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广发期货《农产品》日报-20260402
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-02 03:14
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures, the crude palm oil futures may further decline to around 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures will first test the support at around 9,700 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline after breaking the 9,500 - yuan support [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil has a requirement for a stagflation callback. In China, after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand is expected to gradually increase, but with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the basis quote is expected to remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is under pressure at the 10,000 - yuan mark. The spot market traders are bearish on the far - month rapeseed oil basis, and the far - month basis quote has dropped by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 2.2 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are affected by energy prices. In the short term, raw sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In China, the domestic sugar market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and sugar prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile and weak pattern [3]. 2.3 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose. The global cotton production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4% to 24.9 million tons, while consumption remains stable. In China, the upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. Although the industrial fundamentals are sound, the follow - up needs to focus on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [5]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the off - season. The prices in the main sales areas are loose, and the consumption is weak. The futures prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7]. 2.5 Apples - The inventory structure of apple main producing areas is differentiated. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. 2.6 Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable and weak, and that in North China has rebounded locally. The marginal demand is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases [11][13]. 2.7 Meal - The USDA's report shows an increase in US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean meal market is pessimistic, and the future supply pressure will continue to increase [14]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices continue to decline. The capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline under capacity pressure [16]. 2.9 Eggs - The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a slight decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 9,000 yuan, down 100 yuan from March 31, a decrease of 1.11%; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,624 yuan, down 44 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan, up 130 yuan, an increase of 1.32%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,780 yuan, down 86 yuan, a decrease of 0.87%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,122 yuan, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.56%; the futures price of OI2605 was 9,884 yuan, down 164 yuan, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2605 was 476 yuan, up 144 yuan, an increase of 43.37%; the basis of P2605 was 205 yuan, up 216 yuan, an increase of 1963.64%; the basis of OI2605 was 402 yuan, up 4 yuan, an increase of 1.01%. The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 40 yuan, unchanged; the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 44 yuan, down 22 yuan, a decrease of 100.00%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 17 yuan, down 16 yuan, a decrease of 17.20% [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On April 1, the futures price of SR2605 was 5,356 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a decrease of 0.78%; the futures price of SR2609 was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a decrease of 0.94%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, a decrease of 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,290 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, a decrease of 0.09% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 456,100 tons, a decrease of 4.69%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 1.3016 million tons, a decrease of 27.39%. The national sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 11.60 percentage points, a decrease of 23.72% [3]. 3.3 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CF2605 was 15,245 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.91%; the futures price of CF2609 was 15,375 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.90%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,797 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan, a decrease of 0.31% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0 tons, down 547,700 tons, a decrease of 100.0%; the industrial inventory was 102,400 tons, up 13,000 tons, an increase of 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 39,100 tons, a decrease of 19.0% [5]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CJ2605 was 8,635 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan, a decrease of 1.31%; the futures price of CJ2607 was 8,835 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 1.01%; the futures price of CJ2609 was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%. The Cangzhou special - grade spot price was 9,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 1, the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,457, equivalent to 22,285 tons of red dates [7]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of AP2605 was 9,860 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, an increase of 0.35%; the futures price of AP2610 was 8,497 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan, a decrease of 2.81%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan, a decrease of 6.35% [9]. - **Inventory and Market**: The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 266,400 tons, a decrease of 5.69%. The trading in the main producing areas was average, and the market sentiment has weakened [9]. 3.6 Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of C2605 was 2,350 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, a decrease of 0.04%; the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, an increase of 0.42%. The basis was 35 yuan, up 11 yuan, an increase of 45.83% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price of wet corn is stable and weak; in North China, the price has rebounded locally. The demand of downstream enterprises is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price [11][13]. 3.7 Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a decrease of 1.85%; the futures price of M2605 was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a decrease of 0.79%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2,265 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan, a decrease of 1.48% [14]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 87 yuan, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 19.18%; the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 71 yuan, down 8 yuan, a decrease of 12.70%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot was 2.87, up 0.084, an increase of 3.02%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 3.00, up 0.026, an increase of 0.88% [14]. 3.8 Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of LH2605 was 9,610 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.64%; the futures price of LH2607 was 10,605 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan, a decrease of 1.16%. The Henan spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [16]. - **Industry Situation**: Pig prices continue to decline, the capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be affected by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a risk of further decline [16]. 3.9 Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of JD2605 was 3,440 yuan/500KG, down 25 yuan, a decrease of 0.73%; the futures price of JD2606 was 3,220 yuan/500KG, down 4 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The egg - producing area price was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan, a decrease of 1.27% [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to be volatile at a low level [19].
油脂产业期现日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 07:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Indonesia will implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year, increasing the palm oil blending ratio from 40% to 50%, strengthening the global vegetable oil demand in the biofuel field. Short - term BMD palm oil may still rise. In China, port palm oil inventory is at the second - highest level since 2022, with sufficient supply and weak demand, but import inversion supports the futures market. - Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase to 84.7 million acres, with higher soybean inventories, which may suppress the soybean oil market. In China, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, and the soybean oil output has reduced, but the trading volume is light. - Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures mainly follow the international market and maintain a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. 2.2 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures fell but had a monthly gain. The sugar price was dragged down by the adjustment of energy prices due to the situation in the Middle - East. Brazil has canceled the industrial product tax on diesel, and the sugar price may fluctuate with oil prices in the short term. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic sugar market has strong supply and weak demand, and the sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. 2.3 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell due to the expected increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026. In China, the upward space of cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, and the inventory - clearing rhythm has slowed down. However, the downstream product inventory is at a low level, which supports the cotton price. Future focus should be on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The performance of production areas was differentiated. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi was firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong were under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas for the far - month contracts [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast, the warming temperature increases the willingness of grain - holders to sell, but the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders limit the decline. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holders are reluctant to sell. The demand side has a weakening marginal demand in the north port, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and a slow procurement rhythm. The feed enterprises have rigid demand, and wheat substitution is increasing. The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly, but the policy grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area was slightly lower than market expectations, and the US soybean futures rose slightly. In China, the soybean meal market has cooled down, and the spot trading volume has decreased. The overall inventory is not loose, but the market sentiment is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig price has shown a weak trend again. The second - fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have limited support for the price. The breeding side is still resistant, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures price has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by the expected capacity pressure. The short - term price may be boosted by the second - fattening sentiment, but the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and a weak trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.22% to 9000 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.53% to 8668 yuan. The basis was 05 + 320, down 10 points. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.65% to 9855 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 0.64% to 9930 yuan. The basis was P2605 - 11, down 11 points. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21% to 10282 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.07% to 9884 yuan. The basis was OI605 + 398, down 15 points [1]. 3.1.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand - Palm oil: The inventory in Chinese ports is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient. The production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the US soybean planting area to increase, and the domestic oil mill operating rate has decreased, with reduced output but light trading volume. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's policy, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry 3.2.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2605 decreased by 0.79% to 2388 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 0.66% to 5431 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5450 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5295 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning increased by 33.33%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 11.21% [2]. 3.2.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926 million tons, and the sales volume decreased by 27.39% to 345 million tons. The production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 million tons, and the monthly sales volume increased by 20.16% to 162.23 million tons. The national sugar sales rate decreased by 23.72% to 37.30%, and the sales rate in Guangxi decreased by 24.60% to 35.25%. The national industrial inventory increased by 17.03% to 581 million tons [2]. 3.3 Cotton Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.65% to 15295 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.64% to 15430 yuan/ton. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.21% to 16691 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 16820 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 100% to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 million tons, the import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 million tons. The yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2% to 21.45 days, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 0.3% to 33.24 days. The textile enterprise's processing profit decreased by 1.3% to - 2255 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.28% to 8750 yuan/ton, the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.39% to 8925 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2609 decreased by 0.55% to 9110 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.22% to 9060 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4.2 Industry Situation - The market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased by 0.09% to 4400 [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.38% to 9826 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.23% to 8743 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price performance in different production areas is differentiated, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 million tons [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Corn: The price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.21% to 2351 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 9.38% to - 29 yuan/ton. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.29% to 2745 yuan, and the basis decreased by 3.96% to 218 yuan [8]. 3.6.2 Industry Situation - In the northeast, the supply and demand situation is affected by the temperature and the attitude of grain - holders. In North China, the price is stable due to the reluctance of grain - holders to sell. The demand side has different situations in different sectors [8]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3240 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.75% to 2915 yuan. The basis increased by 7.26% to 325 yuan. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.79% to 2520 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.91% to 2299 yuan. The basis increased by 0.45% to 221 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Industry Situation - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area affected the market. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the future supply pressure will increase [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of the main contract of pigs decreased by 2.35% to 9770 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread increased by 9.43% to - 960 yuan/ton. - Spot: The prices in different regions had different changes, with the price in Shandong increasing by 50 yuan to 9900 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.2 Industry Situation - The pig price is weak, and the capacity reduction is slow. The second - fattening sentiment may support the price, but the feed price is high [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry 3.9.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of egg 04 decreased by 2.11% to 3200 yuan/500KG, and the price of egg 05 decreased by 0.38% to 3440 yuan/500KG. - Spot: The egg price in the production area decreased by 2.72% to 3.35 yuan/jin [15]. 3.9.2 Industry Situation - The supply is stable, and the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to be weak [15].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:12
1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Fats and Oils - Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year and the decline in Malaysia's palm oil production in March may drive up BMD palm oil prices. However, China's port palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The import is still at a loss, which supports the futures market. For soybean oil, the expected increase in the US soybean planting area and inventory may suppress the market, while the domestic oil mill's开机率 is decreasing, and the inventory is mixed. For rapeseed oil, affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil mainly follows the international market and maintains a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures have fallen back from their five - month high, and the sugar price is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East and fuel policies in Brazil. In the domestic market, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The current supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the sugar price is supported by the futures price. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. Cotton - The increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026 has led to a decline in ICE cotton futures. The upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is coming to an end, and the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly. The inventory removal rhythm of yarn has slowed down, and the raw material replenishment of enterprises is cautious. However, the low inventory of downstream products supports the bottom of cotton prices. Future attention should be paid to downstream orders, new - year planting areas, and weather conditions [3]. Red Dates - The jujube production areas are in the dormant period, and the market is in the off - season. The purchase and sales in the main sales areas are light, the price is loose, the consumer demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will maintain a low - level shock operation. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. Apples - The pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the apple shipment speed has decreased. The performance of production areas is divided. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi is firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and it is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather in the main production areas on the far - month contracts [5]. Corn - In the corn market, the temperature in the Northeast has warmed up, and the willingness of grain - holding entities to sell has increased, but the decline is limited due to the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holding entities are reluctant to sell. On the demand side, the inventory in the northern port has been replenished, and the demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased but is still low, and the feed enterprises purchase on a rigid basis, with an increasing substitution of wheat. The supply pressure is gradually released, and the market stabilizes and rebounds slightly, but the policy - related grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. Meal - After the USDA released the US soybean planting area report, the US soybean planting area was increased but slightly lower than market expectations, and the market was boosted. However, the domestic soybean meal market has already factored in concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity, and the sentiment has cooled. The downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot trading has declined. Although the overall short - term inventory is not loose, the capital speculation is weak, and the pig price is weak, so the soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. Pigs - The pig price has shown a weakening trend again after a brief stabilization. Secondary fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have some support for the price, but the space is limited. The breeding side still resists price cuts, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures market has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by concerns about over - capacity. Currently, the capacity reduction is slow, the supply of piglets is sufficient, and the farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment is low. Although the short - term market may be boosted by secondary fattening sentiment, the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation. The futures market may continue to decline under capacity pressure [12]. Eggs - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, as the pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking ends, the demand support weakens, and the shipment speed in some production areas slows down. The overall egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and weakening trend [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On March 31, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 9000 yuan, with a 0.22% increase; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 160 yuan to 9855 yuan, with a 1.65% increase; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 22 yuan to 10282 yuan, with a 0.21% decrease [1]. - **Inventory and Basis**: The inventory and basis of various oils have changed. For example, the soybean oil basis increased by 24.81%, and the palm oil basis decreased by 0.64% [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different varieties and different periods of oils have also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 19.58%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil 2605 spread increased by 3.31% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of sugar 2605 was 5438 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan, a 0.79% decrease; the price of sugar 2609 was 5431 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan, a 0.66% decrease [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis of Nanning and Kunming increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales in the country and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import increased significantly [2]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of cotton 2605 was 15295 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan, a 0.65% decrease; the price of cotton 2609 was 15430 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan, a 0.64% decrease [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly, while the spread between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index:M: 1% decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, and the inventory of yarn and grey cloth changed slightly. The retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, but the export volume decreased [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of jujube 2605 was 8750 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, a 0.28% decrease; the price of jujube 2607 was 8925 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan, a 0.39% decrease; the price of jujube 2609 was 9110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a 0.55% decrease [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade jujubes changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased slightly, with a total of 4400 as of March 31, equivalent to 22,000 tons of jujubes [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of apple 2605 was 9826 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan, a 0.38% decrease; the price of apple 2610 was 8743 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a 0.23% decrease [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different production areas showed different trends, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the arrival volume in some fruit markets increased [5]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port was 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a 0.21% increase; the price of corn starch 2605 was 2745 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, a 0.29% increase [8]. - **Spot Market**: The market price in Shekou Port remained unchanged, and the north - south trade profit remained stable [8]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong decreased, and the overall supply - demand situation was affected by factors such as the willingness of grain - holding entities to sell and the demand of downstream enterprises [8]. Meal - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of soybean meal M2605 was 2915 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan, a 0.75% decrease; the price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2299 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a 0.91% decrease [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased slightly [10]. - **Spread and Profit**: The spreads between different varieties and different periods of meal and the oil - meal ratio changed slightly, and the import crushing profit decreased [10]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of live - pig 2605 was 9770 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan, a 2.35% decrease; the price of live - pig 2607 was 10730 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan, a 3.03% decrease [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some regions rising and some falling [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The slaughter volume increased, the prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged, the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of egg 04 contract was 3200 yuan/500KG, down 69 yuan, a 2.11% decrease; the price of egg 05 contract was 3440 yuan/500KG, down 13 yuan, a 0.38% decrease [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased, and the basis decreased significantly [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings increased, the price of culled chickens decreased, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased [15].
《农产品》日报-20260331
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, due to the recovery of MPOA production and concerns about the slowdown in export growth, there is a risk of the crude palm oil futures stalling and falling around 4,800 ringgit. Domestically, with the strong performance of international crude oil futures, attention should be paid to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can effectively break through the 10,000 - yuan mark [1]. - For soybean oil, the Trump administration's order to increase the proportion of bio - fuels in gasoline and diesel in the US provides short - term upward momentum for CBOT soybean oil. In China, the plan of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel project and the decrease in domestic soybean oil inventory due to lower factory operating rates support the futures market, but the weak procurement and stable basis quotes show a mixed situation [1]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, market rumors of the second batch of Australian seed crushing commercial pilot opening and the increase in the proportion of palm - oil - blended diesel in Indonesia from 40% to 50% in 2026 have boosted the market. The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is in a wide - range shock around 9,800 yuan, with the upper pressure at 10,000 yuan. The spot market is in a wait - and - see state [1]. 2.2 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose, reaching a six - month high, supported by the overall optimistic sentiment in CBOT grain futures, crude oil, and the stock market. In the Mississippi Delta, farmers may switch to more profitable soybeans due to low cotton prices and high input costs, and the cotton planting area may reach a ten - year low. The market estimates the planting area to be 9.229 million acres, lower than the previous expectation. In China, the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference limits the upside of domestic cotton. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, slower yarn de - stocking, and some mills reducing their operating rates. The "Silver April" order sustainability is uncertain, but the low downstream inventory provides support for cotton prices [2]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower after reaching a five - month high. A moderate correction is expected after the 18% increase since early March. Thailand plans to use 150,000 tons of raw sugar for ethanol production. Brazil has the flexibility to adjust sugar production. Before the geopolitical situation eases, raw sugar prices may remain high and volatile. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is supported by futures, expected to remain high and volatile [4]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the consumption off - season, with light trading in the main sales areas. The prices are weakening, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory pressure is evident, and the futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The short - term futures price is expected to remain low and volatile [6]. 2.5 Apples - The apple spot market shows a differentiated trend, with good - quality apples having firm prices and ordinary apples facing de - stocking pressure. The downstream Qingming Festival stocking is less than expected, and the apple shipment speed has decreased. The market sentiment has weakened due to capital withdrawal. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in the main producing areas on the far - month contracts [7][11]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch - The current grain sales progress is slower than last year. With the warming temperature and the decline in futures prices, the enthusiasm of grain - holding entities to sell has increased. The continuous release of policy wheat and the expected auction of directional rice have weakened the bullish sentiment, and the price is under pressure. However, the price decline may be limited due to the strong price - holding attitude of traders. On the demand side, the deep - processing inventory has increased but is still low, and feed enterprises have rigid demand for corn, with an increasing substitution of wheat. In general, the short - term corn price is weak, but the limited remaining grain and the rigid demand of downstream enterprises support the price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the directional rice release [15]. 2.7 Meal - US soybeans find support around 1,160 cents but lack upward momentum. After the bio - diesel policy is implemented, funds take profits. The crude oil price fluctuates due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. In China, the concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity in the soybean meal market have been fully priced in, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot trading volume has declined recently. Although the overall inventory is still not loose, the speculation sentiment is weak. There is a bearish expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is relatively limited [17]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices show signs of stabilizing. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening in the north has increased significantly, while the south is still observing, which has a certain positive impact on market sentiment. The 05 contract of the futures market rebounded, but the far - month contracts are worried about the slow weight reduction and the decline in piglet prices. The current capacity reduction is slow, the supply of piglets is sufficient, and the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish piglets is lower than last year. Although the short - term market price may be boosted by secondary fattening sentiment, the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation of the support for secondary fattening sentiment. The 05 contract may have bottomed out, but the far - month contracts may decline further under capacity pressure [19]. 2.9 Eggs - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled by the breeding industry is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply remains stable due to the high inventory of laying hens, the increase in newly - laid hens, and the resumption of laying by molting hens. On the demand side, as the Qingming Festival stocking comes to an end, the demand support weakens, the shipment speed in some production areas slows down, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing. The overall egg market transaction is mediocre, and the egg price is expected to remain low and volatile [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, the price of Y2605 soybean oil futures was 8,714 yuan, up 0.30% from March 27; the price of P2605 palm oil futures was 9,768 yuan, up 1.66%; the price of OI605 rapeseed oil futures was 9,891 yuan, up 0.14% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,980 yuan, down 0.11% from March 27; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,930 yuan, up 0.36%; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,304 yuan, down 0.02% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Y2605 soybean oil was - 36 yuan; the basis of P2605 palm oil was - 235 yuan; the basis of OI605 rapeseed oil was 413 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons, the inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2072 million tons, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants was not clearly stated [1]. 3.2 Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,385 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous value; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,515 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 yuan/ton, down 4.00%. The main contract's open interest was 515,084 lots, down 3.03%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,435, up 0.01%, and the valid forecasts were 371, up 9.44% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 0.05%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,489 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0.00 million tons, down 100.0% from the previous value; the industrial inventory was 102.40 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 16.65 million tons, down 19.0%; the bonded area inventory was 47.10 million tons, up 9.8%. The yarn inventory days were 21.45 days, down 1.2%; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The spinning mill C32s immediate processing profit was - 2,225.30 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 166.10 billion yuan, up 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 0.60, down 82.9%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,441 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,467 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 26 yuan/ton, down 13.04%. The main contract's open interest was 304,083 lots, down 2.81%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,862, up 3.18%, and the valid forecasts were 0, down 100.00% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the price in Kunming was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 39 yuan/ton, up 550.00%; the Kunming basis was - 116 yuan/ton, up 16.55%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4,364 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%; the sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 240,000 tons, up 1100.00%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons [4]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of jujube 2605 (main contract) was 8,775 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous value; the price of jujube 2607 was 8,960 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the price of jujube 2609 was 9,160 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 42.31%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 385 yuan/ton, down 10.00%. The open interest was 165,841 lots, down 1.70%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,273, unchanged; the valid forecasts were 131, up 43.96%; the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,404, up 0.92% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 0.22%; the price of first - grade jujubes was 7,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of second - grade jujubes was 6,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes to the main contract was - 295 yuan/ton, up 20.27%; the basis of first - grade jujubes to the main contract was 325 yuan/ton, up 41.30% [6]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of apple 2605 (main contract) was 9,863 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous value; the price of apple 2610 was 8,763 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 6.35%; the 5 - 10 spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33%. The open interest was 81,103 lots, down 7.24% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market was 25 vehicles, up 13.64%; the arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market was 11 vehicles, unchanged; the arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market was 14 vehicles, up 7.69%. The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 5.69% [7]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On March 31, the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port was 2,346 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous value; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 209.09%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, down 6.67%. The market price at Shekou Port was 2,480 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The north - south trade profit was 9 yuan, down 68.97%. The Brazilian arrival duty - paid price was 2,366 yuan/ton, down 1.20%. The import profit was 114 yuan, up 19.70%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 891, down 32.55%. The trading volume was 2,032,676 lots, down 1.04%. The number of warehouse receipts was 58,377, down 1.68% [15]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value; the average price of corn starch was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The basis was 227 yuan/ton, up 7.08%. The spot price in Weifang was 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the spot price in Changchun was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 33.33%. The 05 spread between starch and corn on the disk was 391 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The Shandong starch profit was 13 yuan, up 85.71%. The open interest was 386,073 lots, up 0.23%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,510, down 3.01% [15]. 3.7 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,240 yuan, unchanged. The price of M2605 futures was 2,937 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 was 303 yuan,
《农产品》日报-20260330
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 09:28
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - In the second quarter, Southeast Asian palm oil enters the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and domestic oil mills'开机率 rebounds. Supply of palm and rapeseed oil will increase significantly, while demand is in the off - season, with weak downstream demand and lack of restocking motivation. Inventory pressure may re - accumulate, and the market will turn to a loose state. The EPA's new bio - fuel regulations have a certain drag on CBOT soybean oil. Rapeseed oil may test the 10,000 - yuan mark and then weaken again [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - USDA export sales are stable, and shipment speed is accelerating. The estimated cotton planting area is lower than expected, and the drought in the main producing areas is intensifying. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is high, and the "Golden March" peak season is ending. Spinning mills' new orders are decreasing, and yarn de - stocking is slowing down. However, the downstream finished product inventory is low, and the cotton price has strong support. Future key variables include downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather in producing areas [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - Energy cost increase and risk perception boost speculative short - covering in the sugar market, supporting raw sugar prices. Thailand plans to use 150,000 tons of raw sugar for ethanol production. Brazil has flexibility in adjusting sugar production and ethanol production. Before geopolitical tensions ease, raw sugar prices may remain high and volatile. Domestically, sugar production is expected to exceed 1.2 million tons, with strong supply and weak demand. Sugar prices are supported by futures prices and are expected to remain high and volatile [4][5]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - Boosted by macro funds, the futures market rebounds slightly. The jujube market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and obvious inventory pressure. Futures warehouse receipts are registered less year - on - year. Short - term futures prices are expected to remain low and volatile. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main producing areas [6]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple spot market shows a differentiated situation, with high - quality goods in short supply and firm prices, while ordinary goods in Shandong have inventory pressure. Downstream Qingming Festival stocking is less than expected, and the shipment speed decreases. The market sentiment weakens due to capital outflow. Short - term futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the weather in the main producing areas on far - month contracts [10][14]. 2.6 Corn Industry - In the Northeast, the sale of damp corn continues, and prices decline due to the futures price callback. In North China, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing enterprises increases, and enterprises lower purchase prices. On the demand side, deep - processing inventory is low but there is purchasing intention, and feed enterprises have rigid demand. Wheat substitution is increasing, and policy wheat auctions suppress corn demand. Short - term corn prices will be under pressure, but limited remaining grain and rigid demand will limit the decline. Attention should be paid to the 2330 - 2350 support level and subsequent policy announcements [19]. 2.7 Meal Industry - U.S. soybeans find support at around 1160 cents but lack upward momentum. Domestic soybean meal has fully priced in concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity. Sentiment has cooled, and spot trading has declined. Overall inventory is not loose, but there is limited speculation. Waiting for the planting intention report on March 31st, there is a short - term negative expectation of increased soybean planting area, but the risk is limited [23]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The futures market is declining, and the spot market remains weak. There is a large volume of pig slaughter, and the slaughter weight is high. In the off - season of demand, downstream procurement recovers slowly. Slaughter volume has increased slightly, but the terminal market has difficulty in circulation, and slaughterhouses are forced to store in warehouses. The entry of second - fattening and frozen product storage is cautious. The spot market is expected to remain weak in April. The futures market is in a backwardation pattern, and attention should be paid to 5 - 7 or 5 - 9 reverse spread opportunities [24]. 2.9 Egg Industry - Supply is stable as the number of laying hens is high, new - laying hens increase, and molting hens resume laying. Demand is boosted by pre - holiday supermarket promotions, but school procurement may stagnate during the holiday. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then fluctuate [26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: On March 27, compared with March 26, soybean oil spot prices in Jiangsu rose 40 yuan to 8990 yuan, with a 0.45% increase; palm oil spot prices in Guangdong rose 57 yuan to 9603 yuan, with a 0.59% increase; rapeseed oil spot prices in Jiangsu rose 38 yuan to 10306 yuan, with a 0.37% increase [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread remained unchanged at 58; the palm oil 05 - 09 spread increased from 4 to 44, with a 1000% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread decreased from 102 to 97, with a 4.9% decrease [1]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the second quarter, palm oil and rapeseed oil supply will increase, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory pressure may re - accumulate [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, cotton 2605 rose 0.36% to 12392 yuan/ton, cotton 2609 rose 0.42% to 15530 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 8% to - 135 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang 3128B arrival price rose 0.34% to 16653 yuan/ton, CC Index: 3128B rose 0.41% to 16814 yuan/ton, and FC Index: M: 1% rose 2.3% to 13472 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased 100% to 0, industrial inventory increased 14.5% to 102.4 million tons, and import volume decreased 19% to 16.65 [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, sugar 2605 rose 0.02% to 5464 yuan/ton, sugar 2609 rose 0.04% to 5487 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 4.55% to - 23 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic sugar prices remained unchanged, and Brazilian imported sugar prices (quota - free) increased 1.24% to 5565 yuan/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased 4.69% to 926 million tons, and sales decreased 27.39% to 345 million tons [4]. 3.4 Jujube Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, jujube 2605 rose 0.4% to 8870 yuan/ton, jujube 2607 rose 0.28%, and jujube 2609 rose 0.49% to 9220 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade jujube spot prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the inventory of 36 sample points was 11459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Apple Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, apple 2605 rose 0.21% to 9967 yuan/ton, apple 2610 rose 0.96% to 8767 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased 4.91% to 1262 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The apple spot market shows a differentiated situation, with high - quality goods in short supply and firm prices, while ordinary goods in Shandong have inventory pressure [14]. - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the national cold - storage inventory was 441.79 million tons, a decrease of 26.62 million tons from the previous value [14]. 3.6 Corn Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, corn 2605 decreased 0.29% to 2369 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 3.45% to - 30 yuan/ton [19]. - **Spot Market**: Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price decreased 0.42% to 2380 yuan/ton, and Shekou Port's market price decreased 0.4% to 2490 yuan/ton [19]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, corn prices decline, in North China, deep - processing enterprises lower purchase prices. Demand is affected by wheat substitution and policy wheat auctions [19]. 3.7 Meal Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, soybean meal 2605 decreased 0.51% to 2937 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal 2605 decreased 1.24% to 2315 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Market**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price decreased 1.22% to 3240 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price decreased 1.17% to 2540 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spread and Profit**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread decreased 10.26% to - 86, and the Brazilian 5 - month ship - period crushing profit increased 12.8% to 256 [23]. 3.8 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, pig 2605 rose 1.32% to 9965 yuan/ton, pig 2607 decreased 0.62% to 11180 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread increased 14.13% to - 1215 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot Market**: Pig prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with an increase in some regions and a decrease in others [24]. - **Industry Situation**: There is a large volume of pig slaughter, high slaughter weight, slow downstream procurement recovery, and cautious entry of second - fattening and frozen product storage [24]. 3.9 Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, egg 04 decreased 1.43% to 3418 yuan/500KG, egg 05 decreased 0.28% to 3512 yuan/500KG, and the 4 - 5 spread decreased 41.49% to - 133 [26]. - **Spot Market**: Egg - producing area prices rose 3.02% to 3.38 yuan/jin [26]. - **Industry Situation**: Egg supply is stable, and demand is affected by pre - holiday promotions and school holidays [26].
《农产品》日报-20260326
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 02:46
Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may test the support at 4,500 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures will test the support at 9,500 yuan. If it breaks below 9,500 yuan, it may rise again. US biodiesel policy is approaching, and NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory is at a 13 - year high. Domestic traders are cautious, and the supply is sufficient currently, but the refinery's operating rate may decline later, and the basis quote may rise slightly [1]. 2. Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures are slightly up. US cotton production areas face drought and cold air, and the inspection progress exceeds 100%. The domestic cotton market is in the second half of the "Golden March", with slower yarn transactions. The market is expected to be oscillating and slightly strong, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' orders and macro - news [2]. 3. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures have fallen from a five - month high. Brazil's sugarcane crush volume is expected to increase, but sugar production may be adjusted down. India's sugar production is also expected to be lower. Domestic sugar imports exceed expectations, and the spot market is weak, but prices are supported. Short - term sugar futures are likely to maintain a high - level oscillation [4]. 4. Red Date Industry - The futures market has a small rebound at a low level, but the upside is limited due to weak consumption in the off - season. The inventory reduction is slow, and the number of registered futures warrants is decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5]. 5. Apple Industry - The futures market has fallen from a high level, and the trading volume has decreased significantly. The spot market is divided, with good - quality apples having a good trading atmosphere and ordinary apples having inventory pressure. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to the inventory reduction of ordinary apples and weather changes [7]. 6. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - The corn price in the Northeast is stable, the price in the North Port is weak, and the price in North China is stable. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises exists, but the substitution of wheat is increasing. Policy - related factors such as wheat auctions and expected rice auctions may affect the price. Corn prices are under pressure but limited by low social inventory, and the operation range is 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [9]. 7. Meal Industry - US soybean prices are supported at around 1,160 cents, with multiple factors affecting the market. Domestic soybean meal has digested concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity. The inventory is not loose, but the speculation is weak. There is a potential negative impact from the expected increase in soybean planting area [10]. 8. Pig Industry - The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot market is weak. The large - scale pig slaughter, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening. The demand is in the off - season, and the market is pessimistic. The futures price has limited room to fall after breaking below 10,000 yuan, but the weak spot market may continue until April [12]. 9. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is relatively loose, with an increase in the number of culled chickens and a slight increase in newly - laid hens. The demand is affected by high raw material prices and the end of pre - holiday stocking. The overall market is weak, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: The spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu is 8,970 - 9,040 yuan, down 70 yuan (-0.77%); the futures price of Y2605 is 8,594 yuan, down 146 yuan (-1.67%); the basis of Y2605 is 376 yuan, up 76 yuan (25.33%). The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong is 9,918 yuan, down 210 yuan; the futures price of P2605 is 9,942 yuan, down 298 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,378 yuan, down 140 yuan; the futures price of OI605 is 9,950 yuan, down 137 yuan [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by US soybean oil and crude oil. The domestic soybean oil market has sufficient supply currently, and the refinery's operating rate may decline. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the US - Iran cease - fire plan and the decline of US crude oil prices [1]. 2. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of cotton 2605 is 15,340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the futures price of cotton 2609 is 15,465 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (0.42%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 125 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-4.17%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 16,573 yuan, down 17 yuan (-0.10%); the CC Index of 3128B is 16,711 yuan, down 21 yuan (-0.13%) [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 0.00 million tons, down 547.70 million tons (-100%); the industrial inventory is 102.40 million tons, up 13.00 million tons (14.5%); the import volume is 16.65 million tons, down 3.91 million tons (-19.0%); the bonded area inventory is 47.10 million tons, up 4.20 million tons (9.8%) [2]. 3. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of sugar 2605 is 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of sugar 2609 is 5,461 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 32 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (-3.23%). The spot price in Nanning is 5,470 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming is 5,320 yuan, unchanged [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production cumulative value is 926.00 million tons, down 45.61 million tons (-4.69%); the national sugar sales cumulative value is 345.00 million tons, down 130.16 million tons (-27.39%); the sugar production in Guangxi cumulative value is 565.13 million tons, down 51.58 million tons (-8.36%) [4]. 4. Red Date Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of red date 2605 is 8,890 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-0.39%); the futures price of red date 2607 is 9,060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-0.33%); the futures price of red date 2609 is 9,265 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-0.48%); the 5 - 7 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-3.03%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (2.60%) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market rebounds slightly at a low level, but the consumption in the off - season is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [5]. 5. Apple Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of apple 2605 is 9,978 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan (-0.93%); the futures price of apple 2610 is 8,666 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.41%); the 5 - 10 spread is 1,312 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan (-8.95%) [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market falls from a high level, and the spot market is divided. The cold - storage inventory is at a historical low [7]. 6. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of corn 2605 is 2,376 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (-0.29%); the Jinzhou Port flat - cabin price is 2,390 yuan, down 20 yuan (-0.83%); the basis is 14 yuan, down 13 yuan (-48.15%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 23 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-9.52%). The futures price of corn starch 2605 is 2,763 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.32%); the average price of corn starch is 2,972 yuan, down 5 yuan (-0.17%); the basis is 209 yuan, up 4 yuan (1.95%) [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The corn price in the Northeast is stable, the price in the North Port is weak, and the price in North China is stable. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises exists, but the substitution of wheat is increasing. Policy - related factors may affect the price [9]. 7. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu is 3,280 yuan, down 20 yuan (-0.61%); the futures price of M2605 is 2,932 yuan, down 29 yuan (-0.98%); the basis of M2605 is 339 yuan, down 9 yuan (-2.65%). The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu is 2,560 yuan, down 40 yuan (-1.54%); the futures price of RM2605 is 2,339 yuan, down 26 yuan (-1.10%); the basis of RM2605 is 221 yuan, down 14 yuan (-5.96%) [10]. - **Market Analysis**: US soybean prices are affected by multiple factors. Domestic soybean meal has digested concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity, and the inventory is not loose [10]. 8. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of the main contract of pigs 2605 is 9,980 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan (-0.65%); the futures price of pigs 2607 is 11,310 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (0.53%); the 5 - 7 spread is - 1,330 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan (-10.37%) [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot market is weak. The large - scale pig slaughter, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening [12]. 9. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price of egg 04 contract is 3,330 yuan/500KG, up 18 yuan (0.54%); the futures price of egg 05 contract is 3,410 yuan/500KG, up 9 yuan (0.26%); the 4 - 5 spread is - 80 yuan/500KG, up 9 yuan (10.11%) [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of eggs is relatively loose, and the demand is affected by high raw material prices and the end of pre - holiday stocking. The overall market is weak [15].
广发期货日评-20260324
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 13:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The Middle East situation is tense, with Israel and Iran making frequent statements, and the situation in the Middle East may escalate again, which has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets [3] - The A - share market is under pressure due to the decline in risk preference, and there is a significant correction [3] - The price trends of various commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, and the market is volatile [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The stock index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are under pressure due to the decline in risk preference in the A - share market. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market is greatly affected by the news of the US - Iran conflict. The decline trend of precious metals is hard to end in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. If the US - Iran war eases, the silver price is expected to stop falling and rebound, otherwise, it may fall back. Platinum and palladium are recommended to maintain a bearish view [3] Steel and Iron Ore - The steel price center moves up, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure. The iron ore is in high - level shock. For coal and coke, it is recommended to go long at low positions [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the US - Iran situation. The aluminum price has limited downward space. For other non - ferrous metals, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective supply - demand and price trends [3] New Energy - The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and the futures are approaching the daily limit down. The lithium carbonate market fluctuates greatly, and short - term and medium - term operation suggestions are given [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price has a significant correction due to the easing signal. Most energy and chemical products are affected by the geopolitical situation and the oil price adjustment. Different operation suggestions are given for different products [3] Agricultural Products - The prices of agricultural products are also affected by geopolitical factors. Different agricultural products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as the hog market is under pressure, and the prices of some grains and oils are in shock [3]
道道全(002852) - 002852道道全投资者关系管理信息20260320
2026-03-20 07:58
Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of CNY 6.195 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.24% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 234 million, up 32.02% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses increased by 53.25%, indicating a significant improvement in profit quality [1] - Basic earnings per share rose to CNY 0.679, a 32.02% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The weighted average return on equity improved to 10.68%, up 2.12 percentage points from the previous year [1] Group 2: Key Growth Drivers - The main drivers of revenue growth in 2025 were: 1. Increased sales volume of core packaged oils 2. Enhanced risk resistance through optimized hedging strategies amid raw material supply imbalances 3. Digital management initiatives that improved operational efficiency [1] - The sustainability of these growth drivers is supported by ongoing channel expansion and product diversification [1] Group 3: Product and Regional Performance - Packaged oil revenue grew by 6.21%, while bulk oil revenue surged by 55.42%, despite a 19.40% decline in meal product revenue due to trade tensions affecting canola imports [2] - Revenue in East China and Southwest regions increased by 14.29% and 43.26% respectively, while revenue in the traditionally strong Central China region declined by 7.58% [2] - The decline in Central China was attributed to regional adjustments in bulk oil business, although core packaged oil revenue still grew [2] Group 4: Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin decreased by 1.24 percentage points, with packaged oil gross margin also declining, primarily due to rising raw material costs from trade tensions [2] - Sales expenses decreased by 21.35% and financial expenses dropped significantly by 91.35%, indicating effective cost control measures [3] - The company plans to maintain a balanced approach to sales expenses, focusing on precise brand promotion and channel expansion [3] Group 5: Future Strategies and Investments - The company is investing CNY 1 billion in a new edible oil processing project in Shaanxi, despite current capacity utilization being around 60% [3] - The strategy for expanding production capacity includes filling market gaps in the Northwest and enhancing distribution channels [3] - The long-term dividend policy will be determined based on industry characteristics, operational performance, and investment plans [3]
《农产品》日报-20260319
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 06:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil may decline to 9,500 yuan. US biodiesel policy is awaited, and domestic soybean oil may oscillate above 8,500 yuan. Vegetable oil market has positive factors, and rapeseed oil needs to watch for capital movements. [1] Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure from a stronger dollar. US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend. Domestic cotton has a bearish factor realized, and short - term prices will remain high and volatile. [2] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reached a seven - week high. Global sugar supply surplus is expected to narrow. Domestic sugar prices are supported but limited by weak sales data and increased imports, and will maintain high - level volatility. [4] Red Dates - In the off - season, the inventory reduction pressure is large. Red date futures prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. [5][9] Apples - The apple spot market shows structural differentiation. Cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, supporting the futures price. Attention should be paid to Qingming replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes. [13][17] Corn - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, and those in North China are steady. Demand from ports and deep - processing enterprises is recovering, but feed enterprises' demand is weak. Corn prices will remain high and volatile. [20][22] Meal - The US soybean market is回调, but the decline is limited. Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain high - level volatility, waiting for the planting intention report. [24] Pigs - Slaughter volume is increasing, but the supply is large. The market is waiting for a lower entry point. Futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out. [27] Eggs - Egg supply may decline slightly, and demand is average. Egg prices will maintain a low - level volatile pattern. [29] Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 18, compared with March 17, soybean oil spot price decreased by 0.23%, futures price decreased by 1.20%, and basis increased by 40.78%. Palm oil spot price decreased by 1.62%, futures price decreased by 2.63%, and basis increased by 134.21%. Rapeseed oil spot price decreased by 0.60%, futures price decreased by 0.54%, and basis decreased by 2.02%. [1] Cotton - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2605 decreased by 1.74%, and 2609 decreased by 1.61%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.67%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.98%. [2] - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B increased, while FC Index M 1% increased significantly. The basis of 3128B - 05 and 3128B - 09 increased. [2] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, and imports increased by 49.5%. [2] Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2605 decreased by 1.17%, and 2609 decreased by 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 10.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.00%. [4] - **Spot Market**: Nanning and Kunming spot prices decreased, and the basis increased. Imported sugar prices increased. [4] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased by 4.69%, sales decreased by 27.39%, and industrial inventory increased by 17.03%. [4] Red Dates - **Futures Market**: Red date 2605 decreased by 2.55%, 2607 decreased by 2.61%, and 2609 decreased by 2.50%. The 5 - 7 spread increased by 5.41%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.33%. The open interest decreased by 6.05%. [5] - **Spot Market**: Cangzhou spot prices remained stable, and the basis increased. [5] Apples - **Futures Market**: Apple 2605 increased by 0.03%, and 2610 increased by 0.24%. The 5 - 10 spread decreased by 1.33%. The open interest increased by 1.59%. [13] - **Spot Market**: The basis decreased by 6.35%. [13] - **Industry Situation**: National cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.27%. [13] Corn - **Corn**: The 2605 price decreased by 0.17%, the basis increased by 16.67%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48%. [20] - **Corn Starch**: The 2605 price decreased by 0.33%, the basis increased by 386.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. [20] Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price increased by 0.30%, the futures price decreased by 1.11%, and the basis increased by 17.60%. The import crushing profit decreased by 23.3%. [24] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price decreased by 0.75%, the futures price decreased by 1.69%, and the basis increased by 11.28%. The import crushing profit decreased by 75.34%. [24] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 706.25%, the 2605 price decreased by 2.06%, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 76.70%. The open interest increased by 1.13%. [27] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions decreased slightly. [27] - **Industry Situation**: Slaughter volume increased by 0.80%, the white - striped pork price decreased by 3.01%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.98%. [27] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The 04 contract increased by 0.65%, and the 05 contract increased by 0.53%. The 4 - 5 spread increased by 2.34%. [29] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.80%, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, and the culled - hen price increased by 5.26%. [29] - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92%. [29]
《农产品》日报-20260313
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 02:54
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - The basis quotes of oils are unable to rise due to the upward movement of the futures market and the off - season demand. The price of rapeseed oil may have a chance to reach the 10,000 - yuan mark again if the crude oil futures price continues to rise. The Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate within the range of 4500 - 4600 ringgit, and the domestic palm oil futures may face pressure to decline. The CBOT soybean oil may continue to rise in the short - term, and the domestic soybean oil basis quotes are supported [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures are slightly down but close to a two - week high. The US cotton export sales have increased week - on - week, and it is expected to maintain a low - level range - bound pattern. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton has回调 after several rises, and the cotton futures' long - position pattern continues [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures have closed higher. It is expected that the short - term sugar price will remain firm with limited downward adjustment space. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound and slightly stronger trend, but the upward momentum for a significant price increase is limited [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - The 25/26 crop season jujube market still has an oversupply pattern. The consumption market is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The warehouse receipt cost supports the futures price, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress and weather conditions in the producing areas [5]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high level as the market sentiment has cooled. The spot market shows a "strong in the west and weak in the east" pattern. The inventory decline supports the futures price, and attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit inventory reduction, and weather changes [8]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - The corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but the expected increase in supply and substitution limit its upward space, and it will maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [10]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The US soybean is supported by multiple factors but lacks fundamental changes. The domestic basis has strengthened, and the futures market is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern with a strengthening basis [13]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The large - scale pig slaughter and off - season demand suppress the spot price. The secondary fattening enthusiasm is low, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out, with the possibility of further decline in the near - term contracts [16]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The supply of laying hens remains stable, and the demand is moderate. The egg price is expected to maintain a low - level range - bound pattern in the short - term [18]. 3. Summary of Each Industry Based on the Content 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8950 yuan, up 190 yuan (2.17%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 is 8632 yuan, up 62 yuan (0.72%); the basis is 318 yuan, up 128 yuan (67.37%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9753 yuan, up 273 yuan (2.88%); the futures price of P2605 is 9684 yuan, up 158 yuan (1.66%); the basis is - 46 yuan, up 250% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10232 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.10%); the futures price of OI605 is 9769 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.09%); the basis is 464 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.22%) [1]. Spread Changes - **Inter - month spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean oil is - 22 yuan, down 19.30%; the 05 - 09 spread of palm oil is 26 yuan, up 46.43%; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed oil is - 12 yuan, down 12.82% [1]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil is - 803 yuan, down 11.53%; the 2605 spread between soybean oil and palm oil is - 1052 yuan, down 10.04%; the spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1282 yuan, down 13.50%; the 2605 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1137 yuan, down 5.88% [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 is 15545 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (1.47%); the price of cotton 2609 is 15380 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan (1.40%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (16.67%) [2]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 16673 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan (1.15%); the CC Index: 3128B is 16848 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan (1.08%); the FC Index:M: 1% is 12647 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan (0.81%) [2]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory is 547.70 million tons, down 31.17 million tons (- 5.4%); the industrial inventory is 89.40 million tons, up 3.30 million tons (3.8%); the import volume is 17.79 million tons, up 5.89 million tons (49.5%); the bonded area inventory is 47.10 million tons, up 4.20 million tons (9.8%) [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of sugar 2605 is 5416 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.13%); the price of sugar 2609 is 5447 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 31 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 24.00%) [3]. Spot Market - The price in Nanning is 5470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.18%); the price in Kunming is 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Nanning basis is 54 yuan, up 17 yuan (45.95%); the Kunming basis is - 96 yuan, up 7 yuan (6.80%) [3]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 689.00 million tons, down 60.28 million tons (- 8.05%); the cumulative national sugar sales is 270.00 million tons, down 103.50 million tons (- 27.71%); the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 402.90 million tons, down 78.80 million tons (- 16.36%) [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry Futures Market - The price of jujube 2605 is 9080 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 0.66%); the price of jujube 2607 is 9245 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (- 0.86%); the price of jujube 2609 is 9535 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan (- 1.00%) [5]. Spot Market - The price of Cangzhou special - grade jujube is 9210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the price of Cangzhou first - grade jujube is 7900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Cangzhou second - grade jujube is 6900 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. 2.5 Apple Industry Futures Market - The price of apple 2605 is 9984 yuan/ton, down 252 yuan (- 2.46%); the price of apple 2610 is 8636 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.24%); the 5 - 10 spread is 1348 yuan/ton, down 231 yuan (- 14.63%) [8]. Spot Market - The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market is 23 vehicles, down 2 vehicles (- 8.00%); the arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market is 12 vehicles, down 1 vehicle (- 7.69%); the arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market is 16 vehicles, down 1 vehicle (- 5.88%) [8]. Industry Situation - The national cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, down 27.81 million tons (- 5.27%) [8]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry Corn - The price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port is 2396 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.04%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price at Shekou Port is 2500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.40%); the import profit is 181 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (- 6.44%) [10]. Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2605 is 2723 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.18%); the average price of corn starch is 2917 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.31%); the basis is 194 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (2.11%) [10]. 2.7 Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu is 3280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.92%); the futures price of M2605 is 3054 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.46%); the basis is 226 yuan, up 44 yuan (24.18%) [13]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu is 2666 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (1.53%); the futures price of RM2605 is 2492 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.48%); the basis is 168 yuan, up 28 yuan (20.00%) [13]. Spreads - The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 10 yuan, down 71.43%; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan, up 120.00%; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.74, up 0.021 (0.76%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.83, up 0.033 (1.19%); the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 620 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 1.59%); the 2605 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 562 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 4.42%) [13]. 2.8 Pig Industry Futures Market - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 11130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.36%); the price of live pigs 2603 is 10180 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.89%); the 3 - 5 spread is - 950 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (12.04%) [16]. Spot Market - The price in Henan is 10050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price in Shandong is 10250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Sichuan is 10200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Liaoning is 9900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price in Guangdong is 10710 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price in Hunan is 10110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Hebei is 10100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [16]. Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 165,965 heads, up 1547 heads (0.94%); the weekly white - strip price is 17.94 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan (- 2.92%); the weekly piglet price is 27.44 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.46 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.03%); the weekly slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, up 0.4 kg (0.31%); the weekly self - breeding profit is - 238 yuan/head, down 78.3 yuan (- 49.06%); the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 58.7 yuan/head, down 79.7 yuan (- 382.72%); the monthly fertile sow inventory is 39610,000 heads, down 290,000 heads (- 0.73%) [16]. 2.9 Egg Industry Futures Market - The price of the egg 04 contract is 3271 yuan/500KG, up 30 yuan (0.93%); the price of the egg 05 contract is 3457 yuan/500KG, up 19 yuan (0.55%); the 4 - 5 spread is - 186 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan (5.58%) [18]. Spot Market - The egg - producing area price is 3.11 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis is - 342 yuan/500KG, down 19 yuan (- 5.87%) [18]. Industry Situation - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks is 3.50 yuan/feather, up 0.20 yuan (6.06%); the price of culled chickens is 4.94 yuan/jin, up 0.51 yuan (11.39%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.63, down 0.26 (- 9.00%); the breeding profit is - 16.02 yuan/feather, down 6.41 yuan (- 249.92%) [18].