交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-25） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，全球铁矿石发运总量 3278.4 万吨， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 环比减少 238.0 万吨。47 港外矿到港量大幅回升 569.6 万吨至 2939.5 万吨。日均铁水产量环比回落 0.6 万吨至 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | | | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水 | | | | | 平，内需疲弱难改。港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 | | | | | 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润 | | | | | 再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的 | | | | | 利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 率不大，铁矿价格高位偏强震荡为主。 | | ...

Company Overview - Daodaoquan Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. is located in Changsha, Hunan Province, and was established on July 28, 1999. The company was listed on March 10, 2017. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of edible vegetable oil products [1]. - The revenue composition of Daodaoquan includes: packaged oil 62.71%, meal products 22.45%, bulk oil 13.67%, and others 1.17% [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Daodaoquan achieved operating revenue of 4.397 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.62%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 216 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 93.69% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Daodaoquan has distributed a total of 485 million yuan in dividends, with 234 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - As of November 21, Daodaoquan's stock price decreased by 2.08%, trading at 10.35 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.56 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 30.09%, but it has seen declines of 5.39% over the last five trading days, 7.34% over the last 20 days, and 11.19% over the last 60 days [1]. - The number of shareholders as of November 10 was 23,800, an increase of 1.80% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 1.77% to 11,990 shares [2]. Capital Flow - In terms of capital flow, there was a net outflow of 2.6036 million yuan from main funds, with large orders buying 1.4649 million yuan (5.59% of total) and selling 4.0685 million yuan (15.53% of total) [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom Oscillation [5] - Pulp: Oscillation [5] - Offset Paper: Oscillation [5] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound Movement [5] - Palm Oil: Range - bound Movement [5] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound Movement [5] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating Weakly [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating Weakly [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating Weakly [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating Weakly [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating Strongly [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range Oscillation [10] - PR: On - hold [10] - PF: On - hold [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different products having various price trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external policy and geopolitical influences. For example, in the iron ore market, the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices are mainly oscillating; in the financial market, the short - term market is consolidating, but the medium - term trend is still upward [2][4]. Summaries by Categories Ferrous Metals Industry - Iron Ore: Overseas iron ore shipments increased significantly, but domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Iron ore demand marginally recovered, but the supply - demand surplus pattern was hard to change, and steel mill profits were squeezed again. The probability of short - term negative feedback was low, and iron ore prices mainly oscillated [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the heating - season supply - guarantee meeting, the upward driving force for coking coal and coke weakened. Coking plants faced high costs and low profitability, and the fourth round of coke price increases was still under negotiation. The market's divergence on the expected supply contraction of coking coal at the end of the year increased, and prices were in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Downstream demand was low, and the upside was suppressed. The key factor was steel demand, and domestic demand was hard to improve. Steel prices would stop falling if production reduction of over 5% was strictly implemented in Q4 2025 and anti - "involution" policies were effectively implemented. Currently, steel prices were expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - Glass: Spot prices were relatively weak, and some manufacturers started to cut prices. With the fermentation of the news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, the market had already priced in the positive factors. Real - world demand was weak due to the decline in real - estate completion, and enterprise inventories continued to increase. Attention was paid to production line cold - repair and policies [2]. - Soda Ash: The report did not provide detailed information on soda ash other than the investment rating of "oscillation" [2]. Financial Market - Stock Index Futures/Options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The short - term market was in consolidation, and the medium - term trend was upward. It was recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yields of ten - year Treasury bonds were flat, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net injection of funds. Treasury bond spot - market interest rates were consolidating, and the market trend was slightly rebounding. It was recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold and Silver: In the context of high - interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold was changing. Central - bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks were the main driving factors. The logic of the current gold - price increase had not completely reversed, and short - term factors included the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. The short - term market mainly traded on monetary - policy expectations [4]. Wood and Pulp - Logs: Log port shipments decreased, and downstream demand was in the off - season. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was hard to increase. The cost support weakened, and the inventory pressure was large. The spot - market prices were weak, and the ex - works prices were expected to bottom - oscillate [5]. - Pulp: The previous trading day's spot - market prices were differentiated. The cost support for pulp prices weakened, the paper - industry profitability was low, and the demand was poor. Pulp prices were expected to oscillate [5]. - Offset Paper: The previous trading day's spot - market prices were stable. The supply was stable, and the market expectation was cautious. The price was expected to oscillate [5]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: US soybean crushing reached a record high, and Malaysian palm - oil production was higher than expected. The supply of domestic oils was abundant, while the demand was weak. With the cost support of soybeans for soybean oil, the overall oils were expected to continue range - bound movement [5]. - Meal: The US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks were adjusted down, but the global soybean supply was still relatively loose. The domestic soybean - meal supply was abundant, and the demand was supported by high - level livestock inventories, but the high price of soybean meal suppressed restocking intentions. Soybean meal was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [5][8]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs fluctuated slightly. The demand for pork had recovered, and the slaughter - enterprise operating rate had increased slightly. With the temperature dropping, the terminal consumption was expected to further release, and the average price of live pigs was expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The raw - material supply in different regions was affected by weather conditions. The inventory was at a low level, and the demand from tire - manufacturing enterprises had recovered. The natural - rubber inventory was in the seasonal accumulation period, and the price was expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: PX prices were driven up by factors such as the oil - price increase and market - sentiment changes, but were expected to oscillate considering the supply and demand situation. PTA prices were expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations. MEG had long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and its price was expected to adjust widely in the short term. PR and PF markets were expected to be weak or have narrow - range adjustments due to weak demand and limited cost support [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The A-share market showed a general upward trend on Thursday, with cyclical sectors performing actively and some high-dividend sectors slightly correcting. The bond market was affected by the strong performance of the risk market, and the precious metal market experienced a decline after an initial rise. The shipping index fluctuated, and various commodity futures markets had different trends [2][5][7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For stock index futures, it is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach. For bond futures, it is advisable to wait for the release of economic data and consider going long on dips. For precious metals, it is recommended to buy on dips. For various commodity futures, different trading strategies are proposed according to their respective market conditions [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market rose across the board on Thursday, with major indices closing in the green. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest rate bonds mostly rose. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between multiple and short factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees and the fermentation of broad monetary policy expectations. It is recommended to go long on dips [5][6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US government ended its shutdown, and Fed officials were cautious about a December rate cut, causing precious metals to rise initially and then fall. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **EC**: The spot price is cold, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1650 - 1850 points. It is recommended to conduct band operations [11][12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The liquidity risk has eased, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's rate cut rhythm and Sino-US tariff situation [12][13][15]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction trend of high-cost enterprises [15][16][17]. - **Aluminum**: The market shows a strong macro-drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to short on rallies [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [21][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the improvement of demand and the change of inventory [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: The supply side remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [27][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The market is in a state of more short-term and long-term factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of weak macro-drive and strong fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro expectations and steel mill supply [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of strong supply and demand expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories and the marginal change of demand [37][40][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a state of high price and weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the establishment of platform companies and the change of demand [41][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is in a state of supply pressure and cost support, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][46]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The overall demand for five major steel products declined, and steel mills reduced production. The inventory continued to be destocked. It is recommended to short on rallies and hold the long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market fluctuated. The global shipment volume decreased, the port arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see on a single side and partially take profit on the long coking coal and short iron ore arbitrage [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market showed a low-level volatile trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is recommended to view it as a volatile market and conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [52][55]. - **Coke**: The coke market showed a low-level volatile trend. The fourth round of price increases was partially implemented, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to view it as a volatile market and conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [56][58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal spot market price was stable with an upward adjustment, and the rapeseed meal market price decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the repair of crushing margins and the adjustment of the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report [59].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - A-shares showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend, with sector rotation continuing. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - The pressure on funds has marginally eased, and the bond futures market showed an oscillating trend. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - The deterioration of US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market [8][9]. - The container shipping index showed a downward trend in the futures market. The spot market is still cold, and the upward trend of the main contract is difficult to sustain. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [11][12]. - Various metals in the non-ferrous metal sector showed different trends. For example, copper prices rebounded due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the release of liquidity risks; aluminum prices will fluctuate between event-driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [12][21]. - In the black metal sector, the inventories of iron and carbon elements are differentiated. The long coal and short hot-rolled coil strategy can continue to be held. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke all showed a downward trend [46][54][57]. - In the agricultural product sector, the export of US soybeans is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the USDA report on Friday [61]. Summaries According to the Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A-shares opened higher in the morning and then oscillated weakly during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also declined. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to mainly observe. If there is a significant decline in a single day, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures contracts closed flat, and the yields of most major interest rate bonds in the inter-bank market declined. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 403.8 billion yuan, with a net investment of 286.3 billion yuan. The market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to go long on dips in a single - sided strategy. For the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US government's "re - opening" process is progressing steadily, and the recent US employment situation has continued to deteriorate, which has supported the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December. Precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. The international gold price closed at $4,125.67 per ounce, up 0.24%, and the international silver price closed at $51.187 per ounce, up 1.37% [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: The US economy and employment market are still affected by the government "shutdown" and trade frictions. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December is increasing. Precious metals are expected to enter a bull market in the medium and long term. It is recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports showed different ranges. As of November 10, the SCFIS European line index rose 24.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index rose 4.94% month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 10, the global container total capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate within the range of 1,750 - 1,950 points. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased compared with the previous working day, and the market procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Macro**: The expected end of the US government shutdown is expected to release liquidity, which is beneficial to copper prices [12]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM Chinese electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the maintenance of 8 smelters. It is expected that the output in November will decrease slightly [13][14]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of electrolytic copper rods and recycled copper rods increased. The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience, and there are still many purchase orders after the price decline [14]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM Shandong aluminum oxide increased, while the prices in other regions were flat. The short - term supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is loose [16]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the market shipment was active at high prices, but the actual transaction was less [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [19]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the short term [21]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream demand was weak, with only a small amount of rigid demand replenishment [24]. - **Supply**: The supply of the zinc industry chain is gradually loosening, and the TC has turned from rising to falling. It is expected that the supply pressure will be limited in the future [25]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three primary processing industries of zinc showed a weak trend, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations. The export window of refined zinc is open, which may boost domestic zinc prices [26]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was relatively cold [28]. - **Supply**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of smelters remains at a low level. It is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply this year is limited [31]. - **Demand**: The demand is still weak, and the order volume of the solder industry has decreased significantly. Although some tin consumption has been driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption [31]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold long positions and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly [31]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is still at a high level, but it is expected to decrease month - on - month [32]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel is general. The demand for ternary materials has improved in the short term, but there is new production capacity in the medium term [32]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 11, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled steel decreased, and the raw material cost support declined [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel production increased month - on - month. It is expected that the production will decrease in November. The production of the 300 - series still remains at a high level [36]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [37]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 11, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the spot trading was still light [38]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production last week increased slightly, mainly driven by lithium spodumene and mica [39]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the performance near the previous high pressure level. The short - term view is wide - range oscillating adjustment [41]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 12, the prices of polysilicon remained unchanged. The demand is expected to decline, and the silicon wafer price has decreased [42]. - **Supply**: In November, the production of polysilicon is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons [42]. - **Demand**: The demand at all levels is expected to decline, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 12, the prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [46]. - **Supply**: In October, the production of industrial silicon increased, and it is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons in November [46]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the decrease in polysilicon production [46]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of the November contract [47]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot prices of steel remained stable, and the basis weakened [47]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements has weak support, while the cost of carbon elements has support. The current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [48]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to September. Recently, the molten iron output has declined, and the production of five major steel products has also decreased [48]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The current apparent demand has declined [48]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold the long coal and short hot - rolled coil strategy. Observe unilaterally and pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil [50]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 11, the price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [51]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures prices declined, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [52]. - **Demand**: The daily molten iron output decreased, and the demand for iron ore decreased [53]. - **Supply**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week [53]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Observe unilaterally. Arrange the long coking coal and short iron ore strategy [54]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures prices declined, while the domestic coking coal spot market continued to be strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to decline [55]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production of raw coal and clean coal decreased [55][56]. - **Demand**: The iron water output declined significantly, and the coking plant's start - up decreased slightly. The steel mill's replenishment demand weakened [56]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the coking coal 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,170 - 1,290 yuan/ton [57]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures prices declined, and the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the fourth round of price increases, but it has not been implemented yet [58][60]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased, and the coking plant's start - up decreased [58]. - **Demand**: The iron water output declined significantly, and the steel mill's profit decreased, which suppressed the price increase of coke [59]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the coke 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,650 - 1,780 yuan/ton [60]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On November 11, the domestic soybean meal spot prices showed mixed trends, and the rapeseed meal prices decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton [61]. - **Fundamental News**: The US soybean export inspection volume last week was 1,088,577 tons, and the soybean harvest rate was 96% [61]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the USDA report on Friday as the US soybean export is still uncertain [61].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping index futures, and multiple metal and agricultural product futures. It provides market conditions, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market condition: A-shares showed resilience, with major indices rebounding after an early decline. Most major contracts of the four stock index futures closed higher, and the basis discount of the main contracts widened. Power resource-related industries performed well, while technology sectors corrected [2][3]. - News: The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Overseas, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated potential interest rate hikes [3][4]. - Capital: On November 5, the trading volume in the A-share market decreased slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: With unclear market directions and cold trading sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Most Treasury bond futures closed lower, with minor changes in the yields of major interest rate bonds in the interbank market [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank liquidity was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate remained stable [5][6]. - Operation suggestion: The upward trend of Treasury bond futures driven by the central bank's bond purchases has paused. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 10-year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB and consider positive arbitrage strategies [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large-scale tariffs. US employment data improved slightly, and the government shutdown affected market liquidity [7][8]. - Market situation: Precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. Gold closed at $3,978.75 per ounce, up 1.21%, and silver closed above $48 per ounce, up 1.79% [9]. - Outlook: In the medium to long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but there may be a 2 - 3 month consolidation period after reaching new highs. Short-term gold is expected to trade between $3,900 - $4,030, and silver between $47 - $49 [9][10]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Route) - Spot price: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes varied among different shipping companies [11]. - Shipping index: As of November 3, the SCFIS European route index decreased, while the US West route index increased. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index increased [11]. - Fundamentals: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased year-on-year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated upward, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,800 - 2,000 points [12]. - Operation suggestion: Buy on dips for the December contract in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the premium/discount showed mixed changes. Market sentiment was still cautious [12]. - Macro: The US dollar index strengthened, suppressing copper prices. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was under review [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate remained low. In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand for copper showed strong resilience, with more purchase orders released after price corrections [14]. - Inventory: LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories of copper increased [15]. - Logic: The short - term rise in copper prices may suppress demand, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the support at 84,000 and the resistance at 86,500 [16]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: On November 5, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions showed mixed trends, with a generally loose supply pattern and a weakening price [16]. - Supply: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation in November [17]. - Inventory: In October, the inventories of aluminum oxide at ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants increased [17]. - Logic: The price of aluminum oxide is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18][19]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 5, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium/discount also declined, with limited actual transactions [20]. - Supply: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and the operating capacity remained stable. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November [20]. - Demand: In the traditional peak season, the weekly operating rates of downstream aluminum processing products declined [20]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of aluminum ingots increased, while LME inventories decreased [21]. - Logic: The short - term price of aluminum will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals. Pay attention to the resistance at 21,500 yuan/ton [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 5, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased, with weak spot trading [23]. - Supply: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate rose. It is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in October [23]. - Demand: In October, demand showed a mild recovery, but the transmission of terminal demand was not smooth, and high prices suppressed purchasing willingness [24]. - Inventory: In October, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [24]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 is expected to remain strongly volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Consider arbitrage strategies [26]. Zinc - Spot: On November 5, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [26]. - Supply: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the processing fees will continue to decline in November [27]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary zinc processing industries were generally stable, and overall demand showed no significant improvement [28]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of zinc decreased, while LME inventories remained stable [28]. - Logic: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the fundamentals may limit further upward movement. It may continue to trade within a range [29]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [29]. Tin - Spot: On November 5, the price of tin decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The market transaction improved slightly [29]. - Supply: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased, and tin ingot imports also declined. The supply from Myanmar showed signs of improvement [30]. - Demand: The demand for tin remained weak, with a decline in orders in the solder industry. Although some new fields drove tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the shortfall [31][32]. - Inventory: LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [31]. - Logic: Considering the strong fundamentals, it is recommended to hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips. Pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar [32]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import price also declined [32]. - Supply: In the capacity expansion cycle, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly in October but remained at a high level [33]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries was stable, while the demand from stainless steel was average. The demand for nickel sulfate showed signs of improvement in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term [33]. - Inventory: LME inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [33]. - Logic: The nickel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and Indonesian policies [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, and the basis increased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore remained firm, while the price of nickel iron decreased. The chromium iron market was weak, and the cost support declined [36]. - Supply: In September and October, the production of stainless steel increased. The production of the 300 - series remained at a high level [37]. - Inventory: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts declined [37]. - Logic: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and steel mill supply [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was weak [39]. - Supply: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased. Recently, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene decreased slightly, while that from mica remained stable [40][42]. - Demand: The overall demand was optimistic, with an increase in production schedules in the iron - lithium and ternary sectors. Pay attention to the demand after November [40][42]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with a reduction in smelter and downstream inventories [41]. - Logic: The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has shifted. The price is expected to fluctuate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel was weak, and the basis strengthened [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. Profits from high to low were billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - Supply: From January to September, the production of iron elements increased. In October, the growth rate slowed down, and the output of the five major steel products increased slightly [43]. - Demand: Domestic demand expectations were weak, while exports remained high. The apparent demand for steel increased [44]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [44]. - Viewpoint: The 1 - month contract has a loose supply of iron elements. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [46]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly, while the far - month contract decreased. The 1 - 5 spread widened [47]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was positive [48]. - Demand: The daily consumption of imported iron ore decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined [49]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments decreased, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly [50]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, the daily port clearance volume increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [51]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [52]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coking coal futures rebounded, and the prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal were strong [53]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [54]. - Demand: The production of coke increased slightly, while the iron - making output decreased significantly. The demand for coking coal from steel mills weakened [55]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, with inventory reductions in mines, ports, and washing plants, and inventory increases in coking plants and steel mills [55]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [55]. Coke - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coke futures rebounded, and the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented [56]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative, but the loss narrowed after the price increase [56]. - Supply: The price of coking coal increased, providing cost support for coke. The production of coke increased slightly [57]. - Demand: Due to environmental restrictions, the iron - making output decreased, and the demand for coke from steel mills was suppressed [57]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coke increased slightly, with inventory increases in coking plants and ports and inventory decreases in steel mills [57]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: On November 5, the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [59]. - Fundamentals: The State Council adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Bangladesh agreed to purchase US soybeans, and the estimated soybean yield in the US was adjusted [59][60]. - Market outlook: The adjustment of tariffs on US imports boosted the prices of US soybeans and domestic futures. The cost support for domestic soybean meal has increased [60][61]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price of live pigs was weak, with a decline in prices in various regions [62]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [62]. - Market outlook: The market supply is loose, and the pig price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and operate with caution [63]. Corn - Spot price: On November 5, the prices of corn in Northeast China and North China showed different trends, with light market transactions [64]. - Fundamentals: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port decreased slightly, while the corn inventory increased [64]. - Market outlook: The supply pressure remains, and the upward movement of the corn price is limited [64].

Investment Rating The provided documents do not contain information about the industry investment rating. Core Views - The A - share market showed a downward adjustment, with high - dividend sectors performing strongly and technology - related industries experiencing pullbacks. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - The central bank's bond - buying scale was lower than expected, and Treasury bond futures are likely to be volatile in the short term. It is advisable to go long on Treasury bonds on dips and consider positive arbitrage strategies [5][6]. - Due to tightened liquidity and a stronger US dollar, precious metals prices dropped. In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but in the short term, they will fluctuate widely [7][8][9]. - The container shipping index (European route) is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [11][12]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices are affected by a strong US dollar and are expected to be weak in the short term but supported in the medium - to - long - term by supply - demand contradictions; alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile; aluminum prices will fluctuate widely; zinc prices will be volatile and slightly strong in the short term; tin prices will maintain a high - level shock; nickel prices will fluctuate within a range; stainless steel prices will be weakly volatile; and lithium carbonate prices will be weakly adjusted [12][17][20][25][28][32][35][38]. - For black metals, steel prices are expected to test support levels, and the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils can be continued; iron ore prices are under pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be bullish in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to go long on dips [41][44][47][51]. - For agricultural products, meal prices are undergoing high - level adjustments; pig prices are weakly volatile; corn prices are in a low - level shock; and sugar prices are in a bottom - level shock [54][57][59][62]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the A - share market opened lower and weakened. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined. High - dividend sectors were strong, while technology - related industries pulled back. It is recommended to wait and see as the market direction is unclear [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly closed down. The central bank's bond - buying scale in October was lower than expected, and the bond market may enter a waiting stage. It is advisable to go long on Treasury bonds on dips and consider positive arbitrage strategies [5][6]. Precious Metals - The US government shutdown and potential changes in tariffs have tightened market liquidity, causing the US dollar to strengthen and precious metals prices to drop. In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but in the short term, they will fluctuate widely. Gold and silver prices both declined, with gold closing at $3931 per ounce, down 1.72%, and silver at $47.13 per ounce, down 1.89% [7][8][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The spot quotes of container shipping vary among different shipping companies. The SCFIS and SCFI indices show different trends. The global container shipping capacity has increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US shows different performances. The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 2000 points, and it is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The strong US dollar suppresses copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the production of refined copper may decline slightly in November. The demand for copper has strong resilience. Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short term but supported in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract is expected to find support at 84000 and face resistance at 86500 [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market continues to test the support level of 2750. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose strongly recently but then pulled back. The supply may be affected by environmental protection in winter, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot trading of aluminum alloy is cold at high prices, and the supply of raw materials is tight. The demand shows a mild recovery. The price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a high - level shock. The supply is expected to increase with limited amplitude, and the demand is average. The LME has a risk of short - squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots may open intermittently. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 22300 - 23000 [25][27][28]. - **Tin**: The tin price maintains a high - level shock. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows a structural differentiation. The price is expected to be adjusted on dips, and it is recommended to go long on dips [28][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price shows a downward trend. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable in some sectors but weak in others. The inventory is high overseas and slightly decreasing in China. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price is weakly volatile. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [35][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is weakly adjusted. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is more optimistic than expected. The trading logic has switched, and the price is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract ranging from 76000 - 82000 [38][39][40]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to test support levels. The supply of iron elements is loose, and the profit of steel has declined. The inventory of steel is decreasing, but the winter storage pressure of plates is high. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price has fallen back. The supply shows a pattern of decreased shipping and increased arrival, and the demand has weakened. The inventory has increased. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract on rallies and conduct positive arbitrage between the 1 - 5 contracts [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price is volatile. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has weakened. The inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48][50]. - **Coke**: The coke price is volatile. The third - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and the cost is supported by coking coal. The demand has weakened, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meals**: The meal price is undergoing high - level adjustments. The domestic soybean meal price has been lowered, and the market is waiting for further details of Sino - US trade. The supply of soybeans and soybean meal in China is high, but the cost support is strong [54][55][56]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is weakly volatile. The market supply is loose, and the secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined. The overall planned slaughter volume in November will slow down, which may boost the pig price to some extent [57][58]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a low - level shock. The supply pressure exists, and the selling pressure has not been realized. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. In the long - term, the corn market will be in a tight - balance pattern [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is in a bottom - level shock. The international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is under pressure but relatively resistant to decline. The spot market trading is not active [62].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Adjustment; Coal and Coke - Rebound; Rolled Steel and Rebar - Oscillation; Glass - Oscillation; Soda Ash - Weak [2] - **Financial Industry**: CSI 500 - Rebound; CSI 1000 - Rebound; 2 - year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury Bond - Upward; Gold - High - level Oscillation; Silver - High - level Oscillation [3] - **Light Industry**: Log - Weak Oscillation; Pulp - Bottom Consolidation; Double - offset Paper - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Range Movement; Meal - Rebound; Soybean No.2 - Rebound; Soybean No.1 - Rebound; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a Bullish Bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - See; PTA - Oscillation; MEG - Wait - and - See; PR - Wait - and - See; PF - Wait - and - See [9] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: After the macro - positive factors are realized, the black prices return to the fundamentals. The iron ore market is in a pattern of loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The coal and coke market is affected by multiple news, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit of steel mills. The steel and glass markets are mainly in oscillation due to supply - demand contradictions [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The central and western regions of China have achieved new highs in foreign trade. The stock index market is expected to rise in the medium - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The bond market shows a small - scale rebound, and it is advisable to hold long positions lightly. The gold price is affected by various factors and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3]. - **Light Industry**: The log market is under supply pressure and weak demand, with prices expected to be weakly oscillating. The pulp market is expected to bottom - consolidate. The edible oil market has sufficient supply and weak demand, continuing range movement. The meal market is expected to rebound in the short - term. The live pig market is expected to rise slightly in the coming week [5][6][7]. - **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry**: The natural rubber market has a decreasing inventory, and prices may oscillate widely. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different supply - demand situations, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations or are in a wait - and - see state [9]. 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year - high, with a month - on - month increase of 12.298 million tons (59%). The iron - water output has declined, and the demand in the real estate industry is weak. The port inventory has increased, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. Follow four main lines for price re - pricing [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Multiple news has pushed up the prices. The core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. If the finished steel weakens, the scope of steel mill maintenance may expand, which will suppress the raw material prices. Coke has started the third round of price increases, and the short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: After the macro - positive factors are realized, the prices return to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar is low, and the demand is weak. The steel price may stop falling if the output reduction in Q4 2025 exceeds 5% and the anti - "involution" policy is implemented effectively [2]. - **Glass**: The news of cold - repair of production lines due to coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe is fermenting. The real - estate demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory is increasing. The glass daily melting volume needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to solve the supply - demand contradiction [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are expected to rebound. The market is short - term consolidating and upward in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the market has a small - scale rebound. It is advisable to hold long positions lightly [3]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by currency, financial,避险, and commodity attributes, and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3]. Light Industry - **Log**: The port inventory is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. The CFR price has increased, and the market is waiting and seeing [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is slightly stronger, but the cost support is weakening. The paper mill demand is poor, and the price is expected to bottom - consolidate [5]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to continue range movement. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Meal**: Supported by the rebound of US soybeans, the prices are expected to rebound in the short - term. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the progress of Sino - US trade [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight has decreased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is increasing with the cooling weather. The price is expected to rise slightly in the coming week [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The production in some areas is affected by weather, the demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production increase, which eases supply - demand concerns. The short - term supply increases and demand decreases, and the price follows oil prices [9]. - **PTA**: The long - term oil price is expected to be weak, and the cost support is weakening. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - **MEG**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is expected to decline, and the price is under pressure from long - term inventory accumulation [9]. - **PR**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the market is in a weak oscillation [9]. - **PF**: The raw material supply is increasing, and the market lacks positive factors, expected to be weakly sorted [9].