Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1][3]. Summary by Categories Overall Policy - The PBOC plans to flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1][3]. - There is still room for further RRR and interest rate cuts this year, and the PBOC will enhance the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the comprehensive financing costs low [1][3]. Structural Policy - The PBOC has already introduced a series of monetary financial policies at the beginning of the year, optimizing the policy elements of structural monetary policy tools [1][3]. - A reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools has been implemented [2][4]. - Specific measures include the establishment of a 1 trillion yuan special re-loan for private enterprises and the merging of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation and private enterprise bonds [2][4]. - The re-loan quota for supporting agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan, and the quota for technology innovation and technological transformation re-loans has been raised by 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [2][4]. Market Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial market operations, manage expectations, and keep the RMB exchange rate stable at a reasonable and balanced level [2][4]. - There will be strengthened supervision of the bond market, foreign exchange market, money market, bill market, and gold market [2][4]. - Mechanisms will be established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios, and two monetary policy tools will continue to support the stable development of the capital market [2][4].

1月22日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，2026年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，为 经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五"良好开局提 供有力的金融支撑。 总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币 供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。人民银行还将做 好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 结构性政策方面，中国人民银行已在今年初先行出台一批货币金融政策，对结构性货币政策工具的政策 要素作了优化完善。 在利率上，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。在类型上，单设1万亿元民营企业再贷 款，合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具。在额度上，增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元至 4.35万亿元，增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度4000亿元至1.2万亿元。在支持范围上，拓展碳减排支 持工具、服务消费与养老再贷款这两项工具的支持领域。这些政策已落地实施。 我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a favorable monetary and financial environment to support high-quality economic development in China, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][10]. Group 1: Implementation of Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with a focus on integrating incremental and stock policies [2][11]. - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates this year [2][11]. - Structural monetary policy tools have been optimized, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and the establishment of a 1 trillion yuan special re-loan for private enterprises [3][12]. Group 2: Financial System Development - The PBOC aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system as strategic measures to promote high-quality financial development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][13]. - Key areas of focus include optimizing the monetary policy target system, improving the mechanism for basic currency issuance, and enhancing the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms [4][14]. - The PBOC will also improve the structure of monetary policy tools to better guide financial institutions in optimizing loan allocations [5][14]. Group 3: Support for Real Economy - The PBOC will enhance support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, which are crucial for promoting high-quality development [6][16]. - Specific measures include a dedicated 500 billion yuan re-loan for consumer services and elderly care, as well as increased re-loan quotas for agricultural and small enterprises [6][17]. - Collaboration with various government departments will be strengthened to improve the effectiveness and accessibility of financial services for small and micro enterprises [7][18]. Group 4: Global Financial Governance - The PBOC will actively promote global financial governance reform and international financial cooperation, emphasizing a commitment to multilateralism and the construction of a fair and resilient global financial governance system [8][18]. - Efforts will include deepening institutional openness in the financial sector, advancing the internationalization of the yuan, and enhancing the cross-border payment system [9][18]. - The PBOC will also participate in international financial governance and cooperation, focusing on global macro policy coordination and the reform of the International Monetary Fund [9][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a favorable monetary and financial environment to support high-quality economic development in China, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][12]. Group 1: Implementation of Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with a focus on integrating incremental and stock policies [2][13]. - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity by flexibly using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2][13]. - There is still room for further RRR and interest rate cuts this year, and the PBOC will ensure effective execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the overall financing costs low [2][13]. Group 2: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and established a dedicated 1 trillion yuan re-loan for private enterprises [3][14]. - The PBOC has increased the re-loan quota for agricultural and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan and for technological innovation and transformation by 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [3][14]. - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial markets and manage expectations while ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [3][14][15]. Group 3: Financial System Development - The PBOC is focused on constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system as strategic measures for high-quality financial development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][16]. - The PBOC will optimize the monetary policy target system, emphasizing intermediate variables and reducing the focus on quantitative targets to enhance the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments [4][16]. - The PBOC plans to improve the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms to ensure smooth transmission from central bank policy rates to market benchmark rates [5][16]. Group 4: Enhancing Financial Services for the Real Economy - The PBOC will enhance financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, which are crucial for promoting high-quality development [7][20]. - Specific measures include a dedicated 500 billion yuan re-loan for consumer services and elderly care, and the promotion of financial product innovation to meet diverse consumer financial needs [7][20]. - The PBOC will also increase support for technological innovation by raising the re-loan quota for technology and transformation projects and merging tools to support private enterprises [7][21]. Group 5: Global Financial Governance and Cooperation - The PBOC aims to deepen institutional openness in the financial sector and promote high-level opening of financial services and markets, while supporting the internationalization of the RMB [10][22]. - The PBOC will develop a multi-channel, comprehensive, secure, and efficient cross-border payment system and enhance international cooperation in cross-border payments [10][22]. - The PBOC will actively participate in international financial governance and cooperation, including global macro policy coordination and the formulation of international financial regulatory rules [11][23].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1]. - There is still room for further RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year, with the PBOC emphasizing the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the comprehensive financing costs low [1]. Group 2: Structural Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has introduced a series of monetary financial policies earlier this year, optimizing the policy elements of structural monetary policy tools [1]. - Interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools have been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and a dedicated 1 trillion yuan re-loan for private enterprises has been established [1]. - The PBOC has increased the re-loan quota for supporting agriculture and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan and for technological innovation and transformation by 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [1]. - The support scope has been expanded to include carbon reduction support tools and re-loans for consumer services and elderly care [1]. Group 3: Financial Market Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain the stable operation of financial markets, manage expectations, and keep the RMB exchange rate stable at a reasonable and balanced level [2]. - There will be enhanced supervision and management of the bond market, foreign exchange market, money market, bill market, and gold market [2]. - The PBOC will continue to utilize two monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the capital market [2].

Group 1 - The 2026 first loan market quotation rate (LPR) remains unchanged for eight consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the consistent performance of major market interest rates and the lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR due to pressure on net interest margins [1][2] - Since June 2022, the LPR has remained stable, supported by strong exports and rapid development in high-tech manufacturing, allowing the macro economy to withstand external pressures [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented 10 policy rate cuts since the second half of 2018, leading to a decrease in the weighted average interest rates for new corporate and personal housing loans to around 3.1% [2] - A structural "rate cut" was announced, reducing the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set for various loan terms [2] - Experts suggest that the timing for a comprehensive rate cut may be delayed due to the recent structural rate cut and the high initial credit growth at the beginning of the year [3] Group 3 - The PBOC's deputy governor indicated that there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts, with the average ratio currently at 6.3% [3] - The stability of the RMB exchange rate and the ongoing easing of the USD provide a favorable environment for potential rate cuts [3] - The effectiveness of monetary policy transmission from the central bank to the financial system and then to the real economy is expected to improve, emphasizing the need for coordinated macro policies [4]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1129.00 | +5.00↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1683.50 | +10.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 649591.00 | -15352.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 40095.00 | -134.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -86396.00 | +23778.00↑ ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,286 | +10↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1449160 | -36985↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -12,725 | +1177↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report titled "Cold Clouds Cannot Hide the Morning Light, Spring Approaches with Thousands of Trees Competing for Glory" forecasts a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment in China [1] Monetary Policy - The report suggests the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with a focus on guiding exchange rate expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations in the currency [1] - It is recommended to allow the RMB to appreciate moderately by about 5% in 2026, moving from the current rate of 1:7.0 to a range of 1:6.6-6.7 [1] Exchange Rate Management - The report emphasizes the need for macro-prudential regulation of foreign exchange to ensure stable cross-border capital flows and to monitor and mitigate systemic financial risks [1] - It advises against using foreign exchange market interventions or window guidance to counteract appreciation driven by fundamentals, suggesting a greater reliance on market supply and demand to determine exchange rates [1]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 1401879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% based on constant prices. Quarterly growth rates are 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [1] Policy Measures - The macroeconomic policies have played a crucial role in achieving the economic growth target for 2025, characterized by a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy [1] - Total fiscal expenditure from January to November 2025 is approximately 35 trillion yuan, with general budget expenditure around 24.9 trillion yuan (up 1.4% year-on-year) and fund expenditure about 9.2 trillion yuan (up 13.7% year-on-year). Total fiscal expenditure for the year is expected to exceed 40 trillion yuan [2] - The social financing scale increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, marking an 8.3% year-on-year growth, with combined fiscal and financial support reaching approximately 75 to 80 trillion yuan, providing strong support for macroeconomic stability, employment, income, and social welfare [2] Structural Adjustments - Significant support for structural adjustments and key sectors has been noted, with the top ten fiscal expenditure categories closely related to people's livelihoods. Social security spending leads at over 4 trillion yuan, followed by education at 3.8 trillion yuan and healthcare at 1.9 trillion yuan [2] - Investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly, outpacing overall investment and economic growth, with fiscal spending in technology reaching 889.2 billion yuan (up 7.9%) [2] Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Macroeconomic policies have been vital in reducing costs and improving efficiency, with export tax rebates reaching 1.9 trillion yuan (up 5.6%) from January to November 2025. The net interest margin for commercial banks has dropped to a historical low of 1.42% [4] - Since 2018, interest rate cuts have occurred over ten times, contributing to cost reduction and efficiency improvements that support macroeconomic stability [4] Focus on Livelihood and Risk Management - Increasing emphasis on livelihood protection within macroeconomic policies has been observed [4] - Risk prevention and expectation management have become increasingly important, with the People's Bank of China introducing structural monetary policy tools to support capital markets, totaling 800 billion yuan, which significantly boosts market confidence [4] - Continued proactive macroeconomic policies are expected to persist into 2026, potentially with even stronger measures [4]