Report Title - "Pork Futures and Options August 2025 Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy expectation has led to a reversal in the futures monthly spread. The domestic inflation expectation is expected to rise, and the pig futures price once soared. The far-month 2601 contract price has shifted to a premium structure relative to the near-month and spot prices [3]. - The marginal risk brought by tariffs will gradually decrease, and the market's extreme situation probability such as global economic recession and significant damage to commodity trade has declined. The domestic market is focusing on hedging policies, and the market is "desensitized" to Sino-US relations [3]. - The overall financial attribute of agricultural products is relatively weak, and they are less affected by the macro environment. Currently, the prices of basic agricultural products are at a historical low level, with low valuations and potential for rebound [3]. - Pig enterprises have experienced about 12 months of high-level profitability. Although the industry's absolute production capacity has not increased significantly, the production efficiency per sow has been greatly improved. With policy expectations, the overcapacity of breeding sows is unlikely [3]. - The pig price in 2025 may not be worse than that in 2023 [3]. - Regarding the pig futures price in the second half of 2025, if the macro expectation continues to strengthen, there are conditions for the undervalued commodities to have their valuations revised upwards. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the futures price is below the breeding cost of 13,500 - 14,000 points, or buy call options near the cost [4]. Summary by Directory 2025 July and August Market Review and Outlook - In July, the "anti-involution" atmosphere drove up the prices of risk assets, and the domestic inflation expectation was expected to rise. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with leading group enterprises, emphasizing measures such as reducing the inventory of breeding sows, controlling the slaughter weight, and restricting secondary fattening, which released a policy signal to support the market [3]. - The soybean and corn prices have reached the bottom range, and it is difficult for the feed cost to continue to decrease in 2025. The current increase in production capacity is mainly reflected in the utilization efficiency rather than the absolute production capacity. The continuous improvement in efficiency has a technical bottleneck, and there is a "scar effect" among retail investors. Therefore, although the upstream of the pig industry has experienced a long period of profitability, it has not accumulated excessive risks [4]. 2025 July Pig Spot and Futures Price Review - In July, the "anti-involution" had little impact on agricultural products, and the volatility of the sector was relatively low. The pig spot and futures prices showed a divergent trend, and the "anti-involution" policy led to a surge in the futures price [6][8]. - From January to July 2025, the agricultural product index showed different trends due to various factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, tariff policies, and seasonal factors. In July, the breeding sector hit a new low [7]. - The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at a relatively low level in history, and the ratio of pig futures to feed is close to the historical low level [10][13]. - In 2025, the piglet price in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the feed price fluctuated overall. The terminal consumption did not show significant improvement, but the average price of pork carcasses was higher than that in 2023. The prices of beef, mutton, poultry, eggs, vegetables, and aquatic products showed different trends [18][21][24]. - According to historical data, the pig spot price in the second quarter is prone to seasonal increases, and the price in August has a high probability of rising [39][40]. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The current inventory of breeding sows is in the green range, and the cumulative increase compared with March 2024 is about 3% [43][44]. - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared with previous years, the price of replacement gilts has been stable, and the market speculation enthusiasm has declined [45][48]. - The production efficiency per sow has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. In May 2025, the pig slaughter volume continued to increase, but the increase may not be large [50][54][55]. Listed Pig Enterprises - The profitability of listed companies has shown significant differentiation, the monthly sales of piglets of listed companies have decreased, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high level [59][62][64]. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - From July to August, the hot weather and the relatively high weight of pigs are the main risks affecting the spot price. In July, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly but was lower than the level in 2023. The import volume of pork and offal has declined from the high level, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly at a low level in June 2025 [68][71][73]. - The current average monthly profitability is at the historical median level, and the profit of purchasing piglets in July is close to the break - even point [79]. Pig Futures Market - In July, the futures price broke away from the spot price and soared, and the futures price has shifted to a premium relative to the spot price. The pig index rebounded from the historical low, and the trading volume and open interest increased significantly [80][81]. - The 2503 and 2505 contracts' futures prices finally rebounded from the low level to make up for the discount to the spot price, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts are near the breeding cost. The near - month contracts have shifted from a discount to a premium relative to the spot price, and the far - month contracts' premium in the peak season has widened under the policy support [84][87][90]. - The basis is stronger than in the same period of previous years. Attention should be paid to the way of the regression of the pig spot and futures prices in the third quarter, and the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage [93][96]. - The volatility of the pig 2509 contract has rebounded [102]. Pig Market Summary - In the third quarter, the macro environment may be the main driving force for the rise of the pig price. Attention should be paid to the real improvement of key consumption [104]. - In trading, it is advisable to buy the 2511 contract at low levels, or short the 2601 contract and long the 2605 contract at an appropriate time. For options, sell the wide - straddle price - spread combination when the volatility is high [104].

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experiencing declines of 1.18% and 1.82% respectively, while the bond market is showing signs of recovery [2][4] - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, indicating a marginal economic slowdown, which has further pressured market risk appetite and bolstered bond market sentiment [4][5] - Institutional confidence is gradually recovering, with funds returning to the bond market, particularly into balanced and index bond funds, suggesting a potential acceleration of the bond bull market [5][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 42.51 points or 1.18%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4075.59, down 75.65 points or 1.82% [1] - The bond market saw a slight increase in the 7-10 year national development bond index, which rose by 0.12% [1] Market Adjustments - The equity market is undergoing a correction phase, with significant outflows from stock ETFs totaling 25.3 billion yuan since July 24, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment [7] - The afternoon session saw a notable decline in the market following concerns over Nvidia's chip safety issues, which affected risk appetite [6][9] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the bond bull market may be entering an accelerated phase, with a focus on long-duration bonds as institutional investors show renewed interest [5] - The ongoing adjustments in U.S.-China trade relations are expected to influence market expectations, potentially driving funds back to safe-haven assets like bonds [5][6]

Group 1 - Wang Yi emphasized that China maintains a consistent and stable policy towards the U.S., focusing on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation [3] - The Chinese economy showed resilience and positive growth in the first half of the year, with plans to expand high-level opening-up and create a favorable business environment for foreign investment [5] - The U.S. business community is encouraged to continue investing in China, contributing to mutual growth and cooperation in various sectors such as trade, technology, and healthcare [7] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade relationship is deemed one of the most important bilateral relationships globally, with both countries being significant economic partners despite challenges [9] - The Chinese government remains committed to opening its market further, welcoming foreign investment, including from U.S. companies, to share development opportunities [9][10] - The U.S.-China Trade Council expressed its intention to enhance bilateral economic cooperation and cultural exchanges, aiming for a stronger and more balanced relationship [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Wang Yi and the US-China Business Council delegation emphasizes the importance of stable and healthy US-China relations, highlighting mutual respect, cooperation, and win-win principles as essential for both nations' development [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Cooperation - Wang Yi stated that China will continue to expand high-level opening-up and create a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment, encouraging US companies to invest in China for mutual benefits [6][11]. - The US-China Business Council representatives expressed optimism about China's commitment to further opening up, which is crucial for foreign enterprises, including those from the US, to invest and operate in China [6][11]. - Wang Wentao emphasized that the US and China remain important economic partners despite challenges, and that dialogue and consultation are key to resolving differences [11]. Group 2: Strategic Communication - Both sides agreed on the necessity of establishing more communication channels to avoid misunderstandings and manage differences, aiming for a stronger, balanced, and mutually beneficial relationship [4][7]. - The representatives from the US business community indicated their commitment to deepening trade, investment, and cooperation in various sectors, including technology and healthcare, contributing to China's high-quality development [6][11]. - Wang Yi and Wang Wentao both highlighted the importance of maintaining stable and sustainable economic relations, with a focus on equal dialogue and collaboration [11].

Group 1 - The current global situation is characterized by turmoil, and the China-U.S. relationship is both influenced by and influences global trends. China maintains a consistent and stable policy towards the U.S., focusing on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation [1] - China aims to expand high-level opening-up and create a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment, encouraging U.S. companies to invest in China for mutual benefits and growth [2] - The U.S. business community recognizes the importance of China's commitment to further opening up, which is crucial for foreign investment, and expresses a willingness to deepen cooperation in trade, investment, technology innovation, and other sectors [3]

葛来仪补充，特朗普喜欢"微观管理"，将很多问题的"最终决定权"都握在自己手里，常常会"脱稿发挥"。不过，"中国屋"仍要确保他"有稿可脱"。 【文/观察者网 邵昀】 据新华社，因规模和开支飙涨，美国国务院日前正进行裁员和重组。7月25日，知情官员透露，美国国务院负责对华战略的"中国事务协调办公室"（也称"中 国屋"或"中国组"）将由新一任负责人乔舒亚·扬（Joshua Young）接手，且直接向美国务院"三号人物"、副国务卿艾莉森·胡克（Allison Hooker）汇报工作。 据悉，扬是自2022年"中国屋"成立以来的第四名"协调人"。此前，过往的"协调人"均向负责美国务院东亚暨太平洋事务局（EAP）的亚太助卿汇报。而在部 门重组后，"中国屋"仍将设在EAP下，但扬可"直接向七楼汇报"。七楼即国务卿鲁比奥、主管政务的副国务卿胡克等美国务院高层的办公室所在地。 资料图：乔舒亚·扬 美国务院网站 分析认为，这项重组很可能是为了加快白宫命令的执行，因为鲁比奥目前还兼任总统特朗普的国家安全顾问，而今年"中国屋"的首要任务之一，就是为特朗 普可能的访华行程做准备。 德国马歇尔基金会"印太项目"负责人葛来仪（Bonnie ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and cooperation between China and the U.S., the world's two largest economies, while rejecting conflict and confrontation [1]. Group 1 - Xie Feng highlighted the need for both countries to adhere to the principles of the one-China policy and the three joint communiqués to prevent conflicts, particularly regarding Taiwan [1]. - The ambassador called for a pragmatic and respectful approach from the U.S. towards China, aiming for mutual benefit and cooperation to stabilize and develop bilateral relations [1]. - He referenced historical cooperation during World War II, underscoring the shared commitment to peace and the importance of the United Nations in maintaining international order [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **A-share market** in China, with a particular emphasis on investor sentiment and regulatory developments impacting the market [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Improved Investor Sentiment**: A-share investor sentiment has improved significantly, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) rising by **10 percentage points** to **90%**, and the simple MSASI increasing by **13 percentage points** to **83%** compared to the previous cutoff date [2][6]. - **Increased Market Activity**: Average daily turnover (ADT) for ChiNext and A-shares increased by **11%** and **5%**, respectively, indicating heightened trading activity [2]. - **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of **US$2.1 billion** from July 17-23, contributing to year-to-date net inflows of **US$101.4 billion** [3]. - **Regulatory Developments**: The Chinese government's anti-involution campaign has positively influenced market sentiment, with various regulatory bodies taking steps to manage excessive competition in key industries, including the NEV sector and online food delivery platforms [4]. - **US-China Trade Relations**: Progress in US-China trade negotiations has further bolstered market sentiment, with upcoming economic talks scheduled [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Earnings Guidance**: Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, earnings guidance for Q2 2025 has shown resilience, with A-share pre-announcements improving to **-4.8%** and MSCI China rising by **6.8%** [14]. - **Caution on Overheating**: There is a warning against overestimating the potential for earnings growth recovery, suggesting that a rapid surge in consensus earnings estimates could indicate overly optimistic market expectations [16]. - **Consumer Sentiment**: The MS Consumer Pulse Survey indicates a continued lackluster consumer appetite, with concerns around job and income growth deepening in Q2 [13]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The anti-involution initiative is viewed as a constructive signal for enhancing earnings growth and improving return on equity (ROE) over the next **12-24 months**, although real change may require significant adjustments in local incentives and fiscal policies [15]. Conclusion - The A-share market is experiencing a positive shift in sentiment driven by regulatory support and improving trade relations, although caution is advised regarding the sustainability of this momentum and the underlying consumer sentiment challenges.

7月11日，东盟外长会议的会场外，潮湿的空气裹挟着各国外交官的焦虑。就在这场多边外交的舞台上，中美两国外长的闭门 会谈，像一颗投入水面的石子，激起层层涟漪——美国国务卿鲁比奥会后向全球高调抛出"合作"二字，而就在此前，他还曾公 开指责中国"暗中援助俄罗斯"。这场被外界称为"火药味中突现转机"的会晤，究竟藏着怎样的玄机？中美"联手"的最佳时机， 真的来了吗？ 面对中方的硬核回应，鲁比奥的反应耐人寻味。会前他还言之凿凿地称"中国援助俄罗斯"，试图用制裁施压；会后却突然改 口，强调"中美有合作空间"。这种180度转弯背后，是美方对现实的无奈妥协：经贸战打到145%关税仍未能压垮中国，军事围 堵在东盟主场反而凸显美国的孤立。更关键的是，特朗普政府急需一场外交"胜利"来转移国内矛盾——"MAGA派"的崩塌和军 方、财团的博弈，让白宫不得不重新评估对华策略。 美国国务卿鲁比奥（资料图） "合作"口号下的算计：美国到底想要什么？ 一场被迫的对话，还是精心设计的转折？ 东盟外长会议本是东南亚国家的主场，却因中美两国的介入成了国际焦点。自上台以来，美国对华关税战层层加码，中国商品 关税一度被推至145%的惊人水平。更棘手的是， ...

Report Overview - The report is the Shanghai Copper Industry Daily Report dated July 23, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index rebounded slightly but remained in the negative range. The domestic supply of copper may increase steadily and slightly, while demand is temporarily weak due to the seasonal consumption off - season. However, due to the strengthening of macro - policy benefits, the industry outlook is gradually being repaired. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 79,590 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,887 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest in Shanghai copper increased by 6,169 to 172,895 hands, while the top 20 long - short positions decreased by 915 to 668 hands. LME copper inventory increased by 2,775 tons to 124,850 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 325 tons to 12,250 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 15,535 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,790 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 79,805 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The CU main contract basis was 200 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 68.24 dollars/ton, down 1.28 dollars. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 65 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the Yangshan copper average premium was 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC for domestic copper smelters increased by 0.34 to - 43.45 dollars/kiloton. The prices of copper concentrates in Jiangxi and Yunnan increased by 70 yuan/metal ton to 70,030 yuan/metal ton and 70,730 yuan/metal ton respectively. The processing fees for blister copper in the South and North remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper was 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 55,740 yuan/ton, and the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 68,100 yuan/ton [2] Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products was 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real - estate development investment was 46,657.56 billion yuan, up 10,423.72 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.59%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.03%, up 0.01%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 13.12%, up 0.0072. The at - the - money option long - short ratio was 1.46, down 0.0735 [2] Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the new round of Sino - US negotiations may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, expressing the hope that the US side would work with China to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the Fed's independence in monetary policy and the responsibility for transparency and accountability. At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May, compared with a shortage of 80,000 tons in April. In the first five months of this year, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 272,000 tons, similar to the surplus of 273,000 tons in the same period last year [2]