2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1126.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.27%；焦炭主力合 J2605 | | | | | 收于 1685.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.12%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力收于 1134.5，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘上涨 0.27%，焦炭主力合约收于 1694.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.36% | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， | | | | | 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。今年降准降息还有一定 | | | | | 的空间 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2][13]. - The financial support for equipment renewal using 936 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will drive total investment over 460 billion yuan [3][13]. - The implementation period of the personal consumption loan fiscal discount policy will be extended to December 31, 2026, and the actual interest rate for consumers may drop to around 2% [2][13]. - The global silver market is in a structural deficit, and industrial demand for silver is expected to grow in the next five years [6]. - The U.S. natural gas price has risen significantly due to cold weather, and the global LNG supply is expected to increase by 10% this year [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP growth rate at constant prices was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and last year's 5.4% [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, slightly higher than the previous month's 49.8% and the same as last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.2%, slightly higher than the previous month's 50.0% but lower than last year's 52.2% [1]. - The social financing scale in December 2025 was 220.75 billion yuan, lower than the previous month's 352.99 billion yuan and last year's 285.37 billion yuan [1]. - The CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year, turning positive from the previous month's - 0.3% [1]. - The PPI in December 2025 decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, a smaller decline compared to the previous month's - 2.3% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2]. - The personal consumption loan fiscal discount policy will be extended to December 31, 2026, and the actual interest rate may drop to around 2% [2]. - 936 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal have been allocated, driving total investment over 460 billion yuan [3]. - In Q4 2025, FOF continued to prefer low - risk products, with short - term bond ETFs as the top - held variety, and shifted from gold ETFs to gold stock ETFs [3]. - On January 22, 33 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 36 had negative basis [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On January 23, spot gold reached a new high of $4,963 per ounce, with a 0.5% intraday increase, and silver price also hit a new high [5]. - As of January 21, copper inventory reached a new high in over 8 months, while lead, tin, zinc, and nickel inventories decreased [5]. - Global silver industrial demand is expected to grow in the next five years, and the market has been in a structural deficit for five years [6]. - The Q4 sales of Alcoa were $3.45 billion, and it expects alumina and aluminum shipments in 2026 [6]. - As of January 22, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.19% [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The CAPSTONE copper mine in Chile has been shut down due to a strike [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - U.S. natural gas futures have risen by 81% in three days due to cold weather [8]. - The U.S. energy minister calls for doubling global oil production [8]. - Ukraine has purchased most of the natural gas needed for the 2025/26 winter [8]. - The global LNG supply is expected to increase by 10% this year [8]. - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased by 120 billion cubic feet in the week ending January 16 [8]. - U.S. EIA crude inventory increased by 3.6 million barrels last week [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Draft standards for pre - made dishes will be open for public comment [10]. - U.S. exporters sold 192,350 metric tons of soybeans to an unknown destination [10]. - Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 177.124 million tons, and exports in 2026 are expected to reach 111.5 million tons [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 22, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 3.09 billion yuan [12]. - On January 23, the central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [13]. - 936 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal have been allocated, driving total investment over 460 billion yuan [13]. - The personal consumption loan fiscal discount policy will be extended to December 31, 2026, and the actual interest rate may drop to around 2% [13]. - China will take measures to safeguard the rights of Chinese enterprises if the EU discriminates against them [14]. - In December 2025, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group was 16.5%, 6.9% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [15]. - The second - round land contract will be extended by 30 years in 7 provinces, and China's grain output reached a new high in 2025 [15]. - The second - hand housing market in some areas has shown a warming trend at the beginning of 2026 [15]. - Trump said the Greenland agreement will give the U.S. military access, and threatened to retaliate if European countries sell U.S. assets [16]. - The U.S. Q3 2025 GDP grew by 4.4% annually, and inflation indicators met expectations [16]. - The market expects the Bank of Japan to maintain the policy rate at 0.75%, but there may be a hawkish stance [16]. - Japanese government bonds rebounded, but the selling pressure remains [17]. - There are some bond - related events, such as corporate restructuring investment and bond redemption [17]. - Some overseas credit ratings have been adjusted [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market adjusted slightly, with interest - rate bond yields rising slightly [19]. - Treasury bond futures declined slightly, and the money market tightened slightly [20]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, Vanke bonds were strong, while industrial and financial bonds were weak [20]. - The convertible bond index rose, and some convertible bonds had significant price changes [21]. - Most money market interest rates rose [21]. - Shibor short - term varieties showed mixed performance [22]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase rates mostly rose [22]. - The yields of some financial bonds were announced [23]. - European and U.S. bond yields showed different trends [23][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 22 points, and the central parity rate was adjusted down 5 points [25]. - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.50%, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The central bank's balance sheet expanded in 2025, and the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts can be focused on when MLF and reverse repurchase mature [26]. - The bond investment in 2016 - 2017 provides lessons on risk management [27]. - The bond market has been strong recently, and different bond investment strategies are recommended [27]. - The U.S. and Japanese bond markets are volatile, and financial suppression policies may be used [27]. - The recent rise in U.S. bond yields is due to multiple factors, and there are investment opportunities after the pressure is released [28]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - 194 bonds will be listed on January 23 [29]. - 128 bonds will be issued on January 23 [29]. - 131 bonds will be settled on January 23 [29]. - 196 bonds will pay principal and interest on January 23 [30]. 3.4 Stock Market News - On Thursday, the A - share market was narrowly sorted, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.01% [31]. - The Hong Kong stock market was narrowly sorted, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.17% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.28% [31].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced narrow fluctuations with a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.58 points, up 0.14%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 14327.05 points, up 0.5% [1][10] - Among the 30 sectors, 21 sectors saw an increase, with oil and petrochemicals, building materials, and telecommunications leading the gains, while automotive, pharmaceuticals, and banking sectors experienced significant declines [1][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 27,164 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, the S&P 500 up 0.55%, and the Nasdaq up 0.91% [2][10] - The U.S. technology index rose by 1.47%, with Facebook increasing by over 5% and Tesla rising by more than 4% [2][10] - Most Chinese concept stocks also saw gains, with Xiaoma Zhixing up nearly 6% and Canadian Solar up over 5% [2][10] Key News Highlights - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring a reasonable recovery in prices [3][12] - Six major banks collectively announced the implementation of the latest fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [3][14] - The market regulatory authority issued a warning regarding mergers and acquisitions in the public utility sector, marking a significant regulatory action [3][18] - The public fund's fourth-quarter report for 2025 has been disclosed, with a focus on electronic and power equipment sectors [3][20] - Important global economic data has been released, indicating various trends in different markets [3][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term double - silicon steel mills are gradually implemented with a decline. The overall fundamentals are weak recently. As the Spring Festival holiday in February approaches, the pre - holiday demand release expectation for silicon manganese will gradually decrease, and the bargaining sentiment in the silicon manganese market is rising. The supply level remains at a relatively high position. The short - term disk shows strong support below and has a slight rebound sign, mainly fluctuating following the black market trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, the main contract of manganese silicon SM2603 closed at 5,814 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase compared to the opening of the day session. The main contract of ferrosilicon SF2603 closed at 5,610 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase compared to the opening of the day session [1] 3.2 Important Information - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - This week, the approved production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.3%, a 0.9% increase month - on - month. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.994 million tons, a 17,000 - ton increase month - on - month, and the raw coal inventory was 5.605 million tons, a 106,000 - ton increase month - on - month [1] - About 20% of short - process steel enterprises in Guangdong will gradually stop production for holidays in mid - to - late January. More than 60% of short - process steel enterprises choose to gradually stop production for holidays in early February. Most steel enterprises will gradually resume production in early March [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The short - term double - silicon steel mills are gradually implemented with a decline. The overall fundamentals are weak recently. As the Spring Festival holiday in February approaches, the pre - holiday demand release expectation for silicon manganese will gradually decrease, and the bargaining sentiment in the silicon manganese market is rising. In the production areas, the previous production in the north has been put into operation and produced iron one after another. There is no obvious decline in the supply side's start - up recently, and the overall supply level remains at a relatively high position [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The short - term disk shows strong support below and has a slight rebound sign, mainly fluctuating following the black market trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of financial policies in supporting China's economic modernization and outlines the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) strategies for implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation of Monetary Policy - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, focusing on creating a favorable monetary environment for high-quality development [2]. - The PBOC plans to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to ensure ample liquidity and align social financing and money supply growth with economic growth targets [2][3]. - Specific measures include lowering the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the quotas for rural and small enterprise loans by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Financial System Development - The PBOC aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to support high-quality financial development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. - Key initiatives include optimizing the monetary policy target system, enhancing the market-based interest rate formation mechanism, and improving the structure of monetary policy tools to better guide financial institutions [4][5]. - The PBOC will also focus on strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks and expanding the coverage of macro-prudential management to include new financial sectors [5]. Group 3: Support for Real Economy - The PBOC will enhance financial support for key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, which are crucial for high-quality development [6][7]. - Specific actions include establishing a 500 billion yuan re-loan for consumer services and elderly care, increasing re-loan quotas for technology innovation, and improving financing accessibility for small and micro enterprises [6][7]. - Collaboration with various government departments will be emphasized to improve the effectiveness and convenience of financial services [7]. Group 4: Global Financial Governance - The PBOC will actively promote global financial governance reforms and international financial cooperation, advocating for a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [8][10]. - Efforts will include deepening institutional openness in the financial sector, advancing the internationalization of the renminbi, and enhancing cross-border payment systems [9][10]. - The PBOC will also engage in international macro policy coordination and contribute to the reform of the International Monetary Fund to enhance the representation of developing economies [10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [4][14] - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% and retail sales growing by 3.7% [4][14] - The total population in China is expected to decrease by 3.39 million in 2025, with a birth rate of 7.92 million and a death rate of 11.31 million [4][14] Group 2 - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4%, while steel production will increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - Steel exports are projected to reach a record high of 11.9019 million tons in 2025, marking a 7.5% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The average profit margin for 247 steel mills is reported at 40.69%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [5][15] Group 3 - The total inventory of five major steel products is 12.5708 million tons, with an increase of 10.07% week-on-week [5][15] - Rebar production has increased by 9.25 million tons to 199.55 million tons, while hot-rolled steel production has slightly decreased to 6.206 million tons [5][15] - The market for rebar is experiencing weak demand despite increased supply, leading to a continued narrow fluctuation in steel prices [5][15][16] Group 4 - The hot-rolled steel production has decreased slightly due to maintenance at one steel plant in North China and slow recovery at another in East China, with total inventory decreasing at a historically high rate for the lunar new year period [6][16] - Traders are adopting a cautious approach with low inventory and quick turnover strategies, anticipating continued weak supply and demand [6][16] - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3100-3200 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range between 3250-3350 yuan/ton [7][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Thursday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The global iron ore shipments decreased this period, the arrival volume declined, domestic mine production increased, and port imported iron ore inventories continued to accumulate. The daily average pig iron output increased, and the steel mill profit rate improved. Short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Thursday [1] Important Information - In December 2025, the output of new energy vehicles was 1.791 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%; the output from January to December was 16.524 million, a year - on - year increase of 25.1% [1] - In December 2025, China's raw coal output was 437.035 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%; the cumulative output from January to December was 4.831782 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative raw coal output in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi increased by 2.1%, - 1.0% and 2.9% year - on - year respectively [1] - In December 2025, China's excavator output was 37,305 units, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%. In 2025, China's excavator output was 379,643 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.6% [1] - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 380 tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 12.5708 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,700 tons, an increase of 0.8%; the weekly consumption of five major products was 8.0952 million tons, among which the building material consumption decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the plate consumption decreased by 2.6% week - on - week [1] Market Logic - At the industrial level, the global iron ore shipments decreased this period, the arrival volume declined. Domestic mine production increased, and port imported iron ore inventories continued to accumulate. The daily average pig iron output this period was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons. The steel mill profit rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.9% [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set. The support level is 770, and the resistance level is 844 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a favorable monetary and financial environment to support high-quality economic development in China, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and recent central economic work meetings [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [2]. - The PBOC plans to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and align social financing and money supply growth with economic growth targets [2][3]. - Specific measures include lowering the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the quotas for agricultural and small enterprise loans [3]. Group 2: Financial System Development - The PBOC aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system as strategic initiatives for high-quality financial development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - Key areas of focus include optimizing the monetary policy target system, improving the mechanism for basic currency issuance, and enhancing the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms [5]. Group 3: Support for Real Economy - The PBOC will enhance financial support for key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, which are crucial for promoting high-quality development [7][8]. - Specific initiatives include a dedicated 500 billion yuan for consumer and elderly care loans, increasing the quotas for technology innovation loans, and establishing a 1 trillion yuan special loan for private enterprises [7][8]. Group 4: Global Financial Governance - The PBOC will actively promote global financial governance reform and international financial cooperation, emphasizing multilateralism and the construction of a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [9][10]. - Efforts will include deepening institutional openness in the financial sector, enhancing the cross-border payment system for the yuan, and participating in international financial governance and cooperation [10].

Important Market News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow up 0.63%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.55%. Tech stocks saw significant gains, with Meta rising 5.7% [2] - International oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude down 1.95% to $59.44 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.74% to $63.41 per barrel. Gold and silver prices reached new historical highs, with spot gold hitting $4928 [3] Industry Insights - Beijing ChuanYueZhe Manned Space Technology Co., Ltd. held a global launch for its commercial manned spacecraft "ChuanYueZhe No. 1 (CYZ1)", with over 20 space tourists already booked for flights expected to commence in 2028. The space economy is projected to become a new industry sector, with satellite communication expected to exceed 200 billion to 400 billion yuan by 2030 [4] - Alibaba Cloud launched new products at the 2026 PolarDB Developer Conference, including AI data lake capabilities. The rising memory prices, which have increased by 30% to 40%, are expected to continue to rise by two to three times, benefiting the storage industry [5] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be the "mass production year" for humanoid robots, with significant delivery volumes expected. Companies like Yuzhu Technology project over 5,500 humanoid robots to be delivered in 2025, indicating a shift from technology exploration to commercial application [6]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [1][2] - On January 23, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding methods [2] Food Safety and Drug Retail - The State Council's Food Safety Office and other departments will publicly solicit opinions on national standards for prepared dishes, aiming to modify and improve them based on feedback [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released guidelines to promote high-quality development in the drug retail industry, encouraging accurate collection and verification of drug traceability codes and promoting horizontal mergers and acquisitions among retail enterprises [4] Technology and Innovation - Fudan University researchers have successfully realized large-scale integrated circuit preparation within soft, elastic polymer fibers, turning the concept of "fiber chips" into reality [7] - Shanghai Suiruan Technology Co., a domestic GPU manufacturer, has received approval for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan [10] Financial Services - Major Chinese banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, and others, have announced the extension of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies until December 31, 2026, expanding the subsidy scope and removing restrictions on single loans of 50,000 yuan and above [8] Corporate Developments - Zhaoyi Innovation has forecasted a net profit of approximately 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 46% [12] - Xiaomi Group announced a share repurchase plan of up to 2.5 billion Hong Kong dollars, with plans to cancel the repurchased shares [13] - Mingyang Smart Energy is planning to acquire 100% equity of Dehua Chip, with stock resumption [17] Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.55%, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.59% [18] Global Events - Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated progress in peace negotiations, with a trilateral team meeting involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine expected in the coming days [19]