Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is focusing on implementing the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing macroeconomic stability and financial management to support economic growth and high-quality development in the coming year [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The PBOC acknowledges the achievements made over the past year despite external pressures and internal challenges, highlighting the effectiveness of the central leadership in navigating economic development [2]. - The meeting emphasizes the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy to ensure the successful completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and to set a solid foundation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [4]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for the real economy, particularly in key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [4]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Risk Management - The PBOC is committed to preventing and mitigating financial risks, maintaining a balance between economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial stability [4]. - The central bank will strengthen its financial risk monitoring and early warning systems to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets and the stability of financial institutions [4]. Group 4: Financial Openness and International Cooperation - The PBOC is focused on advancing high-level financial openness while safeguarding national financial security, promoting international cooperation in financial governance, and enhancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [5]. Group 5: Year-End Preparations and Future Planning - The PBOC is tasked with closely monitoring financial market stability and ensuring the provision of financial services to meet public demand as the year ends [6]. - The central bank is urged to strengthen the Party's leadership over financial work and to actively plan for the upcoming year and the next five years to promote high-quality financial development [6].

会议指出，一年来，面对外部压力加大、内部困难增多的复杂严峻形势，以习近平同志为核心的党中央 团结带领全党全国各族人民，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，我国经济顶压前 行、向新向优发展，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现，为"十四五"收官划上圆满句号。这些成绩的取 得非常不易，充分体现了以习近平同志为核心的党中央运筹帷幄、果断决策以及驾驭发展大局的战略智 慧和高超能力。 会议强调，做好明年中国人民银行工作，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻党 的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真贯彻中央经济工作会议精神，按照全国金融系统工作会议工作部 署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存 量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，着力扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘 活存量，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境。重点做好以下工 作。 重磅会议。 12月12日，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜主持召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神， 落实全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实举措。中国人民银行 ...

一是坚持党中央的集中统一领导，以政治建设统领中央银行各项工作。扎实落实党中央决定的货币金融政策。认真贯彻民 主集中制，持之以恒推进全面从严治党，持续正风肃纪反腐。常态长效推进中央巡视整改。按照忠诚、干净、担当、勤勉、专 业、务实的标准，坚持正确选人用人导向，建设过硬干部人才队伍，营造风清气正的政治生态。 二是完善中央银行制度，建设强大的中央银行。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，动态评估完善货币政策框架，丰富货币政 策工具箱，加强货币政策执行和传导。统筹做好金融"五篇大文章"。健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险防范 处置机制，强化重点领域的宏观审慎管理，完善系统重要性金融机构监管的基本框架。建设规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧 性的金融市场体系。建设安全高效的金融基础设施体系。完善中央银行履职的法律基础。 本报讯 （记者刘琪）12月12日，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜主持召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精 神，落实全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实举措。中国人民银行各党委成员出席会议。 会议指出，一年来，面对外部压力加大、内部困难增多的复杂严峻形势，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, continuing a trend of liquidity support for seven consecutive months [1] Group 1: Liquidity Management - The PBOC will conduct a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender reverse repurchase operation of 600 billion yuan with a six-month term on December 15 [1] - This operation is part of a broader strategy to keep liquidity ample, aligning with the central economic work conference's directive to maintain sufficient liquidity [1] - The PBOC has effectively managed short-term fluctuations in fiscal revenue and government bond issuance through various tools, ensuring overall stability in the money market [1] Group 2: Tools and Framework - Various liquidity management tools are employed by central banks globally, categorized into four levels: intraday support, daily supply, temporary supply, and structural supply [2] - China's liquidity tool system aligns with international frameworks, with tools like automatic pledge financing and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) corresponding to daily and structural liquidity needs [2][3] - The management logic of these tools, including counterparty selection and collateral management, is consistent with international practices, focusing on high liquidity and low-risk assets [3] Group 3: Future Expectations - An additional 300 billion yuan in MLF is set to mature on December 25, with expectations for continued operations to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [3] - MLF has maintained a trend of increased operations for nine consecutive months as of November [3]

智通财经12月12日讯（编辑 赵昊）费城联储主席安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）最新表示，她预计美国 明年通胀将会降温，并警告劳动力市场仍面临进一步走弱的风险。 当地时间周五（12月12日），保尔森在特拉华州商会表示，"总体而言，我对劳动力市场疲软的担忧仍 然略大于对通胀上行风险的担忧。" "部分原因是我认为，随着我们进入2026年，通胀有相当大可能会继续下降。"她指出，关税对商品价格 的影响应会在明年年中前消退。 保尔森将劳动力市场描述为"正在承压，但尚未崩溃"，她警告说，医疗保健和社会服务等行业的表现反 映更广泛的招聘需求仍然疲弱，"劳动力市场还可以，但下行风险在上升。" 明年，保尔森将成为美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的轮值票委。鉴于她今天表达的货币政策立 场，她可能会成为"鸽派"的关键力量。 （智通财经 赵昊） 不过，在本次降息25个基点的决议中，出现了2019年以来的首次三票异议：理事米兰投反对票，主张降 息50基点；另有两人反对降息，主张维持利率不变。 这一现象凸显FOMC内部的明显分歧，官员们也在决议中微调了声明措辞，暗示对下一次何时降息存在 更大的不确定性。 保尔森表示，她仍认为 ...

Group 1: Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of November, M2 growth rate decreased to 8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 8.2%[1] - M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the prior 6.2%[1] - The negative gap between M1 and M2 widened to -3.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from -2% in the previous month[1] Group 2: Household Savings and Financial Behavior - Cumulative excess savings of households since 2020 reached approximately 2.11 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 428.5 billion yuan from 2.54 trillion yuan in October[2] - The release of excess savings indicates that the trend of "household savings migration" is ongoing, with a primary focus on financial asset allocation rather than physical consumption[2] Group 3: Credit and Loan Dynamics - In November, new RMB loans increased by 390 billion yuan, which is 190 billion yuan less than the previous year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4%[3] - Household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, a reduction of 4.76 billion yuan year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans declining[3] - Corporate loans increased by 610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing preferences[4] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Expectations - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery in 2026, with anticipated actions including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction[16][17] - The overall financing structure is characterized by a shift towards short-term and bill financing, reflecting ongoing recovery challenges in the real economy[6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale reached 440.07 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy environment conducive to high-quality economic development [1] Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - As of November 2025, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 336.99 trillion yuan, with an 8% year-on-year increase, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The social financing scale and M2 growth rates are approximately double that of nominal GDP growth, highlighting the supportive financial environment for economic development [1] Group 2: Loan Growth Trends - In the first eleven months of the year, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of 390 billion yuan in November, while the loan balance reached 271 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year growth, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The decline in loan growth is attributed to multiple factors, including the substitution effect of diversified financing methods and the impact of local government debt and reforms in small banks [2][4] Group 3: Structural Changes in Loan Demand - The issuance of special refinancing bonds by local governments, amounting to 4 trillion yuan, has significantly impacted loan growth, with 60-70% used for repaying bank loans, contributing to a decline of over 1 percentage point in loan growth [4] - The transition from traditional investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth has reduced reliance on bank loans, as new economic growth points are less dependent on credit [5] Group 4: Monetary Policy Framework - Experts suggest that a comprehensive approach to monetary policy should be adopted, focusing on optimizing the liquidity supply mechanism and maintaining reasonable financial growth [9] - Recent innovations in liquidity management tools, such as including government bond trading in monetary policy tools, are expected to enhance liquidity management effectiveness [9][10]

保尔森表示，她仍然认为货币政策处于一定程度上偏紧的状态，不过近期的宽松将为就业市场提供一定 缓冲。 保尔森说："通过在过去三次会议上合计降息75个基点，我们已经在一定程度上为防止劳动力市场进一 步恶化买了一份保险。" 保尔森表示，在评估关税和人工智能等最新发展将如何影响经济时，美联储的信誉非常重要。如果经济 因为由人工智能推动的生产率繁荣而实现高增长，那么所需的政策应对将不同于高通胀同时成为风险的 情形。 她说："劳动力市场目前状况尚可，但下行风险在上升。" 美联储官员本周连续第三次降息，并维持其在2026年仅再降息一次的前景。保尔森并非本次会议的有投 票权委员，但她将在2026年参与投票。 本次的利率决定是自2019年以来首次出现三票异议，而且来自两个方向，突显出委员会内部存在严重分 歧。决策者还在声明措辞上作了细微调整，暗示对何时可能再次降息的不确定性有所增加。 来源：环球市场播报 费城联邦储备银行行长安娜・保尔森周五表示，她预计明年通胀将会降温，但同时提醒劳动力市场可能 进一步走弱的风险。 保尔森在特拉华州商会的活动上表示："总体而言，相比通胀上行风险，我仍然对劳动力市场疲弱更为 担忧。这部分是因为我认 ...

来源：@华夏时报微博 华夏时报记者 刘佳 北京报道 2026年货币政策权威方向，由中央经济工作会议正式定调。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作，为全年宏观调 控划定核心方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大 逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物 价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策 传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水 平上的基本稳定。 在多位受访人士看来，此次会议为2026年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，明确传递出宏观政策将 更加积极有力，以推动宏观经济实现"质的有效提升和量的合理增长"。 值得关注的是，关于总量型货币政策工具，会议将去年的"适时降准降息"调整为"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具"，这一表述变化意味着降准降息仍是明年货币政策操作的可选项，同时强调灵活性与实效性，既 ...

"在数据'静默'之前，有一些令人担忧的读数，"古尔斯比说。"幸运的是，我们在接下来的几个月里将会 发现关于这些风险的重要信息，希望这能让我们有信心重返2%的通胀路径。" 周五发表讲话的还有费城联储主席保尔森，其立场较为鸽派，称"相对于通胀上行风险，她仍然更担心 劳动力市场的疲软"。"这部分是因为我认为，随着明年的推进，通胀有相当大的机会回落，"她在特拉 华州的一次活动上表示。"劳动力市场尚可，但下行风险正在升高。" 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他之所以在本周投下反对票，是因为他希望等待更多经济数据，以确定 关税对通胀的影响是否只是暂时的。 古尔斯比在周五的一份声明中表示，"鉴于通胀率已经连续四年半高于我们的目标，而且几个月来在通 胀问题上的进展一直停滞不前，加上我们最近在辖区内接触的几乎所有商界人士和消费者都将物价列为 主要担忧，我觉得更审慎的做法是等待更多信息。" 这位芝加哥联储主席本周投下的反对票是他自2023年加入美联储以来的首次异议，这使他与堪萨斯城联 储主席施密德站在了同一战线，后者曾在10月份的前一次降息中投了反对票，并对本周的决定再次提出 异议。 施密德也在周五的另一份声明中也概述了他连续第二次 ...