Group 1: Tax System Reform and Economic Impact - The VAT has become the largest tax type in China, maintaining a stable share of 35-40% since 2016, with a compound growth rate of -7.4% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, and 17.0% in 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in growth[3] - In 2024, VAT revenue accounted for 49.5% of local fiscal revenue, the highest in history, reflecting the declining support of land finance for local governments[3] - The average share of VAT revenue in local fiscal income from 2016 to 2022 was 45.3%, increasing to over 49% from 2023, coinciding with a period of negative domestic price levels[3] Group 2: Price Control and Market Dynamics - The current fiscal and tax system may create unreasonable incentives for local governments to stimulate production, which could hinder the establishment of a unified national market[3] - Shifting the consumption tax collection point from production to sales could enhance local governments' focus on consumption, as local sales would directly impact their tax revenue[3] - Optimizing the fiscal and tax system can reduce local governments' supply impulses and increase their emphasis on consumption, potentially alleviating price pressures from both supply and demand sides[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession alongside unexpected monetary policies from major economies[3]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the Chinese medicine sector [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector saw a 1.08% increase last week, with the overall pharmaceutical sector experiencing a general upward trend [2]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.86X, reflecting a slight increase, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 2.31X, also showing a minor rise [3]. - The market for Chinese medicinal materials is currently in a low season, with a slight decline in price indices due to increased rainfall in southern regions [4]. - As of July 12, 2025, three out of five listed companies in the Chinese medicine industry reported positive net profit growth, with the lowest growth rate at 24.3% [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector index closed at 6451.72 points, up 1.08% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical index rose by 1.82% [2][17]. Valuation - The PE ratio (ttm) for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.86X, up 0.29X week-on-week, with a one-year maximum of 30.13X and a minimum of 22.58X. The PB ratio (lf) is 2.31X, up 0.03X, with a one-year maximum of 2.65X and a minimum of 1.99X [3][19]. Industry Trends - The Chinese medicine sector is entering the mid-year reporting season, with a focus on performance metrics such as inventory and accounts receivable [5]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform, indicating potential growth areas within the sector [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong R&D capabilities and unique products, as well as those less affected by price collection policies. Specific companies highlighted are Zhaoli Pharmaceutical, Pizaihuang, and Shouxiangu [10].

Industry Overview - The Chinese medicine sector experienced a decline of 0.32% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector showed mixed performance with a 1.4% increase in the pharmaceutical and biological index [3][4] - The performance of the Chinese medicine sector is relatively weak compared to other pharmaceutical sub-sectors, with chemical pharmaceuticals showing the best performance with a 3.53% increase [3][4] Company Performance - Top-performing companies in the Chinese medicine sector include Kanghui Pharmaceutical, Enwei Pharmaceutical, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and Zhendong Pharmaceutical [4] - Underperforming companies include Wanbangde, Longjin Retreat, Biological Valley, Guangyuyuan, and Jiu Zhitang [4] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.68X, reflecting a decrease of 0.1X week-on-week, with a one-year maximum of 30.13X and a minimum of 22.58X [5] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 2.29X, down 0.01X from the previous week, with a one-year maximum of 2.65X and a minimum of 1.99X [5] - The current PE is at the 29.83% percentile since 2013, while the PB is at the 5.56% percentile during the same period [6] Raw Material Market - The market for raw Chinese medicinal materials is under pressure, with a total index price of 241.57 points, reflecting a 0.7% decrease week-on-week [7] - Among the twelve categories of medicinal materials, five categories saw price increases while seven experienced declines, with the plant leaf category showing the largest drop [7] Policy and Market Dynamics - The third batch of national collection for traditional Chinese medicine began implementation in April 2025, with at least 19 provinces releasing results [8] - The collection involves 20 product groups and 95 products, with 174 selected drugs, indicating a trend towards price rationalization in the sector [8] - There is a need for further optimization of selection rules due to insufficient completion rates in local collections [8] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [9][10][11] - Price governance focuses on the impact of collection and negotiation on drug prices, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [9] - Consumption recovery is driven by macroeconomic improvement and aging population, favoring companies with brand and material advantages [10] - State-owned enterprise reform presents opportunities for performance improvement and efficiency gains in the Chinese medicine sector [11] - Recommended investment targets include Zoli Pharmaceutical, Pian Zai Huang, and Shou Xian Gu, which are expected to benefit from these trends [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese medicine sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing significant profit growth while facing challenges from high inventory and pricing pressures. The outlook for 2025 appears more optimistic due to easing macroeconomic factors and supportive policies [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw major indices rise, with the Chinese Medicine ETF (560080) increasing by 0.19% and trading volume exceeding 26 million yuan, indicating active trading [1]. - Among the 49 constituent stocks of the Chinese Medicine ETF, 24 reported positive net profit growth, representing approximately 49% of the total [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Notable profit growth was observed in companies such as Jilin Aodong (+260%), Jiaying Pharmaceutical (+197%), and Buchang Pharmaceutical (+170%) [3]. - The financial performance of several companies showed varied results, with Jilin Aodong reporting a 27.7% decline in revenue but a 259.8% increase in net profit [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The Chinese medicine industry is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to high baselines and inventory digestion, but a recovery is anticipated in 2025 as macroeconomic conditions improve [5]. - Policy support, including the March 2025 guidelines for enhancing Chinese medicine quality, is expected to stimulate innovation and improve market conditions [5][6]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The current valuation of the Chinese Medicine Index is at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.77, which is below the 74.1% threshold of the past decade, indicating a relatively low valuation [8]. - Investors are encouraged to consider the Chinese Medicine ETF (560080) for potential rebound opportunities in the market [10].

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 基层中医药覆盖面持续扩展，看好基层渗透率提升带来的需求增长 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ上涨 0.8%，医药板块延续反弹态势 1. 《广东联盟中成药集采拟中 选结果公布，独家品种优势明显》 20250127 2. 《四成公司发布业绩预告， 2024行业业绩承压明显》 20250210 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 24/02 24/05 24/08 24/11 沪深300_累计 中药_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -2 | -6 | -17 | | 绝对收益 | 1 | -4 | -4 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：(8621) 50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 上周（2025.02.10-2025.02 ...