咨询公司：特朗普关税冲击市场，华尔街奖金最多可下降20% 金十数据5月8日讯，薪酬咨询公司Johnson Associates的一份报告称，由于经济和地缘政治的不确定性阻 碍了交易，预计今年华尔街的奖金将出现下滑。由于企业推迟IPO和并购，投资银行业务今年已趋于枯 竭。在特朗普上个月宣布的关税令市场动荡之后，企业一直不愿采取行动。这家咨询公司预计，今年的 奖金最多将减少10%。"银行家们担心并害怕出现瘫痪，即客户活动冻结，公司不投资、不买卖，公司 无法产生它们赖以生存的费用。这是目前最大的担忧，"Johnson Associates创始人艾伦•约翰逊表 示。"不确定性持续的时间越长，影响就越大。"他说，在最坏的情况下，如果经济活动放缓，导致交易 停止，银行家的奖金可能最多减少20%。若关税问题更加明朗，以及地缘政治紧张局势的缓和，可能会 使奖金持平或略有增加。 ...

瑞士央行总裁表示，企业表主要担忧是地缘政治的不确定性、欧洲需求趋于疲软，以及过去两周瑞郎走 强。瑞士正面临关税的三重打击。我们的职责是稳定瑞士的物价，我们必须利用 利率和 汇率来确保这 点。 ...

瑞士央行行长：企业主要关切是地缘政治不确定性以及来自欧洲的需求疲软，此外，过去两周内瑞士法 郎走强也是企业关注的重点。 ...

日央行维持利率不变应对关税不确定性 日元小幅回落 金十数据5月1日讯，由于美国关税带来的不确定性加剧，日本央行维持利率不变，美元兑日元走高。由 于特朗普的贸易战推动了对美国资产的抛售以及避险需求增加，日元在过去四个月连续上涨，上周达到 了自去年九月以来的最高水平。根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据，投机性交易者对日元的净多头头 寸最近攀升至历史高位。考虑到地缘政治的不确定性以及近期日元的强势，市场将密切关注日本央行行 长植田和男在下午的新闻发布会上对未来加息的任何指导。知情人士上月表示，日本央行官员认为，在 等待更多数据分析关税影响的过程中，没有必要改变逐步加息的立场。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Tariff easing and the possibility of Russia - Ukraine negotiations may suppress gold prices, but due to tariff policy uncertainty, the continuous decline space of gold prices is limited after last week's sharp adjustment. Gold prices are expected to enter a high - level range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the May Day holiday and wait and see. The medium - long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. For silver, tariff negotiation expectations support its commodity attribute, and with some short - selling of gold - silver ratio configurations, silver is relatively resilient, but its upside space is limited due to economic downturn risks and the slowdown of physical demand [4]. - Medium - long - term: Against the backdrop of the global tariff trade war, the risk of economic recession increases, the Fed may cut interest rates in June, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and tariff policies will weaken the US dollar credit. Global central banks continue to buy gold, so gold still has medium - long - term allocation value, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On April 28, 2025, compared with April 25, 2025, London gold spot decreased by 0.6%, London silver spot decreased by 1.9%, COMEX gold decreased by 0.6%, COMEX silver decreased by 2.0%, AU2506 decreased by 0.9%, AG2506 decreased by 1.4%, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.8%, and AG (T + D) decreased by 1.4% [3]. - Regarding spreads/ratios, from April 25 to April 28, 2025, the change rates of gold TD - SHFE active spread, silver TD - SHFE active spread, gold internal - external spread (TD - London), silver internal - external spread (TD - London), SHFE gold - silver main ratio, COMEX gold - silver main ratio, AU2508 - 2506, and AG2508 - 2506 were - 47.0%, 25.0%, - 7.4%, - 11.2%, 0.4%, 1.5%, - 8.7%, and - 4.8% respectively [3]. Position Data - From April 24 to April 25, 2025, gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.24%, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.03%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 4.72%, non - commercial short positions increased by 20.17%, net long positions decreased by 13.27%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.58%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 5.45%, and net long positions increased by 1.77% [3]. Inventory Data - From April 25 to April 28, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged (0.00% change), SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.17%. From April 24 to April 25, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.58%, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.03% [3]. Related Market Data - From April 25 to April 28, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.03%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.30%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.69%, VIX decreased by 6.16%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.74%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.64% [4]. News and Analysis - Trump said he would announce a trade agreement in the "next three to four weeks", and US officials have a template for tariff negotiations. Russia and the US envoy confirmed that Russia is willing to negotiate with Ukraine without pre - conditions [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China's domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, a year - on - year increase of 327.73%, reaching 138.21 tons by the end of March [4]. - On April 28, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.44% to 780.04 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.52% to 8168 yuan/kilogram [4].

Report Overview - The report is a daily view on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, covering gold, copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [2] 1. Precious Metals (Gold) Core View - The Fed's Beige Book's mention of tariff risks suppresses market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakens gold's appeal. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, with central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Key Points - **Price Influencing Factors**: Tariff risks and the US dollar index affect short - term gold prices, while central bank demand and geopolitics support long - term prices [3] 2. Copper Core View - The Politburo meeting boosts market confidence. The supply issue has been factored into copper prices, and demand from white - goods and power industries is positive [15] Key Points - **Macro**: The Politburo meeting's statements on monetary and fiscal policies give market confidence [15] - **Fundamentals**: Supply concerns are already reflected in prices, and demand from white - goods and power sectors is promising [15] - **Price Data**: - **Futures**:沪铜主力 at 77,580 yuan/ton, up 0.18%;伦铜3M at 9,360 dollars/ton, down 1% [16] - **Spot**: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 77,565 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [20] 3. Zinc Core View - Domestic zinc ingot inventory is decreasing. Cost support weakens, demand is mixed, and external factors limit price decline [35] Key Points - **Inventory**: SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons week - on - week [35] - **Cost**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, weakening cost support [35] - **Demand**: Galvanizing sector's开工 is up, while die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide开工 is down [35] - **Price Data**:沪锌主力 at 22,520 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [36] 4. Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, Trump's statement on tariffs improves market sentiment, and supply is stable with inventory decline. For alumina, supply and demand have different trends, and inventory affects prices [46] Key Points - **Aluminum**: - **Macro**: Trump's statement on tariffs affects market sentiment [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but demand may decline after the peak season [46] - **Price Data**:沪铝主力 at 19,935 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [46] - **Alumina**: - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is abundant, and alumina production may increase after some plants resume operations [46] - **Demand**: Little change in demand [46] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is decreasing, but high warehouse receipts limit price rebound [46] 5. Nickel Core View - There is no obvious upward momentum. Nickel product royalties are set to be implemented, and different segments of the nickel industry have various trends [66] Key Points - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply is affected by the end of the rainy season, with high - grade ore remaining tight [66] - **Product Trends**: Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are relatively stable [66] - **Price Data**:沪镍主连 at 124,690 yuan/ton, down 1% [67] 6. Tin Core View - Tin prices return to fundamentals. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by semiconductor expectations [80] Key Points - **Supply**: Although there are plans for tin mine复产, it is difficult to complete in 1 - 2 weeks [80] - **Demand**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers slightly due to Sino - US tariff policy expectations [80] - **Price Data**:沪锡主力 at 260,570 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [80] 7. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Overall supply is high despite some producers' cuts. Demand from energy storage projects is weak, and downstream restocking is cautious [91] Key Points - **Supply**: Some small and medium - sized producers cut production, but large producers increase efficiency [91] - **Demand**: Energy storage demand is weak, and downstream restocking is slow [91] - **Price Data**:碳酸锂期货主力 at 66,960 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan [91] 8. Industrial Silicon Core View - Supply in the south is slowly recovering, and prices are at a historical low. High inventory is difficult to deplete due to weak demand [99] Key Points - **Supply**: Southern production is slowly increasing, and a northern plant may undergo maintenance [99] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and high inventory persists [99] - **Price Data**:华东553 at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [100]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2506 | AG2506 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格跟踪 | 2025/4/25 | 3305. 65 | 33. 45 | 3316. 10 | 33. 73 | 787. 20 | 8280.00 | 785. 39 | 8272. 00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the China/HK market, with expectations of a broadening rally in the near future [3][7][14]. Core Insights - There has been a notable rotation from growth to value stocks, with no signs of panic selling in A-shares, suggesting a more orderly market environment [4][12]. - The Southbound trading remains robust, with net inflows averaging US$1.1 billion per day in February, marking the 20th consecutive month of net inflows [12][28]. - The report highlights that the A/H premium spread remains depressed, indicating potential for a catch-up play as tech strength drives H-outperformance [8][14]. - The report anticipates that small and mid-cap A-shares, particularly the CSI1000 index, will outperform due to higher exposure to AI and retail ownership [8][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Despite a recent pullback, year-to-date performance for HSTECH is +24.6%, HSCEI +15.5%, and CSI 1000 +5.2% [7]. - The report notes that the sharp outperformance in HK shares has pushed the A/H premium to levels rarely seen in the last four years [14]. Fund Flows - Hedge funds have increased their exposure to China, with their China allocation now at the 45th percentile, up from the 8th percentile in December [17][18]. - Mutual funds and global long-only funds have trimmed their China exposure, indicating a mixed sentiment among different investor types [20]. Retail and Institutional Interest - Onshore retail margin trading has reached post-2015 highs, indicating increased interest in software and AI application-related stocks [28][31]. - The CSI1000 index is noted for its balanced exposure to software applications and infrastructure, making it a favorable investment choice [33].