Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 212.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.22% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.16 billion yuan, down 3.99% year-on-year [2] - Total assets at the end of Q1 stood at 51.55 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.29% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.33%, a decline of 15 basis points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 3.22% year-on-year to 2127.74 billion yuan, with net profit down 3.99% to 841.56 billion yuan [2] - Total assets increased by 8.29% year-on-year to 51.55 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% [2] Loan and Deposit Growth - Government financing has driven growth in investment assets, while loan growth has slightly slowed due to demand factors [6] - Deposit growth has shown a slight recovery, influenced by macroeconomic policies [6] Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.33%, reflecting a decline due to repricing effects [6] - Fee and commission income has seen a narrowing decline, with potential for recovery in the upcoming quarters [6] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% at the end of 2024 [7] - Individual loan risks are expected to be manageable, supported by a solid customer base and prudent risk management [7] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain stable operations despite rising pressures, with projected revenues of 817.5 billion yuan, 833 billion yuan, and 880.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating based on the company's strong customer base, diversified business, and stable dividend policy [8]

5月13日，安永发布的《中国上市银行2024年回顾及未来展望》（以下简称《报告》）指出，银行业在 进入"低利率、低息差"周期的同时，复杂多变的宏观环境和地缘政治冲突给上市银行的经营发展带来重 大挑战，促使银行从规模导向转向价值创造。2024年，银行业通过深耕金融"五篇大文章"，在传统金融 服务之外寻求新的业务增长点。 安永大中华区金融服务首席合伙人忻怡表示："当前的低利率环境预计还将持续一段时期。展望2025 年，中国经济将继续回升向好，上市银行也将面临更多机遇，但不确定性和挑战犹存。上市银行需紧跟 政策导向，在服务实体经济和国家战略中，加速转型，寻求业务发展新突破；在全方位服务内需中打造 营收增长点，在穿越经济周期、保持战略定力和拥抱行业变革中，谋划出一条契合自身的高质量发展之 路。" 净息差持续下降 不过，随着今年一季度债券等金融市场的波动，以及全球贸易摩擦居高不下，42家A股上市银行2025年 一季度净利润同比减少1.09%，营业收入同比减少1.72%；2025年一季度末资产总额较2024年末增长 3.94%；加权平均不良贷款率为1.23%，较2024年末下降0.01个百分点；拨备覆盖率为237.99% ...

5月以来，地方性中小银行的存款利率调整动作仍在继续。近日，多地中小银行密集出手下调，部分机构三年及五年期的中长期限存款利率跌破 2%，各期限利率全面迈入"1时代"。 不过，在多数银行纷纷下调存款利率的同时，部分机构却选择逆势上调。新疆库尔勒富民村镇银行于5月12日下午公告称，自当日起存款利率上 调。记者对比该行此前公告发现，此番上调的是整存整取三个月期、六个月期、一年期、二年期的利率，上调幅度在25BP或30BP，三年期、五年 期利率保持1.95%不变。值得一提的是，此番调整后，该行一年期和两年期利率分别为2.0%、2.05%，均高于三年期、五年期，出现长短期"倒 挂"现象。 记者5月13日以储户身份致电该行客服热线，工作人员确认了二年及更短期限存款利率上调的事项，不过该行于13日午间删除了上述公告。 中小银行存款利率调整节奏不一 多地中小银行于近日对存款利率进行了调整，部分机构在调整后各期限利率全面迈入"1时代"。 每经记者｜李玉雯 每经编辑｜张益铭 "在市场利率普遍下行的趋势下，少数银行选择反其道而行之，对中短期存款利率进行上调，这种现象属于个例，不具有普遍性和主流性。"融360 数字科技研究院高级分析师 ...

Core Insights - The report by Ernst & Young highlights the challenges faced by listed banks in China, including a "low interest rate, low spread" environment and increased external uncertainties, prompting banks to adopt both growth and efficiency strategies for high-quality development [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The average net interest margin for 58 listed banks in 2024 is projected to be 1.52%, a decrease of 17 basis points from the previous year, marking a continuous decline for five years [1] - By the end of 2024, total assets of listed banks are expected to reach 315.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [2] Group 2: Revenue Structure - Non-interest income is increasingly seen as a cost-effective way to alleviate pressure on capital adequacy ratios, leading banks to diversify their revenue streams beyond traditional lending [2] - Large commercial banks are leveraging their full-license operations to expand into financial investments, wealth management, and insurance, while smaller banks focus on local customer needs and services [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Financial investments have risen to account for 30.51% of total assets by the end of 2024, with a notable increase in bond investments, which constitute 87.63% of financial investments [3] - Agricultural Bank of China reported the highest growth in financial investments at 23.5%, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China also showing significant increases [3] Group 4: Liability Management - The trend of increasing time deposits continues, with the proportion of time deposits reaching 59.23% by the end of 2024, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous year [3] - To stabilize net interest margins, banks are advised to enhance liability quality management and explore diversified funding sources while balancing asset and liability management [4] Group 5: Capital Adequacy - By the end of 2024, the average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for listed banks is expected to rise to 11.53%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The implementation of new capital regulations and support from government policies are anticipated to further strengthen the capital base of listed banks [5]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《汇率压力降低放行货币政策，结构 性投资机会将再次展开》 - 2025.05.09 宏观研究 央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率波动或有所加大 投资要点 （1）适度宽松货币政策总基调不变，从择机调整到灵活把握。 本次报告在货币政策思路方面延续中央经济工作会议和"425"中共 中央政治局会议精神，坚持适度宽松货币政策的基调，但政策节奏或 有所调整，操作节奏或有变化，表述从"择机调整优化政策力度和节 奏"，调整为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，或意味着在外部环 境无显著变化的情况下，短期或更关注存量货币政策落地，增量货币 政策出台概率有所降低。 （2）央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率或存在回调风险。央行 在专栏 4 特别强调了利率风险问题，关注短期长期国债利率或存在回 调的风险。此外，本次报告删除了资金空转表述， ...

安永5月13日发布《中国上市银行2024年回顾及未来展望》报告，分析了中国58家上市银行2024年度的经营业绩、资产质量、业务发展、经营模式等方面的 最新变化。报告称，上市银行息差持续收窄，经营环境不确定性加大，为了应对挑战，各银行降本增效，多措并举保持业绩稳定。 安永同步发布的《中国42家A股上市银行2025年一季度业绩概览》显示，42家A股上市银行2025年一季度净利润同比减少1.09%，营业收入同比减少1.72%； 2025年一季度末资产总额较2024年末增长3.94%；加权平均不良贷款率1.23%，较2024年末下降0.01个百分点；拨备覆盖率237.99%，较2024年末下降1.98个 百分点。总体来看，上市银行2025年一季度仍面临较大的经营压力。 受市场利率持续下行、存量按揭贷款利率下调和持续让利实体经济等因素影响，2024年上市银行净息差进一步收窄，平均净息差为1.52%，较上年下降17个 基点，已连续五年下降，最近三年净息差均低于2%。受净息差收窄的影响，上市银行2024年度净利息收入同比下降2.20%，连续2年下降。 安永大中华区金融服务首席合伙人忻怡表示，当前的低利率环境预计还将持续一段 ...

广发证券发布研报称，24年、25Q1上市银行息差继续收窄，资产端收益率下行是行业共识，负债端成 本改善支撑息差降幅趋缓。展望25年全年，预计息差降幅逐季企稳，整体优于24年。该行认为，今年板 块预期回报率应当锚定在ROE，区域经济的阿尔法和投资收益低占比将成为持续的超额收益来源，重点 推荐招商银行(600036.SH)、宁波银行(002142.SZ)、青岛银行(002948.SZ)。 负债端：价格方面，42家上市银行24A计息负债成本率1.98%(同比变动-12bp，下同)，其中，存款成本 率1.80%(-15bp)，同业负债成本率2.42%(-2bp)，发行债券成本率2.72%(-15bp)，同业存单发行利率2.01% (-43bp)，存款成本下行有效缓解息差收窄压力。结构方面，24A同业负债占比(分母为计息负债，下 同)11.58%(-0.35pct)，发行债券占比12.54%(+1.15pct)，存款占比72.49%(+0.24pct)，其中，活期存款占存 款37.93%(-1.69pct)，存款定期化趋势延续。25Q1同业负债占比11.07%(较24A变动-0.51pct，下同)，发 行债券占比12. ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in deposit interest rates by multiple small and medium-sized banks indicate a significant shift towards lower rates, with many long-term fixed deposit products falling below 2% following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) monetary policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks, including Hami City Commercial Bank and Liaocheng Hunan Rural Commercial Bank, have lowered their deposit rates, with some long-term fixed deposit rates now entering the "1 era" [1][2]. - As of May 8, Hami City Commercial Bank's new deposit rates for personal fixed deposits are 1.5% for 1-year, 1.6% for 2-year, 1.8% for 3-year, and 1.85% for 5-year, reflecting a decrease of 10 to 15 basis points [1]. - Liaocheng Hunan Rural Commercial Bank's adjusted rates for 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year deposits are now 1.89%, 1.98%, and 1.98%, respectively, down from previous rates of 2.1% and 2.16% [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Rate Cuts - The recent rate cuts are primarily driven by the pressure on banks' net interest margins, which have reached historical lows of 1.38% for city commercial banks and 1.73% for rural commercial banks as of Q4 2024 [2]. - The adjustments are a direct response to the PBOC's recent monetary policy actions aimed at reducing banks' funding costs and alleviating the pressure on net interest margins, thereby creating room for banks to offer lower loan rates to the real economy [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market interest rates are expected to continue on a downward trend, suggesting that deposit rates may further decline in the near future [3]. - Financial analysts recommend that ordinary savers adjust their asset allocation strategies in light of the diminishing high-yield assets, suggesting diversification and a focus on different liquidity and risk profiles in investment products [3].

一、资产增速较低快，利润超过浙商银行 2024 年末，徽商银行总资产突破 2 万亿元，达到 2.01 万亿元 ，同比增长 11.49% 。当年实现营业 收入 371.75 亿元 ，同比增长 1.62% ；实现归母净利润 154.14 亿元 ，同比增长 6.80% 。 徽商银行前身是 1997 年在安徽省合肥市 31 家城市信用合作社基础上合并而成，设立时公司名称为 合肥城市合作银行 ， 1998 年更名为合肥市商业银行股份有限公司， 2005 年更名为徽商银行股份有限 公司并进一步吸收合并了安徽省内芜湖、马鞍山、安庆、淮北和蚌埠 5 家城市商业银行和六安、淮南、 铜陵、阜阳等地的 7 家城市信用社。 徽商银行总资产保持高速增长，营收增速连续多年放缓，利润增速适中。 截至 2024 年末，徽商银行拥有 21 家分行 及 464 个对个营业机构，主要集中在安徽（ 省内 16 个地 级市全覆盖 ），另在南京、北京、深圳、成都和宁波也有分行（ 2020 年徽商银行收购包商银行的北 京、深圳、成都和宁波分行，跨区域发展取得重要突破）。但公司 主要经营仍是集中在安徽地区， 2024 年贷款金额在安徽地区的占比高达 88. ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks reported a decline in both operating income and net profit for Q1 2025, attributed to narrowing net interest margins and negative growth in non-interest income, although core revenue capacity showed marginal improvement [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - Total operating income for the listed banks reached 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year [1]. - The overall net interest margin decreased by 13 basis points to 1.43%, with a smaller decline compared to the previous year's 17 basis points [5][7]. Individual Bank Performance - Among state-owned banks, Bank of China had the highest revenue growth at 2.56%, while Agricultural Bank of China led in net profit growth at 2.2% [5]. - In the joint-stock banks category, Minsheng Bank reported a revenue increase of 7.41% but a net profit decline of 5.13% [5]. - Qingdao Bank showed strong performance in city commercial banks with a revenue growth of 9.69% and a net profit increase of 16.42% [5]. Income Composition - Interest income for listed banks fell by 1.7% year-on-year, with both net interest margin contraction and negative non-interest income impacting revenue [5][9]. - Non-interest income saw a significant decline of 4% year-on-year, primarily due to bond market volatility and a high base effect from the previous year [9]. Asset Quality - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for the listed banks was 1.23%, a slight decrease of 1 basis point from the end of 2024 [10][11]. - The overall asset quality pressure has eased, with a stable NPL generation rate of approximately 0.67% [12][13]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict that net interest margins will continue to narrow throughout the year, but the decline may be less severe due to improvements in deposit costs and supportive policies [7][8].