下一步，中国人民银行广东省分行将根据市场需求情况，不断优化政策资金投放模式，为广东经济高质 量发展注入更多政策动能。 今年以来，中国人民银行广东省分行通过设立100亿"焕新贷"支农支小再贷款专项额度，引导广东金融 资源聚集优化消费供给，激发消费活力。截至6月末，已累计发放"焕新贷"支农支小再贷款100亿元，带 动金融机构向消费品制造和服务消费领域投放信贷资金465亿元。 （文章来源：广州日报） 7月16日，广州日报全媒体记者从中国人民银行广东省分行获悉，今年以来，中国人民银行广东省分行 全力贯彻适度宽松的货币政策，创设"三个100亿""粤科融""焕新贷""粤贸贷"支农支小再贷款、再贴现 专项额度，加大对科创、消费、外贸等重点领域的信贷支持，持续赋能广东新质生产力动力升级。2025 年至今，中国人民银行广东省分行设立的"三个100亿"支农支小再贷款、再贴现专项额度带动金融机构 向科技、消费、外贸三大重点领域发放贷款929亿元，在助力广东新质生产力加速发展方面发挥了积极 作用。 今年以来，中国人民银行广东省分行累计发放"粤贸贷"支农支小再贷款50亿元，带动金融机构向外贸领 域投放信贷资金100亿元。金融机构表示， ...

Group 1 - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in the first half of the year is approximately 3.3%, which is about 45 basis points lower than the same period last year [3] - Some banks are offering credit loans below 3%, and mortgage loan rates have dropped to around 2.3%, marking the lowest levels in recent years [3][4] - A variety of banks have introduced operating loan products with annual interest rates of 3% or lower, with some rates even falling to 2.6% after applying discounts [3] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and optimizing credit structure [2][5] - Future corporate loan rates are expected to continue to decline due to potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policies and ongoing efforts by the central bank to consolidate macroeconomic control [4] - The financial policies are showing positive effects, with credit growth and structural optimization observed in June and the first half of the year, supporting the recovery of the real economy [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - financial**: Consider gradually taking profits or adopting covered strategies for stock index futures; pay attention to the tax - period capital situation, and the bond market may rebound [11][12]. - **Black metals**: The black market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term; do not chase long on the double - silicon futures, and focus on shorting at high levels in the medium term; soda ash may rise in the short term, and avoid short - selling; glass can be considered to go long at low levels [14][17][18]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short at high levels; lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term; industrial silicon may maintain a strong shock, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [20][21][22]. - **Agricultural products**: For cotton, short at high levels; for sugar, it may fall in the short term; for eggs, short on rebounds; for corn, remain on the sidelines; for live pigs, short the near - month contracts [24][26][28][29][30]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern and may fluctuate; fuel oil and asphalt follow the trend of oil prices; plastics can be considered to hold put options or short slightly; rubber can be short - term long on pullbacks; methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly; caustic soda should maintain a short - selling mindset; for the polyester industry chain, short at high levels or long the bottle chip processing fee; LPG futures are easy to fall and difficult to rise [31][33][35][38][39][41][42]. - **Others**: For pulp, observe the inventory reduction and spot trading; for logs, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate; for urea, consider buying at low levels; for synthetic rubber, be cautious when chasing high [44][45][46]. 3. Summaries according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - China's social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in H1 2025, and RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - On July 15, the central bank will conduct a 1.4 trillion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation [7]. - In H1 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In June, exports of rare earths were 7,742.2 tons, and cumulative exports from January to June were 32,569.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% [7]. - Over 80% of surveyed economists believe that the Q2 economic growth rate will not be lower than 5%, and they expect consumption to continue to stabilize in H2, while the property market sales may decline [8]. - Trump urges Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, otherwise a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed. He also plans to impose new tariffs on more than 20 countries from August 1 and a 50% tariff on all imported copper [8][9]. - OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, and the demand in Q3 is expected to be "very strong" [9]. 3.2 Macro - financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures The Shanghai Composite Index has slowed its rise after breaking through 3,500 points. Given the release of macro data and the disclosure of semi - annual reports, there may be a need to take profits on short - term long positions [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations maintain net investment, and the bond market may rebound due to the correction of capital and regulatory pricing [12]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore The black market is on a shock - rebound trend due to positive policy expectations. In the short - to - medium term, policies are expected to be more favorable, but overall, stability is the main focus. Downstream steel demand is seasonally weakening, while supply is expected to remain high. The price of raw materials may boost market sentiment [14]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke In the short term, the double - coke market may continue to rebound, but in the medium term, it may remain weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [15]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys Do not chase long on the double - silicon futures, and focus on shorting at high levels in the medium term, as the fundamentals are expected to weaken [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass Soda ash may rise in the short term, and avoid short - selling; glass can be considered to go long at low levels, and pay attention to the market situation in Hubei [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Aluminum and Alumina For aluminum, short at high levels due to increased inventory and weak consumption; for alumina, short at high levels as supply is expected to be abundant [20]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and the price may fall after a rapid increase, but the downside is limited [21]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon It is expected to maintain a strong shock, but there is no continuous upward driving force [22]. 3.4.4 Polysilicon It is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, but pay attention to the implementation of policies and the generation of warehouse receipts [23]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton The cotton price may rebound in the short term, but there are long - term concerns about demand. Short at high levels [24]. 3.5.2 Sugar The domestic sugar price may fall in the short term due to expected increased supply and lower import costs [26]. 3.5.3 Eggs The egg price may enter a seasonal rising period, but the increase during the Mid - Autumn Festival may be limited. Short on rebounds [28]. 3.5.4 Corn Maintain a wait - and - see attitude as the price is oscillating. There is a chance of valuation repair after the downturn [29]. 3.5.5 Live Pigs Short the near - month contracts, as the supply is expected to increase and the demand is weak [30]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern and may fluctuate due to uncertain demand during the peak season [31]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the current focus is on tariffs and short - term supply - demand fundamentals [33]. 3.6.3 Plastics Short - term sentiment may support prices, but the supply - demand situation is weak. Consider holding put options or a slightly short position [33]. 3.6.4 Rubber It may be slightly strong in the short term due to improved market sentiment. Short - term long on pullbacks [35]. 3.6.5 Methanol It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider short - selling after a rebound or holding put options [38]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda Maintain a short - selling mindset as the 09 contract may face pressure [39]. 3.6.7 Asphalt It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil. The current focus is on tariffs and short - term supply - demand fundamentals [40]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain Consider shorting at high levels or long the bottle chip processing fee, as the industry's supply - demand situation is not favorable [41]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) LPG futures are easy to fall and difficult to rise due to abundant supply and weak demand [42]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Pulp Observe whether port inventory reduction continues and spot trading improves. The price is expected to have limited upward and downward space [44]. 3.7.2 Logs The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to downstream start - up and port inventory [44]. 3.7.3 Urea Consider buying at low levels. Although there may be a callback, do not be overly aggressive in shorting [44]. 3.7.4 Synthetic Rubber It may be slightly strong in the short term but weak in the long term. Be cautious when chasing high [46].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of monetary policies aimed at supporting the real economy, with significant effects observed in the first half of 2025. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has adopted a supportive monetary policy stance, having cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) 12 times and policy interest rates 9 times since 2020, leading to a decrease in loan market rates by 115 basis points for 1-year loans and 130 basis points for loans over 5 years [2] - A comprehensive set of financial support measures was introduced in May, focusing on maintaining liquidity, adjusting interest rates, and enhancing support for key sectors such as consumption and technology innovation [2][4] Group 2: Financial Data and Economic Impact - In the first half of 2025, the average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [3] - The structure of credit has improved, with new loans primarily directed towards manufacturing and infrastructure, and significant growth in green, inclusive, and digital loans, with increases of 27.4%, 11.2%, and 9.5% respectively [3] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to continue its moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning monetary supply with economic growth and price stability [4] - Emphasis will be placed on supporting key areas such as technology innovation, consumption expansion, and small and micro enterprises, while ensuring effective transmission of monetary policy [4][10] Group 4: Support for Consumption and Innovation - The PBOC has established a 500 billion yuan fund for service consumption and elderly care to enhance financial support for sectors like hospitality, education, and healthcare, aiming to stimulate consumer demand [6] - As of May 2025, loans for technology innovation and transformation reached 1.7 trillion yuan, supporting 1.5 million small and medium-sized tech enterprises [7] Group 5: Market Stability and Risk Management - The Chinese financial market has shown resilience amid global uncertainties, with the RMB exchange rate stabilizing around 7.2 against the USD [12] - The bond market has remained stable, with banks increasing their bond holdings to manage risks and ensure sustainable support for the real economy [13]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The central bank will further implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on enhancing financial services for the real economy [1] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of maintaining sufficient liquidity and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to support key areas such as technological innovation and consumption [3][9] Group 2: Currency Stability and Market Resilience - The RMB exchange rate remains fundamentally stable amid dual fluctuations, supported by a strong domestic economic foundation [2] - The central bank highlights the resilience of China's financial market, which is influenced by various factors including economic growth and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Financial Support for Key Sectors - New loans in the first half of the year were primarily directed towards key sectors such as manufacturing and infrastructure, with significant year-on-year growth [7] - The central bank has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan to enhance financial support for high-quality supply in service sectors [6] Group 4: Investment Trends and Market Sentiment - Sovereign wealth funds are increasingly interested in Chinese stocks, with 59% of surveyed funds prioritizing China, up from 44% last year [5] - A majority of funds expect to increase their allocation to Chinese stocks over the next five years, reflecting confidence in China's technological innovation leadership [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported significant growth in financial statistics for the first half of the year, indicating effective monetary policy support for the real economy and a low-cost financing environment [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Growth Metrics - As of June, the social financing scale increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% and the RMB loan balance rose by 7.1% [1]. - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with corporate loans being the primary driver, accounting for 89.5% of total new loans [2]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points from the previous year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [3]. Group 2: Loan Structure and Sector Focus - Corporate loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan, with medium- and long-term loans making up a significant portion, indicating stable funding for the real economy [2]. - The loan structure has been optimized, with new loans primarily directed towards key sectors such as manufacturing and infrastructure, with manufacturing medium- and long-term loans growing by 8.7% year-on-year [2]. - Seasonal consumer demand in June contributed to a rapid increase in credit, supported by promotional events and summer travel planning [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The PBOC is committed to maintaining an appropriately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery, with various measures implemented to ensure liquidity and lower financing costs [6][7]. - The central bank has introduced targeted support for sectors like consumption, technology innovation, and small and micro enterprises, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing economic growth [6][7]. - The overall financing structure is improving, with direct financing through stocks and bonds growing rapidly, while the total funds flowing to the real economy remain at a high level [7].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, which has positively impacted financial growth and structure, creating a conducive environment for high-quality economic development [1][5] - The financial data for the first half of 2025 shows a reasonable growth in total financing and RMB loans, with significant increases in social financing and loans compared to the previous year [1][2] Financial Data Overview - As of June, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating ample market liquidity [1] - Social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, an 8.9% year-on-year growth, with an additional 4.74 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, a 7.1% year-on-year growth, although slightly lower than the previous year's increase [1][2] Loan Structure and Support - The majority of new RMB loans were contributed by corporate loans, which increased by 11.57 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.5% of total new loans [2] - The PBOC has utilized various structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 11.6% year-on-year [2] Financing Costs and Market Resilience - The overall financing costs have decreased significantly, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points from the previous year [3] - The financial market has shown resilience, maintaining stability in the face of external uncertainties, with the GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter [3] Monetary Policy Framework - The monetary policy has shifted towards moderate easing, focusing on stabilizing asset prices and utilizing structural policy tools to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs [4] - There is a need for further measures to stimulate the real estate market and enhance consumer spending through targeted financial support [4][6] Future Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to continue its accommodative monetary policy, with potential further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates [5] - The bank aims to create a more open and inclusive policy environment to support various economic entities and residents [6]

Monetary Policy and Economic Support - Since 2020, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented 12 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 9 interest rate reductions, leading to a decrease of 115 basis points for 1-year loans and 130 basis points for loans over 5 years [1] - In the first half of the year, new corporate loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with a weighted average interest rate of approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year [2] - The PBOC's monetary policy has effectively supported the real economy, with total social financing growing by 8.9% year-on-year and broad money supply increasing by 8.3% [2][3] Financial Structure and Innovation Support - The PBOC's financial support measures have led to a notable increase in loans for technology and innovation, with technology loans growing by 12% year-on-year, reaching a balance of 43.3 trillion yuan [4] - The "Five Major Financial Articles" initiative has resulted in a loan balance of 103.3 trillion yuan, with significant growth in green, inclusive, and digital loans [4][5] - The establishment of a "Technology Board" in the bond market has facilitated the issuance of approximately 600 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds, supporting both emerging industries and traditional sectors [5] Consumer Spending and Economic Recovery - The PBOC has introduced a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension refinancing initiative to enhance financial support for sectors like hospitality, education, and tourism [6] - The focus is on improving the quality of financial services in the consumption sector, aiming to create a virtuous cycle where supply drives demand and vice versa [6]

针对部分中小银行采取较为激进的债券市场投资政策的现象，中国人民银行金融市场司负责人曹媛媛表 示，中小银行的债券投资需要保持合理的"度"。要把握好投资收益和风险承担的平衡。对于个别债券投 资较为激进的金融机构，应该关注债券面临的利率和信用风险。中国人民银行将持续加强市场监测，及 时将监测到的高风险机构的信息共享给机构监管部门，关注资本充足率以及市场风险，同时也将持续加 强市场建设，不断丰富利率和信用风险管理工具，发挥好市场机制作用，切实防范金融市场风险。 谈及如何继续做好民营和中小企业金融服务工作，中国人民银行信贷市场司司长彭立峰表示，下一步， 中国人民银行将主要推动三个方面工作：一是进一步健全金融支持民营和小微企业政策体系。开展金融 服务能力提升工程，引导普惠小微贷款、民营经济贷款合理增长。健全民营中小企业增信制度，充分发 挥政府性融资担保、信息共享、金融衍生品等的积极作用，提升企业融资可得性。二是持续加大金融资 源要素投入。实施好适度宽松的货币政策，用好支农支小再贷款、科技创新和技术改造再贷款等结构性 货币政策工具，促进供应链金融规范发展。三是助力企业高效融资对接。全面推广全国中小微企业资金 流信用信息共享 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行7月14日发布预告称，央行将在7月15日以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展1.4万亿元买断式逆回购操作，分别为3个月(91天)8000亿元、6个月(182 天)6000亿元。鉴于7月有1.2万亿元买断式逆回购到期以及3000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)到期，本次操作 将有力呵护银行体系流动性。 目前，央行基础货币投放渠道已较为丰富，MLF、买断式逆回购操作以及各类结构性工具均可以投放 中期流动性。财通证券（601108）首席经济学家孙彬彬指出，考虑到月内可以开展多次买断式逆回购操 作，因此7月买断式逆回购操作落地所释放的"呵护态度"比数量更重要。 今年以来，央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。央行副行长 邹澜7月14日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，下阶段，央行将进一步落实好适度宽松的货币政策。总量方 面，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，保持流动性充裕。 过去一个月，央行将买断式逆回购操作由月末披露改为提前预告，分别在6月5日和13日预告买断式逆回 购操作，为保持全月总体流动性充裕营造良好基础，提前预告操作的方式也缓解了市场对6月资金价格 ...