2月23日，美指中线低位宽幅震荡，上周收阳柱。从图形来看，仍然在区间内震荡，本周建议关注 98.10-96.80区间震荡行情，若能上破再留意震荡向上格局。至于中线是宽幅震荡后向下破位创新低，还 是震荡后向上破位迎来中线的反弹行情，反弹是指向上测试102.80和103.20区域，个人建议两手准备。 从周线极别框架来看，美指中线向上反弹的概率更大些，但这么久都没上去，所以两手准备比较理性 些；长线还是看空美指，现在问题就是中线反不反弹。本周短线建议先按区间震荡格局先操作，然后再 走一步看一步。今日操作建议：97.50-97.60区域做空美指，止损97.90，目标看向97.10和96.80．控制仓 量，严格止损。 欧元最高测试1.2080后向下回调，上周图收阴柱。从图形来看，欧元仍在日线震荡向上通道内运行，后 市继续关注区间内震荡行情，若跌破通道大概率将迎来深度回调行情，下方可关注1.1030和1.0870区 域；若一直在上方震荡，也有可能震荡后直接向上破位拉涨创新高去1.2300甚至1.2750，这是长线欧元 看涨目标，现在问题就是中线要不要深度回踩的问题了，所以建议中线两手准备。短线本周建议按区间 震荡格局操作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping over 2%, influenced by a broader decline in precious metals and a rebound in the US dollar, indicating a decrease in risk appetite [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum contract has seen a decline of more than 2%, while aluminum alloy prices have also followed suit with a nearly 2% drop [1] - Precious metals have experienced significant declines, contributing to the overall negative sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, the characteristics of a demand off-season are becoming increasingly evident, leading to a continuous accumulation of social inventories [1] - The short-term performance of the aluminum market appears weak due to these fundamental factors [1]

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index is expected to rise after a pullback to 98.70, with a target of 102.40 [1][9] - Key resistance levels to watch are 99.70/99.80; failure to break above these levels may lead to downward pressure [1][9] - The suggested trading strategy is to maintain a bullish stance within the 98.70-99.70 range until a breakout occurs [1][9] Group 2: Euro - The bearish outlook for the Euro remains intact below 1.1700, with a target of 1.1580 achieved last week [3][11] - Key support to monitor is at 1.1540; a break below this level could increase the likelihood of a decline towards 1.1320 [3][11] - Traders are advised to look for short opportunities in the 1.1650-1.1660 range, with strict stop-loss measures [3][11] Group 3: Gold - Gold has shown a clear upward trend, reaching the target of 4688, with a focus on the support level at 4624 [5][13] - The bullish outlook continues, with resistance levels at 4721 and 4755 to be monitored [5][13] - Aggressive traders are recommended to enter long positions around 4645, with a stop-loss at 4620 [5][13] Group 4: Silver - Silver has also risen as expected, reaching the target of 89.45, while maintaining a bullish trend [7][15] - Key support to watch is at 86.10; a drop below this level may indicate a return to a consolidation phase [7][15] - Traders are encouraged to consider long positions around 91.50, with a stop-loss at 86.00 [7][15]

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index stabilized above 97.50 last week and closed with a bullish weekly candle, indicating a medium-term bullish outlook [1][9] - This week, the focus is on the support level at 98.10, with expectations to remain bullish above this level [1][9] - Suggested trading strategy includes going long in the 98.40/50 area with a stop loss at 98.10 and targets set at 99.70, 100.50, and 102.40 [1][9] Group 2: Euro - The Euro reversed downward as expected, maintaining a bearish outlook below 1.1820, with a target of 1.1320 [2][11] - The reversal pattern was confirmed last week, and the strategy remains to short the Euro, focusing on the strong resistance at 1.1750 [2][11] - Recommended trading action is to short near 1.1710 with a stop loss at 1.1760 and targets at 1.1630, 1.1580, and further down to 1.1420 and 1.1320 [2][11] Group 3: Gold - Gold reached a peak last week but did not create a new high, instead experiencing a significant pullback [4][13] - A recent top has formed, with only a 5% probability of making new highs in the short term, suggesting a high-level consolidation or downward trend [4][13] - Key resistance is at 4497, while support levels are at 4275 and 4130; no specific trading recommendations are provided, only a framework for analysis [4][13] Group 4: Silver - Silver halted its upward trend and experienced a notable pullback, closing with a bearish weekly candle [6][15] - The short-term outlook indicates a peak has been reached, with recommendations to operate within a high-level consolidation or downward trend, though the downside potential is limited [6][15] - Current trading strategy suggests a short-term bullish view, with resistance levels at 77.20 to 78.70 and 80.70, while support levels are at 70.60 and 66.60 [6][15]

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index broke below the strong support level of 99.00 last week, closing on a bearish note, indicating a continued focus on the previous week's blue line trend this week [1][9] - The medium-term outlook for the US Dollar Index remains bullish, with potential upward movement expected to reach levels of 101.70 and 102.40 if it surpasses the resistance at 99.40 [1][9] - Short-term trading is expected to remain bearish below 99.10, with key support at 98.00 to be monitored for potential reversal [1][9] Group 2: Euro - The Euro continued its upward movement last week, with a focus on the strong resistance level at 1.1730 this week, while maintaining a medium-term bearish outlook [2][11] - Caution is advised for long positions, with a preference for short positions if the price drops below 1.1580, indicating a return to a downtrend [2][11] - The trading range between 1.1580 and 1.1730 is considered less favorable for short-term operations, suggesting a flexible approach [2][11] Group 3: Gold - Gold reached a high of approximately 4264 before retreating, remaining in a high-level consolidation phase [4][13] - The strategy for this week involves shorting gold below 4275, with a medium-term bearish outlook targeting levels down to 3820 [4][13] - Specific trading recommendations include shorting around 4240 with a stop loss at 4272, aiming for targets at 4129, 4030, 3974, and 3820 [4][13] Group 4: Silver - Silver reached new highs last week but is currently experiencing high-level consolidation, with a bullish trend still apparent [6][15] - Although the current wave may be nearing completion, there are no significant bearish signals, suggesting a focus on observation this week [6][15] - For potential trading, short-term flexibility is recommended, with key support at 57.50 and resistance levels at 59.60 and 60.05 [6][16]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to continue its upward trend, reaching a target of 102.40, with a current level above 99.00 [1] - The Euro is in a downtrend, with a target near 1.1310, and key resistance levels at 1.1580 and 1.1600 [3] - Gold is anticipated to experience high-level fluctuations, with a recommendation to buy in the 3980-3960 range, targeting 4060 and 4088 [5] Group 2 - Silver is also expected to rebound, with a focus on buying around 48.20, targeting 49.70 and 50.50 [7][8]

Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - The current market sentiment shows a rise in risk appetite, negatively impacting the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold [1] Gold Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, following significant sell-off pressure from the previous day, with the market closely monitoring this trend [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a mild bull flattening, with yields slightly retreating, injecting cautious optimism into the fixed income sector [1] - The U.S. dollar has shown slight resilience amidst improving risk sentiment, while gold's sharp decline highlights the vulnerability of safe-haven assets under current market signals [1] - The economic calendar is sparse due to government shutdown concerns, with only minor Treasury auctions and repurchase operations supporting liquidity [1] Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold are around the 4000 mark, which is near the 20-day moving average on the daily chart and the 5-week moving average on the weekly chart [3] - A drop below 4000 could trigger a mid-term adjustment trend, while holding above this level may indicate continued bullish sentiment [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with resistance levels at 4160-4180 and support at 4120-4100 [3] Oil Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - WTI crude oil prices are fluctuating around $57.55, with market focus shifting towards easing trade concerns and improving inventory changes [4] - Recent signals from the U.S. government indicate a reduction in trade tensions, which has positively influenced market sentiment towards oil [4] - The oil market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern unless new developments in trade concerns arise [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have broken below the lower boundary of a trading range, suggesting a downward trend [5] - The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, indicating that the mid-term outlook for oil is likely to be a downward trend [5] - Short-term trading strategy recommends focusing on long positions during pullbacks, with resistance at 61.5-62.5 and support at 58.5-57.5 [5]

Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut has led to uncertainty, as Powell emphasized that future cuts will depend on upcoming meetings [2] - The current pullback in gold prices is seen as normal profit-taking, and the overall trend remains unchanged [2] - Despite an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, key economic data such as core PCE and non-farm payrolls are still pending, leading to a temporary market adjustment [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend in the short term, with support at $3615 and resistance at $3665 [2] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are influencing oil prices, with Trump urging countries to stop purchasing Russian oil to lower prices and end the Ukraine conflict [4] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production, but the increase is below expectations, which, along with ongoing geopolitical issues, is providing some support for oil prices [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a low volatility range, with prices consolidating between $61.50 and $64.80 [5] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with support at $62.40 and resistance at $64.10 [5] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index has reached a new historical high, with strong upward momentum indicated by MACD, although caution is advised due to potential market pullbacks [7] - Support is noted at 24300 and resistance at 24550 [7] US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index has formed a bullish reversal signal, with a short-term upward trend and a recent breakthrough of the 120-day moving average [8] - Support is at 97.10 and resistance at 97.80 [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, matching July's figure and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, leading to a short-term drop in spot gold prices below $3,690 before recovering and briefly surpassing $3,700 [2] - Geopolitical tensions are rising as Russia warns NATO against shooting down its drones over Ukraine, which could escalate into a state of war [2] - Analysts believe gold remains resilient against short-term negative data, maintaining a high position while awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend with support at $3,680 and resistance at $3,720 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.42 million barrels for the week ending September 12, compared to an increase of 1.25 million barrels previously, indicating strong recent consumption [4] - The geopolitical situation is tense, with reports of Russian military actions against Ukrainian forces, which may support rising oil prices [4][5] - The combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost domestic investment and increase oil consumption [5] - Technical analysis shows oil prices consolidating in the $61.50 to $65.50 range, with support at $64.10 and resistance at $65.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index experienced a decline, with a bearish daily close, while the hourly trend shows a slowdown in upward momentum [7] - The U.S. Dollar Index fell below the 97 mark, maintaining a downward trend, with support at 96.30 and potential further declines following the interest rate decision [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]