Key Points - The article emphasizes the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks in China's development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for strategic determination and confidence in facing challenges [3][5][31] - It outlines the goal of significantly enhancing China's economic, technological, defense, comprehensive national strength, and international influence by 2035, reflecting the demands of great power strategic competition [5][6] - The focus is on maintaining economic construction as the center of development, with a target economic growth rate of around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][7] - The article discusses the importance of optimizing major productivity layouts and emphasizes the need for strategic industrial backups, particularly in regions like Sichuan [9] - It highlights the necessity of strengthening national security capabilities in key areas, including food, energy, and supply chain security, as well as enhancing overseas security for citizens and businesses [11][12] - The article stresses the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation, with a focus on strategic emerging industries such as AI, biotechnology, and new energy [13][15] - It discusses the need to maintain a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry while promoting high-tech manufacturing and optimizing traditional sectors [18] - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption, particularly in the service sector, and suggests reforms in income distribution to reduce wealth disparities [21][22] - It outlines the need to expand effective investment, particularly in public infrastructure and services, while also focusing on strategic sectors like transportation and energy [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes enhancing and improving people's livelihoods while promoting common prosperity for all [1] Group 1: Social Welfare and Livelihood Improvement - The meeting calls for increased efforts to address urgent issues faced by the public and to enhance social mobility channels [1] - It highlights the importance of promoting high-quality and sufficient employment opportunities [1] - The need to improve the income distribution system is emphasized [1] Group 2: Education and Social Security - The session stresses the importance of providing satisfactory education for the people [1] - It advocates for the establishment of a comprehensive social security system [1] Group 3: Real Estate and Health Development - The meeting encourages the high-quality development of the real estate sector [1] - There is a focus on accelerating the construction of a healthy China and promoting high-quality population development [1] Group 4: Public Services - The session aims to steadily advance the equalization of basic public services [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, focusing on the modernization of the economy and various sectors including manufacturing, culture, and rural development. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Policy Measures** The session emphasizes achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, supported by fiscal and quasi-fiscal policies, including the introduction of 500 billion new policy financial tools and revitalizing local debt limits to boost economic growth in Q4 [5][12][16]. 2. **Focus on Advanced Manufacturing** The session highlights the importance of advanced manufacturing as a backbone of the modern industrial system, stressing the need for self-reliance in technology and innovation [2][14]. 3. **Rural Modernization and Infrastructure Investment** Plans to enhance rural living conditions and increase investment in public services and infrastructure are outlined, aiming for coordinated regional development in key areas like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau [7][11]. 4. **Cultural Strengthening** The importance of cultural output and confidence is emphasized, with a focus on stimulating national cultural innovation, which presents opportunities for the cultural and media sectors [9][11]. 5. **Trade and Global Supply Chain Stability** China aims to maintain a multilateral trade system, implementing zero tariffs for least developed countries and enhancing trade cooperation with Africa and ASEAN, showcasing the advantages of Chinese manufacturing [6][16]. 6. **Investment in Human Capital** The principle of "investing in people" is highlighted, with increased support for social welfare programs such as childcare subsidies, aimed at reducing living costs and stimulating consumption [10][11]. 7. **Market Outlook for A-shares** The A-share market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a focus on sectors like technology, data economy, and traditional industries such as steel and cement, reflecting a shift from risk to livelihood in real estate [13][16][21]. 8. **Structural Changes in the A-share Market** A structural divergence is noted within the A-share market, with significant differences in performance between new productivity sectors and traditional real estate, indicating varying investment opportunities [18][19]. 9. **New Structural Reforms** New structural reforms are anticipated to impact sectors such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, which are closely linked to the transition from old to new economic drivers [20]. Other Important Insights - **Short-term Economic Risks** Short-term risks in the A-share market are considered manageable, with a focus on specific themes and styles to capture potential opportunities [21]. - **Consumer Demand Expansion** The expansion of consumer demand is seen as crucial in the current policy environment, with certain stocks showing significant returns compared to traditional indices [19]. - **Future of Space Economy and Marine Industry** The development of the space economy and marine industry is viewed as having vast potential, driven by national priorities in aerospace and deep-sea technology [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the strategic direction of China's economic policies and their implications for various sectors and the A-share market.

Core Points - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20 to 23, 2023, in Beijing, where the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" were reviewed and approved [1] Group 1: Economic Development - The "15th Five-Year" period is crucial for laying the foundation for the basic realization of socialist modernization and has an important transitional role [2] - The focus will be on building a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone, emphasizing the importance of the real economy and promoting intelligent, green, and integrated development [3] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - There is a strong emphasis on accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and enhancing the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system to boost autonomous innovation capabilities [4] Group 3: Domestic Market and Consumption - The plan aims to build a strong domestic market by expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and ensuring a close relationship between investment in goods and investment in people [5] Group 4: Rural Development - The session highlighted the importance of modernizing agriculture and rural areas, focusing on solving "three rural issues" and promoting urban-rural integration [6] Group 5: Social Welfare - There is a commitment to improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity, with a focus on enhancing social mobility and quality of life [7][8] Group 6: Environmental Sustainability - The session calls for a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, with a focus on achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality while enhancing ecological safety [9] Group 7: National Security and Defense - The modernization of the national security system and capabilities is emphasized, alongside the goal of achieving high-quality development in national defense and military modernization [10][11] Group 8: Party Governance - Effective party governance is seen as essential for strong economic and social development, with a focus on strict party discipline and anti-corruption efforts [13]

Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant achievements in high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive reforms [1] - By 2035, the goal is to elevate China's economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength, achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries [1] Group 2: Industrial and Technological Advancements - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes new industrialization, focusing on high-quality development and the integration of technological and industrial innovation [2] - Plans include nurturing emerging industries and future sectors, with a focus on advanced manufacturing and technology-driven growth [2] Group 3: Market and Economic Structure - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand and enhancing the domestic market's resilience to external risks [4][5] - A unified national market will be promoted by eliminating unreasonable market entry restrictions and ensuring fair competition [4][5] Group 4: Agricultural and Rural Development - The focus is on modernizing agriculture and rural areas, with goals set for 2035 to achieve agricultural modernization and improved living conditions in rural areas [6] - Efforts will be made to enhance agricultural productivity and quality, while promoting rural revitalization [6] Group 5: Social Welfare and Employment - The plan emphasizes improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity through enhanced social welfare systems and employment opportunities [7] - Key initiatives include improving income distribution, education, and healthcare services [7] Group 6: Environmental Sustainability - The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes a commitment to green transformation and building a beautiful China, focusing on carbon neutrality and ecological protection [8][9] - Policies will be implemented to promote a circular economy and sustainable resource management [9] Group 7: Macro-Economic Stability - The government aims to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations to maintain economic stability [10] - Continuous macroeconomic policy adjustments will be made to support economic recovery and growth [10]

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the need to "concentrate efforts on doing our own things well" and to continue writing new chapters of rapid economic development and long-term social stability[4] - The economic situation is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with an increasing number of unpredictable factors[4] - The goal for the year is to achieve a 5% economic growth rate, supported by nearly 300 billion yuan in policy financial tools and an allocation of 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits[5] Industrial Development - The meeting highlighted the importance of building a modern industrial system and maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing[6] - Emphasis was placed on the integration of technology innovation into industrial practices, promoting collaboration between traditional and emerging industries[6] - The focus on enhancing domestic circulation and breaking down barriers to a unified national market was reiterated[6] Technological Advancement - The meeting called for accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and strengthening the role of new productive forces[7] - It proposed a coordinated development of education, technology, and talent, along with advancing digital China initiatives[7] Economic Reform and Social Welfare - Economic system reform was positioned as a key priority, with a focus on improving macroeconomic governance[8] - The meeting underscored the commitment to common prosperity, emphasizing employment, income, and housing as critical areas[8] Green Development - The meeting proposed accelerating comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, with a focus on achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality[9] - It emphasized the importance of building a new energy system and enhancing ecological safety[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report compares the core contents of the communiqués of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, covering aspects such as past achievements, development environment, guiding ideology, principles, main goals, and specific strategies for different fields [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Past Achievements - The 2025 plenary session highly evaluated the great achievements in China's development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, with the economy, technology, and comprehensive national strength reaching new levels and a good start for the second - centenary goal. The 2020 plenary session highly evaluated the decisive achievements in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects [1] Development Environment - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period will face a complex and changing development environment with both strategic opportunities and risks. China's economy has a stable foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, and the long - term positive trend remains unchanged. In 2020, China had shifted to a high - quality development stage with many advantages for continued development, but also faced problems such as unbalanced and insufficient development [1] Guiding Ideology - Both emphasize adhering to the Party's leadership, the new development concept, and the general keynote of making progress while maintaining stability. The 2025 session focuses on promoting high - quality development with reform and innovation as the driving force and meeting people's needs as the goal, and comprehensively and strictly governing the Party as the guarantee. The 2020 session emphasized deepening supply - side structural reform [1] Principles - Both stress adhering to the Party's overall leadership, the people - centered approach, high - quality development, and reform. The 2025 session also mentions the combination of an effective market and an active government, and coordinating development and security [1] Main Goals - In 2025, significant achievements are expected in high - quality development, reform, social civilization, ecological civilization, people's livelihood, and national governance. By 2035, China's economic, technological, and comprehensive national strength will be greatly enhanced, and basic socialist modernization will be achieved [1] Industry System - Both emphasize focusing on the real economy, building manufacturing, quality, and network powers. The 2025 session also mentions promoting digital China construction, developing strategic emerging industries, and optimizing traditional industries [1] Science and Technology - Both highlight the core position of innovation. The 2025 session focuses on seizing the opportunity of the technological revolution, promoting the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talents, and strengthening original innovation and key core technology research [1] Domestic Market - Both advocate expanding domestic demand and combining it with supply - side reform. The 2025 session emphasizes promoting consumption and investment through new demand and supply, and enhancing the internal dynamics of the domestic cycle [1] Economic System - Both stress improving the socialist market economic system, giving play to the market's decisive role and the government's role. The 2025 session also mentions establishing a modern fiscal and financial system and accelerating the transformation of government functions [1] Opening - up - Both advocate high - level opening - up. The 2025 session emphasizes expanding independent opening - up, promoting trade innovation, and high - quality construction of the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Rural Issues - Both prioritize solving "Three Rural Issues" and promoting rural revitalization. The 2025 session emphasizes promoting rural modernization, ensuring food security, and implementing rural construction actions [1] Regional Development - Both aim to optimize regional economic layout and promote coordinated development. The 2025 session focuses on leveraging the effects of relevant strategies and enhancing regional development coordination [1] Culture - Both adhere to the guiding position of Marxism in the ideological field and promote cultural development. The 2025 session emphasizes developing a new - era socialist culture with international influence [1] People's Livelihood - Both focus on improving people's livelihood and promoting common prosperity. The 2025 session emphasizes solving people's urgent problems, promoting high - quality employment, and improving the social security system [1] Green Development - Both uphold the concept of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" and promote green transformation. The 2025 session emphasizes carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and building a new energy system [1] National Security - Both adhere to the overall national security concept and strengthen national security construction. The 2025 session emphasizes integrating security into all fields of development and preventing various risks [1] National Defense - Both aim to modernize national defense and the military. The 2025 session focuses on accelerating the integration of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence, and improving combat capabilities [1] Party Building - Both emphasize the Party's overall leadership and strengthening Party building. The 2025 session focuses on enhancing the Party's leadership ability in economic and social development [1] National Reunification - Both aim to maintain the long - term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macao, promote cross - strait relations, and achieve national reunification [1]

Economic Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant achievements in high-quality development and technological self-reliance, with a target for per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-income countries by 2035[3] - The plan emphasizes the importance of continuous efforts and reforms to achieve socialist modernization, marking the "15th Five-Year" period as crucial for foundational work[3] Supply-Side Strategies - Focus on building a modern industrial system to strengthen the real economy, with an emphasis on intelligent, green, and integrated development[4] - The plan aims to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, avoiding premature deindustrialization, and encourages breakthroughs in key technological areas to enhance self-innovation capabilities[4] Demand-Side Strategies - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, promoting effective interaction between supply and demand, and enhancing the domestic market's internal dynamics[4] - The plan calls for a strong domestic market and high-level opening up to create a new development pattern that promotes mutual reinforcement between domestic and international cycles[4] Social Welfare and Housing - The plan highlights the need to enhance social welfare and promote common prosperity, with a focus on equal access to basic public services and high-quality development in the real estate sector[5] - Future policies may shift local fiscal spending from investment to public services, indicating a long-term view of the real estate market as a foundational industry for people's livelihoods[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the expansion of fiscal policies and the extent of monetary policy easing not meeting expectations[6]

宏 观 研 究 四中全会精神学习理解 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 (8621)23297818× jiadx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 10 月 23 日 续写奇迹新篇章 ——四中全会精神学习理解 事件：中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。 一、全会强调"集中力量办好自己的事"，"续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇章 经济形势研判方面，本次会议指出"我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期"， 同时着重强调，要"勇于面对风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验"。相较于十九届五中全会，本次会议更加突出 我国经济长期向好的支撑条件、基本趋势与制度优势，并明确提出要"以历史主动精神克难关、战风险、迎挑战， 集中力量办好自己的事，续写经济快 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic issues and continuing the narrative of rapid economic development and long-term social stability in China, amidst a backdrop of both strategic opportunities and risks [3][4]. Economic Development - The meeting highlighted that China's development is currently characterized by both strategic opportunities and challenges, with an increasing number of unpredictable factors [3]. - It was stated that the goal for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to achieve significant results in high-quality development and greatly enhance the level of technological self-reliance [3][13]. - The meeting reaffirmed the commitment to achieving the annual economic and social development goals, with a solid foundation for a 5% economic growth target supported by nearly 300 billion yuan in policy financial tools and 500 billion yuan allocated from local government debt limits [4][13]. Modern Industrial System - The meeting placed greater emphasis on building a modern industrial system and explicitly stated the need to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing [5][13]. - It stressed the importance of integrating technological innovation into industrial practices and promoting collaboration between traditional and emerging industries [5][13]. - The meeting also called for enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of domestic circulation and breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market [5][13]. Technological Development - The meeting underscored the importance of achieving high-level technological self-reliance and leading the development of new productive forces [6][14]. - It proposed a coordinated development of education, technology, and talent, while also emphasizing the advancement of digital China [6][14]. Economic System Reform - The meeting highlighted the critical role of economic system reform, upgrading the focus from "comprehensive deepening of reform" to "economic system reform as a driving force" [7][15]. - It emphasized the need to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance and improve the market-oriented allocation of resources [7][15]. Social Welfare and Green Development - The meeting focused on increasing efforts to improve people's livelihoods and promote common prosperity, with a specific emphasis on employment, income, and housing [7][15]. - It called for a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, with a focus on achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [8][15]. Regional Development - The meeting proposed optimizing regional economic layouts and promoting coordinated regional development, emphasizing the need for a high-quality regional economic layout and land space system [8][16].