证券研究报告 港股通 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 小米发布会：17 系列手机和汽车定制 化服务是重点 2025 年 9 月 26 日│中国香港 科技 年度演讲：坚持持续投入硬科技 小米集团创始人雷军在年度演讲的环节，主要回顾了 2021 年以来，公司在 自研芯片和新能源汽车业务上的发展历程。我们看到近年来，随着小米在研 发的投入不断加大，公司在硬科技和智能制造上取得了实足的发展和进步。 自研芯片领域，小米今年推出了玄界 SoC 芯片，一次流片就获得了成功， 并已经应用在多款手机和平板电脑产品。汽车方面，小米 SU7 ultra，搭载 自研的 V8s 电机，成为了纽北赛道"最速"的四门量产车型。这些都展现 了小米在硬科技（芯片、AI、系统）上取得的进步，我们看好小米在硬科技 上的持续投入，会为"人车家"全生态的发展打下坚实的基础。 盈利预测和估值：目标价 65.4 港币，维持"买入"评级 考虑到公司手机产品竞争力及汽车业务毛利率稳定提升，我们维持公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预测 443.1/526.3/671.2 亿元，维持基于 SOTP 估 值法的目标价 65.4 港币，对应 30 倍 202 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi's decision to skip the Mi 16 and launch the Mi 17 series reflects a significant shift in its product naming strategy, symbolizing a leap in product development and alignment with its automotive product line [1][3][12] - The Mi 17 series includes three models: Mi 17, Mi 17 Pro, and Mi 17 Pro Max, all featuring the new Surge OS 3 and the fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 processor, which enhances performance and efficiency [3][5][10] Product Features - The fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 processor, built on TSMC's 3nm process, offers a 25% increase in multi-core performance and a 30% improvement in GPU efficiency, with AnTuTu scores expected to exceed 2.2 million [5][8] - Mi 17 is positioned as the "strongest standard flagship," featuring a 6.36-inch 2K+ flexible display, 1-120Hz adaptive refresh rate, and peak brightness over 3000 nits, along with a robust camera system [5][9] - Mi 17 Pro is described as the "most exquisite small-sized technology imaging flagship," with a 6.5-inch screen and advanced camera capabilities [7][9] - Mi 17 Pro Max boasts cutting-edge technology, including a 6.8-inch 2K+ full-screen display and enhanced camera features, such as a 50MP periscope lens [7][9] Performance Comparison - Xiaomi showcased a performance comparison between the Mi 17 and Apple's iPhone 17, highlighting that the Mi 17's battery life is nearly double that of the iPhone 17, with performance close to the iPhone 17 Pro [8][9] - The Mi 17 Pro Max introduces a "ring cooling pump cooling system," which maintains stable performance during prolonged high-load usage [8][9] Software and Ecosystem - The Mi 17 series is pre-installed with Surge OS 3, enhancing cross-device connectivity and featuring the "Xuanjie chip" for distributed computing, which may extend to automotive and smart home applications [10][11] - The AI subsystem "Xiaomi Brain" 2.0 supports real-time translation and content generation, providing a competitive edge in AI applications [10] Market Strategy and Pricing - The starting price for the Mi 17 series is set at 4499 RMB, directly competing with Apple's iPhone 17 series, with the Pro and Pro Max models priced between 5000-6000 RMB and 6000-7000 RMB, respectively [12][14] - Xiaomi's strategy of "full series upgrade" aims to reshape the high-end market landscape, positioning its standard model against competitors' Pro versions [14][15] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Xiaomi's stock price surged over 5%, indicating strong market approval of its high-end strategy [15]

新华社北京9月26日电（记者丁雅雯）25日晚，小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军在京进行年度演 讲，并发布了小米17系列、小米平板8系列等旗舰产品。这场发布会不仅是小米旗舰产品的亮相，更是 其硬核科技实力的集中展示。 与此同时，小米自主研发的3nm旗舰SoC芯片"玄戒O1"成功落地，性能体验跻身全球第一梯队。这一突 破，是我国在高端芯片领域实现自主可控能力建设的重要进展。 更为深远的是，小米成功构建了横跨手机、汽车、智能家居的"人车家全生态"格局。这并非业务的简单 叠加，而是以技术为基石、以生态为平台，对未来智能生活方式的系统性重构，预示着小米的竞争范式 从单一产品竞争升级到生态系统竞争。 "从迷茫到蜕变，有时隔着万水千山，有时只隔了一层窗户纸。只要持续努力、不断成长，每个人、每 个团队，都有机会'逆天改命'。"雷军这番话，道出了我国制造业爬坡过坎的关键密码。 从小米17系列的技术突破，到芯片领域的自主攻坚，再到生态格局的构建，小米的转型之路是我国制造 业实现能级跃升的缩影。 图为小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军2025年度演讲现场（受访单位供图） "互联网是机会驱动的，而硬核科技公司是实力驱动的。我们意识 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has undergone significant transformations over the past five years, focusing on technology, organizational management, user perception, and ecological strategies, aiming to build a new corporate framework through chips, car manufacturing, and product capabilities. The emphasis is on continuous effort and growth as a means to achieve change and hope [2]. Group 1 - Key Point 1: Xiaomi's journey began with a review of its ten-year history, leading to a strategic shift towards a "technology-based" approach [3][4]. - Key Point 2: The company has restarted its self-research chip project, "Xuanjie," after previous attempts faced challenges, with the first successful chip, "Xuanjie O1," set to launch in May 2024 [7][8][6]. Group 2 - Key Point 3: Xiaomi has introduced three car models targeting different market segments, emphasizing differentiation and performance, with the SU7 Ultra aiming to compete with luxury brands like Porsche and Tesla [9][10]. - Key Point 4: The high-end product line, including the Xiaomi 17 series, reflects a commitment to compete with top-tier brands, integrating advanced technology and a comprehensive ecosystem covering "people, cars, and homes" [11][12][13]. Group 3 - Key Point 5: Xiaomi is implementing customized services for its vehicles, offering personalized options similar to luxury brands, while maintaining a competitive pricing strategy [14][15].

其他产品方面，小米电视S Pro 85 Mini LED 2026 采用全新Mini LED屏幕、独立画质增强芯片、大师画质引擎等高端配置，并创新推出 低反屏和广视角体验，观看更清晰、画质更还原；米家冰箱Pro 微冰鲜双系统法式平嵌，可实现鲜鱼鲜肉零下储存不冻结，同时带来全 自动洁净制冰，满足更多需求；米家三区洗衣机Pro，在标准尺寸下再次创新三筒独立水路分区洗。此外，小米还推出了路由器 BE10000 Pro、音箱小米Sound 2 Max和小米随身蓝牙音箱等新品。 其中，小米17标准版定价4499元起、小米17 Pro定价4999元起，小米17 Pro Max 起步配置12GB+512GB，定价5999元起，现已开始预 售，9月27日10点正式开售；「小米定制服务」10万元起订，首批覆盖小米YU7 Max和小米SU7 Ultra，每月限定40台，9月25日晚十点正 式支付定金开启预售。 本次发布会的多款人车家全生态新品现已开售：小米平板8标准版定价2199元起，小米平板8 Pro定价2799元起。米家三区洗衣机Pro首销 价3999元起；米家冰箱Pro 微冰鲜双系统 法式平嵌560L首销价6399元；小米 ...

据了解，小米17标准版定价4499元起、小米17 Pro定价4999元起，小米17 Pro Max 起步配置 12GB+512GB，定价5999元起，现已开始预售，9月27日10点正式开售；'小米定制服务'10万元起订， 首批覆盖小米YU7 Max和小米SU7 Ultra，每月限定40台，9月25日晚十点正式支付定金开启预售。 本次发布会的多款人车家全生态新品现已开售：小米平板8标准版定价2199元起，小米平板8 Pro定价 2799元起。米家三区洗衣机Pro首销价3999元起；米家冰箱Pro 微冰鲜双系统 法式平嵌560L首销价6399 元；小米电视S Pro Mini LED 2026首销价5199元起，提供65英寸、75英寸、85英寸、98英寸四款尺寸。 Xiaomi 路由器 BE10000 Pro建议零售价1699元，Xiaomi Sound 2 Max建议零售价1999元，Xiaomi 随身蓝 牙音箱建议零售价299元。 今年6月，小米首款SUV车型小米YU7正式发布，定位'豪华高性能SUV'，正式开售18小时锁单量突破 24万台，创造了汽车工业史上的奇迹。在发布会上，雷军介绍了关于小米YU7最新进 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi aims to expand beyond smartphones in India, targeting segments like tablets, wearables, TVs, and eventually home appliances, to create a comprehensive ecosystem brand rather than just a smartphone company [1][2] - The company reported a 30% revenue growth and over 35% profit growth in the last quarter, but faces challenges as many product categories are experiencing a slowdown in sales [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - Xiaomi's market share in India has significantly declined, dropping to 9.6% with a year-on-year shipment decrease of 23.5%, ranking fifth in the market [2][5] - The brand's reliance on a "value-for-money" strategy has led to a perception of being a low-end brand, which has hindered its appeal in the high-end smartphone market [3][6] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Vivo and Samsung have gained market share, with Vivo leading at 16.5% and Samsung at 12.9% in Q2 2024 [5] - Xiaomi's challenges include inventory issues and regulatory scrutiny, which have affected its ability to launch new products in India [6][7] Regulatory and Investment Challenges - Xiaomi has faced legal challenges from Apple and Samsung regarding marketing practices, and regulatory scrutiny from the Indian government, which has frozen significant funds [6][7] - The contribution of Xiaomi's Indian operations to the parent company's revenue has drastically decreased from 45% in 2018 to single digits by 2025, indicating a loss of market attractiveness [7]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's globalization strategy has evolved significantly since its initial foray into Southeast Asia in 2014, with plans to open 10,000 Xiaomi stores overseas in the next five years and launch its automotive business in Europe by 2027, aiming for a comprehensive "human-vehicle-home ecosystem" globally [1][10]. Group 1: Global Expansion Journey - Xiaomi's international journey began in 2014 with its entry into Southeast Asia, followed by successful market penetration in India, where it utilized local e-commerce partnerships to drive sales [2]. - By 2017, Xiaomi had established its presence in Western Europe, becoming one of the top three smartphone brands in the region within a few years [3]. - As of Q2 2025, Xiaomi held a global smartphone market share of 14.7%, ranking among the top three for 20 consecutive quarters, with significant market shares in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America [3]. Group 2: Brand Positioning and Marketing - Initially, Xiaomi's brand positioning overseas mirrored its domestic strategy, focusing on high cost-performance products while appealing to younger consumers through online marketing [3][4]. - The company has successfully transitioned to a high-end market strategy, exemplified by the launch of the Xiaomi 15 Ultra at a starting price of €1499, which achieved a 58% increase in sales compared to its predecessor [5][10]. Group 3: Channel Development and Retail Strategy - Xiaomi employs a dual-channel strategy for overseas expansion, leveraging e-commerce partnerships while also establishing relationships with local telecom operators and retailers [6]. - The company has initiated its new retail strategy abroad, aiming to open 10,000 Xiaomi stores globally within five years, enhancing operational efficiency and data accuracy [6][10]. Group 4: Challenges and Management - Xiaomi faces various challenges in international markets, including cultural and regulatory differences, necessitating a robust management system to navigate complexities [7]. - The company has focused on internal management improvements following a downturn in global business, emphasizing the need for a unique management system tailored to its diverse operations [7]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Supply Chain - The global smartphone market is dominated by three main players: Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi, with Xiaomi's user-centric approach fostering a strong customer base [8]. - Xiaomi's supply chain advantages stem from China's advanced manufacturing capabilities, allowing the company to replicate successful supply chain management practices across new product lines, including its automotive venture [9].

Core Insights - Xiaomi is successfully expanding its retail presence in Southeast Asia, with its flagship store in Bangkok showcasing a unique immersive experience that integrates various smart home products, contributing significantly to its overseas revenue [2][3] - The Southeast Asian smartphone market is competitive, with Xiaomi regaining the top position for the first time in four years, achieving a market share of 19% and selling 470 million units in Q2 2025 [3][4] - Xiaomi's new retail strategy emphasizes high efficiency and improved user experience, with plans to open over 100 new stores in Thailand and Malaysia this year [4][5] Group 1: Retail Strategy - Xiaomi's retail model eliminates intermediaries and utilizes digital management to reduce costs, allowing for consistent pricing across online and offline channels [4] - The company has adopted a hybrid model of direct sales and local agents in Southeast Asia to maintain brand consistency while leveraging local resources [4][5] - The flagship store in Bangkok has become a model for Xiaomi's new retail strategy, showcasing high-end products and a comprehensive ecosystem experience [2][4] Group 2: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaomi's total revenue reached 116 billion yuan, a 30.5% increase year-on-year, with smart home appliances seeing a 66.2% revenue growth [4] - The Xiaomi 15 series saw a 54% year-on-year increase in sales, indicating the success of its high-end smartphone strategy in Southeast Asia [3][4] - The company has sold over 10,000 units of its new home appliances in Southeast Asia since March 2025, with air conditioning units making up a significant portion of sales [3][4] Group 3: Future Plans - Xiaomi aims to establish 1,000 overseas stores in the next five years, positioning new retail as a key strategy for global expansion [5][6] - The company is also planning to export home appliances to Europe and is considering the future export of electric vehicles by 2027 [7][8] - Xiaomi's approach to international markets is categorized into three types: mature markets, emerging markets, and those with recent achievements, each requiring tailored strategies [6][7]

Core Insights - The competition among new energy vehicle manufacturers in China has intensified, with monthly sales data revealing significant shifts in market positions and performance [1][78]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Leap Motor and Xpeng are currently the most likely to achieve their annual sales targets [2]. - NIO and Li Auto have swapped positions in monthly sales, with NIO delivering 31,305 units in August, surpassing Li Auto's 28,529 units for the first time in 34 months [5]. - The sales of Xiaomi vehicles are estimated to be less than half of their annual target, depending on production capacity [3]. - Other brands like Lantu, Avita, and Hongmeng Zhixing have completion rates below 40% [4][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competition is becoming more intense, with Leap Motor achieving 57,066 units sold, marking its sixth consecutive month at the top, while Xpeng reached a historical high of 37,709 units [10]. - The introduction of new large pure electric SUVs has directly impacted the sales performance of NIO and Li Auto [6]. - The launch of the Lido L90 by NIO, priced under 200,000 yuan, significantly contributed to its sales growth [8]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The shift in sales positions reflects a broader strategic competition between different technological routes in the Chinese EV industry [17]. - NIO's all-in approach on pure electric vehicles and its investment in battery swap networks is beginning to show returns, as evidenced by the strong demand for the Lido L90 [21][24]. - Li Auto's reliance on range-extended technology is facing challenges as market competition intensifies, indicating a need for diversification in technology strategies [25][27]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production - The supply chain has become a critical factor in the survival of new energy vehicle companies, with companies like Leap Motor and Xpeng excelling in supply chain management [32][47]. - Leap Motor's focus on in-house development of key technologies has allowed for better cost control and reduced dependency on external suppliers [33][34]. - Xpeng's strategy of collaboration, such as its partnership with Didi for the MONA series, has enabled it to quickly penetrate the market [38][41]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - The performance of Huawei's HarmonyOS in the automotive sector has declined, highlighting the challenges of relying solely on ecosystem partnerships [51][63]. - Xiaomi's reliance on contract manufacturing has led to production bottlenecks, affecting its ability to meet demand [66][68]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on volume to a focus on delivery, production capacity, and cost management, with upcoming Q3 financial reports likely to trigger a new round of valuation differentiation [79][80].