大北农发布年报，2024 年实现营收287.67 亿元（yoy-13.85%），归母净利3.46 亿元（yoy+115.91%）， 扣非净利2.21 亿元（yoy+111.02%）。其中Q4 实现营收86.25 亿元（yoy-8.81%，qoq+22.39%），归母 净利2.12 亿元（yoy+116.78%，qoq-26.63%）。2024 年盈利低于我们此前4.0 亿元的预期，主系Q4 饲料 盈利略低于预期所致。公司养猪成本持续优化，中长期转基因种业或贡献较高业绩增量。维持"买入"评 级。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到当前生猪供应仍较为充分，我们下调25-26 年猪价预测进而下调公司盈利预测至7.3/5.0 亿元（下 调幅度34%、69%）；新增27 年盈利预测10.0亿元。可比公司2025 年Wind 一致预期PE 均值为17 倍， 考虑公司养殖成本持续优化，转基因性状优势突出，给予公司25 年30 倍PE，目标价5.12元（前值5.56 元），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：转基因品种推广进度或效果/种业监管力度/猪价表现不及预期等。 猪价回升叠加成本优化，2024 年公司实现扭亏饲料及动保业务营收同比下滑为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rice seed industry is experiencing growth against the trend, with profit performance exceeding expectations; the domestic corn seed industry maintains its leading advantage and demonstrates operational resilience; the overseas corn seed industry may encounter a transformative turning point and is expected to benefit from changes in the international trade landscape, leading to market expansion opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Rice Seed Industry - The rice seed sector achieved a revenue increase of 13% in 2024, driven by the large-scale promotion of core rice varieties, resulting in a net profit of 340 million yuan, with a growth rate exceeding 50% [1]. - The company reported a total revenue of 8.566 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million yuan, down 43% [1]. Group 2: Corn Seed Industry - The domestic corn seed industry generated revenue of 2.121 billion yuan despite high inventory pressures, showcasing strong operational resilience [1]. - The overseas corn seed business faced challenges due to falling international grain prices and extreme weather, leading to stable sales but a decline in sales revenue to 2.9 billion yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32%, and a net profit of -2.09 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop in sales volume due to increased market competition and supply [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The domestic hybrid rice seed industry is entering a destocking phase starting in 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in the rice seed market [2]. - The company’s operational capabilities are expected to improve, potentially leading to high-quality profit growth [2]. - The company maintains a strong investment rating, projecting net profits of 432 million yuan, 605 million yuan, and 859 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with diluted EPS of 0.33, 0.46, and 0.65 yuan respectively [3].

/D T 生物制造产业 交流 群/ 让专业的人聚在一起：绿色化工/生物基/食品和农业/美丽健康等10000+产业同行❤↓ DT合成生物制造交流群 陈经理 扫码添加微信,备注"单位、职务、姓名",进入群聊 Tel: 153-8139-7601 (微信同号) 生物制造产业社群专属 近日， 【SynBioCon】 获 悉， 4 月 21 日，由中国科学院天津工业生物技术研究所牵头承担的 国家重点研发计划 "合成生物学"重点专项 ——" 二氧化碳人工从头合成蛋白质"项目 启动会在中国 科学院天津工业生物技术研究所举行。 该项目对于推进我国绿色低碳发展、实现 "碳达峰、碳中和"与"粮食安全"的国家战略目标具有重大 意义。本次会议的召开， 标志着二氧化碳人工从头合成蛋白质研发工作全面启动。作为合成生物学 领域典型的学科交叉项目，其融合化学与生物技术，开创了二氧化碳和铵盐高效合成蛋白质的全新路 径 。项目通过解析碳氮固定原理、设计人工杂合系统，有望将蛋白质合成速率提升数十倍以上，为 蛋白质的工业化生产奠定基础，为全球碳资源利用和粮食可持续供应提供 "中国方案"。 从淀粉到蛋白，天工所的二氧化碳从头合成之路 早在2021年， ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is positive, with expectations for higher returns compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [52]. Core Views - The agricultural product prices have shown a divergence recently, with grain prices continuing to rise while livestock prices have stabilized after an initial increase. The importance of domestic food security has been highlighted by tariff countermeasures, and the policy environment for industry development is expected to continue improving, indicating ongoing investment opportunities in the sector [5][18]. - The livestock industry chain is experiencing stagnation in production capacity growth, with the valuation of the sector at a low point, suggesting long-term investment opportunities. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [5][19]. - The poultry sector is witnessing fluctuations in chicken prices, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry Chain - **Pork**: The production capacity growth has stagnated, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, indicating potential long-term investment value. The average price of live pigs is 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week [5][19]. - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. - **Eggs**: The average price for yellow chickens has shown a slight increase, with prices at 10.69 yuan/kg for Lihua yellow chickens, up 0.32 yuan from last month [21]. Planting Industry Chain - **Seed Industry**: The recent announcement of 99 genetically modified corn and soybean varieties pending approval indicates a significant expansion in domestic GM crop varieties, which is expected to enhance agricultural production efficiency [22]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2291 yuan/ton and wheat at 2434 yuan/ton, suggest potential investment opportunities in the context of reduced imports and tariff measures against U.S. agricultural products [22][11]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (Buy) [3].

Group 1: Food Security - China adheres to a national food security strategy focused on domestic production, ensuring capacity, moderate imports, and technological support, with a strict land protection policy [3] - In 2024, China's grain production is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with per capita grain availability at 500 kg, significantly above the international safety line of 400 kg [3] - The proportion of grain imports from the U.S. is low, primarily consisting of feed grains that have strong substitutability and ample international supply, ensuring domestic food supply remains unaffected [3][5] Group 2: Energy Security - China has established a multi-source energy supply system, maintaining an energy self-sufficiency rate above 80%, with stable annual crude oil production exceeding 200 million tons and continuous growth in natural gas production [4] - The share of U.S. energy imports in China's total energy consumption is minimal, and the country has diversified its energy import sources, ensuring that any reduction in U.S. imports does not impact domestic energy supply [5] - The government plans to continue implementing the national food security strategy and energy security strategy to ensure stable domestic supply and market stability [5] Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite U.S. tariff increases affecting multiple economies, China's economy showed resilience with a 6.9% growth in exports in the first quarter and significant increases in domestic consumption during holidays [7] - The strong performance of Chinese products, such as smart panoramic cameras and domestic brands, indicates robust market demand both domestically and internationally [7] - The government expresses confidence in achieving its economic growth target of 5% for the year, emphasizing strategic focus and internal development [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that multiple government departments are confident in achieving this year's economic and social development goals through various policy measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development [1][3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has outlined several measures to support employment, stabilize foreign trade, promote consumption, expand effective investment, and create a stable development environment [3]. - Specific initiatives in employment support include encouraging companies to maintain jobs, enhancing vocational training, and improving public employment services [3]. Group 2 - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of promoting consumption through expanding service consumption, strengthening care for the elderly, and boosting automobile consumption [3]. - The Chinese financial market is currently stable, with the RMB exchange rate against the USD around 7.3, indicating a controlled currency environment despite fluctuations in the US debt and dollar exchange rates [5]. - The NDRC has assured that China's grain and energy supply will remain stable, with a focus on domestic production and minimal reliance on imports from the US, particularly in the context of the US imposing tariffs [7][8]. Group 3 - China's grain security strategy emphasizes self-sufficiency, with a projected grain output of 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, ensuring food security well above the international standard [7]. - The energy supply system in China is robust, with an energy self-sufficiency rate of over 80%, and a diverse energy mix that includes coal, oil, gas, nuclear, and renewable sources [8]. - The NDRC plans to continue implementing the national food security strategy and enhance energy security measures to ensure stable domestic supply and market operations [8].

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 农业增强韧性，持续推荐低估值龙头 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250421-20250425） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资要点： 政治局会议提出："经贸斗争"（视为严峻且长期）、"要强化底线思维，充分备 足预案，扎实做好经济工作"（明确底线、提高底线）、"用好用足更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"（态度延续明确）、"要不断完善稳就业稳经济的 政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策"（为 达到目的，方式可以更灵活），等等。 内需：消费从后周期属性切换为周期驱动力 联系人 "要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消费，增强消 ...

Group 1: National Food Security Strategy - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes a self-reliant food security strategy, focusing on domestic production, moderate imports, and technological support [1][2] - China has achieved 21 consecutive years of grain production growth, with 2024's grain output expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, ensuring food security well above the international standard of 400 kg per capita [1][2] Group 2: Import Dependency and Trade Adjustments - The import volume of grains such as sorghum, corn, and soybeans from the U.S. is low, primarily consisting of feed grains that have strong substitutability and ample international supply [2] - China's reliance on U.S. soybeans has significantly decreased due to increased domestic production and a shift in import sources to South America [2] Group 3: Agricultural Production and Spring Planting - The spring planting season is progressing well, with an estimated planting area of 1.79 billion mu for grain, including 960 million mu for spring crops, showing an increase from the previous year [2] - The area for winter wheat is stable at 340 million mu, while the area for winter rapeseed has increased for seven consecutive years, indicating strong growth prospects [3]

智通财经APP获悉，4月28日，国务院新闻办公室于上午举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委副主任赵辰 昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍稳就业稳 经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕表示，我国将出台 实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措，包括五方面内容。分别涉及就业、外贸发展、促进消 费、扩大有效投资以及营造稳定发展的良好环境。 具体来看，在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈 等支持、加强就业公共服务等举措; 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度，帮助出口企业规避风险，扩大服务 产品"出海"，鼓励外资企业境内再投资等举措; 在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务消费，强化失能老年人照护，推动汽车消费扩容，构建技能导向的 薪酬分配制度等举措; 在积极扩大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等举措; 在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势、 加大对实体经济的金融支持等举措 ...

Core Viewpoint - The press conference held by the State Council Information Office emphasized the importance of implementing policies to stabilize employment and the economy while promoting high-quality development, particularly focusing on food and energy security strategies [1] Group 1: Food Security - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to implement the national food security strategy with higher standards [1] - The focus will be on ensuring stable domestic food supply and smooth market operations [1] Group 2: Energy Security - The commission will also advance the new energy security strategy in a pragmatic manner [1] - There will be an emphasis on international cooperation to ensure energy stability [1]