12月3日下午,2025青岛财富盛典暨新格局下的全球产业链接以"跨境·融通·共赢"为主题,深入探讨全球经济大变局对投资理财市场的影响,探索金融如何更好 地助力企业出海,帮助企业更高效、更安全地融入全球价值链,为财富管理高质量发展注入新动能。 随着全球化的推进,跨境投资与出海贸易备受关注,在本届财富盛典的主题演讲和圆桌对话环节,与会嘉宾深入探讨了当前企业出海和国际化战略所面临的变 局,并围绕新财富管理时代的投资理财新观点与财富布局新蓝图展开深度分享。 从康波周期到出海浪潮： 解码数字时代财富新坐标 中国首席经济学家论坛理事、青岛银行首席经济学家刘晓曙,在《是泡沫?还是繁荣新起点?》的演讲中,探讨了康波周期理论对当前经济与市场的启示。他 表示,尽管学界在康波周期"断代"上存在显著分歧,但康波周期的客观存在已获广泛共识。他提出以"长期投资回报率"这一核心市场经济指标作为断代依据, 并据此判断当前全球经济正处在以"数字经济"为特征的第六个康波周期的上升阶段。 刘晓曙做主题演讲 "真正的财富源于对经济结构与周期规律的深刻认知。面对数字经济时代带来的结构性变迁,投资者与社会能够理解并把握'新世界'的演变逻辑,或许是寻找 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The article emphasizes the need to accept a new geopolitical and macroeconomic paradigm centered around modern mercantilism, which is seen as a defensive reaction to the hollowing out of manufacturing in developed countries [1] - The Trump administration's agenda is characterized as embodying modern mercantilism, with significant administrative power expansion to dominate the economy, where national security drives industrial policy [1][2] Group 2: Policy Aspects - The article discusses the Trump administration's re-industrialization strategy and modern mercantilism, highlighting recent aggressive policies such as tariffs and investments in key industries like chips and resources [5] - It notes that the U.S. government is leveraging investments to stimulate key industries and promote small businesses, while trade barriers and a weaker dollar are used to boost exports [5] - The projected acceleration of AI investment to $255 billion by Q2 2025 is expected to drive growth across various sectors, aligning with the investment cycle theory [5] Group 3: Economic Aspects - The article outlines expectations for economic growth in the U.S. starting in Q4 this year, with a resurgence in inflation and a strong job market [14] - It highlights that despite concerns about AI leading to job losses, the employment market remains tight, with companies continuing to hire across all sizes [14][16] - Inflation is anticipated to rise, with many businesses still experiencing upward price movements, suggesting that core PCE inflation may see a slight increase by early next year [18] Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - The article suggests that the market's expectations regarding U.S. policies and the economic environment over the next six months will support commodity prices [19] - It points out that hedge funds and asset managers currently hold net long positions in crude oil that are near historical lows, primarily due to OPEC+ strategies and fears of a U.S. economic slowdown [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Ding Luming, a prominent analyst at CITIC Securities, announced his departure from the sell-side research role after 16 years to enter the private equity industry, marking a significant career transition [2][4]. Group 1: Career Background - Ding Luming has been with CITIC Securities since 2014, holding various key positions including Executive General Manager of the Research Development Department and Chief Analyst for the Financial Engineering Team [4]. - He is well-known in the industry for creating the "quantitative fundamental" research system and has accurately predicted major market trends and turning points [4]. - Ding has received multiple accolades, including being ranked 1st in the New Fortune Best Analyst awards in 2013 and 1st in the Crystal Ball Best Analyst awards in 2009 and 2013 [4]. Group 2: New Venture - After leaving CITIC Securities, Ding Luming founded Shanghai Ruicheng Private Fund Management Co., Ltd., which was officially registered on July 14, 2025, with a registered capital of 10 million yuan [4][5]. - Ding holds a 51% stake in Shanghai Ruicheng, while the second-largest shareholder is Hainan Ruicheng Enterprise Management Center (Limited Partnership) with a 49% stake [5][6]. - The company is classified as a private securities investment fund manager and is located in Hongkou District, Shanghai [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The private equity sector has seen a trend of seasoned analysts transitioning from brokerage firms, with several notable departures from CITIC Securities in 2025 [6]. - Notably, former Chief Strategist Chen Guo also left CITIC Securities earlier in the year to join Dongfang Wealth, highlighting a shift in talent within the industry [6].

Core Insights - Ding Luming, former Chief Analyst of Financial Engineering at CITIC Securities, announced his departure from a 16-year sell-side career to establish Shanghai Ruicheng Private Fund Management Co., aiming to create a Chinese version of "Bridgewater Fund" [1][2][3] Company Overview - Shanghai Ruicheng Private Fund Management Co. was established in April 2025 and completed registration on July 14, 2025 [3] - Ding Luming has a strong academic background with a Master's in Financial Mathematics from Tongji University and has been recognized multiple times as a top analyst [3] Investment Strategy - Ding Luming has developed an innovative "quantitative fundamental" research system, focusing on the Kondratiev wave theory within economic cycles, which he applies to asset allocation and market trend predictions [3] - The strategy emphasizes absolute returns through large asset allocation and timing, fostering long-term investment habits among investors [3] Industry Trends - The private equity sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a significant number of top managers being quantitative private equity firms [4] - As of Q1 2025, the scale of public quantitative equity funds reached 302.588 billion, while by June 2025, there were 39 private quantitative fund managers managing over 10 billion, accounting for nearly half of the total [4] Talent Acquisition - The definition of talent in the quantitative finance sector is evolving, with a shift towards valuing mathematical and computational skills over traditional finance backgrounds [4][5] - A notable trend is the preference for candidates with strong quantitative analysis and programming skills, as opposed to those with purely financial education [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Ding Luming, the former chief quantitative analyst at CITIC Securities, has transitioned from a sell-side career to establish a private equity fund management company named Shanghai Ruicheng Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1][2][8] Company Information - Shanghai Ruicheng Private Fund was established on April 21, 2025, and completed its registration as a private securities investment fund manager on July 14, 2025. The registered capital is 10 million yuan, and the company is located in Hongkou District, Shanghai, with its office in Pudong New District. It currently employs five full-time staff, all of whom hold fund industry qualifications [4][5]. - The major shareholder of Ruicheng Private Fund is Ding Luming, who holds 51% of the shares, while the second shareholder, Hainan Ruicheng Enterprise Management Center (Limited Partnership), holds 49% [6]. Leadership Background - Ding Luming has a master's degree in financial mathematics from Tongji University and is a qualified actuary with 17 years of experience in the securities industry. He previously worked at Haitong Securities and CITIC Securities, where he held various senior positions, including chief analyst and executive general manager [6][7]. - Ding Luming has developed a "quantitative fundamental" research system and has been recognized for his accurate predictions of major market trends and turning points [7]. Strategic Vision - Ding Luming aims to create a professional team to manage the private fund, focusing on absolute returns through large asset allocation and timing strategies. He plans to incorporate mature quantitative strategies into product management [8][9]. - The company aspires to become a Chinese equivalent of Bridgewater Associates, indicating a strong ambition for growth and influence in the private equity sector [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of Ding Luming, a prominent quantitative analyst from CITIC Securities, to the private equity sector by founding Shanghai Ruicheng Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. [2][11] Company Information - Shanghai Ruicheng Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. was established on April 21, 2025, and completed its registration as a private securities investment fund manager on July 14, 2025. The registered capital is 10 million yuan, and the company is located in Hongkou District, Shanghai [4][6]. - The company currently has 5 full-time employees, all of whom hold fund industry qualifications [5][6]. Ownership Structure - Ding Luming is the major shareholder, holding 51% of the shares, while the second-largest shareholder is Hainan Ruicheng Enterprise Management Center (Limited Partnership), which holds 49% [7][8]. Background of Ding Luming - Ding Luming holds a master's degree in financial mathematics from Tongji University and has 17 years of experience in the securities industry. He previously worked at Haitong Securities and CITIC Securities, where he served as the chief analyst in financial engineering and later as the executive general manager of the research and development department [8][10]. - During his career, he developed a "quantitative fundamental" research system and has been recognized for accurately predicting major trends and turning points in the capital market [10]. Strategic Vision - Ding Luming aims to create a professional team and establish a private fund management company that focuses on absolute returns through large asset allocation and timing strategies, utilizing economic cycle theories such as the Kondratiev wave [12][13]. - He expresses confidence in building a Chinese version of the "Bridgewater Fund" and plans to invest all his energy into this new venture [13].