Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting it stems from "personal animosity" but stated he would not seek to remove Powell before his term ends in 2026 [1] - Trump downplayed concerns about a potential economic recession, indicating that the U.S. is in a transitional phase and he is not worried about economic contraction during his term, although he does not rule out the possibility [1] - Recent criticisms from Trump reflect a strong desire from the government for interest rate cuts, while Powell emphasized the need to ensure tariffs do not lead to sustained inflation before considering rate reductions [1] Group 2 - Michael Gibson, the director of the Federal Reserve's regulatory department, is set to leave by the end of the year after over thirty years at the Fed, overseeing the supervision of Wall Street lending institutions and implementing "stress tests" [2] - The nomination of Michelle Bowman as the new vice chair for supervision is pending Senate confirmation, and her approach to bank regulation is expected to be more lenient than Gibson's, potentially ushering in a period of relaxed oversight for Wall Street [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting it stems from "personal animosity" [1] - Trump downplays concerns about a potential economic recession, stating that the U.S. is in a transitional phase and he is not worried about economic contraction during his term, although he does not rule out the possibility [1] - Recent public criticism from Trump reflects the government's strong desire for interest rate cuts, while Powell emphasizes the need to ensure tariffs do not lead to sustained inflation before considering rate reductions [1] Group 2 - Michael Gibson, the director of the Federal Reserve's regulatory department, is set to leave by the end of the year after over thirty years of service, which may signal a shift in regulatory approach [2] - Gibson's departure coincides with the Senate confirmation process for Michelle Bowman, a nominee for the vice chair of supervision, who is expected to adopt a more lenient stance on bank regulation, potentially ushering in a period of relaxed oversight for Wall Street [2]

兄弟姐妹们啊，简单关注一则特朗普跟美联储主席的消息。 特朗普首次给出明确表态 不会提前解雇鲍威尔 美国总统特朗普坚称，尽管他持续批评降息速度过慢，但他并不打算解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 他在周日播出的NBC节目《会见新闻界》中接受采访时说道："我为什么要那样做？我很快就可以换人 了。" 特朗普还为自己的关税政策进行了辩护，坚称企业已经开始将生产设施转移到美国。他补充说，他不排 除将这些关税永久化的可能性。 在采访中，总统再次被问及是否考虑竞选第三任总统，尽管宪法禁止总统连任三届。今年3月30日他曾 告诉NBC："很多人希望我这么做"，但当时表示做决定还为时尚早。而在本周日的采访中，他似乎否定 了这一可能。 特朗普称："他（鲍威尔）应该降息。迟早他会降的。他宁愿不这么做，因为他不是我的粉丝。你知 道，他就是不喜欢我，因为我觉得他是个完全呆板的人。" 当被问及是否会在鲍威尔2026年任期结束前将其免职时，特朗普作出了最明确的否认："不，不，不。 那完全是……我为什么要那样做？我很快就能换人了。" 上个月，在特朗普加大对鲍威尔的攻击力度之后，华尔街股市大幅下跌，引发市场对美联储独立性的担 忧。此后，特朗普在言辞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on a labor dispute involving the dismissal of two labor committee members by President Trump poses a significant threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve and could undermine the foundational principles of American governance [2][4][6]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The case challenges the precedent set by the Humphrey's Executor v. United States ruling, which states that the President cannot dismiss independent agency officials for political reasons [2][4]. - The Supreme Court's conservative justices have allowed Trump to suspend the two labor committee members, indicating a potential shift in judicial interpretation that could affect the independence of various regulatory bodies [4][6]. - The ruling could set a precedent that undermines the dual protections of the Federal Reserve's independence, which is currently safeguarded by statutory term limits and judicial precedent [4][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Wall Street is reacting to the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence, with Goldman Sachs warning that gold prices could soar above $4,500 if this independence collapses [4]. - The U.S. dollar has already fallen back to levels seen in early 2024, reflecting a broader loss of trust in the financial system [4][6]. Group 3: Historical Context - The situation draws parallels to the 1970s when President Nixon pressured the Federal Reserve, leading to stagflation with inflation rates reaching 14% and unemployment exceeding 10% [4][6]. - The current political maneuvering raises concerns about the future of independent regulatory agencies in the U.S., as the outcome of this case could impact over 50 independent bodies, including the SEC and FCC [6][8]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The ruling could signify a shift towards a more centralized executive power, challenging the foundational principle of checks and balances in the U.S. government [6][8]. - The potential for presidential control over interest rates could transform monetary policy from an economic tool into a means of political power [8].

特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）近日将降本增效的矛头指向美联储，对其耗资25亿美元的总部翻 新计划提出质疑，并建议该项目应成为"政府效能部（DOGE）"的重点审查对象。 "我们确实应该查查美联储是否把25亿美元花在室内设计师身上，"马斯克周三对记者调侃道，"这数字 让人瞠目结舌。" 此番言论预示着一场关于美联储独立性的政治角力即将展开。此前，前总统特朗普已多次威胁要解雇美 联储主席鲍威尔。 美联储对华盛顿特区的整体改造计划涵盖马瑞纳·S·埃克尔斯大楼（Marriner S. Eccles Building）及毗邻 的FRB东楼（FRB East Building），旨在更新基础设施、通过集中办公降低租赁成本并提升运营效率。 这项最初预算19亿美元的项目已膨胀至25亿美元，引发保守派批评，认为配备屋顶花园与玻璃中庭的奢 华改造与民众经济现状脱节。 批评者还指出，这个长期为联邦财政贡献净收入的机构近年因应对大衰退、新冠疫情的经济刺激措施及 后续激进加息，已陷入亏损状态。美联储拒绝对此置评。 项目支持者则强调建筑成本上涨、历史建筑保护法规及楼龄过高是预算超支主因。埃克尔斯大楼建于 1937年，FRB东 ...

美国财政部长贝森特。路透社 贝森特1日还称，随着时间推移以及贸易协议的达成，关税不确定性的"缝隙"将会缩小。他表示，尽管4月股市一度遭遇抛售，但当月的最终表现基本持平。 据彭博社、路透社5月1日报道，美国财政部长贝森特当天在接受采访时表示，美国国债市场正在发出美联储应该降息的信号。 当天，贝森特向福克斯商业频道表示，"我们看到两年期利率现在低于联邦基金利率。因此，这是一个市场信号，表明美联储应该降息。" 截至当天美东时间上午7时58分，两年期美国国债收益率为3.58%，而基准联邦基金利率为4.33%。美联储目前将联邦基金利率目标区间设定在4.25%至4.50% 之间。 美联储方面表示，目前尚无降息计划，理由是考虑到通胀率仍高于2%的目标，以及特朗普政府关税政策推高物价的风险。 美联储将于5月7日召开下次利率决策会议，几乎所有经济学家都预测美联储将维持利率不变。此前，特朗普已多次敦促美联储降息。 "市场在4月完成了令人难以置信的往返之旅，"贝森特说，"我们到达目的地时，这条路将是值得的，短期而言，我认为每个人都应该深吸一口气。" 在2024年的三次降息后，由于通胀风险变高，美联储今年迄今一直维持利率不变。特朗普 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is hovering around $3,310 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.15% reported at $3,312.35 per ounce [1] - The easing of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and its partner countries, is diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that several major trade partners have proposed "very good" suggestions to avoid tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1] Group 2 - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that the market perceives a reduction in trade tensions and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to decreased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The expectation remains that gold prices may retest the $3,500 per ounce mark later this year, as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates [1] - Proposed strategies include reducing tariffs on foreign-made auto parts used in U.S. manufacturing, which could alleviate pressure on the U.S. automotive industry [2]

Group 1: Monetary Policy - President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, arguing that current rates are too high given the declining inflation data [3] - The market perceives Trump's frequent interventions in interest rate policy as a potential threat to the independence of the central bank, with a 0.25 percentage point implicit risk premium observed in the pricing of the federal funds rate by traders [3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - Trump promoted his tax reform 2.0, which includes expanding the income tax exemption for tips, adjusting the Social Security tax threshold, and optimizing overtime tax treatment, claiming it would reduce taxes for auto industry workers by an average of $1,450 annually [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the full implementation of this proposal would reduce federal revenue by approximately $215 billion over the next decade, with 38% of the tax cuts benefiting the manufacturing sector [3] Group 3: Trade Policy - Trump defended his tariff policy, stating that a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts has led to a net increase of 42,000 jobs in the U.S. auto manufacturing sector, with Michigan accounting for 29% of this growth [4] - However, Bloomberg's economic research indicated that the average price of imported cars and parts rose by 17.3% during the same period, with consumers bearing about 62% of the tariff costs [4] Group 4: Market Reaction - During Trump's speech, the volatility of the dollar index rose to 112.5 basis points, the highest in nearly three months, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 4.38% before retreating, indicating investor caution regarding policy uncertainty [5] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index showed an increase in the five-year inflation expectations to 3.1%, the highest level since June 2023 [5]

这些案件被视为潜在的代理案件，用以判断特朗普是否有权解雇美联储官员，特别是他在最近对鲍威尔 的批评震动金融市场并引发了关于美联储能否不受政治干预地推行货币政策的质疑之后。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内获得提名后，于2018年开始其美联储主席的四年任期，并由拜登再次任 命其担任该职至2026年5月。他在美联储理事会的14年任期预计将持续到2028年1月。 美联储理事会成员与劳工委员会成员一样，拥有免职保护，只允许总统仅因效率低下或渎职等原因解雇 他们，而非政策分歧。 法律专家表示，如果最高法院决定取消对这两个劳工委员会成员的免职保护，它可能会试图创造一个例 外，以保护像鲍威尔这样的美联储官员，旨在维护美联储的独立性。 当美国最高法院就特朗普总统罢免两名联邦劳工委员会成员的努力做出裁决时，市场正在密切关注这一 问题：美联储主席鲍威尔的命运可能会决定于该裁决。 关于特朗普解雇两名民主党劳工委员会成员Harris和Wilcox的法庭斗争，尽管这些职位受到法律保护， 但它已成为检验特朗普能否直接控制独立联邦机构的关键考验。 这场争议焦点在于，国会通过的旨在防止这些职位官员无故被解雇的保障措施是否侵犯了美国宪法规定 的总 ...

文|六月 编辑|六月 前言 自2018年中美贸易战爆发以来，美国通过加征关税施压中国，试图迫使其让步，但特朗普的强硬政策未能扭转美国经济，反而加重了全球经济负 担，遭遇国内企业和民众的广泛反对。 特朗普施压降息，鲍威尔坚守美联储独立性，未屈从政治压力。其竟采取与中国同一阵线的立场，此事令特朗普惊愕不已。 中国面对美国压力，采取冷静务实的策略，强调平等对话和多边合作，力求在全球经济中最大化自身利益。 美联储在美国经济中的角色至关重要，它不仅关系到货币政策的制定，也直接影响到美国乃至全球的金融市场。 2017年，特朗普提名鲍威尔为美联储主席时，许多人对两人之间的合作充满期待。 鲍威尔的智慧能否帮助美国摆脱困境？中国又将如何应对未来的挑战？ 特朗普与鲍威尔 在美国，经济决策的权力从来不是集中在一个人手中的，尤其是美联储与政府之间，始终保持着一定程度的独立性。 毕竟，特朗普对经济的执着与鲍威尔的货币政策背景似乎有着某种契合。 特朗普希望通过降息来刺激美国经济，尤其是在面对贸易战带来的经济压力时，他更希望美联储能够加大宽松政策。 而鲍威尔则坚信美联储必须保持独立性，避免与政治挂钩，采取"稳中求进"的策略。 特朗普并没有 ...