1月21日，AI产业链股局部活跃，CPO、集成电路等概念涨幅居前，截至收盘，中证人工智能主题指数上涨1.6%，上证科创板人工智能指数上涨1.0%。相关 ETF受资金关注，Wind数据显示，人工智能ETF易方达（159819）近一周合计"吸金"超10亿元。 中信建投证券指出，当前AI产业动态密集，海外xAI、Anthropic陆续融资，国内"人工智能+制造政策"推出，智谱和MiniMax上市大涨，后续DeepSeek-V4推 出有望引发新一轮AI应用热潮。随着模型能力不断提升，尤其是推理与长窗口成本的显著下降，AI下游应用场景正加速进入商业化验证阶段，重点关注搜 索和营销、Coding、多模态、Agent、AI for Science领域，相关公司商业化进程有望进一步加速。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The AI sector continues to rebound, with the lowest fee artificial intelligence ETF, Huaxia (159381), rising over 2% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - Tianfu Communication, a leading optical device company, announced an expected net profit of 1.881 billion to 2.15 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [1] - The growth in Tianfu Communication's performance is attributed to the accelerated development of the AI industry and the ongoing construction of global data centers, which have driven stable demand for high-speed optical device products [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia ETF tracks an index with over 50% weight in CPO and covers domestic software and AI application companies, providing high elasticity [2] - The top three weighted stocks in the ETF are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [2] - The ETF has a low comprehensive fee rate of only 0.20%, making it the lowest among similar products [2]

盘面上看，保险、半导体板块走低，军工、石油、燃气、煤炭、钢铁等板块上扬，商业航天、可控核聚 变概念、CPO概念等活跃。 22日，两市股指午后发力拉升，沪指翻红，创业板指涨超1%，A股市场近3600股飘红。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.14%报4122.58点，深证成指涨0.5%，创业板指涨1.01%，沪深北三市合计成交约 2.72万亿元。 德邦证券指出，短期内较高的流动性水平下市场热点有望持续活跃，但政策方面对市场的影响也将持续 存在，短期内或更多以偏强震荡为主，可关注前期市场关注度相对较低的部分科技子板块。中长期来 看，"十五五"规划引领下政策托底（央行"适度宽松"货币政策）与产业升级（"反内卷"、半导体、商业 航天、可控核聚变等）形成长期支撑，且此前央行结构性降息及提出降准降息还有一定空间释放宽松信 号，市场慢牛格局有望延续。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Core Insights - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang announced the NVIDIA Vera Rubin POD AI supercomputer and NVIDIA Spectrum-X Ethernet co-packaged optical devices at CES 2026, which may accelerate demand for CPO, optical modules, and liquid cooling solutions [1][2] Group 1: Product Announcements - The Vera Rubin NVL72 cabinet features 20 trillion transistors, with NVFP4 inference performance reaching 3.6 EFLOPS and training performance at 2.5 EFLOPS [1] - The LPDDR5X memory capacity is 54 TB, 2.5 times that of the previous generation, while total HBM4 memory is 20.7 TB, 1.5 times the previous generation, and HBM4 bandwidth is 1.6 PB/s, 2.8 times the previous generation [1] Group 2: CPO Industry Evolution - The CPO industry is evolving rapidly under the silicon photonics trend, which is expected to drive demand for silicon photonic engines and related technologies, including CW light sources, optical fibers, FAU, and MPO/MTP [3] - The silicon photonic engine is a core component of CPO and is crucial for traditional optical module manufacturers, indicating a significant opportunity for leading firms to deepen their market presence [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key investment areas include silicon photonic engines and CW light sources, with recommended stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Yuanjie Technology, and Tianfu Communication [4] - Additional beneficiaries in the silicon photonics equipment and optical interconnect sectors include Robotech, Zhishang Technology, and Juguang Technology [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Tianfu Communication's performance meets expectations, with optimism regarding contributions from new products [1] Financial Performance - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 to be between 1.88 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [1] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.83 billion to 2.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.19% to 60.40% [1] Market Conditions - Anticipation of accelerated appreciation of the RMB in Q4 2025 may further exacerbate the negative impact of exchange losses on the company's performance [1] - The company's core products are in a generational transition period, with customer ordering patterns and upstream material supply significantly affecting quarterly performance [1] Competitive Position - The company is leading in the 1.6T and CPO layout, with deep binding to top-tier customers, positioning it to benefit from the release of industry demand [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.88-2.15 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-60%, driven by the acceleration of the AI industry and global data center construction [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be 2.015 billion yuan, a 50% increase year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter net profit is estimated to be between 416 million and 684 million yuan, with a median of 550 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.9% [1] - Financial expenses have increased year-on-year due to exchange losses, which negatively impacted profit growth [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The demand for high-speed optical devices is expected to grow steadily due to the rapid development of the AI industry and the construction of global data centers [1] - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the upcoming release of NVIDIA's GB300 system and the associated demand for 1.6T optical modules [2] - The company has established a strong position in the CPO market, with plans to develop new products suitable for CPO applications [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand, with the first phase expected to be operational by mid-2024 and the second phase already completed [3] - Future capacity adjustments will be made based on customer demand, which is anticipated to enhance revenue and profit growth [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 2.01 billion yuan, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 3.19 billion and 4.18 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company maintains a leading position in the 1.6T and CPO sectors, with strong ties to key customers, indicating potential for significant benefits from industry demand [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance forecast for 2025 aligns with market expectations, driven by new product contributions and the growth of the AI industry and global data center construction [8] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 18.8-21.5 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-60% [8] - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the upcoming demand for 1.6T optical modules and has established a strong partnership with NVIDIA [8] - The company is also well-positioned in the commercial year of CPO (Chiplet-based Processing Unit) and is actively developing new products for this market [8] - The overseas production capacity is sufficient and gradually increasing, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit growth [8] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to RMB 20.1 billion, RMB 31.9 billion, and RMB 41.8 billion respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,252 million in 2024 to RMB 10,669 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.48% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2,015 million in 2025 to RMB 4,179 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 31.03% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.73 in 2024 to RMB 5.38 in 2027 [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.82 in 2025 to 35.11 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [9]

买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,939 | 3,252 | 5,182 | 8,108 | 10,669 | | 同比（%） | 62.04 | 67.74 | 59.35 | 56.48 | 31.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 729.88 | 1,343.52 | 2,014.97 | 3,189.18 | 4,178.85 | | 同比（%） | 81.14 | 84.07 | 49.98 | 58.27 | 31.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.94 | 1.73 | 2.59 | 4.10 | 5.38 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 201.02 | 109.21 | 72.82 | 46.01 | 35.11 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·通信设备 天孚通信（300394） 20 ...

Market Overview - On January 22, A-shares opened higher across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 9.13 points (0.22%) to 4126.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 58.51 points (0.41%) to 14313.63 points, and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 18.69 points (0.4%) to 4741.75 points [1] - The storage chip concept continued to show strength, with Yingfang Micro achieving a three-day limit-up, and Langke Technology opening over 11% higher [1] - Gold concept stocks mostly retreated, with Xiaocheng Technology down over 7% and Shengda Resources down over 6% [1] Company News - Tianfu Communication expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.881 billion to 2.150 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60%, driven by the growth in demand for high-speed optical devices due to the acceleration of the AI industry and global data center construction [2] - Demingli forecasts a net profit of 650 million to 800 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.42% to 128.21% [2] - Moore Threads anticipates 2025 revenue between 1.45 billion and 1.52 billion yuan, a growth of 230.70% to 246.67% year-on-year, but expects a net loss of 950 million to 1.06 billion yuan, narrowing the loss by 34.50% to 41.30% compared to the previous year [2] - Baiwei Storage's advanced packaging project is progressing well, with expected monthly production capacity reaching 5,000 wafers by the end of 2026 and 10,000 wafers by the end of 2027, contributing to revenue starting in late 2026 [2] Additional Company Updates - Jin'an Guoji expects a net profit of 280 million to 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 655.53% to 871.40% [3] - Tengjing Technology received a purchase order worth 12.8 million USD (approximately 89.15 million yuan) from a client, which is expected to positively impact its operating performance [3] - Dajin Heavy Industry forecasts a net profit of 1.05 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 121.58% to 153.23% [3] - Juhua Co. expects a net profit of 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80% to 101% [3] Industry Trends - Intel and AMD plan to raise server CPU prices by 10% to 15% to address supply-demand imbalances, with their server CPU capacities for 2026 nearly sold out [6] - TSMC is increasing investment in advanced packaging technology, with plans to upgrade existing facilities and expand production capacity significantly by the end of 2027 [7] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases, with Trina Solar raising its guidance prices for distributed photovoltaic modules by 0.03 yuan/W, marking the third price adjustment since the beginning of 2026 [11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that China's 6G research has completed the first phase of technical testing, with over 300 key technology reserves established [12]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The silicon photonics industry is experiencing clear trends, with accelerated development in CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology. NVIDIA's recent announcements at CES 2026 highlight advancements in supercomputing and optical devices, indicating a growing demand for CPO and related technologies [6][11][12] - The Vera Rubin cabinet features significant technological advancements, including 20 trillion transistors and enhanced memory capacities, which are expected to drive demand for CPO, optical modules, and liquid cooling solutions [6][11][12] - The CPO industry is evolving rapidly, with potential growth in demand for silicon photonics components, including optical engines and related manufacturing processes. Key sectors benefiting from this trend include optical interconnects and passive components [13][14] Group 2: Company Updates - Ji Hong Co., Ltd. (吉宏股份) - Ji Hong Co., Ltd. forecasts a 50%-60% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with expected net profit ranging from 273 to 291 million yuan. The Q4 2025 net profit is projected to be between 57 to 75 million yuan, reflecting strong performance [7][16] - The company's growth is driven by its dual strategy of packaging and cross-border social e-commerce, leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and expand market reach [17][18] Group 3: Company Updates - Beautiful Pastoral Medical Health (美丽田园医疗健康) - Beautiful Pastoral Medical Health anticipates a net profit growth of no less than 34% for 2025, with expected revenue of at least 3 billion yuan, reflecting a strong resilience and growth potential [8][20] - The company is focusing on a dual growth strategy of internal development and external acquisitions, successfully integrating brands to enhance its market position and operational capabilities [21][22] Group 4: Company Updates - Poly Developments (保利发展) - Poly Developments expects a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with net profit significantly impacted by impairment provisions. However, the company maintains a leading sales position and continues to optimize its land reserve structure [9][25][26] - The company projects a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan for 2025, down 79.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased impairment losses. Despite this, the company remains optimistic about future performance as low-cost project completions are expected to drive recovery [25][26][27]