证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 估值周观察(12月第1期) 韩国股市领涨，A股结构分化 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.12.1-2025.12.5）海外市场涨多跌少，估值随股价小幅变动。韩国显著领跑；美小幅走高；欧元区分化；香港涨幅居中。 估值随股价小幅变动。韩国综合指数PE扩张3.5x，日经225的PE扩张1.59x，其余主要指数PE变动均低于0.5x。从估值分位数看，标普 500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和道琼斯工业指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.12.1-2025.12.5)，A股核心宽基温和上涨，估值微幅扩张。具体来看，规模上，仅中证100（+1.61%）和上证50 （+1.09%）涨幅超过 ...

当地时间12月5日，美股三大指数均小幅收涨，道指涨0.22%；纳指涨0.31%；标普500指数涨0.19%。 大型科技股多数上涨，博通涨超2%，谷歌、Meta涨超1%，苹果、英伟达跌幅不足1%。存储概念、零 售百货涨幅居前，SanDisk涨超7%，美光科技涨超4%，梅西百货、迪拉德百货涨超2%。加密货币概 念、综合油气跌幅居前，Strive跌超7%，英国石油跌超3%，道达尔、埃尼石油、Circle跌超2%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.29%，热门中概股多数上涨，百度涨超5%，万国数据涨超4%，小鹏汽 车、爱奇艺、好未来涨超2%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.41%，报15248点。 贵金属市场出现剧烈波动，现货黄金一度涨超1.2%、随后转跌失守4200美元。 Coinglass数据显示，24小时，加密货币全网共有133381人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为4.25亿美元（约合人民 币30亿元）。 | 5 5 3 0 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | 4小时爆仓 | $4192.95万 | $486.15万 | | 多車 | 多車 | $393.48万 | $32 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver: ☆☆☆, representing a clearer long/short trend, with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View - Overnight, the US weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, far below expectations and hitting a new low since September 2022, alleviating concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market. A December interest rate cut is largely priced in, and precious metals are mainly in a volatile state. Precious metals as a whole should not be chased higher before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. There is a supply gap for platinum this year, and the supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum outperforming palladium in terms of trend. Tonight, attention should be paid to the US September PCE data [1] - The White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the Fed should cut interest rates at next week's meeting, predicting a 25 - basis - point cut, and hopes to "bring interest rates much lower" in the long run [2] - The World Gold Council stated that gold prices may fluctuate within a range next year, and a continued strong performance is not ruled out [2] - US Trade Representative Greer said Trump is considering withdrawing from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement next year, and the possibility of breaking the tripartite tie is not excluded [2] 3. Other Key Information - Red stars represent a predicted trending up, green stars represent a predicted trending down. One star means being bullish/bearish, indicating a driving force for rising/falling but poor operability on the market. Two stars mean holding long/short positions, with a clearer rising/falling trend and the market situation fermenting. Three stars represent an even clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently. White stars mean the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the market and it is advisable to wait and see [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a strong performance in the morning session, with all major indices rising significantly, indicating positive investor sentiment and market momentum [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.13%, closing at 3880.22 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.04% [1] - The ChiNext Index experienced a notable gain of 2.6% [1] - The North Star 50 Index saw an increase of 1.65% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11,831 billion yuan, which is an increase of 1,506 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,800 stocks in the market recorded gains [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included CPO, precious metals, semiconductors, and consumer electronics, which led the market in terms of growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares are experiencing significant gains, with major indices showing substantial increases in early trading on November 25, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by specific sectors [1] Market Performance - As of 10:44 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.15% - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.23% - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 3.12% [1] Leading Sectors - The sectors leading the market include: - Computing hardware - AI applications - Precious metals - Quantum technology [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both rising over 2%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by over 1% [1] Sector Performance - The computing hardware sector showed strong gains, with TeFa Information achieving three consecutive trading limit ups [1] - The AI application concept experienced a resurgence, with Shida Group achieving four consecutive trading limit ups and Huanrui Century achieving three consecutive trading limit ups [1] - The precious metals sector saw a rise, with Western Gold leading the gains [1] - The anti-influenza concept continued to rise, with stocks such as Jindike, Hainan Haiyao, Guangji Pharmaceutical, and Te Yi Pharmaceutical hitting the trading limit [1] - Conversely, the China Shipbuilding Industry Group experienced a pullback, with China Shipbuilding Han Guang leading the decline [1] - The aquaculture sector adjusted, with Zhongshui Fishery hitting the trading limit down [1] Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market showed a bullish trend, with nearly 4,900 stocks rising [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,880.22, up 1.13%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 12,841.60, up 2.04%; and the ChiNext Index was at 3,005.23, up 2.60% [1] - On the plate, F5G concept, CPO, and optical fiber concepts led the gains, while the China Shipbuilding Industry Group, airport and shipping, and aquaculture sectors saw the largest declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a strong performance on November 25, with all three major indices rising significantly during the morning session, indicating positive market sentiment and investor confidence [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.04% [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 2.60% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Computing hardware stocks surged, with companies like Dekeli and Guangku Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - AI applications, precious metals, and gaming sectors were among the top performers in terms of growth [1]

Core Points - A-shares major indices experienced a rally, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.21%, the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.69%, and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.52% [1] - Over 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets saw gains, indicating a broad market uptrend [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3863.40, up by 26.64 points (+0.69%) [2] - ChiNext Index: 2993.64, up by 64.59 points (+2.21%) [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 12775.86, up by 190.78 points (+1.52%) [2] - Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index: 1311.73, up by 15.13 points (+1.17%) [2] - North Star 50 Index: 1403.78, up by 17.74 points (+1.28%) [2] - CSI 300 Index: 4484.70, up by 36.65 points (+0.82%) [2] - F Class 50 Index: 2960.61, up by 10.05 points (+0.34%) [2] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included computing hardware, AI applications, precious metals, and quantum technology, reflecting strong investor interest in these areas [1]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4072.85 with no change [1] - London Silver's latest price is 48.91 with no change [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1522.00, down 23.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1388.00, down 16.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 58.84, up 0.78 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10777.00, up 101.50 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 100.20, up 0.05 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.15 with no change [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.31 with no change [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 156.92, up 0.51 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.82 with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14329.69, up 0.24 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 532.30, up 13.03 [2] - Gold ETF's latest position is 1040.86, up 0.29 [2] - Silver ETF's latest position is 15257.92 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 822.42 with no change [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with no change [2]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4060.85, with a change of -11.65 [2] - London Silver's latest price is 50.30, with a change of -0.76 [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1537.00, with a change of 5.00 [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1385.00, with a change of 0.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 60.74, with a change of 0.83 [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 10682.00, with a change of -130.00 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1041.43, with a change of 0.00 [3] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 0.00 [3] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [3] Group 3: Other Information - The data sources of the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [7]