Core Viewpoint - A silent currency war has begun, highlighting the clash between national sovereignty and the borderless nature of cryptocurrencies in the new frontier of digital finance [1] Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Digital Currency - Trump's Bitcoin reserves and altcoin inventory aim to provide the U.S. with a decentralized advantage [2] - The U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policies are a strategic response to a $35 trillion debt crisis, with federal debt projected to reach 125% of GDP by the end of 2024 [6] - The establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and the removal of regulations limiting banks' participation in the crypto market are intended to enhance market liquidity [6][8] Group 2: Global Developments in Digital Currency - Dominica has legislated seven tokens from the TRON ecosystem as legal digital currencies, creating a basket currency system to mitigate market volatility [10] - The European Union is accelerating the development of a digital euro to counter concerns over U.S. stablecoins threatening its monetary sovereignty [10] - Hong Kong aims to establish itself as an "international virtual asset center," while the Central African Republic faces challenges with its national digital currency [10] Group 3: Technological Integration and Challenges - Emerging crypto wallets are crucial for bridging the gap between fiat and crypto assets, enhancing security and facilitating transactions [13] - The volatility of cryptocurrencies poses significant challenges for fiscal management, as seen with Bitcoin's price fluctuations [14] - Regulatory gaps are widening, with the U.S. prohibiting central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) while the EU expands its digital euro system [14] Group 4: Future of Currency and Financial Regulation - The future currency landscape may consist of a three-tier structure: state-backed digital currencies, cryptocurrencies as value reserves, and stablecoins facilitating cross-border transactions [16] - The push for digital currencies will lead to a more diversified monetary system, with potential implications for international currency competition [18] - Financial regulation will face new challenges, requiring a balance between innovation and risk management in the evolving digital economy [19]

证券研究报告 震中带韧，应对为王 ——2025年中期策略展望 2025年6月 浙商固收 | 分析师 | 覃汉 | 沈聂萍 | 崔正阳 | 郑莎 | 陈婷婷 | 章恒豪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | qinhan@stocke.com. | shennieping@stocke. | cuizhengyang@stocke.c | zhengsha@stocke.co | chentinting01@stocke.c | zhanghenghao@stoc | | | cn | com.cn | om.cn | m.cn | om.cn | ke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080005 | S1230524020005 | S1230524020004 | S1230524080012 | S1230525050001 | S1230123090052 | 目 录 03 机构行为：曲线熊平，超额难寻 04 权益市场：生态重构，韧性向上 01 宏观叙事：关税博弈，东稳西荡 02 货币政策：中性偏松，精准调控 05 ...

尊敬的审阅人员和品鉴读者：本文是经过严格查阅相关权威文献和资料。 全文数据有据可依，可供查证。 说到中国的态度，别觉得我是在空谈。自2021年开始，中国就明确表示不允许比特币在境内交易，认为它不过是一个虚拟商品，而不是货币。为什么？因为 比特币的价格波动太大，今天涨得飞起，明天就可能腰斩，谁能承受这种风险？如果你用比特币买个馒头，今天它值10块，明天就变成5块，商家和消费者 都难以接受。而且比特币的交易匿名性很强，容易被用来做洗钱和非法交易。除此之外，比特币的挖矿极其耗电，每天一台矿机的耗电量，足够一个普通家 庭用一个月。这跟中国的环保目标完全背道而驰。所以，中国坚决不碰比特币。 你有没有想过，如果比特币真成了全球流通的货币，我们的世界会是什么样子？这问题我最近一直在想——中国早就给了明确的回答：比特币不是钱，根本 不能用作法定货币。美国呢？他们为什么还在死磕比特币？ 为什么美国要死磕比特币？答案其实很简单——美元霸权在下滑。2024年，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比降到了57.3%，创下三十年来的最低点。其他国家 纷纷在减少对美元的依赖，美国自然不甘心。通过比特币，美国希望重新拉拢全球资本，把世界各国绑在自己的 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights Japan's precarious position in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly due to U.S. restrictions on exports of critical materials and technologies [1][3] - Japan is home to 23% of the world's semiconductor raw material factories, particularly in Kumamoto, which produces high-purity fluorinated polyimide essential for 3nm chips [1] - The U.S. has imposed conditions on Japan's exports, including the requirement for EUV lithography machines to have geofencing systems, effectively monitoring Japan's semiconductor capabilities [3] Group 2 - Japan's reliance on the U.S. for raw materials is increasing, with 43% of its high-purity rare earth production directed to North America, raising concerns about becoming a technology dependency nation [5] - Toshiba's 2023 financial report indicates a 12% drop in yield for silicon carbide chips due to a lack of domestic etching equipment, while Shin-Etsu Chemical faces rising wafer costs from using U.S. substitutes [6] - The average age of semiconductor engineers in Japan is 51, with a 38% decrease in young professionals over five years, indicating a talent crisis in the industry [6] Group 3 - Japan is exploring alternative technologies, such as quantum computing and hydrogen energy chips, as part of a strategic pivot in its semiconductor approach [8] - Panasonic has developed a miniaturized hydrogen production reactor, and advancements in hydrogen fuel cell technology have been made at the University of Tokyo [10] - Hitachi has created a "three-layer protection" verification system to enhance security in semiconductor material transport [11] Group 4 - Chinese manufacturers are benefiting from Japan's technological constraints, with new domestic etching machines utilizing expired Japanese patents and lower-cost rare earth extraction methods [13][14] - In 2023, Japan was compelled to relax 63 expired patent licenses, leading to a significant outflow of semiconductor talent to China [14] - The article suggests that the ongoing semiconductor conflict is a reflection of broader resource competition and emphasizes the need for Japan to rebuild its innovation ecosystem independently [16]

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 头图 | AI制图 5月19日，美国参议院通过《GENIUS法案》，为稳定币立法。紧接着，5月21日，香港立法会通过 《稳定币条例草案》。 仅仅48小时，围绕着稳定币的立法，或者说合法化提上日程，一场没有硝烟的战争已经悄然拉开了 序幕。 此外，二战后，美国成为世界上最强大的经济体。美国作为全球最大的消费国之一，也要向全球"输 送"美元，这就需要使用美元进行结算，满足全球对美元的需求——其他国家通过出口赚取美元后， 往往又将美元回流美国购买美债、股票等资产，形成"美元循环"。 稳定币，可以理解为现实法定货币在虚拟世界的映射。 与现实世界类似，大国正试图通过构建稳定币为主导的虚拟货币体系，将其演变为类似布雷顿森林体 系式的存在。 这背后，大国欲争夺的是货币全球扩张的话语权。 所以，稳定币到底是什么？ 一、影子"法币" 要理解稳定币究竟为何之前，我们先要再重申一下美元霸权的建立过程。 美元之所以逐渐能够成为全球通用货币在于：刚开始，美元与价值稳定的黄金挂钩，各国货币与美元 挂钩，形成了布雷顿森林体系；随后，美元虽与黄金脱钩，但率先占据了消费、贸易的话语权，捆绑 了石油，巩固了 ...

头图 | AI制图 5月19日，美国参议院通过《GENIUS法案》，为稳定币立法。紧接着，5月21日，香港立法会通过《稳定币条例草案》。 仅仅48小时，围绕着稳定币的立法，或者说合法化提上日程，一场没有硝烟的战争已经悄然拉开了序幕。 稳定币，可以理解为现实法定货币在虚拟世界的映射。 与现实世界类似，大国正试图通过构建稳定币为主导的虚拟货币体系，将其演变为类似布雷顿森林体系式的存在。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 这背后，大国欲争夺的是货币全球扩张的话语权。 所以，稳定币到底是什么？ 一、影子"法币" 要理解稳定币究竟为何之前，我们先要再重申一下美元霸权的建立过程。 美元之所以逐渐能够成为全球通用货币在于：刚开始，美元与价值稳定的黄金挂钩，各国货币与美元挂钩，形成了布雷顿森林体系；随后，美元虽与黄金脱 钩，但率先占据了消费、贸易的话语权，捆绑了石油，巩固了美元霸权地位。 20世纪70年代，美国与沙特阿拉伯等主要石油出口国达成协议，石油交易以美元计价和结算。 此外，二战后，美国成为世界上最强大的经济体。美国作为全球最大的消费国之一，也要向全球"输送"美元，这就需要使用美元进行结算，满足全球对美元 的需求 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the evolving dynamics of India-US relations, particularly in defense procurement, with India shifting from reliance on Russian military equipment to increasing purchases from the US [1][3][4] - US Commerce Secretary Raimondo emphasized India's openness to addressing US concerns and the potential for a bilateral trade agreement, with discussions scheduled for June 5 and a possible signing by July [3] - The historical context of India's defense procurement is rooted in its Cold War alliances, with a significant reduction in reliance on Russian equipment from 76% in 2009 to 36% in 2023, indicating a diversification of military partnerships [4] Group 2 - The articles discuss the criticism of the BRICS nations by former US President Trump, who warned against attempts to create a new global reserve currency and threatened high tariffs on non-compliance [3] - There is a recognition that India's participation in BRICS is strategic, allowing it to leverage its position for global governance reforms and to counterbalance China's influence, which aligns with US interests [4] - The commentary suggests that the US should acknowledge the complexity of India's foreign policy to foster deeper and more meaningful cooperation between the two nations [4]

6月1日那个深夜，美国贸易代表办公室悄悄发了个通告，对华关税豁免又延长了。 搞笑的是，就在两天前，特朗普还在推特上跟中国叫板呢。连他的财长都承认了，谈判压根就卡住了，得两国老大亲自出马。 这家伙怎么变脸比翻书还快？美国这是咋了？ 作者 辉 说变脸就变脸，特朗普这48小时的操作把全世界都看懵了。 前两天还在推特上咆哮，说中国工厂要倒闭了，自己"仁慈地"拯救了危机。那副得意洋洋的样子，就像个刚刚赢了弹珠游戏的小孩子。哪知道转眼间，美国 贸易代表办公室就偷偷摸摸延长了对华关税豁免。这操作简直比川剧变脸还要神速，连观众都来不及反应。 更让人哭笑不得的是，连他自己的财政部长贝森特都忍不住吐槽，中美贸易谈判"有点停滞"，得麻烦两国元首亲自下场才能解决。这话听起来就像是在 说："老板，我们这边实在搞不定了，得您亲自出马。"一个堂堂财政部长说出这种话，多少有些无奈的味道。 有美国议员都忍不住吐槽："没人知道他五天后的规定是啥样。"这话说得太精准了。政策朝令夕改，从125%改成145%，又悄悄延长豁免，这哪里是什么战 略布局，简直就是在瞎折腾。就像一个赌徒，一会儿all in，一会儿又想着保本离场，完全没有章法可言。 这种戏剧 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that the U.S. is exploring the issuance of stablecoins as a means to redefine and support U.S. Treasury bonds amidst a growing debt crisis and lack of buyers [2][3][9] - The current U.S. national debt stands at $36.8 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.5 trillion, which constitutes 30% of federal revenue [2] - The U.S. is facing a significant challenge as the largest currency supplier and the largest goods supplier are in conflict, leading to a decrease in the dollar's commodity backing [3][5] Group 2 - The potential strategy of using digital currency as a new anchor for U.S. Treasury bonds could allow for tax reductions without Federal Reserve interference, benefiting the current administration [5] - The issuance of stablecoins could increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by integrating them into global economies, thus expanding market space and revenue from seigniorage [5][9] - The U.S. is under pressure as countries lose confidence in U.S. debt, with Japan recently selling off U.S. bonds and using them as leverage in trade negotiations [9] Group 3 - The proposed issuance of century bonds, which would require other countries to buy long-term, no-interest U.S. bonds, is seen as a way to manipulate foreign nations into financing U.S. debt [7][9] - The current administration's approach to tariffs and trade is viewed as a means to fill budget gaps, with a projected fiscal deficit of $1.833 trillion for 2024 [7] - The urgency of addressing the $36.8 trillion debt is emphasized, as failure to do so could lead to severe economic consequences in the near future [9]