环保有成本，中国是如何把成本转变为红利的？对此，曹远征指出，超大规模性是理解中国经济发展的 一把钥匙，它是中国经济集成创新的基础，也是其经济韧性的来源。 曹远征指出，超大规模性是中国经济集成创新的基础，也是其经济韧性的来源。 在12月18日举行的"2025第一财经资本年会"上，中国经济五十人论坛成员、清华大学管理实践访问教授 曹远征以"中国经济韧性及产业发展路径——对中国经济超大规模性的认识"为主题发表演讲。 曹远征指出，传统上，人们将碳减排视为一种发展的成本，中国却把绿色发展转变为红利，新能源车就 是典型的红利出现。 "电池加轮子在一百多年前就已出现，但中国把它变成与燃油车媲美的商业化大规模生产的新兴产业。 其技术路线既不是传统的电瓶车，也不是现代的燃油车。其零部件需要专门研发和配套生产。"曹远征 表示。 以比亚迪为例，曹远征指出，与其配套的专用零部件40%出产于在大湾区的企业。这意味着比亚迪生产 链和供应链上分工更加专业化，而更加细化分工预示着更为显著的规模经济，使在这一网络中专门生产 的特种配套产品，也因比亚迪的世界级规模而成为世界级量产，其中刀片电池就是例证。 曹远征认为，原创的高技术对国家经济发展固 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing economic resilience in the face of global uncertainties and challenges, particularly in the context of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Resilience - Economic resilience refers to a country's ability to withstand external shocks and internal structural pressures, adapting quickly and recovering effectively [2]. - The current global supply chain restructuring highlights the need for self-sufficiency and control over critical supply chains, as geopolitical tensions rise [3]. - The concept of economic resilience is closely tied to national security, with issues like energy, food, and data security becoming integral to economic decision-making [3]. Group 2: China's Economic Transition - China's shift towards high-quality development necessitates enhanced economic resilience to mitigate the pains of transition and prevent systemic risks [4]. - The central economic work conference outlines five key imperatives, including maximizing economic potential and balancing policy support with reform innovation [4]. - The focus on technological self-reliance is crucial, particularly in overcoming "choke point" technologies in sectors like integrated circuits and core seed sources [4]. Group 3: Advantages of China's Economy - China's super-large market, with over 1.4 billion people and a significant middle-income group, provides a robust foundation for domestic demand resilience [5]. - The complete industrial system in China supports supply chain resilience, allowing for rapid response to market demands and mitigating disruptions [6]. - Strong innovation capabilities, backed by substantial R&D investments, position China to achieve self-sufficiency in critical technology areas [7]. Group 4: Governance and Institutional Strength - The centralized leadership of the Communist Party enables effective governance, which has been demonstrated in crisis management, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic [8]. - Current policies aim to enhance the business environment and ensure rapid responses to economic shocks, thereby strengthening governance resilience [8]. Group 5: Global Economic Integration - China's deep integration into the global economy, through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, reduces reliance on single markets and enhances economic resilience [9]. - The focus on expanding high-standard trade agreements and optimizing free trade zones supports a dual circulation strategy, leveraging both domestic and international markets [9]. Group 6: Pathways to Enhance Economic Resilience - Strengthening supply chain resilience involves focusing on key industries and ensuring a modernized industrial system that can withstand global competition [10]. - Enhancing technological innovation requires collaboration between government, academia, and industry to foster a robust innovation ecosystem [11]. - Promoting domestic consumption and effective investment strategies is essential for sustaining economic growth and resilience [12].

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing numerous challenges, the Chinese economy demonstrates significant resilience, with a notable potential for future growth as highlighted by the World Bank's Chief Economist for China, Melissa [1] Economic Performance - The World Bank has raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2025 by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting better-than-expected performance compared to earlier predictions [1] - The term "resilience" is emphasized as a key descriptor of China's economic performance this year [2] Policy Measures - The Chinese government has implemented stronger macroeconomic policies, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which have helped boost domestic consumption and investment [2] - The diversification of export markets, particularly towards emerging markets, has supported overall export performance [2] Structural Reforms - Continuous reforms, such as enhancing social security measures and promoting private sector confidence, are crucial for maintaining economic resilience [3] - Initiatives like increasing basic pension benefits, providing childcare subsidies, and promoting free preschool education are aimed at reducing precautionary savings and sustainably boosting domestic consumption [3] Innovation and Investment - China has established an innovative ecosystem that drives cutting-edge research, with foreign direct investment (FDI) in high-tech sectors accounting for about one-third of new inflows, indicating strong interest from international investors [3] - The focus on high-quality development, particularly in consumption-driven growth, innovation transformation, and low-carbon development, presents numerous new opportunities [3] Long-term Outlook - The World Bank has also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.4 percentage points, anticipating that macroeconomic policies and structural reforms will continue to yield positive effects [4] - The transition from rapid growth to a more sustainable growth model emphasizes quality, with ongoing green and low-carbon transformations expected to create new growth and employment opportunities [4] Global Impact - China's economic growth is deemed crucial for global economic growth, playing a significant role in global value and supply chains, not only through exports but also by investing overseas and transferring technology and skills [4]

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 消息面上， 美联储降息预期改变。 据财联社援引CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基 点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为75.6%。 国内经济有韧性。 12月15日国内最新经济数据出炉，11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳 中有进发展态势。（ 详情 ） 海外资金加速流入中国。 近期，国际货币基金组织（IMF）、世界银行及多家全球顶尖金融机 构接连发布报告，上调对中国经济增长的预期。尽管面临复杂内外环境，中国经济的韧性与政 策成效获得广泛认可，海外资金对中国市场的关注度与配置兴趣正显著回升。（ 详情 ） （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 12月15日，人民币走强，截至12:00左右，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.05附近，为2024年10 月8日以来的最强水平；离岸人民币击穿7.05，达7.04686。 12月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0656，下调18点。 | W | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | USDCNY ...

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。 回望2025、定调2026，从这场重要会议中，可以清晰看到中国经济应对变局、开拓新局的底气。 读懂这份底气，可以从三个词说起。 ——韧性 中新网12月12日电 题：开局之年，有底气 当前的中国经济怎么看？ "我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变"，在12月3日的党外人士座谈会上，习近平总 书记给出明确判断。 站在"十四五"收官和"十五五"开局的重要交汇点，此次中央经济工作会议提出，"我国经济顶压前 行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极 进展，民生保障更加有力"。 顶压前行、向新向优，外界评论称，面对当前国际经济环境，中国经济"韧"的特性更加凸显。 韧性从何而来？ 从全球看，前三季度，我国国内生产总值同比增长5.2%，在主要经济体中名列前茅；从身边看， 人形机器人从春晚舞台走到了机器人运动会，DeepSeek带动人工智能热潮……一个个涌动的热点，构 筑起经济微观层面的活力之基；从产业看，前三季度，我国装备制造业增加值同比增长9.7%，高技术 制造业增加值增长9.6 ...

今日关注 美联储降息25个基点。 财政部拟发行7500亿元到期续作特别国债。 11月CPI同比上涨0.7%。 沐曦股份披露首次公开发行股票并在科创板上市发行结果，网上20349股遭弃购。 2.财政部将于12月12日开展2025年到期续作特别国债发行。财政部有关负责人就此接受采访表示，2025年到期续作的7500亿元特别国债将在全国银行间债 券市场面向有关银行定向发行，期限品种包括10年期4000亿元、15年期3500亿元。发行过程不涉及社会投资者，个人投资者不能购买。2025年到期续作特 别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债相对应，不增加财政赤字。 3.12月10日，国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨0.7%，涨幅扩大；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连 续3个月保持在1%以上。同期，工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨；同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 4.12月10日，市场有传闻称，香港证监会、港交所于上周五(2025年12月5日)联名致函IPO保荐人，称旨在表达监管层对近期所递交的新上市申请中所 ...

中新网12月10日电 据国际货币基金组织(IMF)官网消息，国际货币基金组织(IMF)12月10日在北京表 示，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出显著韧性。IMF预计，2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较 2025年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个百分点。 ...

Core Insights - The forum focused on the resilience of the Chinese economy and the effective paths for financial empowerment in the context of the "Tariff 2.0 Era" [1][3] - Key discussions included China's positioning in the global capital market, the role of finance in supporting the real economy, and strategies for international participation in Chinese finance [5][6] Group 1: Global Market Trends - The global market has entered a new era of security, with geopolitical, economic, and fiscal safety becoming focal points; the U.S. government debt has reached 120% of GDP, and global central bank gold reserves have surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996 [6] - A technological revolution led by AI is reshaping the global market landscape, with AI-related companies contributing over 70% to the earnings growth of the S&P 500 index [6] - The K-shaped recovery is intensifying, leading to widening disparities between countries and social classes [6] - China's status as a major power is steadily rising, maintaining the world's largest manufacturing scale for 15 consecutive years, with enhanced industrial foundation and innovation capabilities [6] Group 2: Local Economic Development - Local governments should adopt a systemic approach to economic and social development, breaking the limitations of focusing solely on economic factors; the Yangtze River Delta region accounts for 40% of the national economy [7] - Key dimensions for local economic development include a holistic view, dialectical perspectives, cross-disciplinary thinking, and overall coordination with central policies [7][8] Group 3: Financial Empowerment and Investment Strategies - The forum emphasized the importance of financial empowerment in enhancing economic resilience, with discussions on how industries can extend towards market and demand sides to unlock valuation potential [10] - Investment strategies highlighted include focusing on high-dividend assets in the A-share market by 2025 and exploring opportunities in commercial aerospace, domestic computing, and intelligent technologies by 2026 [11] - The medical industry faces challenges from tariffs and trade barriers, necessitating overseas expansion and supply chain autonomy to mitigate risks [11] Group 4: Future Directions - The forum aimed to create a platform for deep dialogue among various sectors, with hopes of continuously gathering wisdom and strength to support the steady development of the Chinese economy in the Tariff 2.0 era [12]

本次论坛邀请三位重要嘉宾，分别从全球市场、地方治理、学术研究维度带来深度分享。上海领军金 才、中国太平资产管理有限公司资深专家徐钢总结了全球市场四大核心趋势。其一，全球已进入新的大 安全时代，地缘政治、经济、财政三大安全维度成为关注焦点，美国政府债务占GDP比例已达120%， 全球央行黄金储备占比自1996年以来首次超过美债。其二，以AI为代表的科技革命正深刻重塑全球市 场格局，算力与数据已成为核心生产要素，美国AI相关企业对标普500指数的盈利增长贡献占比超 70%。其三，全球K型分化持续加剧。其四，中国大国地位稳步崛起，制造业规模连续多年居世界第 一，产业基础与创新能力持续提升，出口竞争力进一步凸显。基于此，他提出投资应拥抱确定性、变革 与健康三大方向，把握技术创新与需求升级带来的机遇。 上海市宝山区发展和改革委员会党组书记、主任高虹军结合宝山区实践案例围绕"运用系统观念推进地 方经济社会发展"展开分享。他认为，要以系统思维推进经济社会联动。长三角等三大区域经济体量约 占全国40%，地方政府应该更加主动作为，以经济运行的底层逻辑保障稳中求进的发展态势。需把握四 大维度：全局视野是基础，新刚需挖掘是增长关键 ...

Group 1: Economic Resilience and New Productive Forces - The conference in Guangzhou focused on the resilience of the Chinese economy and the concept of new productive forces, with participation from domestic and international entrepreneurs sharing their insights on China's economic development [1][4]. - Entrepreneurs emphasized the importance of traditional industries enhancing competitiveness and sustainable development, urging the adoption of new technologies and self-improvement [3][4]. Group 2: Insights from Chinese Entrepreneurs - Cao Dewang, founder of Fuyao Glass, highlighted that traditional manufacturing must maintain confidence and determination to navigate through changing times, noting that Fuyao Glass has become the world's largest automotive glass supplier with nearly 40% of the global market share [3][4]. - He also stressed the social responsibility of enterprises, stating that they should create value for the country and society, exemplified by his establishment of Fuyao University with a 10 billion yuan investment [3]. Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Development - Xie Tieniu, chairman of Zhengjia Group, discussed the essence of tourism as culture, advocating for projects that immerse international audiences in Chinese civilization, aligning with China's 14th Five-Year Plan to build a "tourism powerhouse" [4]. - He proposed a shift in the cultural tourism industry towards valuing cultural spirit and innovative experiences, moving away from reliance on natural scenery and historical sites [4]. Group 4: Foreign Perspectives on China's Economic Growth - Giovanni Di Giovanni, chairman of Eni China, noted that China's strategic decisions in cultivating new productive forces present dual opportunities for the energy sector, emphasizing the transition towards green innovation [5]. - He remarked on China's modernization process providing multinational companies with stable growth opportunities, supported by a large market and unique advantages in the new energy sector [5].