黄金上周正如预期，上涨波段到位，没有再创新高，反而大幅回调。从图形来看，近期顶部出现，短期 内创新高的概率只有5%，建议近期后市按高位震荡或震荡下行格局操作，当然长线还是看涨黄金的， 只是近期需要调整，下跌空间目前来看有限。上方重点关注4497强阻力，激进者可逢高做空，下方重点 关注4275和4130强支撑。若周初一直4431强阻力没破，再考虑蓝线行情做为备选。今日没有具体操作建 议，只有框架分析，仅供大家参考吧。 白银上周停止上涨向下回调，波幅较大，周图收阴柱。从图形来看，白银短期见顶，近期后市建议按高 位震荡或震荡下行操作，但下行空间有限，不能看的太远。本周目前还在单边趋势线上方运行，呈高位 区间震荡格局，今日短线看涨，关注上方77.20至78.70区域强阻力，再上方80.70强阻力也值得关注，日 内看涨，但周内看震荡，所以涨不动时，可在强阻力给出向下信号后做空。目前不确定能冲到哪里，走 一步看一步吧，在这个框架下灵活处理吧，下方强支撑关注70.60和66.60． 1月5日，美指上周正如预期在97.50上方企稳上行，周图收阳柱。从图形来看，美指中线仍然看涨，本 周关注下方98.10，以上继续看涨，日内关注 ...

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index broke below the strong support level of 99.00 last week, closing on a bearish note, indicating a continued focus on the previous week's blue line trend this week [1][9] - The medium-term outlook for the US Dollar Index remains bullish, with potential upward movement expected to reach levels of 101.70 and 102.40 if it surpasses the resistance at 99.40 [1][9] - Short-term trading is expected to remain bearish below 99.10, with key support at 98.00 to be monitored for potential reversal [1][9] Group 2: Euro - The Euro continued its upward movement last week, with a focus on the strong resistance level at 1.1730 this week, while maintaining a medium-term bearish outlook [2][11] - Caution is advised for long positions, with a preference for short positions if the price drops below 1.1580, indicating a return to a downtrend [2][11] - The trading range between 1.1580 and 1.1730 is considered less favorable for short-term operations, suggesting a flexible approach [2][11] Group 3: Gold - Gold reached a high of approximately 4264 before retreating, remaining in a high-level consolidation phase [4][13] - The strategy for this week involves shorting gold below 4275, with a medium-term bearish outlook targeting levels down to 3820 [4][13] - Specific trading recommendations include shorting around 4240 with a stop loss at 4272, aiming for targets at 4129, 4030, 3974, and 3820 [4][13] Group 4: Silver - Silver reached new highs last week but is currently experiencing high-level consolidation, with a bullish trend still apparent [6][15] - Although the current wave may be nearing completion, there are no significant bearish signals, suggesting a focus on observation this week [6][15] - For potential trading, short-term flexibility is recommended, with key support at 57.50 and resistance levels at 59.60 and 60.05 [6][16]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to continue its upward trend, reaching a target of 102.40, with a current level above 99.00 [1] - The Euro is in a downtrend, with a target near 1.1310, and key resistance levels at 1.1580 and 1.1600 [3] - Gold is anticipated to experience high-level fluctuations, with a recommendation to buy in the 3980-3960 range, targeting 4060 and 4088 [5] Group 2 - Silver is also expected to rebound, with a focus on buying around 48.20, targeting 49.70 and 50.50 [7][8]

Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - The current market sentiment shows a rise in risk appetite, negatively impacting the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold [1] Gold Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, following significant sell-off pressure from the previous day, with the market closely monitoring this trend [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a mild bull flattening, with yields slightly retreating, injecting cautious optimism into the fixed income sector [1] - The U.S. dollar has shown slight resilience amidst improving risk sentiment, while gold's sharp decline highlights the vulnerability of safe-haven assets under current market signals [1] - The economic calendar is sparse due to government shutdown concerns, with only minor Treasury auctions and repurchase operations supporting liquidity [1] Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold are around the 4000 mark, which is near the 20-day moving average on the daily chart and the 5-week moving average on the weekly chart [3] - A drop below 4000 could trigger a mid-term adjustment trend, while holding above this level may indicate continued bullish sentiment [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with resistance levels at 4160-4180 and support at 4120-4100 [3] Oil Market Analysis Fundamental Analysis - WTI crude oil prices are fluctuating around $57.55, with market focus shifting towards easing trade concerns and improving inventory changes [4] - Recent signals from the U.S. government indicate a reduction in trade tensions, which has positively influenced market sentiment towards oil [4] - The oil market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern unless new developments in trade concerns arise [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have broken below the lower boundary of a trading range, suggesting a downward trend [5] - The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, indicating that the mid-term outlook for oil is likely to be a downward trend [5] - Short-term trading strategy recommends focusing on long positions during pullbacks, with resistance at 61.5-62.5 and support at 58.5-57.5 [5]

Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut has led to uncertainty, as Powell emphasized that future cuts will depend on upcoming meetings [2] - The current pullback in gold prices is seen as normal profit-taking, and the overall trend remains unchanged [2] - Despite an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, key economic data such as core PCE and non-farm payrolls are still pending, leading to a temporary market adjustment [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend in the short term, with support at $3615 and resistance at $3665 [2] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are influencing oil prices, with Trump urging countries to stop purchasing Russian oil to lower prices and end the Ukraine conflict [4] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production, but the increase is below expectations, which, along with ongoing geopolitical issues, is providing some support for oil prices [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a low volatility range, with prices consolidating between $61.50 and $64.80 [5] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with support at $62.40 and resistance at $64.10 [5] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index has reached a new historical high, with strong upward momentum indicated by MACD, although caution is advised due to potential market pullbacks [7] - Support is noted at 24300 and resistance at 24550 [7] US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index has formed a bullish reversal signal, with a short-term upward trend and a recent breakthrough of the 120-day moving average [8] - Support is at 97.10 and resistance at 97.80 [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, matching July's figure and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, leading to a short-term drop in spot gold prices below $3,690 before recovering and briefly surpassing $3,700 [2] - Geopolitical tensions are rising as Russia warns NATO against shooting down its drones over Ukraine, which could escalate into a state of war [2] - Analysts believe gold remains resilient against short-term negative data, maintaining a high position while awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend with support at $3,680 and resistance at $3,720 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.42 million barrels for the week ending September 12, compared to an increase of 1.25 million barrels previously, indicating strong recent consumption [4] - The geopolitical situation is tense, with reports of Russian military actions against Ukrainian forces, which may support rising oil prices [4][5] - The combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost domestic investment and increase oil consumption [5] - Technical analysis shows oil prices consolidating in the $61.50 to $65.50 range, with support at $64.10 and resistance at $65.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index experienced a decline, with a bearish daily close, while the hourly trend shows a slowdown in upward momentum [7] - The U.S. Dollar Index fell below the 97 mark, maintaining a downward trend, with support at 96.30 and potential further declines following the interest rate decision [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that most officials emphasized inflation risks over labor market concerns, leading to a split in opinions regarding tariff policies [2] - Following the release of the minutes, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 92% to 81%, with market focus shifting to Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish signal with prices breaking above the 60/120-day moving averages, with support at $3335 and resistance at $3358 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 601.4 thousand barrels, contrasting with expectations of a decline of 175.9 thousand barrels [4] - The IEA forecasts that global oil production will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025, reaching 105.5 million barrels, and will further rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] - Despite the significant drop in inventories, oil prices remain weak due to an oversupply situation, with prices fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index showed a bearish trend with a strong rebound near the support level of 22970, focusing on potential reversal signals in the 23100-23300 range [7] - The Dollar Index experienced a spinning top candlestick pattern, with a brief rise into the 98.30-98.65 range before a slight pullback, indicating a focus on testing the 98.50 level [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. House of Representatives has filed criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleging he committed perjury during testimony regarding the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve, which increased from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2] - The European Union has approved tariffs on U.S. goods worth €21 billion in response to Trump's tariff policies, contributing to market concerns and driving up gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend in gold prices, with support at $3,380 and resistance at $3,450 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC has maintained its oil demand forecast while increasing production expectations, with Saudi Arabia supplying approximately 400,000 barrels per day to the market in June [4] - Geopolitical tensions remain high, with Ukraine's President Zelensky proposing new talks with Russia, but significant military actions continue, indicating that short-term geopolitical risks may not impact oil prices [5] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend in oil prices, fluctuating between $64 and $70, with a critical support level at $65.10 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index reached a new historical high, with a bullish trend supported by the 60-day and 120-day moving averages [7] - The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant decline, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average, with a focus on potential price retracement around 98.10 [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve is entering a quiet period, with current board member Waller reaffirming support for a 25 basis point rate cut in July, and recent data showing improved consumer inflation expectations [2] - Trade tensions between the US and EU continue, with Trump advocating for a minimum tariff of around 20% on all EU goods, planning to announce tariffs on specific industries by August 1 [2] - Analyst Mai Dong believes that factors supporting gold prices are gradually accumulating, with the market expecting the July rate decision to remain unchanged, but uncertainties remain regarding Powell's ability to maintain Fed independence under pressure [2] - On the technical side, the market formed a short-term upward trend after breaking a short-term descending channel, with a key resistance level at $3335 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - On July 19, the UK announced sanctions against Russian intelligence agencies, lowering the price cap on Russian oil exports from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, which is expected to severely impact Russia's oil industry and funding sources [4] - This action may provoke dissatisfaction among other oil-producing countries, potentially leading to increased production to compete for market share, which could negatively affect oil prices [5] - Saudi Arabia recently modified its oil production reporting standards, with the latest OPEC report indicating a market supply of 9.36 million barrels per day, while actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day [4] - The oil market opened down approximately $1.2 in response to these developments, with a focus on the support level at $65.10 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and US Dollar - The Nasdaq index closed with a small decline, maintaining a high price level, with attention on whether it can reach new highs this week [6] - The US dollar index also closed with a small gain, trading within a range of 97.80 to 98.92, with a focus on the support level at 98.10 [7]