand. The domestic rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The main 2601 contract has fallen sharply, and the technical indicator is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 2300 and resistance at 2330 [2]. (2) Live Pigs - The main 2601 contract of live pigs has continued to fall sharply because of the increasing supply of market - suitable pigs and weak demand. The technical indicator is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 11600 and resistance at 11800 [3]. (3) Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn has rebounded but was blocked and then dropped significantly due to the supply pressure of new corn on the market. The strategy is to close long orders and try a light - position short order, with support at 2100 and resistance at 2120 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has first risen and then fallen, fluctuating downward because of the increase in production and the weakness of rapeseed oil. Although the export data is good and the production - reduction cycle is approaching, which limits the decline, the strategy is short - term trading, with support at 9270 and resistance at 9390 [7]. (5) Eggs - The main 2512 contract of eggs has continued to fall because of the large supply pressure. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 2932 and resistance at 2996 [9]. (6) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has oscillated and risen, with the trend turning stronger because of the low - price buying. The strategy is to hold a light - position long order, with support at 13290 and resistance at 13400 [12]. (7) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has limited rebound and is still in a downward trend because of the supply surplus. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order, with support at 5380 and resistance at 5420 [15]. (8) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has risen sharply and then fallen, with severe fluctuations. The market has large differences. The strategy is to close short orders and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8450 and resistance at 8800 [16][19]. (9) Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates has continued to rise after a sharp increase because of the warming demand and declining inventory. The strategy is to hold a light - position long order, with support at 11295 and resistance at 11500 [20].
光大期货:农产品日报(2025 年10 月17日)-20251017
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:35
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oils: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn futures showed a low - level stabilization after a sharp fall, with the pressure of high - yield expectations gradually released. The cold weather in the Northeast reduced the difficulty of corn storage, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. However, the spot market was still under pressure due to factors such as concentrated supply in the production area and weak demand in the sales area [1]. - CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic demand in the US, but the domestic protein meal was weakly oscillatory. The domestic spot was loose, and the sufficient supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter suppressed the market [1]. - BMD palm oil rose despite weak demand from India. Domestic vegetable oils recovered with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic [1]. - Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - Pork futures continued to be weak, and the spot price continued to decline. The current market was in a supply - demand game. If the enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased and the slaughter volume could not absorb the excess supply, the price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: This week, corn futures first fell and then rose. The spot price continued to decline, with the price in the Northeast and North China weakening. The sales area also saw a price drop. Technically, the pressure of high - yield expectations was released, and the cold weather made farmers reluctant to sell [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand. In China, the protein meal was weakly oscillatory, with a loose spot market and sufficient supply in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, and domestic vegetable oils recovered. The short - term pressure exists, but the medium - to - long - term trend is optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in international trade relations [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated and corrected. The spot price rebounded due to the boost of low - price eggs to demand, but the high inventory of laying hens and the increase in egg production rate brought supply pressure [1]. - **Pork**: This week, pork first stabilized and then fell. The spot price continued to decline, and the current market was in a supply - demand game. The price was expected to be weakly oscillatory next week [2]. Market Information - From October 1 - 15, 2025, the yield, oil extraction rate, and production of Malaysian palm oil all increased compared to the same period last month [2]. - Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel plan for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026 [2]. - From October 5 - 11, Brazil exported 1,538,934 tons of soybeans, 266,768 tons of soybean meal, and 902,772 tons of corn. From October 12 - 18, it plans to export 2,153,936 tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1,889,800 tons of corn [3]. - Recently, international and domestic palm oil prices have oscillated downward, and the import price inversion of China's near - term palm oil shipments has slightly widened [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific analysis of these bases is given [12][13][16][18][22]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading teams [26]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pork at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [26].
光大期货农产品日报-20251016
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 07:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pigs: Oscillatory [2] 2. Core Views - Corn futures showed a low - level stabilization after a sharp fall, with farmers' reluctance to sell due to cooling weather, while the spot price continued to decline due to factors like concentrated supply in the production area [1]. - Soybean meal futures were oscillatory, with the domestic market being weak due to sufficient supply in the fourth quarter, despite high - than - expected September crushing volume in the US [1]. - Oils futures were rising. Although there were short - term pressures, the medium - to - long - term trend was positive, and it was recommended to buy on dips, influenced by factors such as improved export data of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Eggs futures oscillated higher. The spot price was stable, with short - term supply pressure due to high egg - laying hen inventory [1]. - Pig futures oscillated at a low level. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price was dragged down by the spot market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The November contract of corn futures closed with a small positive line on Wednesday. The spot price continued to fall, but farmers' willingness to store increased due to cooling weather. The price in the Northeast was weak, and the North Port faced pressure. In the North China region, the price of wet corn fell more. The price in the sales area also decreased. Technically, the pressure from the expected bumper harvest was gradually released, and the futures price showed a low - level stabilization [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures closed flat to slightly higher on Wednesday. NOPA's September crushing volume reached a record high. The domestic protein meal market was weakly oscillatory, with a soft market performance due to factors like sufficient supply [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, but positive export data offset concerns. High - frequency data showed a 16.2% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from October 1 - 15. Domestic vegetable oils rebounded, following the improvement in the macro - sentiment. It was recommended to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated higher on Wednesday. The spot price was stable, with improved sales in some areas after the rainy weather ended. However, due to high egg - laying hen inventory, there was supply pressure, and it was recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures first rose and then fell on Wednesday, closing with a small negative line. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price was dragged down by the spot market. The daily slaughter volume increased, and the average weight decreased slightly [2]. Market Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% (AmSpec data) and 16.2% (ITS data) compared to the same period last month [2][3]. - India's vegetable oil imports in September slightly decreased compared to August [3]. - Trump accused China of deliberately stopping importing US soybeans, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded [3]. - Indonesia plans to increase the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to fund the transition from the B40 to B50 biodiesel program [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts for multiple agricultural products such as corn, soybean, oil, eggs, and pigs, including 1 - 5 spreads and related basis [5][6][7]
农产品日报:现货价格小幅波动,豆粕维持震荡-20251016
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 03:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal and domestic soybean meal markets are mainly oscillating due to the lack of clear data guidance caused by the US government shutdown. The domestic downstream soybean supply remains sufficient, with continuous arrivals of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Policy changes need to be closely monitored [3] - For the corn market, new - season corn in Northeast China is starting to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall corn output this year has increased, and it is expected that the purchase price will decline after the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the purchase situation [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2917 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2357 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2101 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.38%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.67%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton [4] Brazilian Soybean Data - The Brazilian National Supply Company predicts that in the 2025/26 season, the soybean planting area will be 49.074 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the yield per hectare will be 3.62 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the output will be 177.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export volume will be 112 million tons, higher than the previous year's 107 million tons [2] - From October 1 - 10, 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume was 2.166 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 271,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%. In contrast, the total export volume in October 2024 was 4.71 million tons [2] US Corn Export Data - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.129708 million tons, lower than the market - expected range, a week - on - week decrease of 34% but a year - on - year increase of 120% [4] 2. Market Analysis Soybean Meal Market - Due to the US government shutdown, there is a lack of clear data guidance, and the market is mainly oscillating. The domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrivals of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Policy changes need to be closely monitored [3] Corn Market - New - season corn in Northeast China is starting to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall corn output this year has increased, and it is expected that the purchase price will decline after the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the purchase situation [5]
农产品日报:苹果价格两极分化,红枣销区到货锐减-20251016
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 02:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [3] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm, with a significant price polarization. The trading of new - season late Fuji apples is affected by weather, and the acquisition and storage time within the year is compressed. The demand after the double festivals has not improved significantly [2][3] - Red dates: If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price will be in a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support. The current quality of jujubes is better than that of the same period last year, and the new - season yield is estimated to be between 560,000 and 620,000 tons [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,665 yuan/ton, a change of +1 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.01% [1] - Spot: The price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 3.85 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 965, a change of - 1 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The price of late Fuji apples in the western regions such as Gansu and Shaanxi is stable, with obvious characteristics of high - quality fruits commanding high prices. The supply of red apples in Shandong is still scarce. The overall trading is light due to weather constraints. The price of high - quality apples is stable and slightly strong, while the price of general - quality apples is difficult to strengthen [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral - to - bullish stance, focusing on the game between merchants' acquisition mentality and farmers' selling mentality [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 11,105 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.05% [4] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 1,605, a change of +5 from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The futures price of red dates fluctuated slightly. The supply of red dates in the Hebei sales area is scarce, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The inventory pressure remains, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The quality of jujubes is better than that of the same period last year [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance, paying attention to consumption, new - season quality, and yield changes [8]
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨,玉米期货涨1.03%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-15 22:01
Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a majority of agricultural futures close higher on October 15, with soybean and corn futures increasing, while wheat futures experienced a slight decline [1] Group 1: Agricultural Futures Performance - Soybean futures rose by 0.05%, closing at 1007.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 1.03%, closing at 417.25 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures fell by 0.30%, closing at 498.75 cents per bushel [1]
玉米淀粉日报-20251015
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 09:54
Report Overview - The report is a daily report on corn and corn starch on October 15, 2025, covering data, market analysis, trading strategies, option strategies, and related charts [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The U.S. corn report has lowered the yield per unit, but the production remains high, and the U.S. corn price has declined. It may continue to fall. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the domestic corn spot price is relatively stable in the short - term. The new - season corn has been listed in large quantities, and the spot price in the Northeast has declined. It is expected that there will be selling pressure on Jilin corn at the end of October. The corn starch price is mainly affected by the corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has increased this week, and the short - term 01 contract of the corn starch futures is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Corn Futures**: Contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509 all rose, with C2601 closing at 2127, up 16 (0.75%); C2605 at 2218, up 16 (0.72%); C2509 at 2247, up 12 (0.53%). The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the open interest of some contracts increased [3] - **Corn Starch Futures**: Contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 also rose, with CS2601 closing at 2418, up 17 (0.70%); CS2605 at 2529, up 12 (0.47%); CS2509 at 2571, up 1 (0.04%). The trading volume and open interest of most contracts increased [3] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - **Corn Spot**: Prices in various regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, and others showed different trends. The basis varied from - 297 in Qinggang to 63 in Guangdong Port [3] - **Corn Starch Spot**: Prices in different factories like Longfeng, COFCO, etc., remained stable, and the basis was positive in all regions, ranging from 121 to 391 [3] 3.1.3 Spread - **Corn Inter - delivery Spread**: For example, C01 - C05 was - 91, unchanged; C05 - C09 was - 29, up 4; C09 - C01 was 120, down 4 [3] - **Corn Starch Inter - delivery Spread**: CS01 - CS05 was - 111, up 5; CS05 - CS09 was - 42, up 11; CS09 - CS01 was 153, down 16 [3] - **Cross - variety Spread**: CS09 - C09 was 324, down 11; CS01 - C01 was 291, up 1; CS05 - C05 was 311, down 4 [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Corn - The U.S. corn yield per unit may be further lowered, and the price will fluctuate narrowly. China has imposed tariffs on U.S. corn and sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The spot price in the northern ports and the Northeast has declined, and the supply in North China has increased. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the substitution relationship between wheat and corn still exists. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is low. The new - season corn has been listed in large quantities, and it is expected that there will be selling pressure on Jilin corn at the end of October [5][6] 3.2.2 Corn Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The corn starch inventory has increased this week, reaching 1199,000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 5.27% and a year - on - year increase of 46.9%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the enterprise is profitable. It is expected that the spot price of corn starch will decline later, and the 01 contract of the futures will fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: It is recommended to lightly go long on the 01 or 05 corn contracts with a stop - loss set. The U.S. corn has support at 400 cents per bushel [9] - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [10] 3.4 Option Strategies - A short - term strategy of accumulating put and call options with rolling operations is recommended [11] 3.5 Related Charts - The report includes six charts showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between the corn starch and corn 01 contracts [15][17][20]
《农产品》日报-20251015
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 02:51
1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are consolidating, testing the 4450 ringgit support. If it holds, there's a chance of recovery. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to weaken in the short - term and then potentially rebound after reaching around 9200 yuan. US soybean supply and export issues are dragging down CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil supply is ample, with high inventory and expected large imports in the coming months [1]. Meal - Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. US soybean fundamentals are weak, while Brazilian new - crop soybean planting is progressing well, suppressing US soybean prices. In Q4 2025, domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 2026, supporting the M2601 contract. Spot prices are expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread opportunity [4]. Corn - In the northeast, supply is abundant, and farmers are eager to sell due to a good harvest, leading to price drops. In the north, poor grain quality and high vehicle arrivals are pressuring prices. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is lackluster, but there may be seasonal restocking needs. Currently, corn is in a weak position due to strong supply and weak demand [6]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the central - southern region in the first half of September met expectations. Supply pressure is keeping the raw sugar price bearish. In China, typhoons affected sugarcane growth, and downstream demand has slightly recovered. Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [11]. Cotton - New cotton has a relatively low cost, and cotton enterprises may gradually hedge on the futures market. The cost provides some support to the futures price. Downstream demand is weak, but spinning mills' cotton inventory is low, and their profit and cash - flow have improved. Medium - term cotton prices are likely to face downward pressure when prices are high [12]. Eggs - Egg prices are falling, and farmers are in the loss stage, increasing the slaughter of laying hens. There are signs of molting in some areas. Supply of large - and small - sized eggs may decrease slightly, but overall supply is still abundant due to high inventory. Demand from food enterprises and households is weak after the festival. Egg prices are expected to decline this week with no obvious positive factors [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On October 14, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8550 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) dropped to 8268 yuan (- 0.34%), the basis (Y2601) increased by 9.93%, and the warehouse receipt remained at 25444 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong decreased to 9260 yuan (- 0.22%), the futures price (P2601) dropped to 9330 yuan (- 0.36%), the basis (P2601) increased by 51.92%, and the import profit in Guangzhou Port for January decreased by 16.48% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased to 10150 yuan (- 0.30%), the futures price (OI601) dropped to 9959 yuan (- 0.63%), and the basis (OI601) increased by 72.66% [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained at 2930 yuan, the futures price (M2601) dropped to 2902 yuan (- 1.02%), the basis (M2601) increased by 1500%, and the import crushing profit for Argentina's December shipment improved by 6.3% [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased to 2430 yuan (- 1.22%), the futures price (RM2601) dropped to 2348 yuan (- 1.84%), and the basis (RM2601) increased by 20.59% [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2511 increased slightly to 2093 yuan (0.05%), the Jinzhou Port FOB price decreased to 2130 yuan (- 0.93%), the basis decreased by 36.21%, and the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 42.42% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased to 2385 yuan (- 0.67%), the basis increased by 14.68%, and the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 146.67% [6]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 dropped to 5397 yuan (- 1.33%), the ICE raw sugar main contract increased to 15.87 cents/pound (1.93%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased to 27 yuan (- 15.63%), and the main contract's open interest decreased by 8.24% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased to 5810 yuan (0.17%), in Kunming decreased to 5780 yuan (- 0.52%), the basis in Nanning County increased by 21.55%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 10.22% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2605 decreased to 13320 yuan (- 0.30%), cotton 2601 decreased to 13265 yuan (- 0.26%), the ICE US cotton main contract decreased to 63.43 cents/pound (- 0.17%), and the 5 - 1 spread decreased to 55 yuan (- 8.33%) [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased to 14598 yuan (- 0.30%), the CC Index of 3128B decreased to 14755 yuan (- 0.23%), and the FC Index of M: 1% decreased to 12816 yuan (- 0.13%) [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 - contract increased to 2852 yuan/500KG (1.57%), the 01 - contract increased to 3237 yuan/500KG (0.81%), and the 11 - 01 spread increased to - 385 yuan (- 4.47%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased slightly to 2.82 yuan/jin (0.12%), the egg - chick price remained at 2.60 yuan/feather, the culled - hen price decreased to 4.46 yuan/jin (- 3.88%), and the egg - feed ratio decreased to 2.51 (- 11.31%) [15].
农产品日报-20251014
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 06:27
Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - Corn is predicted to have a weak and fluctuating trend. On Monday, the November contract of corn declined under pressure, breaking through the 2,200 yuan integer mark. The spot price of corn continued to fall, with the average domestic corn price at 2,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The new corn supply increase is negatively affecting the market [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate within a range. On Monday, CBOT soybeans stabilized. In China, protein meal fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume increased. In September, the domestic soybean arrival volume was 12.87 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.8%. The domestic soybean meal spot market is very loose, and the oil - mill inventory is at a high level. The post - holiday restocking demand has been released, but the demand sustainability is poor [1]. - The long - term outlook for oils is positive, with a strategy of buying on dips. On Monday, BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day. An institution predicts that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia will rise by 3% to 2.4 million tons in October. In China, the three major vegetable oils declined collectively, with rapeseed oil leading the decline and palm oil following. The international crude oil slump triggered the decline in oil prices. The market rumor that an oil - mill obtained the import qualification for Australian rapeseed caused the largest decline in rapeseed oil. The inventory of oils decreased last week, reducing the oil - mill inventory pressure [1]. - Eggs are expected to have a weak and fluctuating trend. On Monday, the main contract of egg futures opened lower, fluctuated slightly upwards, and closed up 0.07% at 2,808 yuan/500 kilograms. The spot price of eggs continued to be weak. The egg supply is sufficient, the terminal digestion is poor, and the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level. The egg - laying rate is expected to rise after the temperature drops in the north, increasing the supply pressure [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to fluctuate. On Monday, the pig futures price fluctuated at a low level. In the spot market, the pig price continued to fall. The current national average ex - factory price of三元 pigs is 10.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg compared to the previous day. The daily slaughter volume and the daily sales volume of pigs increased slightly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The November contract of corn declined under pressure on Monday, with the spot price falling. The northeast corn price is weak, the north port has more arrivals and general shipments, and the north China price continues to decline. The new corn supply increase is the main negative factor [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans stabilized on Monday. In China, the protein meal fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume increased. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September was high, the spot market was loose, and the oil - mill inventory was high. The post - holiday restocking demand was released, but the demand sustainability was poor [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day. An institution predicts a rise in Malaysian palm oil inventory in October. In China, the three major vegetable oils declined, with rapeseed oil leading the decline. The international crude oil slump and the rumor of Australian rapeseed import qualification affected the prices. The oil inventory decreased last week [1]. - **Eggs**: The main contract of egg futures opened lower and closed slightly up on Monday. The spot price of eggs continued to be weak, with sufficient supply, poor terminal digestion, and high egg - laying hen inventory [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price fluctuated at a low level on Monday, and the spot price continued to fall. The daily slaughter volume and the daily sales volume of pigs increased slightly, and the average weight of pigs decreased slightly [2]. Market Information - The US claims to impose a 100% tariff on China, and China firmly opposes it [3]. - As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.2651 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,400 tons or 1.31%. The national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 547,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,600 tons [3]. - As of October 10, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil - mills was 18,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 41,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [3]. - From October 1 - 10, 2025, the daily yield, oil extraction rate, and output of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month [3]. - In Henan, there will be a short rain - free period next week, followed by intermittent precipitation. The new soybeans will be concentrated on the market. It is expected that the price of new soybeans in Henan will first fall and then stabilize in mid - to late October, with the common commodity price ranging from 5,000 - 5,300 yuan/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides various contract spreads and contract basis charts including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific spread or basis data is described in text [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][23] Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural products research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Products Analyst" title multiple times and has rich experience and achievements [27]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Products Analyst" title multiple times and has published many articles in industry journals [27]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher for eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is a guest analyst on First Financial Channel and has participated in many media interviews [27].