Economic Overview - Australia's December PMI preliminary value shows a divergence in the private sector economy, with the composite PMI expansion momentum slowing to a seven-month low [1] - Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.6 in November to 52.2, supported by growth in new orders and strong exports, while the services PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.0, dragging down overall economic expansion [1][34] - The composite PMI dropped from 52.6 to 51.1, remaining above the 50 mark for the 15th consecutive month but marking the lowest growth rate in seven months [1][34] Market Insights - New orders in the Australian private sector remain solid, providing a foundation for output growth, although the overall growth rate has slowed [2] - Employment data continues to show growth as companies hire more staff to meet existing workloads, with business confidence rising to its highest level since June [2] - However, there is a divergence in backlogs, with manufacturing backlogs increasing while service sector backlogs have decreased for eight consecutive months, leading to an overall reduction in backlog volume [2] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - Input cost inflation has intensified in both sectors, with commodity input costs rising at the fastest pace in eight months, leading companies to pass some costs onto consumers, pushing sales price inflation to a three-month high [2][35] - The Australian dollar has depreciated against the US dollar, falling below the 0.662 mark due to the composite PMI slowdown and declining consumer confidence [2][35] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in Australia has declined in December, reversing the previous month's gains, with the index dropping 9% to 94.5 points, indicating a return to pessimism [3][36] - Households are increasingly worried about inflation and interest rate prospects, with expectations for personal financial situations and economic outlooks declining significantly [3][36] US Retail Sales and Economic Activity - US retail sales in October remained flat, indicating consumer spending is under pressure, particularly affecting lower-income households, while high-income households continue to show spending resilience [4][37] - The October core retail sales, excluding volatile categories, increased by 0.8%, suggesting consumer spending is still supporting economic growth [5][38] - In December, US business activity slowed to a six-month low, with the composite PMI dropping to 53.0, indicating a weakening economic momentum [6][39] Inventory Trends - US business inventories grew by 0.2% in September, slightly above expectations, indicating potential support for GDP growth, but also reflecting underlying demand pressures [8][41] - Retail inventories increased by 0.4%, with significant growth in motor vehicle inventories, while wholesale inventories rose by 0.5% [9][42]

Group 1 - Investors are concerned about the high valuations in the AI industry, leading to cautious trading and a collective decline in the three major U.S. stock indices on Monday, with the Dow Jones down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.16%, and Nasdaq down 0.59% [1] - The sell-off in AI infrastructure stocks continues, with major companies like Broadcom and Oracle experiencing significant declines. Broadcom's stock fell 5.59% and Oracle's stock fell 2.66% on Monday, marking a four-day decline of over 18% for Broadcom and 17.7% for Oracle [5] - Oracle's AI infrastructure business is increasingly reliant on debt financing, raising concerns about the potential for debt growth to outpace profit growth [5] Group 2 - European investors expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, boosting market risk appetite and leading to gains in banking and retail stocks. The UK stock market rose by 1.06%, France by 0.70%, and Germany by 0.18% [7] - International oil prices fell, with light crude oil for January delivery closing at $56.82 per barrel, down 1.08% [8]

他 预计2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降 ，房租也将大幅下降，并认为尽管物价水平已经非常高，但实际工资的提升将能解决 这一问题。 同时，贝森特指出，美国总统 特朗普将于1月初公布美联储主席人选，本周可能还有一到两次面试 。这一关键任命将影响未来 数年美国货币政策走向，市场对此高度关注。 贝森特在表态中否认了外界对新任美联储主席独立性的质疑，称特朗普在面试中对政策相关问题一直非常直率。他表示， 候选 人沃什和哈塞特都非常有资格，并驳斥了"哈塞特无法在美联储拥有影响力"的说法。 贝森特称， 国会应当停止（议员的）股票交易行为。 贝森特称，本周和下周可能还有一两次美联储主席的面试，否认对新任主席独立性的质疑，称候选人沃什和哈塞特都非常有资 格，强调新主席要有"开放的思维"，特别是要打破联储常有的增长导致通胀观念，驳斥哈塞特无法在联储拥有影响力的说法；预 计1月最高院作出关税案裁决，警告推翻关税将危害国家安全；一季度会有1000亿至1500亿美元巨额退税，平均每个家庭可能 得到1000至2000美元。 新美联储主席要打破增长导致通胀的观念 周二（12月16日），美国财政部长贝森特表示，对美国经济前景表达乐观预期，预计 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve should prioritize controlling inflation, as high price pressures may persist into next year and beyond [1] - Bostic advocates for maintaining interest rates until 2026, citing multiple "tailwinds" in the economy that could continue to exert upward pressure on inflation [1] - The recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points faced opposition from three officials, indicating a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path [1][2] Group 2 - The median forecast from the latest dot plot indicates that Federal Reserve officials expect only one rate cut next year, despite market expectations for two cuts [2] - Bostic acknowledges a cooling labor demand but does not foresee a severe downturn in the labor market, attributing some changes to structural factors rather than solely interest rate adjustments [2] - Many businesses expect to continue raising prices at least until 2026, with "super core" service inflation remaining high, potentially keeping overall inflation near 3% for an extended period [2] Group 3 - Bostic announced his retirement at the end of February, with the selection process for his successor already initiated by the Atlanta Fed [3] - He clarified that his decision to retire was personal and not influenced by the evaluation pressures related to the reappointment process [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to continue addressing inflation, predicting that high price pressures will persist into most of next year [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Bostic suggests that the Fed should maintain interest rates unchanged during the December policy meeting and throughout 2026 due to ongoing economic tailwinds that may exert upward pressure on inflation [1] - He believes that price stability remains a clearer and more urgent risk, with little indication that price pressures will dissipate before mid-2026 [1] - Bostic forecasts that inflation will remain above 2.5% even by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Although labor demand is cooling, Bostic does not foresee a severe recession in the labor market as the most likely scenario [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：进一步降息会将货币政策推向或进入宽松领域，从而使通胀和通胀预期面临风险。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

一、风向大转：就业焦虑压过通胀 说白了，美联储最近的操作真是让人摸不着头脑，但又不得不盯着。12 月 10 号这一天，他们完成了今 年第三次连续降息，把联邦基金利率调到了 3.5% 到 3.75% 之间。 可能有人不懂这利率是啥意思，咱们通俗点说，这就是美国银行之间互相借钱的利息，它一降，老百姓 的房贷、车贷利息也可能跟着降，企业借钱扩大生产的成本也会变低。 虽然 12 月非农数据看着亮眼，新增了 25.2 万人，远超预期，但仔细一看全是 "水分"—— 制造业就业 已经是负增长，招人主要集中在医疗保健、零售这些行业，大部分行业的招聘都冷冷清清。 更关键的是，工资涨得越来越慢，12 月平均时薪同比才 3.9%，再扣掉通胀，老百姓手里的实际收入几 乎没涨，甚至可能还在缩水。 不少打工人都在担心，再这么下去，是不是要 "关灯吃面" 了？ 但这次降息跟以前不一样，核心关注点彻底换了。 你发现没？以前美联储开口闭口都是 "干通胀"，现在却把就业当成了头等大事。费城联储主席安娜・ 保尔森（Anna Paulson）说得特别直白：比起通胀再涨，她更怕就业市场垮掉。 这位 2026 年就能在 FOMC 投票拍板的关键人物，用 ...

责任编辑：张俊 SF065 随着特朗普关税政策造成美国的食品、人工和公用事业成本上涨，达登餐饮旗下的Olive Garden （DRI）、Texas Roadhouse（TXRH）以及Dine Brands旗下的Applebee's（DIN）依靠选择性提价、简化 菜单及与Sysco（SYY）等供应链伙伴合作，以抵消不利影响。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 随着特朗普关税政策造成美国的食品、人工和公用事业成本上涨，达登餐饮旗下的Olive Garden （DRI）、Texas Roadhouse（TXRH）以及Dine Brands旗下的Applebee's（DIN）依靠选择性提价、简化 菜单及与Sysco（SYY）等供应链伙伴合作，以抵消不利影响。 ...

最新数据显示，美国就业数据喜忧参半：美国11月非农就业人口增长6.4万人，预期5万人；美国11月失 业率4.6%，预期4.5%。与此同时，10月就业人数大幅减少10.5万人，降幅明显超过此前市场预期的减少 2.5万人。 另外，美国最新公布的经济数据全面不及预期： 在美国非农数据公布后，黄金爆发。 美股方面，三大指数在短线拉升后跳水，截至发稿已悉数转跌。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌0.79%。新东方跌超3%，小牛电动、霸王茶姬、网易跌超 2%。 黄金直线拉升。截至发稿，现货黄金报4322美元/盎司，报涨0.41%。 美国财长贝森特称：预计美国2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降，美联储主席人选或将于1月初公布。 责编：陈丽湘 校对：祝甜婷 美国12月标普全球服务业PMI初值52.9，创6月份以来新低，预期54，前值54.1。 12月标普全球综合PMI初值53，创6月以来新低，预期53.9，前值54.2；新订单分项指数初值降低 至50.8，创2024年4月份以来新低。 12月标普全球制造业PMI初值51.8，创7月份以来新低，预期52.1，前值52.2；新订单分项指数初 值降低至49.6，结束之前的扩张趋势 ...

Yared在发表讲话。 责任编辑：丁文武 白宫经济顾问委员会代理主席Pierre Yared表示，通胀正在"重新趋于正常，回落至历史区间"。 白宫经济顾问委员会代理主席Pierre Yared表示，通胀正在"重新趋于正常，回落至历史区间"。 "你看看自本届政府当政以来的通胀率，目前约为2.5%。这非常接近约在2%到2.3%之间的CPI正常区 间，"他说道。 Yared在发表讲话。 "你看看自本届政府当政以来的通胀率，目前约为2.5%。这非常接近约在2%到2.3%之间的CPI正常区 间，"他说道。 责任编辑：丁文武 ...