金十图示：2025年05月09日（周五）香港恒生指数期货技术面一览（一小时图） | 时期 | 简单移动平均线 | 指数移动平均线 | | --- | --- | --- | | MA5 | 22710.5 | 22686.4 | | | 卖出 | 薬品 | | MA10 | 22706.3 | 22709.4 | | | 卖出 | 卖出 | | MA20 | 22726.9 | 22703.9 | | | 菜品 | 菜品 | | MA50 | 22691.5 | 22620.9 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 卖出 | 买入 | | MA100 | 22430.5 | 22475.5 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA200 | 22148.7 | 22206.7 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | 卖出:7 买入:5 总结:卖出 | | | | HE FIC H | 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 发市 三 | 4 | 11 | | 2025年05月09日 北京时间11:10 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 价格 | 动作 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in alumina prices may be due to short - term market sentiment, capital speculation, and supply - side disturbances. Given the overall surplus pattern and the expected loose supply of ore, it is difficult to determine this as a reversal. It is likely a rebound if supply remains loose and demand shows no significant improvement [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term trend remains oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] - Gold is in an overall oscillating pattern. The short - term decline is due to the ebb of避险情绪 and technical corrections, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11][12] - Iron ore faces high supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality exacerbates the high - valuation risk. A high - short strategy is maintained [15] - Glass is in a situation where daily melting is low, factory inventories are high, and demand is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies. A bearish strategy is maintained [20] - For soybeans, the supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, and the overall selling pressure in the soybean market has increased. The soybean futures market shows signs of a phased peak [23] Summary by Category Alumina - Fundamental analysis: The alumina market is in a surplus pattern. The previous rebound in the spot market was partly due to restocking in northern electrolytic aluminum production areas. Supply reduction is not significant, and the expected loose supply of ore weakens the logic of supply reduction [3] - Technical analysis: The previous alumina futures showed a BACK structure. Whether the May 8 increase can break the original oscillating pattern remains to be seen. If it fails to continue to rise with increasing volume and break through key pressure levels, it is likely a rebound [3] Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] Gold - Technical analysis: The external gold market has adjusted after a significant increase close to the previous high, and Shanghai gold has followed the decline. It is in an overall oscillating pattern. Short - term technical corrections are due to the ebb of避险情绪 and large accumulated gains [11][12] Iron Ore - Fundamental analysis: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to high supply surplus pressure, and the approaching seasonal off - season for domestic demand exacerbates the high - valuation risk [15] - Technical analysis: A large negative line was closed today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [15] Glass - Fundamental analysis: The current daily melting is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Demand growth depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [20] - Technical analysis: The price hit a new low today, and the bearish strategy remains unchanged [20] Soybeans - Fundamental analysis: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for the soybean futures market [23] - Technical analysis: Profitable funds have reduced their positions, and the open interest has continuously declined, showing signs of a phased peak [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the financial products industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of momentum-driven technical analysis and risk management in the financial products sector, highlighting the dual framework of momentum and risk control [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Momentum-Driven Technical Analysis - The report discusses the momentum effect, indicating that assets generally exhibit a certain degree of trend persistence in the short term [13]. - Moving averages (MA) are defined as a key indicator for assessing momentum, helping to smooth price fluctuations and identify potential trends [14][15]. - The report categorizes moving averages into short-term, medium-term, and long-term, each serving different market analysis needs [16]. - The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is introduced as a significant technical analysis tool, consisting of the DIF line, DEA line, and MACD histogram, which helps investors grasp market trends [25][26]. - The report also covers the JAX (Jian Line) indicator, which combines price and volume data to assess medium to long-term trends and trading opportunities [34][35]. 2. Risk Management - The report introduces the Risk Degree Indicator (TR), which evaluates the relative position of assets in terms of risk, considering both spatial and temporal dimensions [45]. - The TR indicator operates within a normal range of 0 to 100, with higher values indicating increased investment risk and lower values suggesting reduced risk [50]. - Statistical analysis shows that the TR indicator effectively identifies local tops and bottoms in the A-share market, with a 45.74% probability of local lows occurring when TR is below 20 [50][51]. 3. Risk Trend Model - The report outlines a risk trend model that incorporates both momentum and risk dimensions to score assets, aiding in the development of timing strategies [44][49]. - It emphasizes the need for dynamic adjustments in parameters based on market conditions to enhance the accuracy of the JAX indicator [41][42]. 4. Timing Strategies - The report suggests constructing timing strategies based on historical data, with a focus on both periodic and non-periodic models to improve predictive effectiveness [44][49].

金十图示：2025年04月30日（周三）富时中国A50指数期货技术面一览（日图） | 每小时 | | 5小时 | 毎日 | 每周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总结 | 英出 | | | | | 移动平均线 | | 卖出 | 买入3 | 卖出 | | 技术指标 | | 卖出 | 买入2 | 卖出3 | | WilliamsRN1 | | | | -8.057 | | 甜买 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BullBear(13) | | | | -100.0720 | | 卖出 | | | 买入:2 总结:卖出 | 卖出:3 | | 中性:6 | | | | | | | | | << | TIX SHIF | | | | | 名称 | S3 | S2 | SI | 枢轴点 | R1 | R2 | R3 | | 经用 | 12977.6 | 13041.3 | 13093.6 | 13157.3 | . 13209.6 | 13273.3 | 13325.6 | | 斐波纳契 | 13041 ...

技术分析看黑色月报： 震荡走低小阴线，虽有反复势难改 黑色研究团队： 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货 时间：2025.04.28 目录 C o n t e n t s 1 螺纹低开阴锤头，前低一线有反复 2 铁矿震荡小阴线，破位下行是关键 3 双焦继续下跌势，焦炭阴星煤阴线 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 黑色技术分析月报要点： 【黑链指数】黑链指数代表了黑色整体走势，黑色月度上看报收小阴线，减仓放量，连续三个小阴线延续跌势，形成"三个红小兵" 的组合，且本月波幅及成交同步扩大，为推进信号，后市仍有下跌潜能。只是本月有减仓的行为，主要是交割月前一个月移仓换月、 散户退场以及短线价格反弹造成。 【螺纹加权】螺纹加权月线是一个新低阴锤头，减仓缩量，连续三个月以阴线报收，有三个红小兵之嫌。当月走势则是低开、震荡走 低，探底回升。整体呈现二次探底，在前低受支撑的状态，这也是继上个月破位下行，本月继续走低但有反抽的正常走势，从另一个 角度看的话，虽有反复，但整体走势已经进入下跌走势。 【铁矿加权】铁矿加权本月继上月低开低走小阴线，本月高开震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation below the 1.14 level as the market awaits key economic data from Europe and the US, with a critical directional choice looming due to a strong resistance level [1] Fundamental Analysis - The recent pressure on the US dollar is attributed to two main factors: a significant decline in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping from 4.59% to around 4.25%, and signs of easing in the Trump administration's trade policies, which have reduced the market's demand for the dollar as a safe haven [3] - The Eurozone's economic recovery shows structural divergence, with Italy's Q1 GDP growth at 0.3% (YoY 0.6%), slightly above market expectations, while Germany's GDP growth was only 0.2% (YoY -0.2%), highlighting the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector due to global trade weakness [3] - This divergence limits the upward potential of the Euro, although the European Central Bank's relatively hawkish stance compared to the Federal Reserve supports the exchange rate [3] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the Euro/USD has maintained an upward trend since the January 2025 low of 1.0177, reaching a peak of 1.1572 in April, but is now facing strong technical resistance at the Fibonacci 76.4% retracement level of 1.1683 [3] - The MACD indicator shows a clear bearish divergence, while the RSI is hovering between 60-68, suggesting a potential weakening of upward momentum [3] - On the weekly level, the 14-week RSI remains in an upward trend, but a close below 1.1271 this week would confirm a short-term top formation [4] Market Sentiment - Despite marginal improvements in Eurozone economic data, market sentiment remains cautious, with Italy's GDP exceeding expectations providing some support for the Euro, while concerns about the sustainability of the Eurozone recovery persist due to Germany's economic weakness [4] - CFTC positioning data shows an increase of 23,000 net long positions in the Euro as of April 23, but this has not broken through the 2024 high, indicating limited enthusiasm for chasing the rally [4] Monetary Policy Expectations - Diverging monetary policy expectations continue to develop, with the US core PCE price index expected to fall to 3.3% in March, leading to increased market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [5] - In contrast, European Central Bank officials have signaled a "no rush to cut rates" stance, with futures pricing indicating that the ECB's first rate cut is expected to occur about three months later than that of the Federal Reserve, providing mid-term support for the Euro [5] Market Strategy - In terms of technical strategy, if the exchange rate effectively breaks through the 1.1450-1.1500 resistance zone, bullish targets could be set at 1.1683, with key support levels at 1.1271 and the psychological level of 1.1000 [6] - Conversely, if the rate falls below the 1.1300 support, caution is warranted regarding potential pullback risks, with targets shifting to the 1.1271 and 1.1000 areas [6] - Key data points to monitor include the US April non-farm payroll report (expected to add 180,000 jobs), the Eurozone's April CPI preliminary value (expected YoY 2.4%), and the Federal Reserve's May interest rate decision statement, as these will be crucial catalysts for breaking the current fluctuation pattern [6]

第一，黄金方面：这一周下来，只有昨日布局失败，日内走的也相对揪心； 原本前日隔夜弱势收盘，第二天早间先拉升则要试探继续压制看跌，选择的位 置是3338一线，即昨日跌幅反抽618分割阻力，也是顶底转换位置，同时是日线趋势线反压点，多重共振，较好的参考点，结果一早的持续拉升力度超预 期，越过3338，冲击3366一线；然后计划等3380一线前日高点去继续尝试看跌，却不给机会；当午后冲高回落，重新打回反压线之下，则提示3334、3345分 批看跌，3345差两三美金未触及，3334么持仓七八个小时，一直无法很好下跌，美盘前保守选择了小赚出局，结果没多久，迎来30美金下挫；小时线大阴下 破，则尾盘再跟随一次短线看跌，依托618分割阻力3330下，结果目标差2美金未给到，后半夜慢慢震荡洗盘走高； 郑氏点银：黄金短期继续看调整不变，今晚二次看跌 第二，白银方面：日线大阳上攻，昨日研报计划回踩33顶底支撑跟随看涨，价格并未给到机会； 今日行情分析解读： 第一，黄金日线级别：昨日收报一根大阳，实体部分几乎吞没前一日阴K，表面上看似想要企稳样子，实际上它依然收盘未能突破站上MA5日，同时也处于 3057-3245前几处历史高位 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market sentiment, indicating a neutral summary with a mix of buy and sell signals across different time frames [2][5]. - Technical indicators show a strong sell recommendation overall, with specific indicators like RSI and MACD suggesting bearish trends [5][6]. - Moving averages indicate a sell signal for longer periods (MA20, MA50) while shorter periods (MA5, MA10) show mixed signals [4][5]. Group 2 - The support and resistance levels are outlined, with key levels identified for potential trading strategies [6]. - The article highlights the volatility in the market, as indicated by the ATR value, suggesting a need for cautious trading [5]. - The overall market condition is described as neutral, with a balance of buy and sell signals across various indicators [2][6].

金十图示：2025年04月15日（周二）香港恒生指数期货技术面一览（一小时图） | 时期 | 简单移动平均线 | 指数移动平均线 | | --- | --- | --- | | MA5 | 21467.7 | 21442.7 | | | 卖出 | 卖用 | | MA10 | 21491.7 | 21455.7 | | | 卖出 | 菜出 | | MA20 | 21449.2 | 21374.2 | | | 卖出 | 买人 | | 每小时 | | 5小时 | 每日 | 每周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总结 | 英出 | | | | | 移动平均线 | | 卖出 | 买入5 | 卖出7 | | 技术指标 | | 卖出 | 买入2 | 卖出5 | | MA50 | | 21029.0 | 21050.6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 求人 | 求人 | | MA100 | | 20515.9 | 21115.7 | | | | 买入 | 求人 | | MA200 | | 21703.1 | 21598.3 | | | | 英H | ...

金十图示：2025年04月11日（周五）香港恒生指数期货技术面一览（日图） | 时期 | 简单移动平均线 | 指数移动平均线 | | --- | --- | --- | | MA5 | 20163.1 | 20924.3 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA10 | 21635.0 | 21474.9 | | | 卖出 | 卖出 | | MA20 | 22847.5 | 22199.3 | | | 卖出 | 卖出 | | 每小时 | | 5小时 | 毎日 | 每周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总结 | 強力卖出 | | | | | 移动平均线 | | 卖出 | 买入4 | 卖出8 | | 技术指标 | | 强力卖出 | 买入2 | 卖出8 | | ะ | 技术指标 >> | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年04月12日 北京时间03:00 | | | | 名称 | 价格 | 动作 | | RSI(14) N10. | 39.553 | 卖出 | | STOCH(9,6) | 76.439 | 买入 | | STOCHRSI(14) | ...