30日，针对美方领导人关于中国人民解放军东部战区"正义使命-2025"演习的言论，外交部发言人林剑 在例行记者会上表示，台湾是中国领土不可分割的一部分。中国人民解放军开展有关军事演习，是 对"台独"分裂势力"以武谋独"的严厉惩戒，是捍卫国家主权和领土完整的必要行动。 杨荣文同时表示，美国总统特朗普不想让台湾地区成为问题，因为他与中国之间有着"重大议程"，他希 望在剩余任期内与中国保持稳定关系，不希望与中国之间再添上别的问题。 谈及日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论，杨荣文表示，高市被目前的处境"困住了"，中国大陆民众对台湾 的情感之深不容低估，"他们怎能忘记当初正是日本的侵略才将台湾与大陆分离的呢？" 针对高市早苗涉台错误言论，外交部发言人郭嘉昆在12月16日的例行记者会上表示，日本曾侵略并殖民 统治台湾50年，犯下罄竹难书的罪行，在台湾问题上负有历史罪责。台湾是中国领土不可分割的一部 分，如何解决台湾问题完全是中国自己的事，日本没有任何资格置喙。我们要再次敦促日方恪守中日四 个政治文件精神，切实反思纠错，撤回高市首相错误言论。 12月29日开始，中国人民解放军东部战区组织开展"正义使命-2025"演习。国防部新闻 ...

沪指收红。现货市场，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，沪指九连阳，当日涨0.04%收于3965.28点，创业板指跌0.66%。 行业方面，板块指数跌多涨少，石油石化、国防军工、银行行业涨幅居前，有色金属、公用事业、电力设备行业 跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额突破2万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.51%报48461.93点 期指减仓。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货基差回落。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量和持仓量同步下降。 FICC日报 | 2025-12-30 成交破两万亿，沪指九连阳 市场分析 关注中美关系。宏观方面，国务院关税税则委员会发布《2026年关税调整方案》，将自2026年1月1日起实施。根据 方案，为增强国内国际两个市场两种资源的联动效应，扩大优质商品供给，明年我国将对935项商品实施低于最惠 国税率的进口暂定税率。优化关税税目及本国子目注释，税则税目总数增加至8972个。海外方面，美国总统特朗 普表示，将在适当的时机宣布美联储主席人选，时间很充裕；批评美联储主席鲍威尔及美联储翻修大楼的做法； 正考虑起诉鲍威尔，指控他无法胜任工作。 策略 节前市场中，ETF规模呈现持续扩张态势，同期股票仓位却 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 关注中美关系。宏观方面，国务院关税税则委员会发布《2026年关税调整方案》，将自2026年1月1日起 实施。根据方案，为增强国内国际两个市场两种资源的联动效应，扩大优质商品供给，明年我国将对 935项商品实施低于最惠国税率的进口暂定税率。优化关税税目及本国子目注释，税则税目总数增加至 8972个。海外方面，美国总统特朗普表示，将在适当的时机宣布美联储主席人选，时间很充裕；批评美 联储主席鲍威尔及美联储翻修大楼的做法；正考虑起诉鲍威尔，指控他无法胜任工作。 沪指收红。现货市场，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，沪指九连阳，当日涨0.04%收于3965.28点，创业板 指跌0.66%。行业方面，板块指数跌多涨少，石油石化、国防军工、银行行业涨幅居前，有色金属、公 用事业、电力设备行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额突破2万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收 跌，道指跌0.51%报48461.93点 期指减仓。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货基差回落。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量和持仓量同步下 降。 策略 节前市场中，ETF ...

在中美关系保持总体稳定之际，两国元首此次会晤达成的重要共识，不仅为中美关系稳定发展作出新指 引、注入新动力，也为当前动荡不安的世界注入确定性、提供正能量。 当地时间10月30日，国家主席习近平在韩国釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。习近平指出，中美关系在 我们共同引领下，保持总体稳定。两国做伙伴、做朋友，这是历史的启示，也是现实的需要。 中国某港口一派繁忙景象。中国经济行稳致远为世界经济注入确定性。 ...

著名经济学家、民建中央经济委员会副主任马光远以《超级大周期下中国制造和供应链的未来》为主题作主旨演讲。他表示，中国经济不能以年份计算，不 能只看今年怎么样、明年怎么样，一定要放在一个大周期中来看。中国经济正因特朗普2.0"关税战"、人工智能、逆全球化浪潮等因素进入全新超级大周 期。过去辉煌的激情四射的年代结束了，我们现在面临的是一个全新的周期，我们必须与过去告别。那么未来是什么？未来决定全球格局的仍然是四个力 量，第一是中美关系，第二是中国制造，第三是全球供应链的重构，第四是人工智能。下一个五年，中国需要五大转变，从投资驱动转向创新驱动、从生产 大国迈向消费大国、从低端制造升级到高端制造、从出口大国转变为内需大国，以及弥补社保短板，建设民生大国。 2025年12月28日，由中国制造强国年会组委会、中制智库主办的第十届中国制造强国年会在北京万达文华酒店成功召开。本届年会以"实体为根 向新而 行"为主题，立足"十四五""十五五"规划承前启后、《中国制造2025》行动纲领十年收官的关键节点，探讨"十五五"时期中国制造业高质量发展之路。 马光远 著名经济学家、民建中央经济委员会副主任 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

但今天回头看，这段旅程远不止是"避难"。如果说最初我还带着"难民"的忐忑，那么现在，我感觉自己 更像是一个逐渐融入社区的"原住民"。 是的，我依然会闹笑话，发笔记时还是会犯些中文错误，可那种格格不入的感觉已经消失了。小红书给 了我一种罕见的接纳感，这里不是战场，而是一个我可以安心分享生活、结识朋友的地方。 我来到这里的初衷很简单：不是赚钱，而是搭建一座桥。一座能让中美普通人互相看见、互相理解的桥 梁。 为了能和更多人交流，我在小红书建了四个群。说实话，对我而言，要管理这些群是一个不小的工作， 尤其考虑到16小时的时差。幸运的是，群里的中国朋友们给了我巨大的帮助，他们自发地帮我维护社群 秩序。 从这些最初的"管理员"开始，我们渐渐从网友变成了朋友，我们在微信也建了群。我们会聊孩子沉迷游 戏的头疼，会分享工作的压力与家庭的温暖。我发现，尽管我们的政府结构不同、文化背景迥异，但作 为父亲、作为职场人、作为在生活中奋斗的个体，我们所面临的喜悦、烦恼与渴望是如此相似。 【文/观察者网专栏作者 木林】 从"TikTok难民"到"小红书原住民"的一年，我学到了什么？ 2025年初，因为大家都知道的原因，我像很多内容创作者一 ...

环球网消息，12月26日，中国外交部发布"关于对美国军工相关企业及高级管理人员采取反制措施的决 定"，宣布对20家美国军工企业及10名企业高级管理人员采取反制措施。分析认为，这次制裁是对美国 近期宣布向中国台湾地区进行大规模军售的回应。《环球时报》记者注意到，本次制裁名单涵盖了从美 国老牌防务巨头到新兴人工智能、无人机技术公司的全产业链，相关企业覆盖从重型武器、舰艇设计、 雷达系统，到无人机和人工智能战场支持等各个环节。 多名专家接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，此次制裁再次表明中方维护自身主权、安全和发展核心利 益的坚定意志、坚强决心以及能力，也向美方和国际社会传递出这样一个信号，即中美关系的健康、稳 定和可持续发展，必须建立在清除那些破坏中美关系良性构建的"蛀虫"、不良因素或不良分子的基础 上。 此外，一些新兴科技公司在人工智能和无人机领域也在美对台军售中扮演了一定角色，例如红猫控股是 美国本土的无人机与机器人解决方案供应商，专注于为国防和国家安全领域提供先进全域产品。其旗下 全资子公司蒂尔无人机公司也在此次制裁名单中。据《台湾新闻》报道，红猫控股研发的软硬件均为美 国制造，可支持陆、海、空多域的军事、政府 ...

在当今世界舞台上，中美关系无疑是最为引人瞩目的焦点之一。在特朗普再度宣告对中国半导体产业加征关税的背景下，各方反应不一，甚至颇具戏剧性。 有人认为这是稳定中美关系的信号，但是否真的如此？在这个看似错综复杂的局面中，我们是否能找到更深层次的逻辑和实质？ 首先，让我们审视特朗普政府此次加征关税的理由。特朗普声称，中国在半导体领域的"垄断行为"对美国企业造成了困扰，因而他决定采取行动。然而，这 种说辞显得相当牵强。加征关税的税率设定为0%，并且计划在18个月后才可能实施，显然是在态度和政策间摇摆不定。这一切给人的感觉就像是一场空洞 的表演，既没有实际的力度，也让人困惑于特朗普的真实意图。 或许，特朗普的这一举动意在给自己一个缓冲期。根据分析，0%的税率与未来18个月的等待期，实际上是在为即将进行的301调查交代，让外界觉得"美国 仍在发声"。然而，这种"放你一马"的策略又反映出更深的无奈。美国经济与中国之间的依赖程度日益加深，特朗普或许意识到，随意加税不仅会影响到中 国，也会对本国经济造成巨大的冲击，最终受害的还是普通消费者。 从另一个角度来看，特朗普的举动还暴露出他内心的焦虑。在新一轮的贸易战中，中国早已不再是那 ...

近日，美国国会通过的"2026财年国防授权法案"签署成法，其中包含涉华消极内容。该法案延续 一贯遏华基调，渲染"中国威胁"，粗暴干涉中国内政，损害中方核心利益，我们对此表示强烈不 满和坚决反对。 新华社北京12月25日电 12月25日，针对美方将"2026财年国防授权法案"签署成法，全国人大外事 委员会发言人许东发表谈话。全文如下： 我们希望美方客观理性看待中国发展和中美关系，与中方相向而行，共同落实好中美元首釜山会 晤达成的重要共识。我们强烈敦促美方摒弃零和思维与意识形态偏见，不得实施上述法案中的涉 华消极条款。如美方一意孤行，中方将依法采取有力措施，坚决捍卫国家主权安全发展利益。 ...