Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the US AAA credit rating, leading to a decline in US stock index futures and the dollar, while pushing up US Treasury yields [1][2] - The 30-year Treasury yield reached a critical level of 5%, and the dollar index fell below 101, dropping over 0.5% [1] - Despite concerns, some analysts suggest that the recent sell-off in US Treasuries and the dollar is a rare market reaction to perceived fiscal recklessness [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Williams noted that there is no significant evidence of large-scale capital outflows from US assets, despite market uncertainties [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and HSBC view the downgrade as a potential buying opportunity, with expectations of a rebound in the S&P 500 index [4][5] - The correlation between stock returns and bond yields has decreased significantly, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]

穆迪评级下调了包括美国银行和摩根大通在内的一些大型银行的存款评级，理由是上周五美国评级被下 调，以及政府支持这些企业的能力减弱。穆迪将美国银行、摩根大通和富国银行旗下子公司的长期存款 评级下调一级至Aa2，为第三高级别。此外，穆迪还下调了美国银行和纽约梅隆银行部分子公司的高级 无抵押债务评级，从Aa1下调至Aa2。此外，穆迪还将美国银行、纽约梅隆银行、摩根大通、道富银行 和富国银行部分子公司的长期交易对手风险评级下调一级至Aa2。这是穆迪主权信用评级下调引发连锁 反应的最新例证。穆迪取消了美国的最高信用评级，将其下调一级至Aa1，并将预算赤字不断膨胀归咎 于历届政府和国会，称这种现象几乎没有缓解的迹象。 ...

国际金价如坐"过山车"，这是怎么了？ 消息面上，美国发起的贸易战又有升温迹象，黄金作为避险资产已应声上涨。周日，美国财政部长斯科 特・贝森特表示，若各国在90天关税暂停期内未达成贸易协议，关税税率将很快恢复至"对等"水平。贝 森特透露，美国正重点与18个"重要"贸易伙伴敲定协议，但未说明关税恢复"对等"税率的具体速度。 影响国际金价走势的另一个因素是，周末穆迪将美国信用评级下调，增加了市场的担忧情绪。国际信用 评级机构穆迪公司16日宣布，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将其评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 穆迪当日发布公告说，评级下调反映出过去十多年来美国政府债务和利息支付比例升至显著高于拥有类 似评级国家的水平。穆迪认为，持续的大规模财政赤字将进一步推高政府债务和利息支出负担。与美国 以往以及其他高评级主权国家相比，美国财政状况很可能会恶化。 世界黄金协会发布的数据显示，今年第一季度，全球央行净购入黄金243.7吨，购金力度较上一季度 （365吨）已显著下调。国际投行对于黄金预期也出现了分化。 短短一个月，国际金价从历史高点3500美元/盎司下跌了近 ...

在美国财政部最新的半年度外汇报告中，日本和韩国均被列入其外汇行为监视名单之中。 智通财经APP获悉，美国和日本本周可能举行汇率谈判，对冲基金和长期投资者正重新押注日元走强。 日本财务大臣加藤胜信5月16日表示，他将寻求本周与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特举行汇率谈判的机 会，外界猜测唐纳德·特朗普政府对美元走软持开放态度。 出于对美国不断膨胀的预算赤字和债务的担忧，穆迪评级上周五将美国政府的信用评级从Aaa下调至 Aa1。受该消息影响，美元兑日元汇率一度下跌0.6%，至144.81。 上周有消息称，美国和韩国在本月早些时候的贸易谈判中讨论了汇率问题，包括日元在内的几种亚洲货 币出现反弹。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示，截至5月13日当周，杠杆基金的日元多头合约达到24741 份，为2019年9月以来的最高水平。美元兑日元在5月12日升至逾五周高位148.65，但这似乎为一些基金 提供了在有吸引力的价位卖出该货币对的机会。 野村国际驻伦敦的10国集团现货交易主管Antony Foster表示："我们看到对冲基金和长期投资者都在抛 售美元兑日元及其他日元交叉货币对。人们猜测，日本也可能面临让日元升值的 ...

韩国财政部：预计穆迪下调美国评级带来的市场冲击有限；将密切注意金融市场及汇市。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced fluctuations in prices and inventory levels during the week of May 16, with average prices ranging from 78,155 to 78,905 CNY per ton, and macroeconomic factors influencing market sentiment [1] Price and Inventory Summary - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price fluctuated between 78,155 CNY/ton and 78,905 CNY/ton during the week, with a mid-week peak followed by a decline [1] - LME inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,400 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 27,400 tons to 108,100 tons [1] - Domestic social inventory rose by 8,900 tons to 132,000 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 68,800 tons [1] Macroeconomic Factors - A temporary joint statement was issued by China and the U.S., with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on China and China maintaining a 10% tariff on the U.S. [1] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with Japan and the Eurozone, leading to increased market risk sentiment, with U.S. stocks and the dollar rebounding [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on Friday [1] - In April, China's social financing increased by 1.16 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans of 280 billion CNY, and M2-M1 spread widening [1] Mining and Trade Activity - Copper concentrate transaction activity increased, with frequent bidding activities from traders and smelters [1] - The Bisha project bidding results were released, with processing fees stabilizing around -40 USD, and this week's TC price reported at -43.05 USD/ton, slightly down from last week [1] - April copper concentrate imports reached a historical high, but future spot transactions are expected to be sluggish, with TC prices remaining low [1] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Imported copper arrivals slightly increased, while domestic copper arrivals were lower [1] - As copper prices rise, the willingness to sell scrap copper increases, leading to a widening gap between refined and scrap copper prices [1] Consumption Trends - Due to May delivery, monthly differences, and high copper prices, downstream purchasing has been cautious, with demand not being stimulated and only essential purchases being made, resulting in a slight increase in domestic inventory [1] Strategy Outlook - The copper market is viewed as neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 75,000 CNY/ton to 79,500 CNY/ton in the coming week [1] - Arbitrage activities are on hold, with options positioned as short put at 74,000 CNY/ton [1]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increasing government debt and interest burden, marking the removal of U.S. sovereign debt from the "top-tier credit" category by all three major rating agencies [1] - Following the downgrade, an ETF tracking the S&P 500 fell by 1% in after-hours trading, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ.US) dropped by 1.3%, and U.S. Treasury yields rose [1] - The downgrade exacerbates market risks amid President Trump's unpredictable tariff policies, with many Wall Street professionals remaining skeptical about the recent rebound in the S&P 500 index [1] Group 2 - Eric Beiley from Steward Partners indicated that the downgrade serves as a warning signal, suggesting that the U.S. stock market may be nearing its peak [2] - Ivan Feinseth from Tigress Financial Partners noted that the downgrade could negatively impact other sovereign debts, as U.S. debt is considered a benchmark for safety [2] - Dave Mazza from Roundhill Investments mentioned that the market may have already anticipated the downgrade, potentially mitigating its impact compared to the 2011 S&P downgrade [2] Group 3 - Thomas Thornton from Hedge Fund Telemetry expressed concerns about rising bond market rates, which could pose significant risks [2] - Max Gokhman from Franklin Templeton highlighted that the downgrade was not surprising, given the accelerating fiscal plans in Congress and the potential for rising debt servicing costs [2] - Keith Lerner from Truist Advisory Services stated that while the downgrade may not change market dynamics, it provides an excuse for profit-taking and emphasizes the rising deficit concerns [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's is expected to have minimal impact on the bond market, similar to the situation in 2011 when S&P downgraded the US rating, which led to significant market turmoil at that time [1][3][9]. Group 1: Historical Context - In August 2011, S&P downgraded the US from AAA to AA+, causing panic in the market, particularly in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 16 basis points on the downgrade day [2][4]. - The panic in 2011 was driven by concerns that US Treasuries might no longer qualify as eligible collateral due to the downgrade, forcing many institutions to sell off their holdings [2][4]. Group 2: Changes in Market Dynamics - After 2011, contracts were rewritten to classify securities as "government securities," removing specific credit rating requirements, which means that rating changes no longer trigger forced selling or other drastic measures [1][9]. - The downgrade by Fitch in August 2023 to AA+ had almost no effect on the bond market, as the US was already considered a split-rated AA+ country prior to Moody's downgrade [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the 2011 downgrade, despite initial sell-offs, the 10-year Treasury yield fell significantly by 56 basis points within a month, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [7]. - The current market environment is different, as the systemic issues that caused turmoil in 2011 are no longer present, leading to a lack of significant impact from the recent downgrade [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first time all three major rating agencies have rated the U.S. below AAA, coinciding with Republican efforts to pass Trump's tax reform plan [1][2][4] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's announced the downgrade on May 16, following a failed vote in the House Budget Committee on Trump's tax reform proposal, known as the "Beautiful Bill" [1][3] - The downgrade reflects concerns over increasing structural deficits, with Moody's warning that the proposed tax reform could add approximately $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade [4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock index futures fell, and Treasury yields rose, indicating a negative market reaction [2][5] - Analysts believe the downgrade could lead to a market pullback, as it adds to existing uncertainties regarding fiscal policy and economic conditions [5][7] Group 3: Political Context - The timing of the downgrade is seen as significant, occurring just hours after hardline Republicans blocked the tax reform proposal, highlighting the political tensions within the party [3][4] - The failed proposal aimed to extend tax cuts from the 2017 Trump administration, but faced opposition from within the Republican ranks, particularly regarding cuts to Medicaid and green energy tax credits [4]