江阴海达橡塑股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2026-01 | 投资者关系活动 | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他： | | 参与单位名称 | 中信证券 财通基金 | | 时间 | 2026 年 1 月 20 日 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待人 | 钱振宇---董事长、总经理 | | 员姓名 | 胡蕴新---董事、副总经理、董事会秘书 | | | 吴纪高---海达新能源总经理 | | | 1、总体介绍公司业务板块情况。 | | | 2、请问 2025 年经营情况及以后的业务展望： | | | 答：2025年公司生产经营正常，其中 1-9月实现营业收入 26.67 | | | 亿元，较上年同期增长 13.43%，归属于上市公司股东的净利 | | | 润为 1.67 亿元, 较上年同期增长 42.99%。 | | | 未来，公司将立足中高端定位，围绕橡胶制品密封、减振 | | | 两大基本功能，发挥多领域配套战略和技术融合的优势，夯实 ...

Core Insights - The introduction of investment copper bars in Shenzhen marks a significant shift in the perception of copper, moving away from its previous status as "scrap metal" to a recognized investment asset [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Investment copper bars, with a purity of 999.9 and weights of 500g and 1000g, are being offered at prices ranging from 180 to 280 yuan for 1000g [1] - The price of copper is projected to rise significantly, with forecasts indicating a 34.34% increase in 2025, from 73,830 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 99,180 yuan/ton by year-end [3][4] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historical high of $13,407 per ton in January 2026, with domestic futures also exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to a combination of tight global copper supply, trade flow restructuring due to U.S. tariff expectations, and increased demand from artificial intelligence and new energy infrastructure [4][5] - Analysts indicate that the supply side is constrained by a 10% reduction in copper production capacity and significant withdrawals from LME copper inventories, raising concerns about future shortages [5][6] - The demand for copper is being driven by the energy transition and the growing electricity needs from AI and other sectors, contributing to increased consumption [5] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Most investment banks maintain a bullish outlook on copper prices, with Citigroup predicting prices could exceed $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and potentially reach $15,000 per ton by the second quarter [7] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a refined copper shortage of approximately 330,000 tons in 2026, with average prices around $12,075 per ton [7] - However, some analysts, like Goldman Sachs, caution that the rapid price increase may suppress market demand, predicting a potential decline to $11,200 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downward trend, with major indices showing significant declines, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and sector performance [1]. Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.3% to 4101.62 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.83% [1]. - Approximately 3400 stocks in the A-share market were in the red, with total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reaching about 1.87 trillion yuan [1]. Sector Analysis - Sectors such as military, non-ferrous metals, and steel are experiencing declines, while real estate, insurance, banking, and semiconductors are showing upward movement [1]. - Active concepts include phosphate-related stocks and the "China Special Valuation" theme [1]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - According to Zhongyin Securities, the "spring fever" market is facing short-term pressure due to a complex overseas macro environment, increased uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and domestic regulatory efforts to stabilize the market [1]. - The risk appetite is not the only factor influencing pricing themes; sector catalysts and positioning are also crucial. The likelihood of "one sector rising while another falls" is greater than "synchronous declines" in the current market context [1]. - Recent changes in trading volume proportions among the top ten concept sectors indicate an increase in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and robotics sectors, with high potential for AI application catalysts in the future [1]. - The short-term adjustment is attributed to previous overvaluations and emotional impacts from event disturbances, but the underlying logic of the AI application trend remains intact, suggesting that the market may continue to perform well [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that JunDa Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.29% in its stock price, reaching 86.00 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 974 million CNY and a turnover rate of 4.92%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 25.162 billion CNY [1] - JunDa Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of photovoltaic cells, with its main products including 210-N N-type TOPCon monocrystalline cells, 182/183-N N-type TOPCon monocrystalline cells, and 182-P PERC monocrystalline cells. The company's revenue composition is 99.79% from photovoltaic cells and 0.21% from other sources [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, Huatai Bairui Fund holds a position in JunDa Co., Ltd. The photovoltaic ETF (515790) reduced its holdings by 70,900 shares in the third quarter, now holding 1.8184 million shares, which accounts for 0.63% of the circulating shares, resulting in an estimated floating loss of approximately 8.7281 million CNY [2] - The photovoltaic ETF (515790) was established on December 7, 2020, with a current scale of 13.976 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 12.06%, ranking 650 out of 5,542 in its category, while the one-year return is 46.27%, ranking 1,561 out of 4,235 [2]

Company and Industry Summary Company: 博迁新材 (Bojian New Materials) Key Points - **Industry Context**: The demand for AI servers is driving an increase in power consumption, necessitating the use of nickel powder as a key material for internal electrodes in MLCCs (Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors) to ensure stability [1][2] - **Product Development**: The evolution of AI servers requires MLCCs to upgrade towards miniaturization, high capacitance, and high-temperature resistance, which in turn drives the development of nickel powder towards smaller particle sizes, higher purity, and better thermal resistance [1][2] - **Technical Advantages**: The company produces nickel powder using a self-developed PVD (Physical Vapor Deposition) method, which offers high yield, uniform microstructure, high tap density, and even distribution of alloy elements. The production equipment is designed and assembled in-house, showcasing significant technical barriers [2] - **Market Position**: The company has achieved mass production of nickel powder with a particle size of 80nm, maintaining a global supply dominance. This capability is supported by extensive know-how accumulated in various production stages, particularly in high-temperature metal evaporation [2] - **Long-term Contracts**: To secure future stable supply, downstream customers are proactively signing long-term agreements with the company. Recently, a significant contract was signed with customer X, committing to supply between 5,420 to 6,495 tons of nickel powder from August 2025 to December 2029, with annual supply volumes nearly matching the company's expected shipments for 2024 [2] - **Copper Powder Business**: With silver prices reaching new highs, the photovoltaic industry is expected to shift from silver paste to copper paste, which could lead to significant growth in the company's copper powder business starting in 2026, provided subsequent validations are successful [2] - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.195 billion, 2.210 billion, and 3.181 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 245 million, 612 million, and 911 million yuan. Corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 63, 25, and 17 times [2] Risk Factors - **Risks**: Potential risks include underperformance in technology development, increased market competition, and lower-than-expected downstream demand [3]

Group 1 - Foster's stock price increased by 5.16% on January 20, reaching 16.11 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 243 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.59%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 42.027 billion CNY [1] - The stock has risen for three consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 9.59% during this period [1] - Foster's main business includes the research, production, and sales of solar cell encapsulants, polyamide mesh hot melt adhesives, and solar cell backsheets, with revenue composition: photovoltaic encapsulants 90.65%, photosensitive dry film 4.08%, photovoltaic backsheets 2.20%, and others [1] Group 2 - According to data, one of the top ten circulating shareholders of Foster is a fund under GF Fund, which reduced its holdings by 1.9399 million shares in the third quarter, holding a total of 18.6697 million shares, accounting for 0.72% of circulating shares [2] - The fund, GF High-end Manufacturing Stock A (004997), has a current scale of 4.424 billion CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 2.82% [2] - The fund manager, Zheng Chengran, has been in position for 5 years and 247 days, with the best fund return during his tenure being 76.26% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Farah Electronics (600563) serves a diverse range of clients across various sectors, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, wind power, industrial control, rail transportation, smart grids, and home appliances [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes its focus on industries that are pivotal for sustainable development and technological advancement [1] - The interaction with investors highlights the company's commitment to transparency and engagement with its stakeholders [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current spot price of tin has dropped significantly, with a reported range of 389,750-391,750 RMB per ton, averaging 390,750 RMB per ton, reflecting a decline of 24,000 RMB or over 5% from the previous trading day [1] - The price drop is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic sentiment shifts, weakened fundamental support, and capital behavior [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Both international and domestic macroeconomic environments are tightening, leading to suppressed market sentiment for non-ferrous metals [2] - Expectations for monetary policy easing in major economies have been revised, strengthening the US dollar and directly impacting the prices of commodities like tin [2] - Domestic financial regulators are emphasizing the prevention of excessive speculation, causing some speculative capital to exit the market, which has contributed to the pressure on previously inflated prices [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current tin market is characterized by a short-term oversupply, which is a core reason for the price correction [3] - Visible inventories have accumulated significantly, indicating a loosening of market supply [3] - Production and export activities in major raw material regions are steadily recovering, alleviating previous supply tensions [3] - Demand is facing seasonal weakness and structural challenges, particularly in traditional sectors like electronic solder, which lack significant replenishment momentum [3] Group 4: Industry Chain Transmission - The market is experiencing transmission bottlenecks across various segments of the industry chain [4] - Upstream supply tensions are marginally improving, while midstream smelting operations are under pressure from falling prices and inventory accumulation [4] - Downstream processing enterprises are maintaining low inventory strategies due to uncertainty in future price trends, leading to a lack of positive feedback loops [4] Group 5: Corporate Impact and Market Outlook - The significant drop in tin prices is exerting short-term pressure on the stock prices of related listed companies [5] - Leading companies, while benefiting from previous high prices, will face squeezed profit margins due to price volatility [5] - Current market trading is subdued, with both buyers and sellers adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to poor price transmission [5] - Short-term tin prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and high inventory levels [5] - Key variables to monitor include global macroeconomic data, recovery pace of traditional demand, and changes in inventory trends at major exchanges [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13% to 4107.18 points, while the ChiNext Index experiences a decline of 0.64% [1] Market Performance - Approximately 3400 stocks in the A-share market are in the green, indicating a broad-based rally [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reaches about 1.81 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as insurance and semiconductors are declining, while tourism, food and beverage, electricity, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal sectors are experiencing gains [1] - Concepts related to ultra-high voltage, wind power, and photovoltaics are active in the market [1] Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities suggests that adjustments in financing margins do not affect the overall upward trend of the market but will impact its structure [1] - The focus is shifting back to performance indicators as the market enters the annual report forecast period [1] - The significant redemption of ETFs is part of a counter-cyclical adjustment, providing an opportunity for allocation funds to enter the market [1] Portfolio Recommendations - A good investment combination should be characterized by a positive experience, low resistance, and reduced anxiety, based on "resources + traditional manufacturing pricing weight estimation" [1] - It is advisable to increase allocations in non-bank sectors (such as securities and insurance) while enhancing returns through certain service consumer products (like duty-free and aviation) or high-growth sectors (such as semiconductor equipment) [1]

Core Insights - The resilience of the US economy has exceeded expectations, with geopolitical tensions escalating and the probability of Walsh becoming the new Federal Reserve Chairman significantly increasing, leading to adjustments in the US stock market [2] - The MSCI global index rose by 0.33%, while US stocks declined, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones falling by 0.4%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [2][17] - The US retail sales for November 2025 increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, while initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below the anticipated 215,000 [2][7] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, particularly regarding US interests in Greenland and military actions in Iran and Venezuela, which may impact market risk appetite [2][12] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with the dollar strengthening and gold prices potentially adjusting despite benefiting from safe-haven demand [2][20] Economic Fundamentals - US retail sales for November 2025 showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, with core retail sales (excluding automobiles) rising by 0.5% [7][8] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10, 2026, dropped to 198,000, indicating a robust labor market [7][8] Geopolitical Developments - The geopolitical uncertainty index has significantly increased, reflecting rising tensions, particularly regarding US military interests in Greenland and actions against Iran and Venezuela [10][12] - The probability of Kevin Walsh succeeding as the Federal Reserve Chairman has risen following recent statements from President Trump [10][12] Market Performance - The US stock market has shown mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones experiencing declines, while European and emerging markets generally saw gains [2][17] - The 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields increased by 6 basis points and 5 basis points, respectively, indicating a shift in market expectations [20] - The dollar index rose by 0.23% to 99.37, while commodities like gold and oil also saw price increases [20] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market showed overall gains, with the Hang Seng Index and related indices rising between 1.9% and 2.7% [35][31] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a PE ratio of 12.20, indicating a favorable position compared to historical averages [35][32] - Non-essential consumer sectors led the gains in Hong Kong, with significant inflows into technology and healthcare sectors [40][47]