1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 3.50%. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production schedule will increase, the demand recovery will be at a low level, and the cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 11 - contract also declined this week, with a weekly decline of 2.75%. It is predicted that the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable, and the disk is expected to have a neutral sideways adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, remaining unchanged. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% increase. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory is 226,000 tons; in the organic silicon sector, the inventory is 73,200 tons, and the production profit is - 708 yuan/ton; in the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 72,000 tons [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, remaining unchanged; the sample enterprise inventory is 162,500 tons, a 7.11% decrease; the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% increase. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease; the battery cell production is in a loss state, and the component production is profitable. The production schedules for September of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are expected to increase [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 226,000 tons, a 10.78% increase, at a historically high level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises, as well as the registered warehouse receipt volume [18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, the monthly production by specification, and the start - up rate trends [20][21][22]. - **Cost**: It includes the electricity price trends in main production areas, the silicon stone price trends in main production places, the graphite electrode price trends, and the price trends of some reducing agents [25]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Both the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc. [34][36][41]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It examines the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (in the automotive and wheel hub sectors) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][49]. - **Polysilicon**: It studies the cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation related to polysilicon [52][55][58][61][64][67][70][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [75][77]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract declined, and it is predicted to have a narrow - range sideways adjustment next week [78][79].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being respectively: short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak. The overall view is that it will operate weakly due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.51% to 2364 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday, but the continued rebound was blocked by the upper 20 - day moving average [5]. Market Driving Logic - Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure has led to a downward shift in the price center. After the previous continuous decline in methanol futures prices, the bearish sentiment has been released. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. Definition of Market Trends - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it's the previous trading day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price on the current day to calculate the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillatory strength/weakness only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4905 - 4965. The market is affected by multiple factors, including supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and export trends [9][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [13] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7] 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 39.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 76.92%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 72.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7][8] 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 30.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2349.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.40%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Other Aspects - **Basis**: On September 25, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 135 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% [11] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [11] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market shows a mixed situation with a generally bearish domestic fundamental outlook but some bullish factors. The overall supply in the domestic market exceeds demand significantly, and it is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today. The main influencing factors are the strong international prices and weak domestic demand, and the key risk lies in changes in export policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating weakly recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply in the domestic urea market still significantly exceeds demand, the theoretical export profit has continued to reach new highs, but the export volume has decreased due to policy and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium/discount ratio of 3.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (+30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (+30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3210 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1674 (+1), the basis is 56 (+29), the price of the UR05 contract is 1727 (+3), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (+2) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), the UR manufacturer inventory is 95.7 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 46.4 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2023, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes. For example, in 2023, the production capacity was 3893.5, the production volume was 3193.59, the net import volume was 293.13, the apparent consumption was 3486.72, and the actual consumption was 3486.69. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For coking coal, under the support of pre - holiday rigid demand replenishment, the coking coal price may continue to operate at a high level in the short term. However, due to the slowdown of downstream procurement rhythm, it is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term. The factors affecting the price include the increase in pig iron production and limited supply increment on the positive side, and the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices on the negative side [3][5]. - For coke, the continuous strengthening of raw coking coal prices provides strong support for coke costs. The coke supply remains stable. Driven by pre - holiday stockpiling, the downstream rigid demand has increased, but the terminal consumption is still weak. It is expected that coke will remain stable in the short term. The positive factors are the increase in pig iron production and blast furnace operating rate, while the negative factors are the squeezed profit space of steel mills and the partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - The document provides the spot price quotations of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on September 25, 2025, including the prices of various coal types at different ports [10]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Production and Utilization Rate - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4888 - 4950. [10] - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [15] - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. [14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. [14][15] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in the production schedule. [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 39.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 76.92%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 72.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish. [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 30.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2339.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The production schedule may be under pressure. [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 129 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The ethylene factory inventory was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. The social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.6 Market - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. It is neutral. [12] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position decreased. It is bearish. [12] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide method weakened, and the cost of ethylene method strengthened, with the overall cost weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall soybean market is under pressure, and the price center of the soybean system is expected to decline. The domestic supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is relatively loose, and the market will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to short soybean meal at high points, conduct M11 - 1 positive arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle options strategy [4][5][9][10]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market oscillated. Due to Argentina's export tariff cut, soybean export pressure increased, but the market reaction was limited. Domestic soybean meal's decline narrowed today after a significant drop yesterday, while rapeseed meal's decline widened. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthened, and the inter - monthly spreads of both continued to decline [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The ending stocks of the old - crop balance sheet were slightly raised. The new - crop supply increased slightly due to a slight increase in planted area, offsetting a small decrease in yield per unit. If exports do not improve, the market may face downward pressure, and the upside is also limited [5]. - **South American Soybeans**: The supply - demand of South American old - crop soybeans is relatively loose. The production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume by 8.21 million tons. Brazil's farmers' slow selling progress may keep prices under pressure, although there is optimism about future exports [5]. - **International Soybean Meal**: The supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in the crush volume of major producing areas, while imports of major importing countries only increase slightly [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic supply of soybean meal is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and inventories. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure remains, although the deep - decline space is limited [4][7]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiations lacked clear macro - guidance. The market is concerned about supply uncertainties, but the demand for US soybeans in the long - term may prevent a sharp decline in prices [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - Argentina's tariff cut brings uncertainties. If more soybeans are exported, the pressure will be obvious. The international soybean market supply is loose, and the upside of US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. Domestic soybean meal has inventory pressure, and the inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may face further downward pressure [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short soybean meal at high points. - **Arbitrage**: M11 - 1 positive arbitrage. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [10]. 3.6 Soybean Crush Profit - The crush profit varies by origin and shipping date. Argentina's November shipment has a positive change in crush profit, while Brazil's crush profit shows different trends depending on the shipping month [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The processing loss of asphalt decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, lowering supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is flat; with the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. Different types of asphalt and related product开工率 show mixed trends, with most below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. - **Lido**: The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support [12]. - **Risks**: High - priced supply has insufficient demand; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price and the profit difference trend between asphalt and coking products [13][15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased, and the inventory of different types decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.14%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [17]. - **Price Trends**: The report provides trends of asphalt basis, spreads between main contracts, asphalt - crude oil price, crude oil cracking spread, and the ratio of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [19][22][25]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit difference between coking and asphalt show certain trends over time [37][40]. - **Supply**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil and Venezuelan crude oil production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss [44][46][49]. - **Inventory**: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export**: The report shows the trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79]. - **Demand**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [80][83][86]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, showing data such as monthly production, import, export, and inventory [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4907 - 4969 [6][11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease, and the scheduled production will increase slightly to 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, which is lower than the historical average [7] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, which is lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin has different changes, with some higher and some lower than the historical average [7][9] - **Cost side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 30.80% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 2.00% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2379.25 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 2.00% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average [7] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The factory inventory of calcium carbide method was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The factory inventory of ethylene method was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% [7] - **Market situation**: On September 22, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. The main position was net short, and the short position increased [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including various indicators such as different prices, spreads, production, inventory, and operating rates, and their changes compared with the previous period [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report shows the basis trend of PVC futures over a long - term period, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [16] - **Price and trading volume trend**: It presents the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025 [20] - **Spread analysis**: Analyzes the spread of the main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Aspects - **Calcium carbide method - Related raw materials**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method for PVC production [25][28][30][32] - **PVC supply trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, maintenance volume, and profit of PVC production by calcium carbide method and ethylene method [37][40] - **Demand trend**: Examines the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the situation of related downstream products such as paste resin and the real - estate market and some macro - economic indicators [42][46][53] - **Inventory situation**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, factory inventory of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [58] - **Ethylene method - Related aspects**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and some price spreads in the ethylene method for PVC production [60] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63]