本期主题：2026搞钱指南 在波谲云诡的经济浪潮中，有人仰望星空，预判大势走向；有人深耕一域，洞察人性明暗；还有人俯身田野，在数据与生活的交汇处寻找答案。 搜狐号有这样三位市场观察者，他们以各自的方式，构建了对复杂世界的理解框架，他们或许视角不同、领域各异，却共同指向一个核心：在充 满噪音的市场中，唯有建立理性的认知体系，才能穿越迷雾、做出决策。 @金市大鲤，黄金市场十年洞察者。他坚信"投资是人性修行场"，从追涨杀跌的众生相，到绝境翻身的孤勇者，见证过贪婪与恐惧如何左右盈亏。在市场狂 潮中，他始终告诫：理性和纪律是唯一的护城河，自救者天救。于他而言，解读金价波动是术，理解人心才是道。 金市大鲤：主要有两点。第一，对于市场判断而言，当遇到交易不顺或者连续亏损时，人容易觉得被市场"针对"，于是向外寻求"大腿"，期待与"高人"交 流，指望别人成为自己的英雄。但真相是：失败时若只顾寻找借口、盲从他人，只会耗尽本金、一无所获。没有人能替你负责，最终能拯救你的，只有自 己。 第二，关于善意与边界。不要因为自己赚了钱，就觉得能拯救别人。市场里没有谁需要你去"救"，你也救不了。各人有各人的因果，各自的理解与认知。保 持敬畏， ...

2026年1月A股开门红收官后，步入2月来市场短期面临情绪降温和指数回调压力。在业界看来，春节前 风险偏好抬升的制约因素偏多，但本轮跨年行情启动的核心驱动并未发生根本性变化，春节后至两会前 胜率提升，若市场调整或提供新的布局窗口。近日权威基金评价机构新鲜出炉的基金评级报告，一定程 度上也为投资者借基上车提供了有益参考。 从2026年2月1日国泰海通（601211）证券发布的三年、五年、十年综合系列基金评级看，截至2026年1 月30日，汇安基金旗下共计20只（A/C类分别统计）产品获得五星评级，且权益类基金和固收类基金平 分秋色，为不同风险收益偏好的投资者构建多元化资产配置组合提供了更多元的选择。 权益基金方面，聚焦科技成长全链条的汇安成长优选混合A/C（005550/005551）同时荣膺国泰海通证券 三年期和五年期五星评级。定期报告统计，截至2025年12月31日，汇安成长优选混合A过去三年和过去 五年收益率分别为99.53%、57.20%，同期业绩比较基准分别为18.19%、2.90%；自2018年2月13日成立 以来该基金还实现翻倍回报，达147.64%，同期业绩比较基准收益率32.07%，超越基准回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced significant fluctuations in early 2026, with spot gold prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce, while insurance capital remains cautious in its investment approach [1] Group 1: Regulatory Background - In February 2025, the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice allowing insurance funds to invest in gold, marking the official opening of this investment channel [2] - The pilot investment scope includes various gold trading contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, with ten insurance companies participating in the trial [2] - Insurance companies are required to limit their gold investments to no more than 1% of their total assets as of the previous quarter, potentially bringing an additional 200 billion yuan into the gold market [2] Group 2: Investment Behavior - Most insurance institutions have not engaged in large-scale gold investments, maintaining a cautious investment pace [3] - The cautious approach is attributed to internal constraints and the nature of gold as a non-yielding asset, which conflicts with profit-driven assessment mechanisms [3] - Insurance companies are still developing their capabilities in professional research and risk management, which affects their investment decisions [3] Group 3: Long-term Strategic Value - Despite short-term caution, the strategic value of gold in insurance asset allocation is being re-evaluated, particularly for risk hedging rather than pure profit generation [4] - Gold's low correlation with traditional financial assets can enhance portfolio stability during extreme market conditions, making it a valuable asset for insurance funds [5] - The potential for expanding the pilot program exists, but any increase in participation or investment limits will depend on the risk management capabilities and operational maturity of the insurance companies involved [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - If the initial pilot runs smoothly, expansion is likely, but investment pace will remain cautious due to ongoing price increases [6] - Insurance companies, such as Ping An Life, are focusing on the role of gold in their asset allocation, emphasizing risk diversification and overall portfolio stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of a significant amount of deposits in China, estimated at 55 to 60 trillion yuan by 2026, will create a historical peak in the banking system, leading to a potential reallocation of funds and a "re-pricing" wave in deposits [2][14]. Group 1: Deposit Rates and Trends - Major banks are offering low interest rates on large time deposits, with rates around 1.4% to 1.55%, a stark contrast to rates above 5% prior to 2021 [1][13]. - The deposit renewal rate has been approximately 90% in recent years, but a decline to 80% could result in a potential outflow of around 14 trillion yuan, while maintaining the current rate could lead to about 7 trillion yuan [3][15]. Group 2: Impact of Market Conditions - The surge in household savings, exceeding 17 trillion yuan annually during 2022-2023, was driven by market volatility, leading to a significant accumulation of "excess savings" locked in long-term deposits [2][14]. - The reallocation pressure from these long-term deposits will peak in 2026, coinciding with a changing interest rate environment [2][14]. Group 3: Fund Allocation Predictions - It is anticipated that over 90% of maturing deposits will remain in the banking system as new time deposits, but an estimated 2 to 4 trillion yuan may flow into wealth management products and public funds, with 300 to 600 billion yuan expected to enter public funds [3][15]. - The shift in funds is expected to primarily favor low-risk assets, reflecting a cautious approach from residents towards higher-risk investments [5][17]. Group 4: Public Fund Strategies - Public funds are likely to attract maturing deposits through conservative products, particularly money market funds and short-term pure bond funds, which offer liquidity similar to demand deposits [6][18]. - The total scale of public funds is projected to reach 37.71 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with money market funds comprising a significant portion [6][18]. Group 5: Misconceptions about Deposit Movements - There is a misconception that maturing deposits will lead to significant outflows into the capital market; however, most funds are expected to remain within the banking system for marginal optimization [11][23]. - The release of large deposits does not necessarily correlate with increased consumer spending, as a cautious mindset persists among residents [11][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments beyond traditional bank savings due to inflation, declining interest rates, and aging demographics, suggesting that relying solely on savings poses long-term risks [3][10]. Group 1: Importance of Savings - Cash and savings remain critical for households, serving as emergency funds and financial security during unforeseen circumstances [7][8]. - It is recommended to maintain 3-6 months of living expenses in liquid savings for emergencies, but solely relying on savings can erode purchasing power over time due to inflation [10]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests allocating a portion of long-term idle funds into assets with better preservation and appreciation potential after ensuring emergency and security funds are in place [11]. - **Gold and Hard Assets**: Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, with a recommended allocation of 5%-15% of household assets [13][17]. - **Equity Assets**: Equity investments, including stocks and index funds, are expected to yield higher long-term returns compared to savings, but should be approached with a long-term perspective and psychological readiness for volatility [23][25][29]. - **Self-Health and Skills**: Investing in personal health and skills is highlighted as a core asset, emphasizing the importance of health insurance and continuous skill development to ensure long-term income stability [33][36]. - **Annuities**: Annuities are presented as a stable cash flow option for retirement, providing lifelong income and serving as a forced savings mechanism, although they come with liquidity constraints and lower returns [42][44][49]. Group 3: Holistic Financial Strategy - A well-rounded financial strategy should integrate money, health, skills, and insurance, creating a supportive structure for future security [54].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have significantly increased volatility, impacting both gold itself and related bank wealth management products, which has prompted a reassessment of asset allocation capabilities in the context of risk awareness [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in the gold market is attributed more to emotional and capital dynamics rather than fundamental shifts [2]. - The surge in gold prices at the beginning of the year was driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical risks, but market sentiment reversed with the potential appointment of a hawkish Fed chair [2]. - The concentration of profit-taking led to a significant market downturn, exacerbated by leveraged futures liquidations and quantitative trading strategies [2]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, institutions maintain a strong long-term outlook for gold, viewing it as a core asset in the new macroeconomic cycle [3]. - Gold is evolving from a traditional safe-haven asset to a sovereign reserve asset, with its pricing logic shifting from financial cycles to monetary cycles [3]. Group 3: Strategic and Tactical Importance - The strategic role of gold in asset allocation remains unchanged, but its tactical importance is increasing, with a focus on flexible adjustments to respond to geopolitical and monetary uncertainties [4]. - Gold is viewed as a "satellite" asset in wealth management, enhancing portfolio resilience rather than determining absolute returns [6]. - The allocation of gold in investment portfolios is typically controlled between 5% to 15%, aimed at improving overall portfolio stability [6]. Group 4: Product Design and Risk Management - Wealth management products linked to gold have shown minor fluctuations, reflecting the transmission of underlying asset risks to higher-level products [5]. - The design of wealth management products emphasizes risk diversification and hedging against stock and bond volatility, with gold serving as a stabilizer due to its low correlation with mainstream assets [6][7]. - The impact of market shocks on most wealth management products is considered manageable, as gold does not provide cash flow returns and primarily serves a hedging function [7]. Group 5: Investor Psychology and Education - The recent market dynamics challenge the perception that safe-haven assets are devoid of volatility, necessitating a shift in investor expectations [8]. - Investors must recognize that gold allocation involves accepting price volatility in exchange for long-term stability in extreme conditions [9]. - There is a need for improved investor education to address misconceptions about the nature of gold as a financial instrument and the realities of net asset value fluctuations in a fully net-valued environment [9].

过去几年，黄金的"避险神话"被反复翻炒。疫情时它涨，地缘冲突时它涨，甚至美联储降息预期也能让它一飞冲天。许多人被社交媒体上的"暴富故事"吸 引，认为黄金是普通人对抗通胀的"终极武器"。于是，有人抵押房产追高，有人借钱加仓，甚至把养老钱砸向金市。 2026年的黄金市场，像一部现实版《华尔街之狼》。有人一夜暴富，有人血本无归。但那些在黄金里栽了跟头的投资者，如今回过头来看，输掉的不仅是 金钱，更是对人性欲望的失控。 一、黄金的"诱惑"：从"稳赚不赔"到"高位接盘" 但黄金的逻辑，早已变了。 二、贪婪的陷阱：为什么越涨越买？ "害怕错过"的焦虑 当金价从600元/克飙升至800元/克，市场情绪像野火般蔓延。投资者怕"错过最后一班车"，哪怕明知价格虚高，仍咬牙入场。这种"FOMO心理"（害怕错 过）让理性判断荡然无存。 "赌徒心态"的作祟 "涨了还能再涨""跌了马上反弹"——这种自欺欺人的想法，让许多人陷入"倒金字塔式加仓"。越涨买的越多，越亏扛得越久，最终被套牢。 对"专家"的盲目崇拜 直播间里的"黄金导师"、社交平台的"大V分析"，甚至街头巷尾的"理财阿姨"，都在鼓吹"黄金永涨"。投资者把专业判断交给他人，却忘了 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 大类资产月度策略（2026.2） 乍暖还寒试韧性，估值修复入深水 1. 货币-信用"风火轮"：双宽格局持续 信用方面，12 月我国新增社融 22075 亿元，高于万得一致调查值（18153 亿 元）。其中新增人民币贷款 9100 亿元,高于万得一致调查值（6794 亿元）。 广义货币条件指数边际改善，新增社融数据超预期，抵消高基数引发的信用 脉冲回落，金融对实体支撑坚实。当前格局延续"宽货币+宽信用"的双宽 组合，资金面趋紧风险较低，金融条件对宏观与资产表现形成托底。 2. 下一阶段大类资产价格展望 指数开门红，估值修复渐入深水区。1 月 A 股延续强势，中证 500 以 12.12% 领跑，新开户数近 500 万反映资产迁移热度。然而 2 月初受沃什"降息+缩 表"鹰派主张冲击，分母端压力陡增，贵金属剧烈回调，市场流动性边际收 缩。尽管短期拖累指数，但释放流动性有利于缓解对其它板块的吸血效应， 降低长线泡沫破裂风险。当前市场对科创及互联网板块的高资本开支容忍度 降至冰点，业绩验证阈值抬高。1 月 PMI 处于荣枯线下，经济基本面尚不支 持全面牛，市场步入去杠杆与去伪 ...

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...

据央视财经消息，贵金属方面，市场进一步消化美联储货币政策前景，上周暴跌引发的恐慌情绪消散，纽约黄金 与白银期货价格强势反弹。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所4日交割的黄金期价收于每盎司4935.00美元，涨幅为6.07%；3日交割的白银期价收于 每盎司83.301美元，涨幅为8.17%。另据新华社消息，金价创下2009年以来最大单日涨幅。 截至2月4日北京时间15:17，伦敦金现货价格报5068.05美元/盎司。此外，国内各品牌金饰价格也普遍上涨。周生 生足金饰品报1600元/克，较前一日1498元/克涨102元，老庙黄金今日金饰价报1571元/克。 | 品牌 | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 周大福 | 1495 | +0.40% | | 老凤祥 | 1518 | +1.34% | | 周六福 | 1490 | +0.40% | | 周生生 | 1498 | +0.94% | | 六福珠宝 | 1493 | +0.40% | 多家国际投行的分析指出，黄金市场的需求基本面没有改变，全球央行购金、私人投资者增持黄金从而多元化资 产配置仍是推高金价的主要力量，白银价格继续 ...