低欲望社会

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国家级催婚:“单身税”要来了,影响有多大
虎嗅APP· 2025-06-30 10:22
Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe population crisis, prompting the government to implement a new "Child and Childcare Support Fund" starting April 2026, which will levy an annual tax ranging from 2,400 to 12,000 yen (approximately 120 to 600 RMB) to subsidize families with children [3][5]. Group 1: Population Crisis in Japan - Japan's total population has been declining for 14 consecutive years, with the birth rate dropping below 700,000 last year, marking a new low [9][10]. - The Japanese population, excluding foreigners, has shrunk to 120 million, decreasing by nearly 900,000 in just one year [10][12]. - The country has the lowest birth rate globally and the highest aging rate, with a significant proportion of single individuals [13][14]. Group 2: Government Response and Historical Context - The new tax is perceived as a "universal fertility tax" rather than a "single tax," as it applies to all individuals who pay health insurance, regardless of whether they have children [5][6]. - Historically, various nations have implemented similar taxes on single individuals, including ancient Greece and Rome, as well as the Soviet Union, which had a "childless tax" until 1992 [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges in Stimulating Birth Rates - Despite over 66 trillion yen (approximately 3 trillion RMB) invested in fertility incentives over the past 30 years, Japan's birth rate has not improved significantly [19][24]. - Current support includes a one-time childbirth subsidy of 500,000 yen (about 25,000 RMB) and annual childcare subsidies of 120,000 to 180,000 yen for children aged 0-3 [20][21]. - The societal trend of declining marriage and increasing single-person households complicates the situation, with predictions indicating that by 2035, half of the population aged 15 and above may be single [17][26].
后疫情时代,口罩重塑了日本人
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-28 03:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the psychological dependence of Japanese youth on masks, which has evolved from a health necessity during the pandemic to a psychological barrier even as restrictions ease [1][2][4] - Masks have transitioned from being a physical protective tool to a symbol of safety and emotional management, particularly among young people who feel anxious about revealing their true selves [2][3][10] - The cultural acceptance of mask-wearing in Japan, rooted in social norms and collective behavior, has contributed to the ongoing reliance on masks among the youth, even after the pandemic has subsided [4][5][6] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "mask dependency" is particularly pronounced among the "mask generation," who experienced significant social restrictions during their formative years, leading to challenges in social interactions and emotional expression [7][10] - Educational institutions are beginning to recognize the psychological impact of mask dependency and are implementing innovative strategies to help students overcome their reliance on masks, though challenges remain [8][11] - Addressing mask dependency requires a multifaceted approach involving government, media, and educational systems to promote safe social interactions and mental health support [11][12]
当性萧条来临
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 21:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant decline in consumer spending and entertainment activities in China, particularly related to romantic and sexual engagements, leading to a broader economic impact on various industries [4][15][41]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - There has been a notable drop in consumer activities during the 520 holiday, with reduced sales in flower shops, hotel bookings, and cinema attendance [4][13]. - The traditional consumer segments, particularly women, children, and the elderly, are showing signs of decreased spending, with women experiencing a significant downturn [6][15]. - Entertainment options such as KTV, nightclubs, and cinemas have seen drastic declines, with KTV attendance dropping by 87% [15][16]. Group 2: Shifts in Entertainment Preferences - New entertainment preferences have emerged, with activities like park visits and city walks increasing by 226% and 218% respectively, while traditional forms like dining out and movie-going have plummeted [16]. - The data indicates a shift in leisure activities, with a significant increase in solitary or low-cost activities, suggesting a change in consumer values and social interactions [16][40]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The decline in sexual and romantic engagement is linked to broader economic issues, with companies producing sexual health products like Viagra and condoms facing significant sales drops [17][19][41]. - The overall low desire and low consumption rates are expected to lead to a broader economic downturn, affecting various industries beyond just those directly related to sexual health [41][49].
日本年轻人最爱逛的宝藏街区,不欢迎品牌连锁店
创业家· 2025-05-01 09:45
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "involution" in consumer culture, highlighting how businesses often replicate each other, leading to a lack of uniqueness and excitement in shopping experiences [4][20]. Group 1: Examples of Involution - Many famous shopping streets in China look almost identical, offering the same local snacks and souvenirs, which detracts from the authentic local experience [2]. - Renowned shopping centers also exhibit a high degree of similarity, with luxury brands and common products dominating the landscape, making shopping feel monotonous [3][4]. Group 2: Causes of Involution - Involution occurs because businesses tend to engage in the same practices, leading to a homogenized market [5][20]. - The article references the work of Japanese sociologist Minoru Miura, who emphasizes the importance of unique offerings in combating this trend [5][20]. Group 3: Case Study of Shimokitazawa - Shimokitazawa, a vibrant Tokyo neighborhood, initially saw a decline in popularity due to the influx of chain stores, which made the area less distinctive [10][11]. - To regain its charm, the community began to reject chain stores and welcomed unique local shops, which successfully revitalized the area [12][15]. Group 4: Unique Business Strategies - The article highlights a Tommy flagship store in Tokyo that offers exclusive items not available in other locations, demonstrating the value of uniqueness in retail [16][17]. - It argues that in a world filled with sameness, distinctiveness is a rare and valuable resource [19]. Group 5: Learning from Japan - The article promotes a study trip to Japan, focusing on how the country has addressed low-growth challenges and the emergence of unique business models in a "low-desire society" [20][25]. - It suggests that understanding Japan's approach to consumer needs and societal changes can provide insights for future business strategies in China [20][25].
结婚人数再次下降,国家出手了
虎嗅APP· 2025-04-27 13:10
以下文章来源于国民经略 ,作者凯风 婚姻乃人生头等大事,许多人却不当回事了。 日前,民政部发布最新数据,2025年一季度全国结婚登记181万对,较去年同期减少15.9万对,相比10年前高峰时期少了近一半。 这不是结婚人数第一次下降。在刚过去的2024年,全国结婚登记数为610.6万对,创下1980年以来的最低纪录。 去年结婚人数下降被认为是"龙年无春,不适合结婚"的结果,但今年走势足以说明, 文化只是微不足道的因子,结婚意愿下降才是更大的难题。 结婚是生育的前置动作,如果年轻人连婚都不结了,何谈生娃,又何谈买房? 面对这一问题,从国家到地方,全部出手了。 01 零门槛结婚,正在成为现实。 日前,新修订的《婚姻登记条例》公布,自2025年5月10日起施行,祭出了"结婚全国通办+取消户口本"的组合拳。 这是继2017年全面取消9元婚姻登记工本费以来,又一个前所未有的大动作。 全国通办,意味着结婚不用再回老家,打破地域、户籍限制,让结婚登记在全国畅通无阻。 过去无论结婚还是离婚,都需要回到一方的户籍所在地办理,但在人口大流动的当下,早已不合时宜。 取消户口本,意味着只要一张身份证,随时随地都能登记结婚,过去因父母反 ...
中美关税战的祸首在美国,但答案可能就在日本
创业家· 2025-04-26 09:27
以下文章来源于i黑马 ,作者i黑马 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 事实上,作为世界工厂的中国,一定会发生贸易战。 早在 2018 年以后已经是这样了,贸易战、金融战、科技战。 如果贸易战再打下去,那么就被迫做科技升级、内需升级。 中国庞大的生产能力,要么消化在国内,要么出海。 日本在 80 年代作为世界工厂, 也 跟美国发生了惨烈的贸易战。 这让日本整个 80 年代 和90 年代,都处于一个非常痛苦的过程。 后来,日本就发生了一个重大变化, 从一个日本变成"两个日本"。 一个以丰田的商社、外贸型的公司为代表,走了全球化路线,他们开始慢慢到美国去开工厂, 到发达国家去做公司,就是所谓的" 出海 "。 但是,大部分日本的生产能力,还是回到了国内。 于是, 出现了一个针对老龄化、低消费,进而催生了新服务业态、新产业业态,来 满足 1亿 日本国民消费和生活需求,外界称之为" 内需 的日本 "。 也就是,后期的日本有" 两台发动 机 "在运转。 当时的日本跟我们现在很相似,出现了债务危机、老龄化、低欲望、孤独经济。 这一切出来以后,日本的产业形态,也随着国民的形态变化,发生了一次升级。 但不是说,就大家窝在一起 ...
去过日本才明白:内卷的尽头,不是拼低价,而是……
创业家· 2025-04-24 09:56
到底什么叫做卷? 内容来源:刘润公众号(runliu-pub) 举几个例子, 中国好几个非常知名的风情街,看上去是不是长得几乎一模一样? 我们去风情街,不就是为了尝一尝本地的特色美食,买一些本地的特色纪念品,体验下本地的 原生原味吗? 但是, 今天的风情街都是一样的臭豆腐,一样的玻璃珠,一样的砖瓦墙。 我们再看 中国四个非常著名的购物中心,也非常雷同。 我们去购物中心,你会发现一楼几乎是同样的奢侈品,楼上几乎是同样的服装品牌,电影院放 着是同样的电影,地下的超市卖的是同样的日用品。 今天的逛购物中心,已经变成了一个换个地方去买同样的东西的无聊游戏,这就是内卷。 为什么会卷?是因为大家都做着同样的事情。 三浦展老师 是非常著名的日本社会心理学家, 他写过一些大家可能听说过的书,比如 《孤独 消费论》、 《第四消费时代》、《下流社会》 等。 老师跟我们分享了很多,但是只有当他聊起 "下北泽" 这个地方的时候,两个眼睛才开始放 光。 下北泽,是在东京的一个社区,这个社区有两条地铁线经过,很多集市都在这个地方。 这让下北泽一直都是一个非常热闹的集市,非常热闹的社区。 但是也因为这个原因,越来越多的加盟连锁店进入到了下 ...
去过日本才明白:内卷的尽头,不是拼低价,而是……
创业家· 2025-04-21 09:45
今天的逛购物中心,已经变成了一个换个地方去买同样的东西的无聊游戏,这就是内卷。 为什么会卷?是因为大家都做着同样的事情。 内容来源:刘润公众号(runliu-pub) 到底什么叫做卷? 举几个例子, 中国好几个非常知名的风情街,看上去是不是长得几乎一模一样? 我们去风情街,不就是为了尝一尝本地的特色美食,买一些本地的特色纪念品,体验下本地的 原生原味吗? 但是, 今天的风情街都是一样的臭豆腐,一样的玻璃珠,一样的砖瓦墙。 我们再看 中国四个非常著名的购物中心,也非常雷同。 我们去购物中心,你会发现一楼几乎是同样的奢侈品,楼上几乎是同样的服装品牌,电影院放 着是同样的电影,地下的超市卖的是同样的日用品。 三浦展老师 是非常著名的日本社会心理学家, 他写过一些大家可能听说过的书,比如 《孤独 消费论》、《第四消费时代》、《下流社会》 等。 老师跟我们分享了很多,但是只有当他聊起 "下北泽" 这个地方的时候,两个眼睛才开始放 光。 下北泽,是在东京的一个社区,这个社区有两条地铁线经过,很多集市都在这个地方。 这让下北泽一直都是一个非常热闹的集市,非常热闹的社区。 但是也因为这个原因,越来越多的加盟连锁店进入到了下北 ...
大国人口:少子老龄化时代的新挑战与新机遇
泽平宏观· 2024-12-16 13:22
文:任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要,又充满争议;既事关国家兴衰,又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对,在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量,势大力沉,是典型的"灰犀牛",人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 一、中国视角:少子老龄化时代来临,人口变迁带来哪些挑战和机遇 人口周期是指人口经历老一代陆续死亡、新一代不断出生、世代更替的人口再生产过程及 其引发的经济社会变化。个体生命周期的加总成为人口周期,主要表现为生育率下滑、老龄化 加重、人力资本水平提高、人口迁移从城市化到都市圈城市群化等特征。 少子老龄化带来一系列重大而深远的影响和挑战,比如经济潜在增速下降、储蓄投资率下 降、劳动力成本上升、创新创业活力下降、资产估值中枢下行、社会负担加重等。 过去,中 国依靠庞大且年轻的人口红利和高储蓄投资率带来的高资本投入,支撑改革开放后经济的快速 增长。2010年,"民工荒"、劳动年龄人口占比见顶标志着中国刘易斯拐点出现,人口红利消 失,经济增速换挡。 当前中国人口形势严峻,具体表现为十大特征: (1)总人口14.1亿,开始持续负增长; (2 ...