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百利好早盘分析:防范式的降息 金价高位回落
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 01:41
Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut has led to uncertainty, as Powell emphasized that future cuts will depend on upcoming meetings [2] - The current pullback in gold prices is seen as normal profit-taking, and the overall trend remains unchanged [2] - Despite an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, key economic data such as core PCE and non-farm payrolls are still pending, leading to a temporary market adjustment [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend in the short term, with support at $3615 and resistance at $3665 [2] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are influencing oil prices, with Trump urging countries to stop purchasing Russian oil to lower prices and end the Ukraine conflict [4] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production, but the increase is below expectations, which, along with ongoing geopolitical issues, is providing some support for oil prices [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a low volatility range, with prices consolidating between $61.50 and $64.80 [5] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with support at $62.40 and resistance at $64.10 [5] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index has reached a new historical high, with strong upward momentum indicated by MACD, although caution is advised due to potential market pullbacks [7] - Support is noted at 24300 and resistance at 24550 [7] US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index has formed a bullish reversal signal, with a short-term upward trend and a recent breakthrough of the 120-day moving average [8] - Support is at 97.10 and resistance at 97.80 [8]
百利好早盘分析:不惧数据利空 金价等待会议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 02:09
黄金方面: 今日早间(9月17日),美国石油协会公布了美国至9月12日当周API原油库存,公布值减少342万桶,相较于前值增加125万桶,库存大幅减少,表明近期消 费较好。 地缘政治方面,周二,俄罗斯国防部发布战报称,在过去一天,俄军多个集团军在苏梅、哈尔科夫、顿涅茨克、扎波罗热等方向打击乌军。 俄军摧毁了西方提供给乌克兰的武器装备后勤配送中心和远程无人机储存和发射点。 乌克兰方面称,16日凌晨再次对俄罗斯萨拉托夫州炼油厂实施精确打击。 综合来看,俄乌局势的再次趋于紧张,助力了油价,叠加美联储即将降息,拉动了美国国内工商业的投资,进而带动原油消费的攀升。 周二(9月16日),美国商务部公布的数据显示,8月份美国零售销售月率为0.6%,与7月份的0.6%持平,远好于市场预期0.2%。数据公布后,现货黄金短线 下挫,跌破3690美元,又迅速收复失地,一度向上突破3700美元关口。 地缘政治方面,近几日,俄罗斯安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫再次向支持乌克兰的北约发出严正警告,如果北约国家在"特别军事行动"期间,在乌克兰上空击 落俄罗斯的无人机,这将使俄罗斯与北约处于战争状态。 智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为,黄金不惧短线的利 ...
百利好早盘分析:政策巨变在即 年会指引方向
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 01:37
Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]
百利好早盘分析:通胀担忧上升 多空陷入两难
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 01:50
Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that most officials emphasized inflation risks over labor market concerns, leading to a split in opinions regarding tariff policies [2] - Following the release of the minutes, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 92% to 81%, with market focus shifting to Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish signal with prices breaking above the 60/120-day moving averages, with support at $3335 and resistance at $3358 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 601.4 thousand barrels, contrasting with expectations of a decline of 175.9 thousand barrels [4] - The IEA forecasts that global oil production will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025, reaching 105.5 million barrels, and will further rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] - Despite the significant drop in inventories, oil prices remain weak due to an oversupply situation, with prices fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index showed a bearish trend with a strong rebound near the support level of 22970, focusing on potential reversal signals in the 23100-23300 range [7] - The Dollar Index experienced a spinning top candlestick pattern, with a brief rise into the 98.30-98.65 range before a slight pullback, indicating a focus on testing the 98.50 level [8]
百利好早盘分析:鲍威尔被指控 金价持续走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 01:56
Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. House of Representatives has filed criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleging he committed perjury during testimony regarding the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve, which increased from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2] - The European Union has approved tariffs on U.S. goods worth €21 billion in response to Trump's tariff policies, contributing to market concerns and driving up gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend in gold prices, with support at $3,380 and resistance at $3,450 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC has maintained its oil demand forecast while increasing production expectations, with Saudi Arabia supplying approximately 400,000 barrels per day to the market in June [4] - Geopolitical tensions remain high, with Ukraine's President Zelensky proposing new talks with Russia, but significant military actions continue, indicating that short-term geopolitical risks may not impact oil prices [5] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend in oil prices, fluctuating between $64 and $70, with a critical support level at $65.10 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index reached a new historical high, with a bullish trend supported by the 60-day and 120-day moving averages [7] - The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant decline, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average, with a focus on potential price retracement around 98.10 [8]
百利好早盘分析:黄金震荡蓄势 维持多头格局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-21 02:16
黄金方面: 美联储即将进入静默时期,作为下任美联储主席热门候选人的现任理事沃勒重申支持7月降息25个基点,并且近期数据显示消费者对通胀的预期有所改善。 美国与欧盟的贸易紧张局势持续,特朗普力推对所有欧盟商品征收20%左右的最低关税,并计划在8月1日前宣布针对特定行业的关税计划。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师麦东认为,目前利多金价的因素正在逐步累积。市场认为7月利率决议维持不变,但仍有不确定因素,鲍威尔能否在重压之 下保持美联储独立性,仍需要关注。 技术面:日线上,昨日收小阴线。1小时级别,短期下降通道破位,市场短期的上升趋势形成,但60和120周期的双根均线走势比较平缓,表明上升仍在蓄力 之中,今日多空分水岭关注3335美元。 黄金小时图 原油方面: 7月19日,英国外交部宣布对俄情报机构进行制裁。声明表示,英国与欧盟下调俄罗斯原油出口的价格上限,将原油价格上限从每桶60美元降至47.6美元。 此举将打击俄罗斯的石油产业,拉低俄原油市场价值,重创了俄罗斯的资金来源。受此影响,今日开盘原油市场应声下跌1.2美元左右。 供给端方面,沙特近期修改了原油统计的计量标准来报告6月原油产量。根据欧佩克的最新月度报告,该国 ...
百利好早盘分析:美国政要发声 避险情绪助涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 01:46
Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Bostic reiterated expectations for a rate cut this year, briefly suppressing gold prices around $3295 [2] - Concerns arose after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated plans to seek a successor for Fed Chair Powell, alongside Trump's comments reigniting focus on the trade war with China [2] - Analyst Mai Dong noted that the return of U.S.-China tariff issues shifted market focus, leading to a rebound in gold prices [2] - Technically, gold showed a bullish trend with support at $3250 and a key resistance level at $3320 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions eased, reducing potential supply risks, with OPEC+ expected to maintain a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August [4] - Trump's call to lower oil prices and encourage shale oil production, combined with profit-taking during the Iran conflict, led to a rapid decrease in net long positions in oil [5] - Seasonal demand remains strong due to summer travel peaks in Europe and the U.S., with ongoing positive signals from tariff negotiations [5] - Technically, the oil market is in a range between $63.95 and $66.90, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and Dollar Index - The Nasdaq continued its upward trend but faced pressure from Trump's criticisms of China [7] - The U.S. dollar weakened, breaking below the previous low of 96.97, with a focus on potential pullbacks around 97.20 [8]
百利好晚盘分析:避险情绪降温 金价重心下移
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 09:52
Gold Market - The gold price has been under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and a lack of increased safe-haven buying amid Middle East tensions, with prices dropping to a one-week low of $3340 [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, suggesting a 250 basis point rate cut, while the Fed maintained rates in June, with an increasing number of officials expecting no cuts this year [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, including potential negotiations with Iran, has also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced volatility, initially rising to $77.66 due to concerns over U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, but later fell to around $73 as negotiations were announced [3] - The easing of tensions through potential talks between the U.S. and Iran has reduced risk premiums in the oil market, leading to a significant price drop [3] - Current EIA data indicates rising seasonal demand and low compliance with OPEC+ production increases, which may limit further declines in oil prices despite geopolitical uncertainties [3] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. Dollar Index has retreated from above the 99 level, with support noted around 98.50 and resistance at 99.40, indicating potential for a bottoming pattern [4] Dow Jones Industrial Average - The Dow Jones has shown a downward trend, with resistance at approximately 42200, suggesting a risk of accelerated declines if it remains below this level [5]
百利好早盘分析:美联储决议无意外 中东迷局未撑金价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 09:04
Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision signals a hawkish stance, leading to a drop in gold prices by approximately $20 on June 18, with prices falling below $3350, marking a one-week low [1] - The Fed maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with an increasing number of officials supporting no rate cuts this year, which has negatively impacted gold prices [1] - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty, which may limit further declines in gold prices, depending on U.S. military actions and Iran's responses [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The potential U.S. military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict is a significant factor, alongside a substantial drop in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, which saw a decrease of 11.473 million barrels, indicating rising seasonal demand [3][6] - Oil prices experienced volatility but returned above $75, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions and inventory changes [3][5] - The technical outlook suggests that oil prices are in a range-bound movement, with a critical support level at $73.20; maintaining above this level could indicate a bullish trend [6] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. Dollar Index has broken through the downtrend line since May 13, regaining the 99 level, with a potential upward movement towards 100.50 if it surpasses the 99.40 resistance [7] Group 4: Dow Jones - The Dow Jones has shown signs of weakness after breaking below the uptrend line since April, with a support level at 41800; a breach could lead to further selling pressure [8]
百利好晚盘分析:市场窄幅震荡 静待利率决议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 09:27
Gold Market - The U.S. retail sales for May showed a month-on-month decline of 0.9%, lower than the expected 0.7% and the previous value of -0.1%, marking the largest drop since March 2023, indicating a sluggish consumer market which is somewhat bullish for gold prices [1] - Following the data release, gold prices saw reduced downward momentum, hitting a low of $3366 before continuing to trade in a narrow range [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a key focus for the gold market, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged [1] Oil Market - The API reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a drop of 10.133 million barrels, far below the expected decrease of 580,000 barrels, indicating strong oil consumption which supports rising oil prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with Russia launching a large-scale counteroffensive against Ukraine and the EU planning to ban imports of Russian oil and gas [2] Geopolitical Tensions - U.S. President Trump urged Iran to surrender unconditionally, while Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated the need for a strong response against Israel, indicating ongoing tensions with no signs of reconciliation [3] - The conflict between Iran and Israel is intensifying, which, combined with increased oil demand, provides strong support for oil prices [3] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index continues to oscillate within the range of 21450 to 22060, with recent poor retail data causing a dip to a low of 21630, as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for clearer direction [4] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index is fluctuating between 97.50 and 99.20, with significant support at 97.50 leading to a strong rebound and a short-term upward trend [5]