事件点评： 来源：中国能源网 联储证券近日发布贵金属行业点评：2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的结果裁决特朗普政府依据《国际 紧急经济权力法》所征收大规模关税违法；24日，美国国土安全部证实，停止收取相关进口商品关税； 为取代被裁定违法的关税，特朗普20日签署文件，对来自所有国家和地区的商品加征10%的关税；21日 再次宣布将这一关税税率提高至15%，上述决定均依据《1974年贸易法》第122条款发布，该条款允许 联邦政府最多征收150天关税，延长须经国会同意。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 行业事件： 2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的结果裁决特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》所征收大规模关税 违法；24日，美国国土安全部证实，停止收取相关进口商品关税；为取代被裁定违法的关税，特朗普20 日签署文件，对来自所有国家和地区的商品加征10%的关税；21日再次宣布将这一关税税率提高至 15%，上述决定均依据《1974年贸易法》第122条款发布，该条款允许联邦政府最多征收150天关税，延 长须经国会同意。 短期来看，金价有望延续震荡偏强走势。尽管美国最高法院对关税问题做出裁决，但特朗普政府迅速推 出替代性关税 ...

行业事件： 2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的结果裁决特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》所征收大规模关税 违法；24日，美国国土安全部证实，停止收取相关进口商品关税；为取代被裁定违法的关税，特朗普20 日签署文件，对来自所有国家和地区的商品加征10%的关税；21日再次宣布将这一关税税率提高至 15%，上述决定均依据《1974年贸易法》第122条款发布，该条款允许联邦政府最多征收150天关税，延 长须经国会同意。 事件点评： 此次关税政策的反复，本质上是美国国内政治制衡机制在政治周期关键节点上的阶段性反映。随着特朗 普开启第二任期，关税政策不仅构成其对外经济战略的核心支柱，更成为其拓展外交空间、深度介入地 缘政治博弈的关键工具。进入2026年中期选举年，特朗普政府面临的国内政治压力逐步凸显。最新民调 数据显示，其当前支持率已回落至40%左右，相较于2025年上任初期出现较为明显的下滑。在这一背景 下，美国最高法院就关税问题做出的最终裁定，可被解读为建制派力量在特定政治节点对特朗普政府施 加的制度性制约。然而，从中长期视角来看，关税作为特朗普政府施政体系中的重要政策工具，其战略 地位难以被轻易削弱或放弃。本次裁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10th China Manufacturing Power Conference emphasizes the theme "Rooted in Reality, Moving Towards Innovation," focusing on the high-quality development path of China's manufacturing industry during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, marking a critical juncture in the "Made in China 2025" initiative [1] Group 1 - The conference was successfully held on December 28, 2025, at the Wanda Vista Hotel in Beijing, organized by the China Manufacturing Power Conference Committee and the China Manufacturing Think Tank [1] - The event aims to explore the high-quality development of China's manufacturing industry in the context of the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, as well as the conclusion of the "Made in China 2025" action plan [1] Group 2 - Renowned economist Ma Guangyuan delivered a keynote speech titled "The Future of Chinese Manufacturing and Supply Chains under the Super Cycle," highlighting that the Chinese economy should be viewed within a larger super cycle rather than just annual performance [3] - Ma pointed out that the Chinese economy is entering a new super cycle influenced by factors such as the "Trump 2.0 tariff war," artificial intelligence, and the wave of de-globalization [3] - He identified four key forces that will shape the future global landscape: US-China relations, Chinese manufacturing, the restructuring of global supply chains, and artificial intelligence [3] - Over the next five years, China needs to undergo five major transformations: shifting from investment-driven to innovation-driven growth, transitioning from a manufacturing powerhouse to a consumer powerhouse, upgrading from low-end to high-end manufacturing, moving from an export-oriented economy to one focused on domestic demand, and addressing social security gaps to build a welfare state [3]

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasizes the need for China to transition into a new economic cycle driven by innovation and domestic consumption, moving away from traditional manufacturing and export reliance [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China is entering a new "super cycle" influenced by artificial intelligence and de-globalization, necessitating a departure from past economic models [3][5]. - The future global landscape will be shaped by three main forces: Chinese manufacturing, the restructuring of global supply chains, and advancements in artificial intelligence [3][5]. Group 2: Five Key Transformations - China must shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth [3][5]. - The country needs to evolve from being a manufacturing powerhouse to becoming a consumer-driven economy [3][5]. - There is a need to upgrade from low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing [3][5]. - China should transition from being an export-oriented economy to one focused on domestic demand [3][5]. - Addressing social security shortcomings is essential for building a robust welfare state [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing a significant bull market driven by multiple factors, with prices reaching historical highs by Q4 2025, presenting both opportunities and challenges for market participants [1][3]. Group 1: Driving Logic - The bull market in precious metals is a result of three main factors: the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, historical mismatches in supply and demand, and advancements in trading technology [2][3]. - The first factor involves the interplay between the reconfiguration of the global monetary system and the rise of protectionism, leading to a depreciation of currency purchasing power relative to physical assets, with gold being revalued as a key asset against inflation and geopolitical risks [3]. - The second factor highlights the shift of silver from a precious metal to a strategic key mineral, driven by increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and technological advancements that raise silver consumption in solar cells [3]. - The third factor emphasizes the diversification of market participants and the complexity of trading instruments, which allows for global resonance in response to market changes [3]. Group 2: Behavioral Finance Perspective - The acceleration in precious metal prices can be understood through behavioral finance, where market mechanisms react to paradigm shifts, leading to rapid price corrections [4][5]. - The "anchoring effect" becomes ineffective as prices break through historical highs, allowing for a new price discovery phase characterized by high premiums [5]. - The reversal of the "disposition effect" occurs as traders, fearing missing out, hold onto positions rather than selling early, leading to forced short-covering that drives prices higher [5][6]. - The "representativeness bias" accelerates market consensus formation, as traders begin to view rapid price increases as the new norm, leading to a swift transition from skepticism to certainty [6]. Group 3: Rational Response Strategies - Market participants are advised to avoid trying to predict market tops and instead focus on maintaining a trend-following discipline while implementing dynamic profit-taking strategies [7][9]. - Dynamic profit-taking is essential to protect gains while allowing for continued participation in upward trends, with strategies involving trailing stop-loss orders [9]. - Utilizing non-linear tools, such as buying out-of-the-money put options, can help manage risk while preserving core positions, aligning with the investment philosophy of cutting losses and letting profits run [9]. Conclusion - The precious metals market in 2025 reflects long-term changes in monetary credit and industrial structure, requiring traders to understand macro narratives and respect market mechanisms while adhering to disciplined risk management practices [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for Chinese companies going overseas amid rising tariffs and trade tensions, emphasizing the need for effective compliance, risk management, and tax planning to navigate the complexities of international expansion [1]. Group 1: Overseas Investment and Financing Approval - The approval process is crucial for the successful initiation of overseas projects, requiring companies to understand both domestic and international approval procedures in detail [2][3]. Group 2: Core Risk Management for Chinese Companies Going Abroad - Companies must prioritize awareness of political environments, legal differences, and data security risks, developing strategies to mitigate these risks for stable overseas operations [5][6]. Group 3: Compliance Management for Overseas Operations - Compliance is fundamental for establishing a presence abroad, with violations potentially leading to significant fines or market exclusion. Companies should stay updated on compliance requirements and build a robust compliance system [7][8]. Group 4: Tax Considerations for Overseas Expansion - Tax issues directly impact profitability, and effective tax planning can enhance competitiveness. Companies need to focus on tax treatment in areas such as equity structure, cross-border transactions, and profit distribution [12][14]. Group 5: Popular Destinations for Overseas Expansion - Selecting the right destination is critical, as different regions present unique opportunities and challenges. Companies should gather comprehensive information about target countries, including policies, markets, and cultures, to align with their strengths [15][16]. Group 6: Overview of Overseas Expansion - A holistic understanding of compliance, risk, and tax issues is essential for building an effective overseas strategy, enabling companies to integrate resources and identify their positioning in the global market [17][18]. Group 7: Strategic Advantages of Going Abroad - Companies can benefit from foreign government incentives, resource acquisition, technology cooperation, and diversified operations, which can help in restructuring supply chains and enhancing competitiveness [20]. Group 8: Key Elements and Main Models for Overseas Expansion - Key factors include funding sources, personnel allocation, and major pathways for expansion, such as project agreements and overseas mergers and acquisitions [20][22]. Group 9: Compliance Challenges and Guidelines - Companies face new compliance challenges and should adhere to national guidelines and international standards to ensure effective compliance management [25][26]. Group 10: Tax Planning and Risk Mitigation - Effective tax planning involves understanding the implications of equity structure, cross-border transactions, and the regulatory environment in target countries to safeguard investments and optimize tax liabilities [28][29]. Group 11: Course Offerings - The article promotes a comprehensive course on overseas expansion strategies, covering various aspects such as compliance, tax, and investment approval processes, aimed at equipping companies with the necessary tools for successful international operations [22][23].

Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is currently influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade policies, leading to a re-evaluation of risk by investors [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to levels seen a month ago, indicating a "mean reversion" that masks deeper market anxieties related to trade negotiations [3][4] - The recent comments from President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign films have added complexity to the already tense trade discussions, making it difficult for the market to establish a coherent narrative [3][4] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a chain reaction due to policy uncertainties, as evidenced by the decline in U.S. stock indices, ending a nine-day streak of gains for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming two-day meeting is anticipated to maintain short-term interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range, but there is a notable expectation for a rate cut by December, reflecting a tension between market expectations and reality [3][4] - The long-end yield movements suggest a shift in market logic, as the 10-year Treasury yield is becoming a reflection of trade policies, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions rather than being directly controlled by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming supply of U.S. Treasuries, including $42 billion in 10-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year notes, will test market resilience amid growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and geopolitical risks [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is seen as a "preventive tax" on global capital flows, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's inaction, leading to market pain during this policy vacuum [5] - The ongoing tensions in global trade and financial pricing mechanisms are creating a fragile balance that could be disrupted, posing challenges for modern financial markets in the face of de-globalization [5]