著名经济学家、民建中央经济委员会副主任马光远以《超级大周期下中国制造和供应链的未来》为主题作主旨演讲。他表示，中国经济不能以年份计算，不 能只看今年怎么样、明年怎么样，一定要放在一个大周期中来看。中国经济正因特朗普2.0"关税战"、人工智能、逆全球化浪潮等因素进入全新超级大周 期。过去辉煌的激情四射的年代结束了，我们现在面临的是一个全新的周期，我们必须与过去告别。那么未来是什么？未来决定全球格局的仍然是四个力 量，第一是中美关系，第二是中国制造，第三是全球供应链的重构，第四是人工智能。下一个五年，中国需要五大转变，从投资驱动转向创新驱动、从生产 大国迈向消费大国、从低端制造升级到高端制造、从出口大国转变为内需大国，以及弥补社保短板，建设民生大国。 2025年12月28日，由中国制造强国年会组委会、中制智库主办的第十届中国制造强国年会在北京万达文华酒店成功召开。本届年会以"实体为根 向新而 行"为主题，立足"十四五""十五五"规划承前启后、《中国制造2025》行动纲领十年收官的关键节点，探讨"十五五"时期中国制造业高质量发展之路。 马光远 著名经济学家、民建中央经济委员会副主任 ...

专题：第十届中国制造强国年会 12月28日，"第十届中国制造强国年会"在北京举行，主题为"实体为根，向新而行"。著名经济学家、民 建中央经济委员会副主任马光远出席并演讲。 马光远以《超级大周期下中国制造和供应链的未来》为主题作主旨演讲。他表示，中国经济不能以年份 计算，不能只看今年怎么样、明年怎么样，一定要放在一个大周期中来看。 "中国经济正因人工智能、逆全球化浪潮等因素进入全新超级大周期，必须与过去告别。"他强调，未来 决定全球格局的仍然是几个力量：第一是中国制造，第二是全球供应链的重构，第三是人工智能。 专题：第十届中国制造强国年会 12月28日，"第十届中国制造强国年会"在北京举行，主题为"实体为根，向新而行"。著名经济学家、民 建中央经济委员会副主任马光远出席并演讲。 马光远以《超级大周期下中国制造和供应链的未来》为主题作主旨演讲。他表示，中国经济不能以年份 计算，不能只看今年怎么样、明年怎么样，一定要放在一个大周期中来看。 "中国经济正因人工智能、逆全球化浪潮等因素进入全新超级大周期，必须与过去告别。"他强调，未来 决定全球格局的仍然是几个力量：第一是中国制造，第二是全球供应链的重构，第三是人工智能 ...

编者按：今年以来，全球金属价格普遍上涨，白银涨幅超过170%，黄金涨幅超过70%，铂涨幅达 133%，钯涨幅为95%，沪铜涨幅为37%，等等。全球贸易摩擦、地缘政治风险和基本面矛盾共振，已经 重塑了整个行业格局。期货日报推出"破译金属新主线"栏目，全面梳理金属"牛市"脉络，敬请关注。 2025年四季度，贵金属价格加速上涨，屡创历史新高。对市场参与者而言，这不仅是多重力量共振带来 的历史性机遇，更是对交易体系与风险控制能力的严峻考验。在波澜壮阔的行情中，如何既不踏空趋 势，又能规避极端波动带来的风险，是当下的核心命题。 驱动逻辑：三大因素共同作用 2025年的贵金属牛市，广度、深度与驱动逻辑的复杂性远超历史上单纯的周期性上涨，这是三大因素共 同作用的结果。 第一，全球货币信用体系重塑与逆全球化浪潮的共振。本轮贵金属行情的宏观基础，已不仅仅是去美元 化叙事，而是货币信用稀释与地缘格局重构的共同结果。后疫情时代，海外央行资产负债表的扩张导致 全球长期流动性泛滥，货币购买力相对实物资产的贬值成为长期趋势。另外，全球贸易保护主义抬头， 标志着效率优先的全球化时代正在经历重构。在新秩序中，黄金作为核心"无对手盘资产"，价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for Chinese companies going overseas amid rising tariffs and trade tensions, emphasizing the need for effective compliance, risk management, and tax planning to navigate the complexities of international expansion [1]. Group 1: Overseas Investment and Financing Approval - The approval process is crucial for the successful initiation of overseas projects, requiring companies to understand both domestic and international approval procedures in detail [2][3]. Group 2: Core Risk Management for Chinese Companies Going Abroad - Companies must prioritize awareness of political environments, legal differences, and data security risks, developing strategies to mitigate these risks for stable overseas operations [5][6]. Group 3: Compliance Management for Overseas Operations - Compliance is fundamental for establishing a presence abroad, with violations potentially leading to significant fines or market exclusion. Companies should stay updated on compliance requirements and build a robust compliance system [7][8]. Group 4: Tax Considerations for Overseas Expansion - Tax issues directly impact profitability, and effective tax planning can enhance competitiveness. Companies need to focus on tax treatment in areas such as equity structure, cross-border transactions, and profit distribution [12][14]. Group 5: Popular Destinations for Overseas Expansion - Selecting the right destination is critical, as different regions present unique opportunities and challenges. Companies should gather comprehensive information about target countries, including policies, markets, and cultures, to align with their strengths [15][16]. Group 6: Overview of Overseas Expansion - A holistic understanding of compliance, risk, and tax issues is essential for building an effective overseas strategy, enabling companies to integrate resources and identify their positioning in the global market [17][18]. Group 7: Strategic Advantages of Going Abroad - Companies can benefit from foreign government incentives, resource acquisition, technology cooperation, and diversified operations, which can help in restructuring supply chains and enhancing competitiveness [20]. Group 8: Key Elements and Main Models for Overseas Expansion - Key factors include funding sources, personnel allocation, and major pathways for expansion, such as project agreements and overseas mergers and acquisitions [20][22]. Group 9: Compliance Challenges and Guidelines - Companies face new compliance challenges and should adhere to national guidelines and international standards to ensure effective compliance management [25][26]. Group 10: Tax Planning and Risk Mitigation - Effective tax planning involves understanding the implications of equity structure, cross-border transactions, and the regulatory environment in target countries to safeguard investments and optimize tax liabilities [28][29]. Group 11: Course Offerings - The article promotes a comprehensive course on overseas expansion strategies, covering various aspects such as compliance, tax, and investment approval processes, aimed at equipping companies with the necessary tools for successful international operations [22][23].

Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is currently influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade policies, leading to a re-evaluation of risk by investors [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to levels seen a month ago, indicating a "mean reversion" that masks deeper market anxieties related to trade negotiations [3][4] - The recent comments from President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign films have added complexity to the already tense trade discussions, making it difficult for the market to establish a coherent narrative [3][4] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a chain reaction due to policy uncertainties, as evidenced by the decline in U.S. stock indices, ending a nine-day streak of gains for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming two-day meeting is anticipated to maintain short-term interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range, but there is a notable expectation for a rate cut by December, reflecting a tension between market expectations and reality [3][4] - The long-end yield movements suggest a shift in market logic, as the 10-year Treasury yield is becoming a reflection of trade policies, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions rather than being directly controlled by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming supply of U.S. Treasuries, including $42 billion in 10-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year notes, will test market resilience amid growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and geopolitical risks [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is seen as a "preventive tax" on global capital flows, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's inaction, leading to market pain during this policy vacuum [5] - The ongoing tensions in global trade and financial pricing mechanisms are creating a fragile balance that could be disrupted, posing challenges for modern financial markets in the face of de-globalization [5]